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empty whippet box
Jun 9, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
hey GBS plague thread, I really only post in cspam usually so hello. Anyways, I just got permission to use this design from the original creator so it's on my website now so I thought I'd post it here

I wear one of these on the front and back of my shirt and dead center on my mask whenever I leave my house. It's fun, you should try it. I've also been yelling at strangers who aren't wearing masks lately because it makes me feel empowered and righteous and they deserve to be yelled at

https://thehotbuttonissue.com/product/wear-a-loving-mask/

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occluded
Oct 31, 2012

Sandals: Become the means to create A JUST SOCIETY


Fun Shoe

Illuminti posted:

I'm not quite animation, I've worked in VFX for 15+ years. But I've seen plenty of anim shops. You must've been in some godawful ones.

We're all quite happily working from home, I'm sure the set up is much the same for the major animation studios, and when we do come back social distancing will be quite simple.
Working on set may not be quite as bad as that other dude is making out, but I can certainly see animation picking up some slack, especially as it seems like this is going on for the rest of the year in america now.

I'm a steadicam op and the idea of going back to work on set right now is a loving joke. Not least of all because I had the 'roni back in march and I still can't breathe properly if I walk around carrying heavy stuff.

Here in the UK at least it looks like there are plenty of smaller shoots going on now, but - surprise! - they are all being run by the worst dodgy shithead producers, the guys who couldn't keep a set well organised and safe when there wasn't a global pandemic. Hearing stories of people agreeing to work with 'all covid safety guidelines in place' and they get to set and there's nothing, and, welp, we all signed up to do a job and we won't get paid if we leave so we better just try to get on with it.

Idiots. Your loving artist doesn't need a music video right now, 'specially if it's a grime track about how you a bad man, your lyrics sick like a virus or whatever.

strange feelings re Daisy
Aug 2, 2000

Coronavirus is now using speed hacks:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html

quote:

"All the results agreed that the G form was three to nine times more infectious than the D form," he added. "We now had experimental evidence that supported, in part, what Bette was seeing in her analysis of the sequences across the globe -- the G form had a fitness advantage in terms of infectivity."

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

empty whippet box posted:

hey GBS plague thread, I really only post in cspam usually so hello. Anyways, I just got permission to use this design from the original creator so it's on my website now so I thought I'd post it here

I wear one of these on the front and back of my shirt and dead center on my mask whenever I leave my house. It's fun, you should try it. I've also been yelling at strangers who aren't wearing masks lately because it makes me feel empowered and righteous and they deserve to be yelled at

https://thehotbuttonissue.com/product/wear-a-loving-mask/



i appreciate your efforts :3:

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

Not "now", this refers to basically the start of the infection in the USA.

quote:

"Through March 1, 2020, the G614 variant was rare outside of Europe, but the end of March it had increased in frequency worldwide," they wrote.

"The earliest sequence we detected that carried all four mutations was sampled in Italy on Feb. 20,"

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

poverty goat posted:

If you're deliberately standing 6 feet away from a bunch of people you should probably still wear a mask. If you are out in the woods or on the open sea it's probably safe to take it off.
My understanding, and please correct me if I'm wrong, is:
  • the early results that indicated long term survivability on surfaces were looking for RNA, not viable virus, which is a much lower bar
  • there are zero confirmed cases of human-surface-human spread (in which more common routes can be ruled out)
If this were a big thing, contact tracers would be finding cases of human-surface-human spread, but they really aren't. This doesn't mean it's not happening or that you should start licking doorknobs again, just that it's pretty rare to catch the virus this way. Covid's main thing is face to face large droplets, followed by low-grade aerosol action where in enclosed spaces with really bad airflow. Surface transmission is somewhere way below those two.

Literally every nursing home patient in the US who has died of coronavirus could have caught it from an infected surface and we'd never know because that kind of analysis is very difficult and isn't a priority. Even countries that are trying to do this (e.g. China) are adopting a very slapdash approach because if you have an outbreak the bigger concern is finding secondary infections and decontaminating the infection site. Even when they do announce that they believe surface transmission occurred (as they did last month) no one believes them because it's China, and because it's extremely hard to definitively prove that kind of thing anyway.

At this time we know next to nothing about the likelihood of surface-based infection, just that intact viral RNA can be found for up to several days on a variety of surface types. Studies have also looked for and found intact viruses on surfaces, but no one knows whether the samples constituted an infectious dose. This thread is getting toyed with by observation bias. It is not correct to say that we know with any certainty that surface transmission has a low or negligible likelihood of occurring. It is correct to say that we don't have observations of surface-based transmission occurring, but this may be because A) we're not even really trying to perform those kinds of measurements and B) it's really hard to determine that kind of cause when infection often isn't noticeable for a week or more.

poverty goat posted:

Also, if food/surfaces were going to be a big factor we would have been having outbreaks related to groceries and takeout food/containers over the last few months, because I can guarantee you people in kitchens and grocery stores have been working through minor covid symptoms and coughing on the goods because "it's just allergies" and "having to pay for food and rent" and most people never bought into the grocery bleaching hype.

Case in point, that would be a really good observation to make if we were doing any significant contact tracing and surface analysis, but we simply aren't. Contact tracing rates are abysmally low across the country. Surface analysis is nonexistent. I'm aware of a handful of cases in Hawaii that were traced back to a single McDonalds where a (later-discovered) infected worker was working at the time, but that was the full extent of the effort: the packaging was already long gone, and the food eaten, how would we even begin to determine whether those had anything to do with the new infections or not?

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
I like how the same people who go:

> scientists lied to us about human-to-human transmission

now go with

> scientist tell us hard surface transmission doesn't happen

when in both cases the situation was/is:

> scientists are only saying "we don't have a study that rigorously proves it yet"

redgubbinz
May 1, 2007

All we know for sure is that Death is Certain.

schmug
May 20, 2007

redgubbinz posted:

All we know for sure is that Death is Certain.

lol listen to this truther

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Mithaldu posted:

I like how the same people who go:

> scientists lied to us about human-to-human transmission

now go with

> scientist tell us hard surface transmission doesn't happen

when in both cases the situation was/is:

> scientists are only saying "we don't have a study that rigorously proves it yet"

i think it's a little different where when they were saying 'no evidence for human-to-human transmission' there were people getting sick in different countries who had never been to the wet market, whereas if surface transmission was a major factor in spread i think it would have been clear by this point just by more people getting sick from groceries and stuff. the question is to quantify the degree of risk

i mean true that's the WHO's defense of what they were saying but they should have been aware that 'no evidence for' is going to be misinterpreted by the public as 'we don't think it's happening'

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Some real commitment to the end times in the face of good news itt

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

Mozi posted:

i think it's a little different where when they were saying 'no evidence for human-to-human transmission' there were people getting sick in different countries who had never been to the wet market, whereas if surface transmission was a major factor in spread i think it would have been clear by this point just by more people getting sick from groceries and stuff. the question is to quantify the degree of risk

i mean true that's the WHO's defense of what they were saying but they should have been aware that 'no evidence for' is going to be misinterpreted by the public as 'we don't think it's happening'

by january 14, when WHO posted "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission" there were 42 cases known in china, and 0 recorded anywhere else.

there were not people getting sick in different countries, at least as far as public knowledge went.

Mithaldu fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Jul 3, 2020

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
There’s mystery spread going on even in places with competent contact tracing

How did the virus infect the first person in each cluster? Some clusters can be connected to each other. Some are mysteries.

Certainly there are untraced contacts behind some clusters, but surfaces cannot be discounted. Inefficient surface transmission makes a lot of sense. It infects one person, seemingly out of the blue, who then starts a cluster among their face-to-face contacts.

“Inefficient” sounds great, but when the prevalence of infected people gets as high as it is in America, even inefficient mechanisms may present a not insignificant threat to a person’s wellbeing.

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames

Waltzing Along posted:

JFK was going to close down the CIA. The CIA runs rampant around the world overthrowing democracies among all the other poo poo they get up to. Also, that seminal moment is when the US really started to split. LBJ escalating in Vietnam which led to the fracturing of the country. The US, I mean.

Oh I know why JFK was killed. He was a good one.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Platystemon posted:

There’s mystery spread going on even in places with competent contact tracing

How did the virus infect the first person in each cluster? Some clusters can be connected to each other. Some are mysteries.

Certainly there are untraced contacts behind some clusters, but surfaces cannot be discounted. Inefficient surface transmission makes a lot of sense. It infects one person, seemingly out of the blue, who then starts a cluster among their face-to-face contacts.

“Inefficient” sounds great, but when the prevalence of infected people gets as high as it is in America, even inefficient mechanisms may present a not insignificant threat to a person’s wellbeing.

e: misread lol

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Australia has a lot of problems, but blaming them on the Trump base is a little odd.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Platystemon posted:

Australia has a lot of problems, but blaming them on the Trump base is a little odd.

Yeah I just woke up and misread :downs:

I need coffee

Andrast
Apr 21, 2010


Australia is definitely Trump's fault

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Andrast posted:

Australia is definitely Trump's fault

Big if true

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Mithaldu posted:

by january 14, when WHO posted "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission" there were 42 cases known in china, and 0 recorded anywhere else.

there were not people getting sick in different countries, at least as far as public knowledge went.

but how long did it take them to publicly change that opinion?

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:

quote:

14 January 2020

WHO's technical lead for the response noted in a press briefing there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus (in the 41 confirmed cases), mainly through family members, and that there was a risk of a possible wider outbreak. The lead also said that human-to-human transmission would not be surprising given our experience with SARS, MERS and other respiratory pathogens.

20-21 January 2020

WHO experts from its China and Western Pacific regional offices conducted a brief field visit to Wuhan.

22 January 2020

WHO mission to China issued a statement saying that there was evidence of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan but more investigation was needed to understand the full extent of transmission.

Rolo
Nov 16, 2005

Hmm, what have we here?
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1278897430378041344

We’re all good over here!

Mithaldu
Sep 25, 2007

Let's cuddle. :3:
you mean

*survives with severe, life-altering and life-shortening tissue damage*

Submarine Sandpaper
May 27, 2007


Mozi posted:

but how long did it take them to publicly change that opinion?

i still don't get this hate boner

asymptomatic infection is a thing and by golly initial observation will show that as lack of transmission. it's like my chuddy boss who thinks that we have the best bio labs in the world or some other dumb poo poo. They're miles ahead of us.

Submarine Sandpaper
May 27, 2007


what good info has the US given regarding this virus? It's not in some initial stage anymore.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Mozi posted:

but how long did it take them to publicly change that opinion?

That was no opinion, it was absolute fact.

They changed it when the WHO was informed that a link had been found.

That is the WHO's job in this case, to facilitate communication between different nations. Remember: The WHO was set up to help international coordination and it is only as effective as its member nations let it.

I am honestly mystified why Americans are so hung up on the WHO. Other nations have their own agencies that turn information into advice for laypeople. They didn't wait for a link to be conclusively proven because "oh hey a new SARS" has everyone on edge from the get go.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Antigravitas posted:

"oh hey a new SARS" has everyone on edge from the get go.

Good.

Submarine Sandpaper
May 27, 2007


America's CDC:

wearing a mask does not help prevent spread

5 months later mask orders.

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E

He really is shooting the moon. I wonder what the 4D chess move is that involves killing his voting base.

greazeball
Feb 4, 2003



Shaocaholica posted:

He really is shooting the moon. I wonder what the 4D chess move is that involves killing his voting base.

you can't lose an election if you can't hold an election

Fried Watermelon
Dec 29, 2008


more younger people are dying and we know they recover from death faster and better than old people

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014


Why do these dumbasses always brag about the current death rate, given that it lags 3 weeks? Like.. everyone's gonna share this tweet in August when we hit a quarter million dead. Tronp loves to create content for dems to put into ads against him, I don't get it.

drainpipe
May 17, 2004

AAHHHHHHH!!!!

Hm, polls showing Trump behind by 10+%. Surely he cannot win the election now!

Schadenboner
Aug 15, 2011

by Shine

drainpipe posted:

Hm, polls showing Trump behind by 10+%. Surely he cannot win the election now!

greazeball posted:

you can't lose an election if you can't hold an election


zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived

Illuminti posted:


Working on set may not be quite as bad as that other dude is making out


from the last season of hbo's "plot against america"

but uh yeah, tell me again how the thing i do is safe, people who don't do my job :negative:

Shaocaholica
Oct 29, 2002

Fig. 5E
It’s going to be such an amazing poo poo show if he earnestly ‘tries’ to cancel the election.

zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived

occluded posted:

I'm a steadicam op and the idea of going back to work on set right now is a loving joke. Not least of all because I had the 'roni back in march and I still can't breathe properly if I walk around carrying heavy stuff.

Here in the UK at least it looks like there are plenty of smaller shoots going on now, but - surprise! - they are all being run by the worst dodgy shithead producers, the guys who couldn't keep a set well organised and safe when there wasn't a global pandemic. Hearing stories of people agreeing to work with 'all covid safety guidelines in place' and they get to set and there's nothing, and, welp, we all signed up to do a job and we won't get paid if we leave so we better just try to get on with it.

Idiots. Your loving artist doesn't need a music video right now, 'specially if it's a grime track about how you a bad man, your lyrics sick like a virus or whatever.

I like all the people that took a 40 minute online course and are now posting their "COVID SAFETY CERTS" on social.

Production is hosed until a vacc, anyone who doesn't think so is deluding themselves or like you said a scum gently caress indie producer. Die for your movie/commercial/tv show/corporate talking head? gently caress outta here.

e: glad you're slowly recovering. your case is what scares me the most, 60% of my job is dealing with heavy rear end gear all the time. (I'm a CLT)

zer0spunk fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jul 3, 2020

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

zer0spunk posted:

I like all the people that took a 40 minute online course and are now posting their "COVID SAFETY CERTS" on social.

Production is hosed until a vacc, anyone who doesn't think so is deluding themselves or like you said a scum gently caress indie producer. Die for your movie/commercial/tv show/corporate talking head? gently caress outta here.

e: glad you're slowly recovering. your case is what scares me the most, 60% of my job is dealing with heavy rear end gear all the time. (I'm a CLT)

If you’re not willing to die for “Guess the rear end” reality tv show on Bravo, rethink your career mister, we’re here to make ART

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

smoobles posted:

Why do these dumbasses always brag about the current death rate, given that it lags 3 weeks? Like.. everyone's gonna share this tweet in August when we hit a quarter million dead. Tronp loves to create content for dems to put into ads against him, I don't get it.

Yesterday a dude that I (now) used to be friends with on Facebook shared a 2 month old Trey Gowdy quote saying that there had only been a handful of deaths and the ordinary flu was way worse.

These people don’t give a poo poo about facts or reason all they care about is sucking trumps dick and owning the libs.

e: they’re also just flat out loving stupid. Like even if all you care about is sucking trump off you gotta be a real loving bonehead to try and support Trump by posting quotes from chuds that prove the “hysteria mongering dems and media” were right two months ago and all the “it’s just the flu bro” chuds were 100% wrong.

bird with big dick fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Jul 3, 2020

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zer0spunk
Nov 6, 2000

devil never even lived

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

If you’re not willing to die for “Guess the rear end” reality tv show on Bravo, rethink your career mister, we’re here to make ART

There's a story I'll be more comfortable telling someday (most likely soon) when I burn all my bridges.

After my last day of work on march 6th, my next gig was a remote dating show for TLC, which I remember thinking was a dumb idea for a show, ironically. Virus hit, show got delayed obviously, but then I get told they are going to do it in early may (I'm in NYC remember) and am I available?

So yeah, you joke..but they tried.

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