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Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

Delta-Wye posted:

hey just because i called it nature's vaccine doesn't mean i was implying it would prevent future infection. thats not what vaccine means ok??

Claim: The CDC said an Omicron infection would vaccinate against future variants.

We rate this claim FALSE.

Fact: The CDC said an Omicron infection was "nature's vaccine". As demonstrate by CDC research at the time, a natural infection offers very little protection against infection. Therefore "nature's vaccine" means an Omicron infection is functionally useless against future variants.

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Inspector Hound
Jul 14, 2003

https://twitter.com/MobyDickatSea/status/1487754224263913478?t=8FvABShr2CiLfsKlYkh6OA&s=19

Crazyweasel
Oct 29, 2006
lazy

MMania posted:

It keeps coming up here, but I haven’t actually read a single paper or study supporting the “new variants get created in immunocompromised people” theory. Since we’ve have respiratory and autoimmune diseases since, umm, forever, is this something we’re learning now that we’re finally putting real money into studying respiratory illnesses?

Or is it more “don’t blame the people in charge of the Covid response, blame poor black people?”

I don’t think there are any papers, it’s just kinda like a thought with some top scientists. I would trust their aspect is more objective “this is where the science I think will lead me” but it will definitely be weaponized by the Ghandi’s and poo poo if it turns out to be real

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1487108114344132611?s=20&t=9Fs5ahUgpqCCF8YzKqe7PA

kater
Nov 16, 2010

read covid thread so I can close my eyes and meditate on whatever ganglia turns stress into the brain numb juice

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

MMania posted:

It keeps coming up here, but I haven’t actually read a single paper or study supporting the “new variants get created in immunocompromised people” theory. Since we’ve have respiratory and autoimmune diseases since, umm, forever, is this something we’re learning now that we’re finally putting real money into studying respiratory illnesses?

Or is it more “don’t blame the people in charge of the Covid response, blame poor black people?”

We've had cases where immunocompromised were hospitalized with a COVID infection for a long time and the doctors tried dumping different convalescent plasma (edit: not mAbs as initially) into the patient until they stopped working after the virus mutated (which was confirmed by sequencing). We have also seen immunocompromised having infections for a long as time without convalescent plasma stated being injected, which seems to be a similar thing happening - though I don't think this has been confirmed by genetic sequencing.

It makes sense that it would rapidly evolve in the first scenario, I am not so sure about the second. What we do know is that Omicron has mutated more over the time frame than other variants.

My own little theory (as a complete layman), is that the modelling of mutation rates is premised on a much more tightly integrated society than rural Sub-Saharan Africa and we could see quite a large buildup of mutations due to long and sporadically intersecting transmission chains (and possibly some recombination on top). It isn't the first time we've seen very mutated variants pop up in Africa from seemingly nowhere (there was the Tanzanian cases).

Edit: I think BA.2 not being a variant of BA.1 leads some credence to this theory being more likely than Omicron coming from a single immunocompromised patient. Though I suppose zoonotic origin is also very possible.

2nd edit to be perfectly clear: I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, epidemiologist or anything of the nature.

Pingui fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Jan 30, 2022

itstime4lunch
Nov 3, 2005


clockin' around
the clock
So, from what I’m reading, the pandemic is basically over unless we keep getting new variants, which nobody can predict the likelihood of without wrinkling up their forehead and thinking real hard, so it’s not really even worth preparing for something like that to happen. Open ‘er up, long term immunity is just around the corner, becoming vaccinated against the original virus is this one weird trick to cheat death, and endemicity means thousands of daily deaths in every country. It’s really incumbent on each individual to learn to live with COVID and cease all risk avoidance while we fall back into our pre-pandemic consumer patterns.

blatman
May 10, 2009

14 inc dont mez


imagine how much it might cost if we did slightly too much to defend against the viral onslaught, instead we should collapse healthcare and the economy and kill countless people

DickParasite
Dec 2, 2004


Slippery Tilde

MMania posted:

It keeps coming up here, but I haven’t actually read a single paper or study supporting the “new variants get created in immunocompromised people” theory. Since we’ve have respiratory and autoimmune diseases since, umm, forever, is this something we’re learning now that we’re finally putting real money into studying respiratory illnesses?

Or is it more “don’t blame the people in charge of the Covid response, blame poor black people?”

Case studies C19 mutating in immunocompromised patients:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34319130/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-mutated-in-immunocompromised-patient-after-plasma-therapy-case-study-1.5298356

welp posted:

  • Patients with hematologic malignancies are at risk of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection.
  • Using anti-SRAS-CoV-2 antibody preparations in immunocompromised patients may lead to the evolution of antibody-resistant SRAS-CoV-2 infections.
  • Antibody-resistant SRAS-CoV-2 infections might have severe epidemiological implications.

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?
And then there is the Molnupiravir theory which is a laugh riot if it turns out to be the case...

Blitter
Mar 16, 2011

Intellectual
AI Enthusiast

MMania posted:

It keeps coming up here, but I haven’t actually read a single paper or study supporting the “new variants get created in immunocompromised people” theory. Since we’ve have respiratory and autoimmune diseases since, umm, forever, is this something we’re learning now that we’re finally putting real money into studying respiratory illnesses?

Or is it more “don’t blame the people in charge of the Covid response, blame poor black people?”

There is a horrifying paper documenting the kind of constant mutation that can occur during persistent infection, from dec 2020.


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2031364 posted:

A  45-year-old man with severe antiphospholipid syndrome complicated by diffuse alveolar hemorrhage, who was receiving anticoagulation therapy, glucocorticoids, cyclophosphamide, and intermittent rituximab and eculizumab, was admitted to the hospital with fever. On day 0, Covid-19 was diagnosed by SARS-CoV-2 (RT-PCR) assay of a nasopharyngeal swab specimen, and the patient received a 5-day course of remdesivir. Glucocorticoid doses were increased because of suspected diffuse alveolar hemorrhage. He was discharged on day 5 without a need for supplemental oxygen.

From day 6 through day 68, the patient quarantined alone at home, but during the quarantine period, he was hospitalized three times for abdominal pain and once for fatigue and dyspnea. The admissions were complicated by hypoxemia that caused concern for recurrent diffuse alveolar hemorrhage and was treated with increased doses of glucocorticoids. SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values increased to 37.8 on day 39, which suggested resolving infection.

On day 72 (4 days into another hospital admission for hypoxemia), RT-PCR assay of a nasopharyngeal swab was positive, with a Ct value of 27.6, causing concern for a recurrence of Covid-19. The patient again received remdesivir (a 10-day course), and subsequent RT-PCR assays were negative.

On day 105, the patient was admitted for cellulitis.

On day 111, hypoxemia developed, ultimately requiring treatment with high-flow oxygen. Given the concern for recurrent diffuse alveolar hemorrhage, the patient’s immunosuppression was escalated.

On day 128, the RT-PCR Ct value was 32.7, which caused concern for a second Covid-19 recurrence, and the patient was given another 5-day course of remdesivir. A subsequent RT-PCR assay was negative. Given continued respiratory decline and concern for ongoing diffuse alveolar hemorrhage, the patient was treated with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous cyclophosphamide, and daily ruxolitinib, in addition to glucocorticoids.

On day 143, the RT-PCR Ct value was 15.6, which caused concern for a third recurrence of Covid-19. The patient received a SARS-CoV-2 antibody cocktail against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (Regeneron). 

On day 150, he underwent endotracheal intubation because of hypoxemia. A bronchoalveolar-lavage specimen on day 151 revealed an RT-PCR Ct value of 15.8 and grew Aspergillus fumigatus. The patient received remdesivir and antifungal agents.

On day 154, he died from shock and respiratory failure.



What a nightmare.

:smith:

Grand Theft Autobot
Feb 28, 2008

I'm something of a fucking idiot myself
But have we considered that people die every year?

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

itstime4lunch posted:

So, from what I’m reading, the pandemic is basically over unless we keep getting new variants, which nobody can predict the likelihood of without wrinkling up their forehead and thinking real hard, so it’s not really even worth preparing for something like that to happen. Open ‘er up, long term immunity is just around the corner, becoming vaccinated against the original virus is this one weird trick to cheat death, and endemicity means thousands of daily deaths in every country. It’s really incumbent on each individual to learn to live with COVID and cease all risk avoidance while we fall back into our pre-pandemic consumer patterns.

you sound like you don't want to go spend money/hate freedom

SplitSoul
Dec 31, 2000

:denmark: down to 36K cases for Sunday, COVID is over. Really over for 21 people.

two-time fee
Jan 13, 2022
Little field report from us trying to hold the second line of defense against Omicron here at my place.

Patient zero (npi fatgiued wife) became symptomatic 10 days ago. She was first removed and subsequently reinserted into the biome on day 6, after her having agreed to submit to isolation within a negative pressure room I set up that also benefited from a corsi cube. She was allowed to leave the room wearing N95 to help with children schooling and light tasks, as she felt very fatigued and in need of rest throughout. She is feeling much better now.

I became symptomatic 5 days ago (likely due to pre-symptomatic exposure to spouse), limited up til now to sniffles, mild cough, and slightly elevated heart rate. I have slept outside in a tent and been showering in my source-controlled respirator. Took up lion's share of the household tasks for the duration, as well as maintaining wfh pretty much full time. Prepared meals in vinyl gloves etc...

Both children -a teen and a ten year old- have continued going to school (as mandated by our government), wearing KF94's and they both are eating lunch outside.
Absenteeism in our kids' classes has risen to 40%.

They remain, as of yet, both negative.

Financial burden for all npi and other associated costs in the last ten days, all combined, upwards of 600 Euros.

Morale has been an issue at times, but no big breakdowns yet, the siege continues. OG Omicron has not peaked locally yet. About 9.5% of the population currently has it.
When my defense finally gives out, strongly considering going Ted K. (the crazy hermit in the woods part, not the mailbombing so much)

two-time fee fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Jan 30, 2022

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

SplitSoul posted:

:denmark: down to 36K cases for Sunday, COVID is over. Really over for 21 people.

Last Sunday:
PCR-tests
228,118
Antigen tests
169,416
PCR-confirmed cases total
42,018
PCR-confirmed new cases
39,263
Reinfections
2,755
Deaths
12
New hospitalizations
215

COVID is over! Never mind that testing in Copenhagen was shut down yesterday

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Multiple states have banned mask mandates and it’s good to see that they don’t even acknowledge that.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Delta-Wye posted:

hey just because i called it nature's vaccine doesn't mean i was implying it would prevent future infection. thats not what vaccine means ok??

Oh no!

Blue MAGA arguments are undergoing recombination!

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

Glumwheels posted:

How are we better protected, 2-3k people are dying a day still. Where are those therapeutics helping those people? Under 5s (broken record I know) aren’t vaccinated so how are we helping them?

These idiots live in a fantasy world

it’s very “i’ll start the wiki” energy like we see in crypto where someone throws an idea out there that while technically possible (like helping the unbanked) would require people to actually do a lot of work to achieve it but all anyone ever does is maybe start a wiki. then everyone acts like the idea has been achieved because that’s good for bitcoin.

better masks exist, that’s the same as everyone using them
better tests exist, that’s the same as them being widely and equitably available
more understanding of covid, this understanding makes it less bad (please ignore the number of cases and deaths per day)
more sequencing, when you start with barely any it’s easy to do more

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

Blitter posted:

There is a horrifying paper documenting the kind of constant mutation that can occur during persistent infection, from dec 2020.

(..)

What a nightmare.

:smith:

The issue with this case as it applies to the evolution of Omicron, is that this is a patient actively treated with injected antibodies and therefore actively subjecting the virus to evolutionary pressure in different directions. An immunocompromised patient left to heal on their own, would presumably apply little - if any - pressure.

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

yoloer420 posted:

https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.25.22269794

Bad news everybody, omicron won't end the pandemic by infecting everyone and making them immune. Who knew?

quote:

In uninfected, non-boosted individuals, VLP neutralization titers to Delta and Omicron were reduced 2.7-fold and 15.4-fold, respectively, compared to wild-type (WT), while boosted individuals (n=23) had 18-fold increased titers. Delta breakthrough infections (n=39) had 57-fold and 3.1-fold titers whereas Omicron breakthrough infections (n=14) had 5.8-fold and 0.32-fold titers compared to uninfected non-boosted and boosted individuals, respectively.

hahaha omicron only increases resistance to omicron by 0.32 gently caress

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

blatman posted:

imagine how much it might cost if we did slightly too much to defend against the viral onslaught, instead we should collapse healthcare and the economy and kill countless people

Look, those seventy‐five million dollars that it would take to gear up to manufacture three billion masks per month, that money could buy like fifteen more M1 Abrams for the Army to park in the desert.

mycomancy
Oct 16, 2016

Dren posted:

hahaha omicron only increases resistance to omicron by 0.32 gently caress

It just owns how loving stupid everything and everyone is.

Spoondick
Jun 9, 2000

MMania posted:

It keeps coming up here, but I haven’t actually read a single paper or study supporting the “new variants get created in immunocompromised people” theory. Since we’ve have respiratory and autoimmune diseases since, umm, forever, is this something we’re learning now that we’re finally putting real money into studying respiratory illnesses?

Or is it more “don’t blame the people in charge of the Covid response, blame poor black people?”

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2104756

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Thoguh
Nov 8, 2002

College Slice

Glumwheels posted:

How are we better protected, 2-3k people are dying a day still. Where are those therapeutics helping those people? Under 5s (broken record I know) aren’t vaccinated so how are we helping them?

These idiots live in a fantasy world

The comment about therapeutics reminds me of when the vaccine became available to a very short list of groups a year ago and a bunch of people decided COVID was over because we have vaccines now. That they wouldn’t be able to get their own jab for another four months wasn’t relevant.

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

Dren posted:

hahaha omicron only increases resistance to omicron by 0.32 gently caress

"The natural vaccine is multi-dose; that is actually very common for vaccinations and therefore nothing to worry about." - Chise, probably

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Dren posted:

hahaha omicron only increases resistance to omicron by 0.32 gently caress

That line is bad, but in a different way than you are reading it.

What it’s saying is that surviving Omicron after two shots gives a person way less antibodies even against Omicron than just getting the dang booster.

Max Titers is the luckiest man alive.

e: We’re both wrong. Mystes is right, below.

Platystemon fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Jan 30, 2022

Iron Crowned
May 6, 2003

by Hand Knit
One day I will die

durrneez
Feb 20, 2013

I like fish. I like to eat fish. I like to brush fish with a fish hairbrush. Do you like fish too?

mycomancy posted:

It just owns how loving stupid everything and everyone is.

durrneez
Feb 20, 2013

I like fish. I like to eat fish. I like to brush fish with a fish hairbrush. Do you like fish too?

Iron Crowned posted:

One day I will die

ngl, im looking fwd to the sweet release of death. living is cool, too, and im in a good place mentally. just loving sucks to exist sometimes.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

two-time fee posted:

Patient zero (npi fatgiued wife) became symptomatic 10 days ago. She was first removed and subsequently reinserted into the biome

lol

Spoondick
Jun 9, 2000

hmmmmmmmmmmm

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Did I miss this image in here or was it only in the BC thread?

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?
To the goons in the spreadsheet, with kids:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/30/us/child-custody-battles-covid-cec/index.html posted:

Parents are fighting over Covid vaccines and masks in divorce court

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

https://mobile.twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1487767318902054919

You hate to see it folks. Even our heroes will succumb to the mass media propaganda push.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Platystemon posted:

That line is bad, but in a different way than you are reading it.

What it’s saying is that surviving Omicron after two shots gives a person way less antibodies even against Omicron than just getting the dang booster.

Max Titers is the luckiest man alive.
Isn't this just saying that Omicron breakthrough infection increases titers against wild type in 2 dose vaccinated people by 6x which is .3x as much as much as a booster? It's slightly confusing because there are other parts where they seem to be looking at titers against omicron but I'm not sure if that was true in the thing they are describing in this specific line.

The full preprint was linked from that abstract and is here if anyone who understands this poo poo can look at it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.25.22269794v1.full.pdf

mystes fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Jan 30, 2022

Dren
Jan 5, 2001

Pillbug

Platystemon posted:

That line is bad, but in a different way than you are reading it.

What it’s saying is that surviving Omicron after two shots gives a person way less antibodies even against Omicron than just getting the dang booster.

Max Titers is the luckiest man alive.

i know titers != immunity but a 0.32 fold increase in omicron antibodies is pretty loving bad, right? the delta-associated increases are huge in comparison

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster

coke posted:

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1487554759145963520

endless waves every month???

eventually all the waves combine so it reaches some sort of equilibrium of high amount of cases and death

lol lmao

lol Leonardis rosy glasses about what people think is happening



"we're immune" messaging starts as soon as growth starts to decline ahead of the peak

Gildiss
Aug 24, 2010

Grimey Drawer

NeonPunk posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/denise_dewald/status/1487767318902054919

You hate to see it folks. Even our heroes will succumb to the mass media propaganda push.

Lmao
neolib schooling and propaganda is so strong, it basically bursts from peoples heads like las plagas from RE4 and tries to scythe you down if you mention anything outside the current messaging.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

fosborb posted:

lol Leonardis rosy glasses about what people think is happening



"we're immune" messaging starts as soon as growth starts to decline ahead of the peak

It's also hilarious how the media keeps on pitching the "natural immunity" narrative despite the lack of any scientific evidence.

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mystes
May 31, 2006

I think this is the part from the preprint that those numbers come from:

quote:

In contrast to Delta, Omicron breakthrough infections (n=14), of which only 1 was boosted, exhibited much smaller increases in baseline WT titers, 5.8-fold those from non-boosted individuals and only to about one-third of the titers from boosted individuals (Figure 1A and 2B, top left).
So I think as I said it's just saying that omicron breakthrough infections don't raise titers against wild type as much as a booster and you all are just completely running wild with your imagination on this.

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