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Paradoxish posted:This also isn't quite right. Some of those people will be hospitalized, because there's basically no group that doesn't have at least some risk of severe outcomes with covid. Which is, of course, why it's not a loving "common cold." The imperial study (which is still probably quite errory, but seems most sensible overall) seems to show that when you adjust for breakthroughs and reinfections omicron might be 2-12% less intrinsically severe. As you mentioned, some percentage of breakthroughs and reinfections will be hospitalized. Even if that happened to roughly balance with some slightly reduced intrinsic severity, it's still much worse than advertised. It's going to spread on a scale everyone is totally unprepared for.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:28 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 05:27 |
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:28 |
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:My heart breaks for the kids, it really does. It sucks that they're missing out on some of the fun social experiences that should be part and parcel of this period of their lives. I mean I have been an introverted nerd my whole life, and even I can't imagine how loving devastated as a teen I'd have been if I had to deal with this poo poo (not to mention the anxiety about the future and my own wellbeing, of course). I mentioned how I got my teaching certification just before all this happened, and yeah, I'd be lying if I said it was not a day that went by, but it's definitely not a week that goes by where I don't think about my students and how hosed this is for them. They were a great bunch of kids, and they deserve so much better than this. they're almost all going to be dead of starvation or flood waters in a couple decades or so no matter what
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:29 |
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Doctor posted:https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1474246701900779520?s=20 Center for Disease Collaboration
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:29 |
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Doctor posted:https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1474246701900779520?s=20 I'm not sticking my nose out of my door unless the disease burns out or we get a cure
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:29 |
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sometimes i like to go to international airports during a deadly plague and just hang out, ya knmow
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:29 |
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Business Gorillas posted:my guess is its the same reason people get really mad about masks & respirators in particular: its an admission that things aren't normal It's also insanely bad for kids at population scale, I think about 1/3 of kids just didn't do any remote or any other schooling and were feral or worked last year and lmao
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:30 |
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bowser posted:Somewhere out there there's a bizarro Wang Commander who has been infected 40 times and is on a mission to achieve the perfect "natural immunity". I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:30 |
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crepeface posted:glad u have some humour about this because i found a possible future av for you but thought it might be too ghoulish to share you might not like it but this is what max titers looks like
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:30 |
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Atrocious Joe posted:Biden is demonstrating a world historical level of unpreparedness biden didnt even give a poo poo during his presidential campaign. when covid started he stopped campaigning entirely for like three months and when they decided to start campaigning again he just did video calls from his house until the debates his vp selection was the best preview of his presidency since he dragged it out two or three times longer than it should have been and he was extremely indecisive the whole time. the indecision between klobb, harris, whitmer, susan rice, and warren was very publicly broadcasted as campaign insiders would leak multiple times a week to politico or whoever that one of them was looking good in the last couple days
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:31 |
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Doctor posted:wtf is with these people so insanely against online learning like dude I am a freakin prof and remote learning is an easy pass if you just do the minimum level of effort and turn things in on time I don't loving get it I would've thought I'd won the drat lottery if I got to stay home and do my degree from my bed like spare yourself all the drat stress I just don't get it remote school exposed a ton of parents as psychopaths Also to some degree did away with the idea that choosing to have kids is actually a personal decision without broader social implications, and that's loving people up. Any parent in the US who isn't insanely rich needs to rely on the system to a substantial degree, and COVID made it clear that the system just does not give one single gently caress about you or your kids. The strain on the public school system is only going to get worse and that's going to make it harder and harder to be a parent in the US. That's understandably creating a lot of stress.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:31 |
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Rutibex posted:I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild Man imagine the scale of misery if we brewed up our own Marek's disease, because lmfao
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:31 |
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:I have nothing but empathy and heartache for the children, but all these ghoulish parents saying they want the schools open can go gently caress off and die in a fire because god loving dammit what kind of monster has so little regard for the loving lives of their children? This is what I think every time I see parents and their kid in the grocery store, not a mask to be seen.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:31 |
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Slider posted:sometimes i like to go to international airports during a deadly plague and just hang out, ya knmow my brother is leaving on a plane for Japan tomorrow and is having none of my warnings, shrug.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:32 |
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Rutibex posted:I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild I think they all died with covid that had been put through 20 rounds of serial passage selecting for rodent lethality.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:33 |
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Rutibex posted:I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2787736/
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:33 |
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one of the dudes in that exchange was so mad about virtual school that he said "I'm sure we can find plenty of young twenty somethings to instruct in person if the older teachers can't do it." god he's such a piece of poo poo
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:33 |
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has anyone ever noticed that the lyrics to katy perry's never really over are uncannily applicable to covid?
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:34 |
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zone posted:Man imagine the scale of misery if we brewed up our own Marek's disease, because lmfao I mean that's the best case scenario. The current route of 'no NPIs, vaccines only' has really only two probable - perhaps even possible - outcomes; Marek's disease or ADE. The former would be bad but the latter would probably be genuinely an existential threat to the human race, not merely to industrial civilization (outside of China).
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:35 |
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😡 Normal
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:36 |
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Rutibex posted:I think they did a study where 100% of rats died after being infected with covid at least 20 times. should only take 5 or so years before all of us are turned to soup if they just keep letting covid go wild Rats only live like two years, you sure they didn't just die a natural death in the time it took them to infect them that much
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:36 |
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I understand the use of the Marek's comparison but it really does seem like so far the major mutations have been cropping up more and more in the utterly insane spread in low vaxx populations.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:36 |
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Doctor posted:wtf is with these people so insanely against online learning like dude I am a freakin prof and remote learning is an easy pass if you just do the minimum level of effort and turn things in on time I don't loving get it I would've thought I'd won the drat lottery if I got to stay home and do my degree from my bed like spare yourself all the drat stress I just don't get it online college sucks rear end because you pay full price tuition and you don't get to gently caress your classmates
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:37 |
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:My heart breaks for the kids, it really does. It sucks that they're missing out on some of the fun social experiences that should be part and parcel of this period of their lives. I mean I have been an introverted nerd my whole life, and even I can't imagine how loving devastated as a teen I'd have been if I had to deal with this poo poo (not to mention the anxiety about the future and my own wellbeing, of course). I mentioned how I got my teaching certification just before all this happened, and yeah, I'd be lying if I said it was not a day that went by, but it's definitely not a week that goes by where I don't think about my students and how hosed this is for them. They were a great bunch of kids, and they deserve so much better than this. as a teacher this is also my position also I am not going to teach past this year goodbye public service, it was real
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:37 |
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speng31b posted:Rats only live like two years, you sure they didn't just die a natural death in the time it took them to infect them that much I linked the study, unless I misunderstood it, they just basically let SARS1 run wild through a mouse population until they wound up with a variant that had a CFR of 70-100%. Thankfully that won't happen as a result of our choice to let SARS2 run wild through a human population because
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:38 |
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lmao university that kept hundreds of students in gymnasiums to take final exams predicts omicron tidal wave. https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1474249411345600519?s=20
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:38 |
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Shear Modulus posted:online college sucks rear end because you pay full price tuition and you don't get to gently caress your classmates Right I forgot about The College Experience
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:38 |
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DR FRASIER KRANG posted:one of the dudes in that exchange was so mad about virtual school that he said "I'm sure we can find plenty of young twenty somethings to instruct in person if the older teachers can't do it." lol yeah just lining up around the block
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:39 |
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DR FRASIER KRANG posted:one of the dudes in that exchange was so mad about virtual school that he said "I'm sure we can find plenty of young twenty somethings to instruct in person if the older teachers can't do it." the real funny part is that this guy has no idea how incredibly wrong he is
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:39 |
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:I mean that's the best case scenario. The current route of 'no NPIs, vaccines only' has really only two probable - perhaps even possible - outcomes; Marek's disease or ADE. The former would be bad but the latter would probably be genuinely an existential threat to the human race, not merely to industrial civilization (outside of China). *googles ADE* quote:Most diseases do not cause ADE, but one of the best studied examples of a pathogen that can cause ADE is dengue virus. Dengue virus is one of the most common infections in the world, infecting hundreds of millions and killing tens of thousands of people each year. Unlike viruses like measles or mumps that only have one type, dengue virus has four different forms, called “serotypes.” These serotypes are very similar, but slight differences among them set the stage for ADE. If a person is infected by one serotype of dengue virus, they typically have mild disease and generate a protective immune response, including neutralizing antibodies, against that serotype. But, if that person is infected with a second serotype of dengue virus, the neutralizing antibodies generated from the first infection may bind to the virus and actually increase the virus’s ability to enter cells, resulting in ADE and causing a severe form of the disease, called dengue hemorrhagic fever.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:40 |
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Doctor posted:Right I forgot about The College Experience The college experience is like a high point of a lot of people's lives for many many reasons and I think it's a losing argument to say "beep boop online school is inherently better" vs "we need to actually use NPIs to achieve zero covid"
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:41 |
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Captain Magic posted:as a teacher this is also my position I'm not employed as a teacher ATM because I was not going to risk my life unnecessarily for the pittance we make, and I even more importantly will not be party to murder and maiming if I can help it. I'm sort of holding out hope - LOL! - that as things continue there will be more demand for online tutors and/or that the wealthy start realizing they can benefit from just hiring a private teacher to teach their kids 1:1 over zoom rather than sending them to plaguepits or doing pleb online learning where you have one teacher dealing with a whole class. You know, as part of the social collapse of modern capitalism and the regression to earlier models, just go full on pre-modern education with private instructors teaching the children of the elite.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:41 |
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Wang Commander posted:I understand the use of the Marek's comparison but it really does seem like so far the major mutations have been cropping up more and more in the utterly insane spread in low vaxx populations.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:41 |
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We are approximately 3 months from every state going the way of Florida and Tennessee and just not reporting jack
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:41 |
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:I linked the study, unless I misunderstood it, they just basically let SARS1 run wild through a mouse population until they wound up with a variant that had a CFR of 70-100%. Such a variant would likely be outcompeted on a global stage. I think a sample size of a couple dozen rats in a box isn't a great model for "human extinction test".
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:42 |
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:I linked the study, unless I misunderstood it, they just basically let SARS1 run wild through a mouse population until they wound up with a variant that had a CFR of 70-100%. because viruses always become less fatal over time
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:43 |
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Wang Commander posted:We've been over this again and again. Unless something really drastic changes covid will not directly disable the workforce to the point things grind to a halt. It didn't even really manage to do so in India's Delta wave. i think omicron + pandemic fatigue + new years parties is going to do it. we will know by mid January
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:43 |
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cr0y posted:Such a variant would likely be outcompeted on a global stage. I think a sample size of a couple dozen rats in a box isn't a great model for "human extinction test". They were just exploring the evolutionary space for creating a really deadly mouse model virus I don't think it was meant to do anything except find a really nasty local maximum for mouse murdering. We can certainly take away from it that coronaviruses have a lot of room to maneuver but I think we know that pretty well already.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:43 |
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platzapS posted:Someone who knows more about international responses: Is the Biden admin "normal" or does it seem unusually "chill"/unprepared/resigned compared to like, Britain and Australia even? Biden is forcing folks to vaccinate or get fired, which is good - but too late, and the vaccines aren’t as useful as we’d hope. But it’s nice, my company is already enforcing it and everybody is vaccinated or on their way to getting fired. I think Germany has plans to mandate the vaccines but nothing actually started yet?
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:44 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 05:27 |
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If SARS-CoV-2 goes the way of Marek’s disease, there will be no more anti-vaxxers because they will literally be dead.
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# ? Dec 24, 2021 06:45 |