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mdemone posted:Make it an MMO set in a map the size of North America with procedurally-generated terrain around each player's "homestead". I want to avoid the whole "GUNS!" stuff because I'd like the game to be played in classrooms. So mainly the 'warlords' could explain why you don't want to travel on what remains of the highway system and also why there really aren't vehicles lying around for you to drive. Trivia: When my children were in elementary school, David Brin's kid was in the same class. So I know him.
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Jun 5, 2019 20:07
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Griffen posted:I'm doing a bad job of describing it. The status quo is not capable of handling it, so we need a new paradigm to handle it. Yes, communism, we know.
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Jun 5, 2019 20:39
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VideoGameVet posted:I want to avoid the whole "GUNS!" stuff because I'd like the game to be played in classrooms. Just refer to the Arms Act of 2048, and voila! No guns in the game world.
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Jun 5, 2019 20:48
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Came across copies of Heinbergs "Powerdown" and "Peak Everything" in the library, had one of those adolescent moments where you realize you don't have an original idea and somebody has already expressed it better. Reading along, nodding along, noting these were written almost a decade ago - before the hard science on consumer-driven ecological collapse started hitting the news cycle - and we're still on the same path. I realize he got his start as a peak oil alarmist and then pivoted into the everything bubble when fracking and advanced directional drilling kicked oil depletion down the road a few more decades, but his thesis in these is pretty well defended by current science.
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Jun 6, 2019 14:53
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I started as a peak oil alarmist and then pivoted into the everything bubble when fracking and advanced directional drilling kicked oil depletion down the road a few more decades, and the hard economic deceleration I expected instead turned into a exponential growth horrorshow that blew right past safe planetary boundaries. You know, it's like being a teenager and watching your mom mismanage her finances and you can just see the writing on the wall that she's going to go broke in a few months. But then one day she starts paying off all her bills and buying new poo poo and you're like "what the gently caress?" And then you find out. She got a credit card. Conspiratiorist fucked around with this message at 15:17 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 15:12
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keep in mind that fracking and oil sands have wildly lower energy returns so even though the barrels-per-day number is still going up the net-energy one is plateauing a flat energy supply explains the drive toward financialization in the economy and explains why companies can't figure out what to invest in. more and more money is chasing the same amount of productive energy.
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Jun 6, 2019 16:14
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Perry Mason Jar posted:Yes, communism, we know. The problem is the ideal of endless growth - which is certainly intrinsic to our from of capitalism, but it's not clear that saying 'ok, we'll do communism now instead' will fundamentally shift that underlying faith. Even without climate change, humanity would need to figure out how to be happy in conditions of zero growth. It's just that climate change is the aspect of our disregard for the overall systems that we exist in that will do us in first. I presume that people were, at times, happy in the past where there was no conception of GDP - if only we could remember how that was done. In regards to 'alarmist' scenarios - if there is some plan to keep us under 2C with a 80% probability of succeeding, I would read that as a plan with a 20% probability of failing, which is too high. Our plans for dealing with climate change need to be incredibly risk-averse, because of the potential consequences of a worst-case scenario and of the uncertainty we have in assigning probabilities to these risks. When the entire earth is at stake, playing it as safe as possible is the only rational approach.
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Jun 6, 2019 19:46
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"Playing it safe" is the argument behind the past 40 years of centrist environmental policy.
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Jun 6, 2019 19:55
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Mozi posted:The problem is the ideal of endless growth - which is certainly intrinsic to our from of capitalism, but it's not clear that saying 'ok, we'll do communism now instead' will fundamentally shift that underlying faith. There is no form of capitalism that does not necessitate endless growth. If you figure out how to do that you've either found the elusive Third Way (it doesn't exist, or is just fascism rebranded) or have re-discovered Keynesianism (self defeating due to regulatory capture). It doesn't matter if underlying faith is shifted (although it will have), the mechanisms that allow for individual, capital accumulation will simply not exist; it's kind of like saying, "it's not clear that saying 'ok, we'll do capitalism now' will fundamentally shift the underlying faith in the divine right of monarchs" - (it will, but) it doesn't matter, there's no possible way for you to either continue to be king or to become king. Underlying faith is necessarily shifted as the class consciousness required for the instigation of a revolutionary movement demands that shift (namely, here, from an individualist, idealist paradigm to a collectivist, materialist paradigm).
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Jun 6, 2019 20:06
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Mozi posted:The problem is the ideal of endless growth - which is certainly intrinsic to our from of capitalism, but it's not clear that saying 'ok, we'll do communism now instead' will fundamentally shift that underlying faith. I agree, communism is still an economic ideology of consumption. It just (in theory) redistributes the consumption more equally. Historical and current examples of communist regimes have been loving horrible for the environment. Nightmarish beyond capitalism, in the case of China and the USSR. Better than communism would be some sort of environmental totalitarian dictatorship, where you aggrrssively liquidate those who get out of line or are caught polluting and use their nutrient load to nurture forests, and return entire nations to wilderness. 
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Jun 6, 2019 20:09
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We thought technology advances would bring us a "Jetsons" future of endless supply and want for nothing.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:10
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Conspiratiorist posted:"Playing it safe" is the argument behind the past 40 years of centrist environmental policy. That was only playing it safe for the short-term, which is entirely distinct from playing it safe for the long-term.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:13
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I always thought there was a really horrible reason you never saw the ground on The Jetsons.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:13
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Rime posted:I agree, communism is still an economic ideology of consumption. It just (in theory) redistributes the consumption more equally. Historical and current examples of communist regimes have been loving horrible for the environment. Nightmarish beyond capitalism, in the case of China and the USSR. Cuba was (this century, and they're just edged out now) the world leader in sustainable development and environmental protection. USSR and China were rapidly industrializing, both barreling from feudalism to communism, so an explosion of pollution rather than drawn out or performed outside of the country as happened elsewhere.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:14
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It's very likely a mistake totally to presume that environmental policies have anything to do with societal/economic structure, to be fair. But we know one system demands perpetual growth and another doesn't.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:19
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Perry Mason Jar posted:Cuba was (this century, and they're just edged out now) the world leader in sustainable development and environmental protection. USSR and China were rapidly industrializing, both barreling from feudalism to communism, so an explosion of pollution rather than drawn out or performed outside of the country as happened elsewhere. Sure, I agree with you here. However let's not ignore that Cubas situation was born out of extreme isolation enforced by a nuclear superpower (and was partly cultural since Albania, despite being similarly isolated, still industrialized). The sustainability initiatives developed in Cuba werent really by choice. So what we'll need is a benevolent dictator sitting on the moon and threatening to drop an asteroid the size of Rhode Island on a continent if we don't all play Cuba moving forwards. Absent that kind of omnipresent threat (because extinction in a century is obviously insufficient) to bring nations universally in line and keep them there, we're hosed.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:35
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Rime posted:So what we'll need is a benevolent dictator sitting on the moon and threatening to drop an asteroid the size of Rhode Island on a continent if we don't all play Cuba moving forwards. Absent that kind of omnipresent threat (because extinction in a century is obviously insufficient) to bring nations universally in line and keep them there, we're hosed. If only this was Elon Musks' long game.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:39
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I was able to confirm something I posted earlier in a discussion with a colleague. Rail fuel/ MT/km is in 7 to 10 times larger range than the marine mode dependant on the assumptions. That does not include the capital costs of the modes, only the fuel usage of a typical existing train compared to a typical existing ship for bulk cargoes. I have no reason to believe it would be different for containerized cargos.
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Jun 6, 2019 20:42
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https://twitter.com/jusmas27/status/1136601915024916480
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Jun 6, 2019 21:00
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What air pollution mask should I get? http://respro.com/pollution-masks/mask-selector I plan on RUNNING in URBAN environment from HEAT death. Edit: this was meant for C-SPAM Perry Mason Jar fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Jun 6, 2019 |
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Jun 6, 2019 21:13
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Jun 7, 2019 01:05
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Yeah I just saw that. Holy poo poo.
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Jun 7, 2019 01:28
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That is a novel argument.
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Jun 7, 2019 02:59
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In auto news the big manufacturers are upset they're going to get what they asked for. Automakers Tell Trump His Pollution Rules Could Mean ‘Untenable’ Instability and Lower Profits https://nyti.ms/31aIfml
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Jun 7, 2019 03:00
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It wouldn't surprise me if this is all intentional to force a showdown over states' regulatory rights. Relaxing federal standards basically means that California and New York are going to get to dictate national emissions standards by default. I don't actually buy the panic about a split market, because automakers are already doing everything possible to consolidate their product lines. They aren't going to go back to widespread production of EPA and CARB versions except where they can do it through software.
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Jun 7, 2019 03:10
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Industrial methane emissions are 100 times higher than reported, researchers sayquote:“We took one small industry that most people have never heard of and found that its methane emissions were three times higher than the EPA assumed was emitted by all industrial production in the United States,” said John Albertson, co-author and professor of civil and environmental engineering. “It shows us that there’s a huge gap between a priori estimates and real-world measurements.” I'll remind the thread that Methane is 100x worse than C02 for warming. Believe me that the only solution is to immediately disassemble industrial civilization, yet?
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Jun 7, 2019 03:36
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Rime posted:Believe me that the only solution is to immediately disassemble industrial civilization, yet?  (at one point i called you mentally ill but that wasn't because i didn't believe you lol)
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Jun 7, 2019 03:39
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Rime posted:Industrial methane emissions are 100 times higher than reported, researchers say I get what they were going for here by looking at fertilizer production, but I actually really want accurate assessments of fugitive methane release from the whole natural gas supply chain. Most estimates already assume that it's much higher than what we think, and I suspect that even "well, at least it's better than coal" isn't the slam dunk truth that people think it is. (from a climate change perspective, obviously coal is loving awful in a million other ways)
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Jun 7, 2019 03:50
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Stoner Sloth posted:It's getting to near those temperatures here - Ceduna, a town near where I am hit 50.8, a couple of years back and it hit over 47 in the main capital city here last summer. Checks out. 
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Jun 7, 2019 07:22
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For years I have pointed out that Syria was the first big bang of 21st century climate induced conflict. We now have a second data point on the chart: Central America. Those migrant caravans which have been heading for the USA, containing thousands of desperate refugees? They aren't seeking glorious American wages and lifestyles, they're fleeing starvation. Otherwise, why now? Why stew in poverty for generations, through multiple violent conflicts in the region, only to start migrating en-masse out of the blue in 2016? Because agriculture is beginning to collapse on the equator, and starvation is the final straw for humans. Food doesn't grow here anymore. That's why I would send my son north. Of course, you won't see this explanation on the news. Just as Syria has been painted as a simple rebellion against a murderous dictatorship caused by religious strife, with the drought-induced internal migration which sparked it entirely ignored, so too is the media refusing to discuss the underlying reason as to why there are suddenly thousands of refugees surging towards the American border. Collapse is already knocking on our doors. Rime fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Jun 7, 2019 |
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Jun 7, 2019 16:07
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https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1136984905731182592?s=19 I'm sure the free speech mavens who were deeply concerned about fascists getting deplatformed at college campuses will get right on this.
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Jun 7, 2019 16:10
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Rime posted:Collapse is already knocking on our doors. To see what's going to happen don't look at Trump. Look at the Bush flunkies criticizing Trump. They want to partner with Mexico to keep the immigrants from crossing into Mexico in the first place. We will outsource the horror at least for a while.
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Jun 7, 2019 16:16
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Helen Highwater posted:Checks out. Yeah, checks out, we voted in Scott Morrison again. 
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Jun 7, 2019 16:52
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Paradoxish posted:I get what they were going for here by looking at fertilizer production, but I actually really want accurate assessments of fugitive methane release from the whole natural gas supply chain. Most estimates already assume that it's much higher than what we think, and I suspect that even "well, at least it's better than coal" isn't the slam dunk truth that people think it is. Part of the challenge with accurate measures of fugitive emissions of methane is apparently that most of the unaccounted for large releases occur during non-standard operating conditions...i.e. fuckups. Which are weirdly enough the exact time that companies usually refuse to allow outside researchers on site.
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Jun 7, 2019 17:20
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That is also when things could blow up though. But if they have a gently caress up and a hazardous release they should have reported it to DOT and it's a huge deal if they didn't.
Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Jun 7, 2019 |
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Jun 7, 2019 17:54
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BrandorKP posted:That is also when things could blow up though. But if they have a gently caress up and a hazardous release they should have reported it to DOT, and it's a huge deal if they didn't. Yeah, I think you’ll find the underreporting of releases by industry to strangely never be as huge of a deal as the law implies. For example, satellite data showed that for at least a few weeks flared gas in the Permian Basin exceeded the annual flare limit of all the issued permits. But you don’t see the Texas Railroad Commission jumping to fine anybody. But upon finding the source I was vaguely citing, looks like O&G production emissions of methane are 60% higher than EPA estimates due to abnormal operations: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6398/186 quote:Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated by using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 teragrams per year, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO2 from natural gas combustion. Substantial emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems.
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Jun 7, 2019 18:05
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It's almost as if we turn a blind eye to the socialization of ecological damage, because if we penalized and priced it in accordance with the effects on the environment most of our civilization wouldn't exist in a capitalist economy. At least, that's my thesis. 
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Jun 7, 2019 18:19
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Trabisnikof posted:Yeah, I think you’ll find the underreporting of releases by industry to strangely never be as huge of a deal as the law implies. Thank you for sharing this.
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Jun 7, 2019 18:29
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Ah I see what's going on now. It's not DOT / pipeline it's Texas. They aren't an interstate carrier so only the state stuff applies. That sucks.
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Jun 7, 2019 19:59
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the story of how volkswagen got caught in diselgate is, imho, an example of what we should do more of. i'm very interested in how sensor networks and satellites can be used to partially route around the industry-reporting-lies/regulatory-capture dynamic. The EDF is trying to put one up specifically to look for methane: https://www.edf.org/climate/how-methanesat-is-different edit: amazon cloud lets you freaking rent satellite time: https://aws.amazon.com/ground-station/pricing/ basically anything you can think of we can now image from the sky and filter through machine learning to look for patterns. even if we don't have the visual resolution for what you think of today, we will in 5 -10 years. StabbinHobo fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Jun 7, 2019 |
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Jun 7, 2019 20:17
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