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The Parties Invert In the last election Republicans won the majority of white voters, both with and without a college degree, but this year could be the first in a long time where Democrats win the majority of whites with a college degree.
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Jun 1, 2016 05:33
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In other words, Trump is guaranteed to lose. I can't see it as a stable state though. If Trump loses in a big, big way, the GOP will definitely look like it's in trouble. I don't think anyone can see where it's supposed to get the extra votes it needs to stay viable, if it loses college graduates as a whole. But power vacuums have a tendency to get filled, you have a 2 party system because that's the mathematical stable state in a democracy. I think a lot depends on Hillary, and the question of 'who does Hillary alienate first?' Any groups that feels it's not getting its concerned addressed enough is going to see the GOP, with this sizable minority, and jump ship with enough concessions. rudatron has issued a correction as of 14:47 on Jun 1, 2016 |
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Jun 1, 2016 14:32
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rudatron posted:In other words, Trump is guaranteed to lose. If Trump & the GOP really are doomed no matter what, I sincerely hope the Democrats take the GOP's spot and then the Green Party and Peace & Freedom party team up to take the Democrats' spot on the left. I can dream
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Jun 1, 2016 15:33
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rudatron posted:In other words, Trump is guaranteed to lose. any group? I think the list of groups in the democratic coalition who could actually get concessions from the GOP is pretty short. Maybe LGB (no T) at a stretch
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Jun 2, 2016 02:28
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Any group that can deliver the goods, there's plenty of examples in history of groups who by all rights should hate each other, willing to sing their praises because it's strategically convenient. The issue with LGBT is that there's just not enough votes there to be worthwhile. Though the change may happen anyway, just because acceptance of homosexuality becomes normalized. So it has to be a group large enough to be convenient (and having something to trade for those concessions), thinks it can get a better deal, and gets delivered some kind of excuse/casus belli for the switch. The obvious answer now would be #NeverHillary or whatever, who in all honestly will probably end up voting for her, but the problem there is the same with LGBT - there's no enough votes to be gained for the concessions that will have to be made, it's still a losing coalition.
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Jun 2, 2016 03:39
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