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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

Kraftwerk posted:

The part that gets me is how much men and material the Russians lost and yet they reconstituted their military and are double (triple?) the size they were at the start of the conflict while Ukraine is running out of troops and having a hard time finding new ones. At this rate Russia could take Kharkhiv if they work fast enough vs the aid.

It's very possible that Russia could defeat Ukraine or at least reduce it by fully annexing and locking in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. I just don't see how Ukraine can reconstitute itself and basically have 10:1 kill ratios when western support is so fragile and only sufficient enough to sustain Ukraine when it's on the defensive. It almost feels like we're delaying the inevitable rather than fighting for victory. It's frustrating to watch when we could've nipped this conflict in the bud back in 2022-2023 if we just had the political will to do so. Putin is resting comfortably and China seems to be backing Russia to the hilt and gaining some sort of geopolitical upper hand against America in future struggles. These threats just aren't being taken seriously enough for my liking.

You and Wilo should hang out some time. The nuke guy.

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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
:nws: :nms:

saw a newsweek blurb with drone footage of a cluster round (claimed to be atacms) hitting an alleged russian troop concentration point

the observing drone is very far back so the footage is not graphic and no deaths or injuries are visible, but it is probably footage of a moment that killed and maimed a lot of people so please avoid if you think that's going to negatively effect you

https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1785614608444674128

i only post it because it's the first time i've seen the actual use of cluster rounds and not satellite images of the after effects. seeing the sheer size of the area of effect is terrifying, i'm terrible at estimating scale but it seems to me like a circle with a radius of roughly 200m at least. to have an observation drone simply call in a single strike that was claimed to have basically erased an entire company dozens of miles behind the lines continues to highlight just how efficiently lethal modern war has become. the new atacms aren't a substitute for tube artillery, but the russians will have to think hard about larger troop concentrations anywhere close to the front, which will at least make it harder to rapidly exploit breakthroughs

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

:nws: :nms:



the observing drone is very far back so the footage is not graphic and no deaths or injuries are visible, but it is probably footage of a moment that killed and maimed a lot of people so please avoid if you think that's going to negatively effect you

https://twitter.com/JohnB_Schneider/status/1785614608444674128

i only post it because it's the first time i've seen the actual use of cluster rounds and not satellite images of the after effects.



I guess you missed this? Likewise :nms:, long-distance footage of a Russian cluster strike on a city park hundreds of km behind the Frontline.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1785242253797081221#m

(Which didn't get nearly enough reaction, IMHO)

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

OddObserver posted:

I guess you missed this? Likewise :nms:, long-distance footage of a Russian cluster strike on a city park hundreds of km behind the Frontline.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1785242253797081221#m

(Which didn't get nearly enough reaction, IMHO)

i saw the headline that there was a deadly strike on a city park in odessa, i didn't realize it was a cluster bomb. russia can't even claim that it was a strike on a nearby building with a legitimate target that missed, they used a round that's specifically for large open spaces to hit the park

another of the innumerable tragic aspects of this war is that i can make a list of the number of times the russians have bombed popular ukrainian parks

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


OddObserver posted:

I guess you missed this? Likewise :nms:, long-distance footage of a Russian cluster strike on a city park hundreds of km behind the Frontline.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1785242253797081221#m

(Which didn't get nearly enough reaction, IMHO)

Well that's hosed, I just assumed the Odessa park strike was debris from a shootdown but that's clearly cluster artillery working as intended

Quixzlizx
Jan 7, 2007
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68941220.amp

quote:

The US has accused Russia of deploying chemical weapons as a "method of warfare" in Ukraine, in violation of international laws banning their use.

State department officials said Russia used the choking agent chloropicrin to win "battlefield gains" over Ukraine.

The allegations, which US officials said were not an "isolated" incident, would contravene the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which Russia signed.

The Kremlin rejected the accusations, calling them "baseless".

Shells from NK, drones from Iran, and now Assad has something to contribute when needed.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i saw the headline that there was a deadly strike on a city park in odessa, i didn't realize it was a cluster bomb. russia can't even claim that it was a strike on a nearby building with a legitimate target that missed, they used a round that's specifically for large open spaces to hit the park

another of the innumerable tragic aspects of this war is that i can make a list of the number of times the russians have bombed popular ukrainian parks

Pretty sure that attack on Odessa was all about punishing the city for the Trade Union fire.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

quote:

Ukraine: Russian Forces Executed Surrendering Ukraine Soldiers

Russian forces appear to have executed at least 15 Ukrainian soldiers as they attempted to surrender, and possibly six more who were surrendering or who had surrendered, since early December 2023, Human Rights Watch said today. These incidents should be investigated as war crimes.

“Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its forces have committed many heinous war crimes,” said Belkis Wille, associate crisis and conflict director at Human Rights Watch. “The summary execution – or murder – of surrendering and injured Ukrainian soldiers, gunned down in cold blood, expressly forbidden under international humanitarian law, is also included in that shameful legacy.”

quote:

The apparent executions do not appear to be isolated instances. Human Rights Watch also identified Russian drone footage posted on February 5, 2024, capturing a separate battlefield moment. In that incident, Human Rights Watch could not determine whether the Ukrainian soldiers surrendered, but a male voice heard in the clip, which appears to be credible, apparently provides commands to Russian soldiers on the battlefield in the Donetska region. The voice says in Russian, “take no prisoners, shoot everyone.” Audiovisual analysis of the footage supports the conclusion that the drone is Russian.

A report published in March 2023 by the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documented Russian armed forces and Wagner Group executions of 15 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) during the first year of the full-scale invasion. In its February to July 2023 periodic report, the UN documented the summary execution of six Ukrainian POWs. A follow-up report published in March 2024, covering the three previous months, identified 12 reported episodes of executions of at least 32 captured POWs or people hors de combat. The UN independently verified three of the latter incidents, involving seven Ukrainian soldiers.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/05/02/ukraine-russian-forces-executed-surrendering-ukraine-soldiers

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Russia is winning so hard it needs to cluster-bomb a city park on a warm afternoon. How do you even begin to justify this poo poo? Upcoming victory day?

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Mokotow posted:

Russia is winning so hard it needs to cluster-bomb a city park on a warm afternoon. How do you even begin to justify this poo poo? Upcoming victory day?

Historically speaking you say they meant to hit an abandoned shack 2 blocks away somebody once repaired an armored car in 8 years ago.

To be fair...
Feb 3, 2006
Film Producer
I keep seeing articles of F16s in Ukraine, anything confirmed?

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

To be fair... posted:

I keep seeing articles of F16s in Ukraine, anything confirmed?

Probably we'll see something confirmed when they do something that would make Tom Clancy blush.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

To be fair... posted:

I keep seeing articles of F16s in Ukraine, anything confirmed?

i saw a recent statement from the ukranians that they're expecting delivery after easter, but it's something i doubt they'd ever give a straight answer on because why risk it

To be fair...
Feb 3, 2006
Film Producer

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

i saw a recent statement from the ukranians that they're expecting delivery after easter, but it's something i doubt they'd ever give a straight answer on because why risk it

Orthodox Easter? Roman Catholics already did their egg hunts.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

To be fair... posted:

Orthodox Easter? Roman Catholics already did their egg hunts.

Yes. This Sunday is Orthodox Easter.

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Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/american-aid-alone-wont-save-ukraine

Jack Watling has a new article in FA.

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