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I don't believe anything has happened that Putin didn't expect to happen. And not a single Russian boot has taken a step back.
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Feb 16, 2022 01:52
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Herstory Begins Now posted:yeah, i was just taking the opportunity to make a joke at their expense Ohhh sorry lol it went right by me
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Feb 16, 2022 01:53
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Conspiratiorist posted:I don't believe anything has happened that Putin didn't expect to happen. It must be those famous Russian blocking detachments again
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Feb 16, 2022 01:57
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*crickets*
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Feb 16, 2022 02:41
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https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1493744616448970755 "I'm not touching you."
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Feb 16, 2022 02:46
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Horizon Burning posted:*crickets* Care to elaborate?
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Feb 16, 2022 02:48
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1493744616448970755 Well, that, but it's also probably aimed at maximizing whatever concessions can be wrung out of Ukraine and NATO: "Look at what we've got going here. Look at how much damage we could do if we wanted to. It would be wise to give us what we're asking for if you don't want to keep dealing with this year after year."
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Feb 16, 2022 02:58
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Majorian posted:Well, that, but it's also probably aimed at maximizing whatever concessions can be wrung out of Ukraine and NATO: "Look at what we've got going here. Look at how much damage we could do if we wanted to. It would be wise to give us what we're asking for if you don't want to keep dealing with this year after year." I agree, with the caveat it's not mutually exclusive with launching an actual attack: they could have dunno Scholz broker a "peace deal" that exchanges Ukraine dropping its NATO aspirations, giving up the territories they lost to the Russians and separatists, and opening NS2 in exchange for not committing to a wider invasion (that they likely weren't going to do anyway, but had the capability to pursue).
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Feb 16, 2022 03:07
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Not sure how much appeasement is going to work after 2014. Nah I'm sure when Russia gets its concessions it wont ask for more down the road.
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Feb 16, 2022 03:15
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When we're at the point where Ukrainian metro areas are being shelled it's not appeasement.
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Feb 16, 2022 03:17
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If Russia is soo afraid of NATO it could just bring back the warsaw pact. What nobody wanted to be in the warsaw pact? wonder why.
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Feb 16, 2022 03:34
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I'd expect US intelligence to have seen this footage as the bridge was being built. So with that in mind. How much or the "us is exaggerating Russian war prep", is actually true? How much other poo poo that we can't see is happening?
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Feb 16, 2022 03:35
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Despera posted:Not sure how much appeasement is going to work after 2014. Nah I'm sure when Russia gets its concessions it wont ask for more down the road. That's realpolitik for you. Unless you can think of a way to keep them from asking for more concessions down the road?
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Feb 16, 2022 03:44
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:I'd expect US intelligence to have seen this footage as the bridge was being built. They've got SIGINT and a probably much more accurate collated estimation of overall numbers and distribution of Russian forces pre-mobilization, so... not that much, honestly, in so far as what's relevant at this stage of the game. But we do know they were alarmed as early as October, given Bill Burns met Putin in Moscow specifically to talk about the build up around Ukraine when the assembled forces were about half the current confirmed numbers.
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Feb 16, 2022 03:45
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Conspiratiorist posted:https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1493744616448970755 Ah, a Friendship Bridge!
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Feb 16, 2022 06:24
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https://twitter.com/SammyDChef/status/1493760302621601792?s=20&t=JsjABuOln1W2d9ak-dC5fQ "Unusually busy" lol
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Feb 16, 2022 06:41
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Hanno posted:https://twitter.com/SammyDChef/status/1493760302621601792?s=20&t=JsjABuOln1W2d9ak-dC5fQ That's some great SIGINT discipline you have there, Putin.
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Feb 16, 2022 06:52
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KillHour posted:That's some great SIGINT discipline you have there, Putin. At this point the macro SIGINT is pretty much cable news for the world. It's all done with the purpose to send a message.
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Feb 16, 2022 06:59
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Majorian posted:Personally, he's going to make billions from the MIC, and the Russian media will spin it as a victory against NATO. The whole episode has successfully distracted his audience from his disastrous handling of COVID, and his approval among voters and oligarchs alike will increase. In the meantime, Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO now (it wasn't going to be able to join anyway, but this further solidifies it), and I'd be shocked if France and Germany allowed any other country to join for the foreseeable future. He's also demonstrated to Ukraine that he can make their lives miserable without even invading. This was a big win for Putin. Not seeing it as a "big win" for Putin, antagonized everyone even more, Russia's domestic market freaked out, foreign investors pulled out. The west managed a collective response against many doubts. Now its very clear that NATO should be an anti-Russian alliance again because this poo poo sucks. As for Russian domestic situation this is going to be like mini Crimea. After all the emotions calm down everyone will realize that life is even worse now and nothing was gained. Majorian posted:That's realpolitik for you. Unless you can think of a way to keep them from asking for more concessions down the road? Sure. Just don't give them any in the first place? Sekenr fucked around with this message at 07:25 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 07:21
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Sekenr posted:Not seeing it as a "big win" for Putin, antagonized everyone even more, Russia's domestic market freaked out, foreign investors pulled out. The west managed a collective response against many doubts. Now its very clear that NATO should be an anti-Russian alliance again because this poo poo sucks. I don't think Putin cares who he antagonizes, as long as they'll still do business with his government. Much of Western Europe is still dependent on Russian energy, and China just signed what will probably be an incredibly lucrative deal with them. As far as NATO is concerned, he's demonstrated pretty conclusively that most of the alliance does not want to be dragged into a war with Russia, which is why countries like Ukraine will never be allowed in. quote:As for Russian domestic situation this is going to be like mini Crimea. After all the emotions calm down everyone will realize that life is even worse now and nothing was gained. Putin's approval rating actually stayed high after Crimea for several years - they only began to collapse with pension reform and raising the retirement age in 2018. As of this month, they've bounced back thanks in part to the Ukraine situation., and they'll probably only improve over the coming months. It won't last forever, but political goodwill rarely does. quote:Sure. Just don't give them any in the first place? Okay, then get used to things like this continuing to happen, I guess?  e: \/\/\/yeah, I mean, Russia is an empire. Empires behave dickishly, especially crumbling ones. The U.S. does poo poo like this all the time, too. This isn't Munich in 1938; this is the Falklands in 1982, and the U.S. and Russia are two bald men fighting over a comb. Majorian fucked around with this message at 08:05 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 07:41
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Majorian posted:Okay, then get used to things like this continuing to happen, I guess? why can't they saber rattle quietly?!
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Feb 16, 2022 07:52
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Fame Douglas posted:You do realize this is something you made up, right? Both didn't subject themselves to Russian Covid testing, but the "genome sequencing" part you invented. 6 second. Literally 6 loving seconds https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-kept-macron-distance-snubbing-covid-demands-sources-2022-02-10/
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Feb 16, 2022 08:02
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1493841466938265600 pack it up folks, threads done
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Feb 16, 2022 08:09
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1493841466938265600 i'm confused and it's late. russia blink?
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Feb 16, 2022 08:30
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Majorian posted:
Sure, but Crimea was a tangible win of sorts. Russia gained exactly that - Crimea. Right now they gained a whole lot of nothing, unless you count non-NATO Ukraine but they were never going to be admitted until Crimea and LDNR situations are resolved and these don't require any of this noise just keep the status quo. There is nothing about it for Russians to be happy about. quote:
Why would he stop doing things like that if they get him concessions? He'll only stop if these shenanigans gain him nothing
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Feb 16, 2022 08:32
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Deviant posted:i'm confused and it's late. russia blink? or they're bullshitting. who knows!
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Feb 16, 2022 08:33
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Wait, are they saying the troops are leaving to go back east or are they saying they're leaving Russia to invade Ukraine?
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Feb 16, 2022 08:35
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https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1493686750882975756?s=20&t=eaDscJzQtqRu4_f3sw_bzg Ze didn't budge on the issue which is good. This would've been a major win without having to do anything
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Feb 16, 2022 08:52
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pippy posted:Wait, are they saying the troops are leaving to go back east or are they saying they're leaving Russia to invade Ukraine? they were never going to invade ukraine proper because that would've been *incredibly stupid* and a break with everything we know about putin's hard-power MO to date. this whole thing has been an exercise in positioning and sabre-rattling to exploit an unstable situation. if nord stream 2 ends up getting approved, putin's probably happy; if it doesn't, the US is probably happy. so long as there's not an effective veto on ukrainian and georgian NATO membership they ukranian and georgian breakaway regions will remain as breakaway regions. i have a lot of sympathy for zelenskij's reluctance to implement minsk 2, since it would be playing with fire and very possibly trigger a coup, but it's the only thing on the table which would make the situation stable and so it makes sense that the european powers would push for it.
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Feb 16, 2022 09:31
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Moscow interpretation of Minsk agreements is utter comedy. These “separatist” regions are staffed by Russian soldiers, and ruled by Russian citizens, down to United Russia membership cards personally presented to them by Medvedev. Hell, Borodai, the first “prime minister” of DNR, is a sitting member of the Russian parliament. Yet at the same time Moscow pretends this is an internal conflict of Ukraine.
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Feb 16, 2022 09:33
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V. Illych L. posted:i have a lot of sympathy for zelenskij's reluctance to implement minsk 2, since it would be playing with fire and very possibly trigger a coup, but it's the only thing on the table which would make the situation stable and so it makes sense that the european powers would push for it. The only thing that would make the situation stable is ending the war and only one side of the conflict can do that
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Feb 16, 2022 09:36
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pippy posted:Wait, are they saying the troops are leaving to go back east or are they saying they're leaving Russia to invade Ukraine? They are saying that forces in Crimea are leaving training grounds, while showing a single unit boarding a rail line that can either take them back to Russia or towards the Ukrainian border. These are also Southern Military District units so returning them to Russia only circles them back around to the Ukrainian border, as well. Everything they've pushed to forward positions remains untouched. More forces continue arriving sporadically.
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Feb 16, 2022 09:38
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CMYK BLYAT! posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1493841466938265600 nope if you find the actual article, which they didn't link but one's here, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-invasion-news-putin-biden-war-b2016104.html they're pulling some troops out of crimea (to where?) but leaving the other threatening troops in place somewhat efb
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Feb 16, 2022 09:41
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Sekenr posted:Sure, but Crimea was a tangible win of sorts. Russia gained exactly that - Crimea. Right now they gained a whole lot of nothing, unless you count non-NATO Ukraine but they were never going to be admitted until Crimea and LDNR situations are resolved and these don't require any of this noise just keep the status quo. There is nothing about it for Russians to be happy about. This is one of those things where there doesn't necessarily have to be material gain for Russians to be happy about it. Revanchism is a helluva drug. Believing that they can once again stand toe-to-toe with the U.S. and NATO, who they (quite fairly) blame for humiliating and immiserating their country in the 90s, is a victory. You know how Trump hasn't brought his constituency very much in terms of actual material gains, and yet they love him because he owns/terrifies the libs? It's kind of like that, except Putin has also improved the overall Russian standard of living from when he took office (although that's obviously a low bar to clear). quote:Why would he stop doing things like that if they get him concessions? He'll only stop if these shenanigans gain him nothing That's not really the lesson of history, though. Russia largely played by the rules throughout the 90s and early 00s. They let 1/3 of their empire break away without much of a fuss, allowed the IMF and World Bank to restructure their economy, engaged in the arms control regime in good faith, and even tried to join NATO. What did they get out of it? Economic collapse, a plummeting life expectancy, military embarrassments left and right, and a sad alcoholic clown presiding over it all, with the U.S.' not-terribly-subtle backing. When Putin came to power, he tried to get arms control back on track, offered his full support for Bush's War on Terror, and generally tried to create an image of Russia as the eastern bookend of European civilization (insert famous Gandhi quote about European civilization here). What did Russia get for these efforts? Brushed aside, while Bush embarked on his insane wars of conquest with only the lightest chastisement from the international community. So since then, Russia has engaged in a more assertive mode of geopolitics. So far it has worked out pretty well for them - much better than the previous strategy, at the very least. That doesn't mean that the rest of the world should roll over and show its belly whenever Putin threatens another country. What it does mean is that a strategy of containing a Russia that is an energy-exporting superpower is ultimately doomed to fail. We cannot engage them militarily, and we cannot contain them. So that leaves us with diplomacy, and that means trading concessions so that all sides can save face as best they can. It may or may not succeed at stopping episodes like this from popping up in the future - we can't know the outcome for certain. But we do know that it's really the only way forward that has any hope of succeeding. The "gently caress you, you're a defeated enemy, you get nothing" strategy is what got us here in the first place.
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Feb 16, 2022 09:44
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Majorian posted:
Getting kicked out of G8 and being treated like an abusive alcoholic neighbour from upstairs (compared to successful regional bullies like China and India) doesn't strike me as a massive geopolitical achievement. Containment seems to work because unless Brent goes back and stays at 100 Russia is not going to impress anyone and the west can just wait until the current leadership cashes out.
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Feb 16, 2022 10:05
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But the 'energy exporting superpower' bit basically ends in 2050 or thereabouts, depending on how seriously everyone progresses on renewables and nuclear. Russia is absolutely on the clock and that's why Putin is being so aggressive now - he knows that the window for coercive diplomacy to reshape the world according to Russia's preferences is closing.
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Feb 16, 2022 10:09
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Pretty weird to frame the treatment of Russia as being a "defeated enemy" when all through the 00s and 10s Russia was treated as a "strategic energy partner", was invited into G8, Putin got away with killing his enemies abroad and within and invading other countries and slowly strangling civil society. Also real cool to have an American explain Russia to Russians, thank you wise white man for your wisdom bestowed to us stupid savages (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 16, 2022 10:12
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https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1493853938239557634 Graun correspondent. Yeltsin did intervene in Chechnya to ferocious international disapproval - Grozny was in 1994 - this was well before the NATO intervention in Serbia even, never mind Putin. It's not that Russia gave up on military adventurism inasmuch as it learnt - in Chechnya - to limit its ambitions to its reach.
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Feb 16, 2022 10:13
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One of the primary architects of the containment policy is currently POTUS and his response to current events is "p-please don't... we'll do more sanctions!" because things getting to this point is just shows how much they screwed the pooch.
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Feb 16, 2022 10:13
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fatherboxx posted:Getting kicked out of G8 and being treated like an abusive alcoholic neighbour from upstairs (compared to successful regional bullies like China and India) doesn't strike me as a massive geopolitical achievement. How does any of that play out in reality, though? The G8 was already a meaningless, obsolete relic, and the rest of the world will still gladly do business with Russia, alcoholic neighbor or not. Western Europe will still buy their energy. NATO's not going to expand. Moscow has shown that it can cause an absurd level of panic just by moving troops around within its own borders. If there's any lesson that Russia has learned over the past thirty years of diplomacy, it's that it really is better to be feared than loved. quote:Containment seems to work because unless Brent goes back and stays at 100 Russia is not going to impress anyone and the west can just wait until the current leadership cashes out. Their deal and increasingly close alignment with China makes it considerably less likely that a strategy of containment will have any hope of succeeding. Somaen posted:Pretty weird to frame the treatment of Russia as being a "defeated enemy" when all through the 00s and 10s Russia was treated as a "strategic energy partner", was invited into G8, Putin got away with killing his enemies abroad and within and invading other countries and slowly strangling civil society. You're kind of proving my point there, though. Most of that happened after Russia had shed the geopolitical strategy of the 90s and adopted the more assertive approach instead. Russia was absolutely treated as a defeated enemy throughout the 90s. quote:Also real cool to have an American explain Russia to Russians, thank you wise white man for your wisdom bestowed to us stupid savages Feel free to put me on ignore, or better yet, explain to me where I'm wrong. The reason why I feel confident in my assessment is that for a lot of my life, it was quite literally my job to make assessments like these about people like Vladimir Putin. Majorian fucked around with this message at 10:19 on Feb 16, 2022 |
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Feb 16, 2022 10:15
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