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Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

MarcusSA posted:

I’ll eat my hat if it launches with an M4. There’s just no way.

It does seem like a weird move at first glance for sure. There's obviously no way to tell until we get the event, but this is my attempt to explain reasons why it could happen:

1) The Vision Pro (as far as we can tell) failing to gain traction even among its ultra-niche V1 demographic could be a bigger deal than it initially seems. Apple is under a huge amount of stress to answer the big question which is where the next revenue stream is coming from.

If the VP did really bad, there would be no way to handwave it away as a simple v1 limited launch and the entire concept of it as a profit center in the next 3-5 years is in major doubt.

Under those conditions, there's a lot of stress for wins on the other skus.

2) The iPad Pro has been struggling like crazy to justify its own iterative updates, and it would be surprising if they didn't redo the form factor given how much room/weight they would save with the OLED panel alone.

So how exactly do you make the upgrade case and justify a new form factor and new utility for the iPad Pro sku?

For weirdos like me the OLED is more than enough but that alone doesn't feel like concrete reason to most people. So what's the new thing? All indications point to the M4 chip being the start of some kind of New Era of Apple AI, whatever that ends up constituting, or how dumb it sounds, the industry is moving that way.

So... the iPad Pro 2024 gets an M3, then like a month or two later they pivot to some kind of AI focus and... it's immediately not part of that future vision? It doesn't get the M4 chip with the AI enhancements?

And in the same model year as a design upgrade? idk it just feels so incredibly weak at a time when Apple really needs some wins. Immediately dumpstering the 2024 pro sku just further demonstrates the growing narrative that the ipad is at maturity and upgrading is pointless.

3) The (excellent!) display on the iPad Pro is being moved down to the Air, which shows a tremendous amount of confidence in the Pro standing on its own. So what does it have? OLED only? Idk about all that. They have to be cooking something.

And finally, we know the sku has been continually delayed. Getting some M4 chips on fab could account for that.

Anyways I'm not saying I'm right, this is just conjecture and speculation. Sorry it ended up so long lol. I'm in silicon valley tech marketing so I have Opinions...

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Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

veni veni veni posted:

So if the new iPad pros end up having oled screens, and that probably means a price bump, I wonder if there will likely be an LCD pro that is cheaper or will the Air 12.9 inch just replace that niche? or will they somehow by the grace of god remain the same price with an oled?

Well. I mean... everything is getting more expensive and silicon as well. A price bump is probably just cost of doing business, separate of other concerns. And as you say, the Air is now getting the extremely good screen currently on the Pro :shrug:

Just out of curiosity, where do you see the market demographic for such a product given what we know? I would personally be shocked if they offered an LCD Pro but I am genuinely interested in what you're cookin' up here!

I will say, if they are actually going with what the rumors suggest (dual layer OLED) that would be absolutely cutting edge tech alone and would no doubt justify a premium, but if there's also an M4 - not saying there is- we could be looking at a substantial price jump.

Or I guess I should say, if they offer even one of those and don't hike the price, that is an effective price cut for the sku and shows where Apple is thinking (basically accepting a margin cut because they don't think the market can support anything more) which is definitely possible given how fragile the value prop on the iPad Pros are.

Taima fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Apr 30, 2024

veni veni veni
Jun 5, 2005


Taima posted:

Just out of curiosity, where do you see the market demographic for such a product given what we know?

I would personally be shocked if they offered an LCD Pro but I am genuinely interested in what you're cookin' up here

Oh you are giving me way too much credit. I'm just a dude who wants an iPad and isn't sure which one to get yet lol.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know
Hah, 100% fair. I can definitely try to help out considering what handful of rumors we know about the new skus. Do you have a budget where price isn't a huge object? If not, how much are you trying to spend?

If you wish to use your iPad primarily for media consumption, and are not super price sensitive, the ultra thin dual layer OLED on offer here (if the rumors are right) is a loving incredible upgrade. This level of tech is basically Apple going to LG and saying "give us the best poo poo you can possibly give us".

And the fact that they're moving the current Pro display down to the Air level indicates they are VERY enthusiastic about this technology as well; that can mean one of three things:

1) The OLED tech is so good that it speaks for itself in terms of differentiation between skus, which is a tremendous vote of confidence.

2) Apple is going to price these new Pro units much more expensively YoY and is effectively creating the Air as the "normal premium sku" for consumers, meaning they can untether the Pro sku from its normal pricing structure and charge hundreds more, which is possible especially if it somehow boasts an M4.

3) There is something else yet to be revealed that would justify the Pro sku even with the Air receiving the current Pro display.

Honestly the Air getting the current Pro display is such an interesting move and I am really curious what it means. It's a bigger deal than I think people realize.

TLDR: I would recommend to almost everyone that they just get the Air with the current Pro display because that is going to be an AWESOME tablet with almost zero downsides (assuming its not too expensive). BUT if you have the funds, the new 2024 Pro could be really exceptional, and at the very least, will be insane for shows and movies.

Btw totally random but I really wish Apple would release a 16:10 version of the 2024 Pro, similar to the Tab S9 Ultra :smith: think how insane that would be for movies and shows


^ but with this new ultra thin OLED tech? That would be nuts :sigh:

Taima fucked around with this message at 00:03 on May 1, 2024

jabro
Mar 25, 2003

July Mock Draft 2014

1st PLACE
RUNNER-UP
got the knowshon


The amount of people who are going to be disappointed on May 7th in this thread is awesome.

veni veni veni
Jun 5, 2005


Spending less is always better, but I'm prepared to spend about a grand. Well, probably a little more cause I want a pencil and a magic keyboard, but the keyboard doesn't have to be day 1. I basically plan on just using it for drawing and regular internet stuff.

I guess that's what is confusing to me about it. M3, M4 all means nothing to me. I don't even know what kind of benefits a more powerful ipad is going to do for me. I just don't want something that'll buckle under a big art project. Chances are Ill go with a new air. The only dealbreaker for me is I want the big screen really.

Endless Mike
Aug 13, 2003



veni veni veni posted:

So if the new iPad pros end up having oled screens, and that probably means a price bump, I wonder if there will likely be an LCD pro that is cheaper or will the Air 12.9 inch just replace that niche? or will they somehow by the grace of god remain the same price with an oled?

I wouldn't be super shocked if they keep the current M2 11" with a small price drop, but if you want 12.9", you're getting OLED.

serebralassazin
Feb 20, 2004
I wish I had something clever to say.
Pretty sure the analyst who said the new airs would get the current Pro Display retracted that like the following day. One week left till we find out though.

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know
Yeah a lot of my argument hinges on the Air getting the current pro display or something similar to it, all bets are off if that's not the case.

Doesn't really matter to me, all I want is that dope ultrathin OLED, the rest is whatever.

Ultimately I just want the iPad to be good. I use mine all the time. Apple please make it better

Endless Mike
Aug 13, 2003



It's very good hardware. It's the software that's garbo

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know
It feels pretty easy, if there's a mouse/keyb connected (whether through the magic keyboard or an actual M/K) you get MacOS. By all means make ipadOS better too but what are we even doing here at the end of the day. Allow a dual boot where you can just choose when you insert k/m :shrug: with the ability to default to ipadOS if you don't want to bother with it.

For me, the large form factor media consumption in a quasi-mobile format is enough, but the whole situation with macOS is just insulting. Especially as these new Pros are definitely getting a price bump if even half of these rumored specs come true. The higher the price gets on this hardware, the more ridiculous the situation becomes.

e: to clarify I am talking about the Pro models. The lower tier devices getting MacOS is, I guess, more of a nuanced conversation.

Honestly the iPhone Pros should also have MacOS as a premium feature, which is a whole other hot take but there it is. These MX chips are so powerful! Our phones are so loving powerful. Just plug our phone into an official dock and make it a MacOS computer. And Apple has the balls to label itself eco friendly

Taima fucked around with this message at 19:47 on May 2, 2024

sleepwalkers
Dec 7, 2008


every tech comapny is going to claim they’re ecofriendly and none of them are, because it’s a business predicated on selling you the Hot New Thing every year.

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Endless Mike
Aug 13, 2003



Taima posted:

Honestly the iPhone Pros should also have MacOS as a premium feature, which is a whole other hot take but there it is. These MX chips are so powerful! Our phones are so loving powerful. Just plug our phone into an official dock and make it a MacOS computer. And Apple has the balls to label itself eco friendly

iPhones Pro don't have Mx processors

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