(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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But why are Uyghers "our Muslim neighbors"?
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Jul 14, 2020 07:39
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stephenthinkpad posted:But why are Uyghers "our Muslim neighbors"? His office is probably next to the Gitmo translator's.
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Jul 14, 2020 08:05
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The UK has reserved it's earlier decision from January to allow Huawei to participate in it's 5G buildout and has now banned the company. All Huawei components are also to be purged from the networks by 2027. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-huawei/uk-to-purge-huawei-from-5g-by-2027-angering-china-and-pleasing-trump-idUSKCN24E30P
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Jul 14, 2020 14:56
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I wonder if the beginning of the original Cold War was this sudden and jarring. Could have been even more so given how WW2 had just ended and suddenly the friend was the enemy and the enemy was the friend. But this is all happening so fast, how long until WTO disbands and reforms into a new club where China isn't allowed?
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Jul 14, 2020 16:15
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As long as Trump doesn't remove HK from separate trade region status, these are just posturing. The I hipe somebody come up with a better name than "new cold war".
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Jul 14, 2020 17:12
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sincx has issued a correction as of 05:30 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Jul 14, 2020 17:14
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sincx posted:Most of the world does not share Five Eyes' desire to return to a time where the US is the sole superpower. While I agree that two competing superpowers is probably better than one, unfortunately I don't see this new global order resulting in any benefits for normal people. At least in the cold war a lot of the nice things about America were because they had to prove that capitalism was better than communism so they reigned in some of capitalism's worst impulses to create a better deal for common workers. Now you have zero incentive to do this and repatriating supply lines to the US is just going to results in more automation and no real benefit to labour. It's going to look a lot like the kind of dick waving contest Britain had with Germany in WW1 where everyone suffered except their elites.
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Jul 14, 2020 17:42
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stephenthinkpad posted:I hipe somebody come up with a better name than "new cold war". The Fall of the West
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Jul 14, 2020 17:48
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China is too important to global capitalism to really ever get into a true Cold War with the US. There will probably be heightened tensions and maybe some proxy wars but there's not going to be the wholesale fission of countries into separate camps.
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Jul 14, 2020 17:56
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sincx has issued a correction as of 05:30 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Jul 14, 2020 18:03
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sincx posted:Ehh, I can see it. The Trump admin has utterly failed, and America's collapse is overwhelmingly obvious. They desperately need a distraction, an external boogieman which they can blame for Trump's failures in economic policy, foreign policy, and pandemic containment. So Pence and Pompeo dusts off the Yellow Peril playbook, and the white supremacist mini-Trumps in Australia and the UK are all too happy to oblige. we have always been at war with east asia and russia has always been our friend
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Jul 14, 2020 18:12
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There's nothing for America to collapse into. America might not be the unquestioned hyperpower it was 20 years ago but at the same time it's not the Soviet Union, there's no ethnic member republics to go spinning off no matter how bad things get. Moreover, proper de-globalization would be disastrous for capital worldwide and for that reason theyll fight tooth and nail to prevent it from ever happening.
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Jul 14, 2020 18:19
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The idea that the major countries of the world are too intertwined by capitalist relations to have a major conflict that disrupts the global economy was also common prior to WW1.
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Jul 14, 2020 18:49
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sum posted:There's nothing for America to collapse into. America might not be the unquestioned hyperpower it was 20 years ago but at the same time it's not the Soviet Union, there's no ethnic member republics to go spinning off no matter how bad things get. Moreover, proper de-globalization would be disastrous for capital worldwide and for that reason theyll fight tooth and nail to prevent it from ever happening. The US doesn't need to officially balkanize to lose a massive amount of power and influence. I don't think the world will de-globalize...it will just be loosely divided into two camps and a bunch of neutral states. The US can't fully cut its supply chains with China, but China can certainly start occupying the power vacuum left by the US. The deal with Iran more or less shows the direction where things are going. Again, the major battlefields will be in the global south but I don't think East Asia/South East Asia will be the hotzone it was.
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Jul 14, 2020 19:04
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Ardennes posted:The US doesn't need to officially balkanize to lose a massive amount of power and influence. China is basically turning Africa into its own China isn't it? Though like always it's not the native Africans who get to benefit from any of the opportunities as China is sending its own labour to do all the construction and resource extraction.
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Jul 14, 2020 19:06
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Kraftwerk posted:China is basically turning Africa into its own China isn't it? Though like always it's not the native Africans who get to benefit from any of the opportunities as China is sending its own labour to do all the construction and resource extraction. Wait...did the US send a bunch of engineers to China to take jobs away from Chinese people?
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Jul 14, 2020 19:11
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sum posted:There's nothing for America to collapse into. America might not be the unquestioned hyperpower it was 20 years ago but at the same time it's not the Soviet Union, there's no ethnic member republics to go spinning off no matter how bad things get. Moreover, proper de-globalization would be disastrous for capital worldwide and for that reason theyll fight tooth and nail to prevent it from ever happening. The struggle is systemic u have world elites interesting in maintaining a global economic system but the existence of a regional nation state governance model that is incapable of handling it at the same time, the guarantor of the "rules based" trade system ( the US) has shown that it cannot be trusted most likely there will be a breakdown of the existing trade order into more integrated regionalized transnational trade blocs
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Jul 14, 2020 19:23
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sincx posted:Ehh, I can see it. The Trump admin has utterly failed, and America's collapse is overwhelmingly obvious. They desperately need a distraction, an external boogieman which they can blame for Trump's failures in economic policy, foreign policy, and pandemic containment. So Pence and Pompeo dusts off the Yellow Peril playbook, and the white supremacist mini-Trumps in Australia and the UK are all too happy to oblige. I have been saying the primary conflict in this century is the clash of the civilizations for a few years. You don't have to bring racial tension into it because the Sinic civilization is not just the Han people. The different people live on the East Asia continent are really connected with the same shared culture instead of ethnicity. The US obviously has different ethinic groups. However if you want you can make it a racial conflict with the 5 eyes countries representing the same Anglephone heritage and China representing the "Confucian" people. And yes the "Northern Europeans" will be on Team US and the Persians/East Africans will be on Team China.
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Jul 14, 2020 19:36
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Atrocious Joe posted:The idea that the major countries of the world are too intertwined by capitalist relations to have a major conflict that disrupts the global economy was also common prior to WW1. I didn't say it's impossible for the US and China to have a war. I just don't foresee them carving the world into separate economic spheres like what happened post-WW2
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Jul 14, 2020 19:37
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stephenthinkpad posted:I have been saying the primary conflict in this century is the clash of the civilizations for a few years. You don't have to bring racial tension into it because the Sinic civilization is not just the Han people. The different people live on the East Asia continent are really connected with the same shared culture instead of ethnicity. The US obviously has different ethinic groups. how does it feel to be constantly wrong, mr Huntington?
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Jul 14, 2020 19:39
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I believe that as America continues to gently caress up, China will use the space to become more imperialistic towards its neighbors. Xinjiang was conquered under Mao and is still being pacified. Same with Tibet. Next will be Taiwan, a bunch of islands, and various pieces of India/Cambodia/Nepal/etc. I don't know that they'll ever have to use force in Cambodia or Nepal tho cuz they already have unquestioned economic dominance in those nations.
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Jul 14, 2020 19:55
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Regarding the retreat of globalization, or deglobalization. It will only happen very limited degree. You can group industry into business that you can decouple and business that's impossible to decouple. For example, things like military industries, they have always been decoupled. There is no shared technology and there is no law to protect you tech either. And then you have industries that have so few critical tech in it that it doesn't matter if they are globalized. For example, most of the consumer products, run on razor sharp margin and there is no point to decouple and make your daily expenses higher. Energy sector, it's very critical and major countries treat it as a military strategic asset anyway. Energy security has always been a big part of China's long term strategic, since China rely on energy import more than the US. Thing like semiconductor, I think its one of those industries that's impossible to decouple. The competing power will just have to find a way to share it begrudgingly. For example, last year, only TSMC's fab in Taiwan can do 5nm chips. Can US really make Taiwan to stop making top of the line soc for China? If TSMC do that they won't make enough money to upgrade their fab since China is the biggest market for smartphones. So really China and US have to find a way to share the third party resource in this industry. The US can use their control of the patent lead to cripple China partially but not totally shut China out of it.
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Jul 14, 2020 19:57
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sincx has issued a correction as of 05:30 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Jul 14, 2020 22:56
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Why would the PLA stop at the HK island border and honor the colonial agreement? If China doesn't care about keeping the prosperity of HK economy, they can march in and annex HK any time they want. See India taking over Goa. Edit, I am listening to the HK yellow ribbon youtubers talking about the HK "trail election" today and they are still acting like they can win the LegCo and CCP won't have the balls to DQ them "under US pressure. " On the contrary I think that's exactly whats going to happen. In Sep the yellow ribbons will win the majority of Legco, and CCP will DQ all of the elected fresh faced lawmakers who participated in last year's protest. The harder US pressure China in SCS, the harder CCP will clam down on anti establishment lawmakers. CCP is treating the "HK theater" part of the protracted war against the US. stephenthinkpad has issued a correction as of 01:48 on Jul 15, 2020 |
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Jul 14, 2020 23:58
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http://www.locpg.gov.cn/jsdt/2020-07/13/c_1210700891.htm Tl;Dr CPC line: the primaries they're doing are illegal and everyone involved has broken the recently passed security law for seditious actions
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Jul 15, 2020 00:24
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I was looking for this last week, thank you
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Jul 15, 2020 00:28
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Grapplejack posted:http://www.locpg.gov.cn/jsdt/2020-07/13/c_1210700891.htm what exactly is illegal about a primary?
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Jul 15, 2020 00:30
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stephenthinkpad posted:As long as Trump doesn't remove HK from separate trade region status, these are just posturing. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/trump-signs-hong-kong-autonomy-act-trade-preferences-200714183911232.html quote:Trump signed an executive order revoking special trading status the US provided Hong Kong since 1997 when it reverted to China's control under a promised "One Country, Two Systems" principle.
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Jul 15, 2020 03:19
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gradenko_2000 posted:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/trump-signs-hong-kong-autonomy-act-trade-preferences-200714183911232.html From what I read on other article its still (potential) sanctions on officials and banks that do business with the officials. Like okay I think you are going to sanction Carrie Lam and her bank. And I am sure most HKers have an account with HSBC. However HSBC is basically an UK bank with 75% business in mainland. Is US really going to sanction HSBC?
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Jul 15, 2020 03:30
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US executive leadership has devoted the past week to mocking the one health official the public trusts during a worldwide pandemic. I'm not betting against them making dumb and reckless decisions.
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Jul 15, 2020 03:52
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“Safeguarding the interests of our Taiwan compatriots and expanding their well-being is the mainland's oft-repeated pledge and solemn promise of the new leaders of China's Communist Party central committee.” -ancient Chinese proverb
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Jul 15, 2020 03:54
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Listen here mack, the atomic bomb is a paper tiger.
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Jul 15, 2020 04:05
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you're a lying, dog-faced, pony roader
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Jul 15, 2020 04:10
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The fish exists in the people like fish in water. Excuse me, I meant - I I I I - guerillas are the fish that get put into the water. And you can bet your drat house that the people put the fish into the water too.
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Jul 15, 2020 04:32
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Speaking of the decline, if not outright death of the US empire. What's this going to feel/look like to the average American worker?
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Jul 15, 2020 04:45
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sincx posted:
I am aware of all of this. When I lived in Wuhan pretty much every magazine vendor kiosk had TONS of different armchair strategist publications. It was the same way at every magazine kiosk. It surprised me that China has so many armchair strategists! I agree that the CCP would have a hell of a time taking Taiwan. I hope they never try. I've spent months in Taiwan and I love the whole country. It's the best version of China in the world today. That being said, I don't quite have faith that the CCP leadership are rational actors on the civilizational level. Even with America drowning, China's path forward will not be easy or smooth. The CCP derives most of its legitimacy from the amazing economic gains they've delivered to their people. If this extraordinary growth slows down then it's easy to see a timeline where Xi & Co lean into nationalism and armed conflict to maintain their legitimacy. Lots of Chinese would die invading Taiwan. That doesn't mean Xi wouldn't do it to keep the party in power. EDIT: It's also my understanding that China has the whole island covered by tons of artillery and missile launchers, kinda like North Korea and Seoul. If push comes to shove they don't have to invade at all. They can just leave the island a smouldering ruin as a warning to anyone else who would try to divide the nation. I don't think this is likely tho because it would (hopefully) lead to the PRC becoming an international pariah. NaanViolence has issued a correction as of 05:20 on Jul 15, 2020 |
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Jul 15, 2020 05:16
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Taiwan still holds regular exercises for obvious reasons. The yearly interception one was held very recently. Nationalists in Taiwan still bemoan the fact that mandatory conscription has been cut down severely, I believe it is four months of training to serve as reserve now as opposed to a year in service. http://taiwanenglishnews.com/pac-3-missiles-deployed-in-taipei-zoo-carpark-ahead-of-nation-wide-military-exercise/
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Jul 15, 2020 06:27
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Taiwan also has its own surface to surface missile force so it's not like china can just blockade it with zero domestic consequences.
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Jul 15, 2020 06:40
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The PLA has been making preparations for an invasion. They've got probably the most advanced amphib tanks in the world (not hard, it's not really a thing most other countries have much use for). They've also bought up all of Ukraine's Zubr class hovercrafts. These are huge landing hovercrafts that are way too big to be carried in any of the amphib attack carriers that any country is building, and they only carry enough fuel for about 500km i.e. a round trip across the Taiwan strait. The only other possible uses are a soviet amphibious landing across the Black sea or the intermediate or something. Anything can be done these days with enough airpower.
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Jul 15, 2020 06:43
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| # ? Jun 9, 2024 22:14 |
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China can do whatever they want, they have nukes and are on the security council. There's no real way to stop them from just bombing and occupying Taiwan if they want other than US military promises and sanctions, but it's likely no one will follow through on the latter If anything is stopping China it's because they'd look bad taking the island by force.
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Jul 15, 2020 07:12
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