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Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Wistful of Dollars posted:

Yeah CZS, why did *you* join NATO

I admit i hosed up. I shouldn't have met his racism with more racism.

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Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Rodiel posted:

LMAO, if you don't care about what Americans think, why did you join NATO?

If people are on an american forum it can be for discussion with other knowledgeable interesting people, it's not necessary to respect all americans' opinions including morons and chuds

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

How exactly would this be profitable for anyone

Google military industrial complex

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Has anyone seen any pictures of the building allegedly damaged by Ukrainian grad fire in Rostov oblast’?

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Somaen posted:

If people are on an american forum it can be for discussion with other knowledgeable interesting people, it's not necessary to respect all americans' opinions including morons and chuds

Just because you disagree with someone doesn't mean they should be silenced.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


cinci zoo sniper posted:

Has anyone seen any pictures of the building allegedly damaged by Ukrainian grad fire in Rostov oblast’?

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1495077801136992266?s=20&t=uEccVLiilpfttwQaA6O7Aw

I think this might be it, but I can't tell for sure.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


cinci zoo sniper posted:

Has anyone seen any pictures of the building allegedly damaged by Ukrainian grad fire in Rostov oblast’?

https://t.me/sputnikossetia/13514

Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007

Rodiel posted:

This rear end in a top hat is part of the problem!

Would you care to explain which part of his analysis of the video you have issues with?

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

Would you care to explain which part of his analysis of the video you have issues with?

Brown moses?

Hes a known intelligence asset, i will never trust anything he says.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:

That's rather uncalled for.

American Exceptionalist protagonist syndrome (and its evident British cousin that also pops up) is obnoxious and bad regardless of whether the perspective its blaring is critical of America or cheerleading America. And it deserves calling out.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Rodiel posted:

I admit i hosed up. I shouldn't have met his racism with more racism.

Let's say that, somehow, Biden is right and Putin does invade Ukraine - obviously impossible, but just as a thought experiment - would such an invasion by Putin be justified, in your opinion?

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Flavahbeast posted:

Let's say that, somehow, Biden is right and Putin does invade Ukraine - obviously impossible, but just as a thought experiment - would such an invasion by Putin be justified, in your opinion?

no

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013






It looks like it's that, cheers! I'd prefer to have some form of geolocation for it, but I was mostly just looking to see any footage at all, since Russian media on my end felt suspiciously quiet for an alleged Ukrainian rocket hitting a house in Russia.

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Wistful of Dollars posted:

Yeah CZS, why did *you* join NATO

I mean, it's just meeting tit-for-tat. CZS pulled the exact same poo poo with me.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

If you’re dissatisfied with our membership terms, ask more or kick us out. We’re doing everything that is being asked of us, and we were not shy to kill our citizens for your sake in Iraq and elsewhere.

I think it would be cool if Latvia could allocate 1 trillion USD out of its budget for military expense, which you seem to be asking for, but we may have to fix our roads and start paying teachers and nurses liveable wage before then.

TipTow posted:

So you believe I have the unilateral ability to kick out the Baltics?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Of course I do, that’s how English language works.


If it's good enough for the ex post facto thread IK should be good for anyone else.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

TipTow posted:

I mean, it's just meeting tit-for-tat. CZS pulled the exact same poo poo with me.





If it's good enough for the ex post facto thread IK should be good for anyone else.

Yeah, sorry. I read the thread before posting.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

How exactly would this be profitable for anyone

Oh, this one is easy.

- US/Western MIC get to make more money than they have in 30 years as Europe remilitarizes like the good old days. Heavy uptick in US procurement, and participation of US firms in Eurocentric consortiums to speed up development and interoperability.
- US/Western MIC make even more money because most of Ukraine will have their military effectively destroyed. Someone's going to need a whole pile of new American and Western-backed, super expensive, certified Ruuskie-busting military equipment for a definitely not NATO supported campaign to retake Donbass in 10 years. Can't afford it? No problem! Have a loan or maybe an Israel-style deal where they actually pay you to pay them for their stuff so you won't even have to worry about your busted economy. They get paid either way!
- US/Western MIC make even more money because as we've seen the US media/political/intelligence apparatus can be provoked to a frothing mania at the drop of a well-placed leak from Russian divisional staff, and as a result US defense procurement will skyrocket as they attempt to reopen a Cold War-level technological gap with Moscow, no doubt aided by a bunch of useful operational data on newer Russian weapon systems derived from observing this conflict.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

Rodiel posted:

Brown moses?

Hes a known intelligence asset, i will never trust anything he says.

I know I will probably regret this, but who do you think shot down MH17?

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Conspiratiorist posted:

Oh, this one is easy.

- US/Western MIC get to make more money than they have in 30 years as Europe remilitarizes like the good old days. Heavy uptick in US procurement, and participation of US firms in Eurocentric consortiums to speed up development and interoperability.
- US/Western MIC make even more money because most of Ukraine will have their military effectively destroyed. Someone's going to need a whole pile of new American and Western-backed, super expensive, certified Ruuskie-busting military equipment for a definitely not NATO supported campaign to retake Donbass in 10 years. Can't afford it? No problem! Have a loan or maybe an Israel-style deal where they actually pay you to pay them for their stuff so you won't even have to worry about your busted economy. They get paid either way!
- US/Western MIC make even more money because as we've seen the US media/political/intelligence apparatus can be provoked to a frothing mania at the drop of a well-placed leak from Russian divisional staff, and as a result US defense procurement will skyrocket as they attempt to reopen a Cold War-level technological gap with Moscow, in no doubt aided by a bunch of useful operational data on newer Russian weapon systems derived from observing this conflict.

Don't forget that Ukraine has an IMF loan coming due, and most of their GDP is from the gas pipeline through the country (Russia to Germany) that's about to get shut down. Western capital wants to buy all their farmland for pennies on the dollar, and they will.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

BigRoman posted:

I know I will probably regret this, but who do you think shot down MH17?

Probably the separatists, armed by the Russian government.

Who do you think did?

Rodiel fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Feb 19, 2022

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Rodiel posted:

Racism is ok, as long as its against the right race.

American is not a race.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Paladinus posted:

American is not a race.

I was taking about racism against ethnic Russians, good reading comprehension tho.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
I'm sorry you got lightly roasted by the mean eastern european.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Rodiel posted:

Brown moses?

Hes a known intelligence asset, i will never trust anything he says.

It's a good thing then that you can literally download the videos and easily verify his claims (I have). You don't need to buy special equipment or software to do that either.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Paladinus posted:

It's a good thing then that you can literally download the videos and easily verify his claims (I have). You don't need to buy special equipment or software to do that either.

How are you able to interpret those videos without the context he gives? It must be really hard.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Rodiel posted:

How are you able to interpret those videos without the context he gives? It must be really hard.

What do you mean? The video was posted by separatists on their official telegram channel, and they provided their own description of the events. What other context do you need?

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Cugel the Clever posted:

What on Earth does this mean? What war is he trying to start? The US attacking Russia? Ukraine attacking Russia? Cats attacking dogs??


When enough powerful people keep repeating "War is inevitable, war is inevitable," it tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy if history is any indication. I don't think Biden is trying to start a war, because I don't think he or his team are that smart or competent. But chanting "War is inevitable" and using intelligence that later turned out to be false to lend credence to that claim was a big factor in the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Obviously, that's not to suggest that the U.S. government wants to get directly involved in a war between Russia and Ukraine, but as others have pointed out, the American military-industrial complex does stand to profit a lot from prolonging this state of cold war.

As does the Russian military-industrial complex (and Putin in particular), of course.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Conspiratiorist posted:

Oh, this one is easy.

- US/Western MIC get to make more money than they have in 30 years as Europe remilitarizes like the good old days. Heavy uptick in US procurement, and participation of US firms in Eurocentric consortiums to speed up development and interoperability.
- US/Western MIC make even more money because most of Ukraine will have their military effectively destroyed. Someone's going to need a whole pile of new American and Western-backed, super expensive, certified Ruuskie-busting military equipment for a definitely not NATO supported campaign to retake Donbass in 10 years. Can't afford it? No problem! Have a loan or maybe an Israel-style deal where they actually pay you to pay them for their stuff so you won't even have to worry about your busted economy. They get paid either way!
- US/Western MIC make even more money because as we've seen the US media/political/intelligence apparatus can be provoked to a frothing mania at the drop of a well-placed leak from Russian divisional staff, and as a result US defense procurement will skyrocket as they attempt to reopen a Cold War-level technological gap with Moscow, no doubt aided by a bunch of useful operational data on newer Russian weapon systems derived from observing this conflict.

i guess my problem with the whole "biden is being pushed into a war" stuff is that the us response to the russian invasion has been pretty mild. we have supplied some weapon systems, sure, but compared to most of our arms sales it has been relatively minor. $2.5 billion since 2014, which is less than israel gets annually from the us. beyond that, it's been sanctions threats and teeny-tiny troop deployments in allied countries. as true as it is that the us is responsible for millions dead with its disastrous foreign policy decisions, in the case of ukraine, it has been russia pouring gas on the fire. security concerns about the potential for ukraine joining nato are valid, but don't justify the numerous war crimes caused by their wanton conduct in eastern ukraine.

overall, i am not really sure what approach people would prefer. i think us intelligence does genuinely believe that russia will invade, and i don't think anything we are doing is making that prospect more likely. as far as russia goes, even if you take them at face value and they really are just conducting military exercises, the decision to do them at the scale and location they have chosen is an obvious political decision. they didn't need to do it, it has been designed to (in the most generous possible interpretation) intimidate. i don't begrudge people having a kneejerk reaction to us foreign policy decisions - looking at venezuela, for example - but the us has a lot of options for escalation and largely has opted out of those for now whereas the russian government is very clearly perfectly happy to escalate all day, every day.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

Rodiel posted:

Probably the separatists, armed by the Russian government.

Who do you think did?

I agree with you. I'm not sure, but the evidence I've seen seems to point to that conclusion. My point is I could look at your posting over the last couple of pages and say, "This guy works for the internet research agency". But that wouldn't be fair. I don't know you, and I don't have any proof of this. So, I assume you're posting in good faith. I don't just write you off as an intelligence agent because you disagree with me.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Concerned Citizen posted:

i guess my problem with the whole "biden is being pushed into a war" stuff is that the us response to the russian invasion has been pretty mild. we have supplied some weapon systems, sure, but compared to most of our arms sales it has been relatively minor. $2.5 billion since 2014, which is less than israel gets annually from the us. beyond that, it's been sanctions threats and teeny-tiny troop deployments in allied countries. as true as it is that the us is responsible for millions dead with its disastrous foreign policy decisions, in the case of ukraine, it has been russia pouring gas on the fire. security concerns about the potential for ukraine joining nato are valid, but don't justify the numerous war crimes caused by their wanton conduct in eastern ukraine.

overall, i am not really sure what approach people would prefer. i think us intelligence does genuinely believe that russia will invade, and i don't think anything we are doing is making that prospect more likely. as far as russia goes, even if you take them at face value and they really are just conducting military exercises, the decision to do them at the scale and location they have chosen is an obvious political decision. they didn't need to do it, it has been designed to (in the most generous possible interpretation) intimidate. i don't begrudge people having a kneejerk reaction to us foreign policy decisions - looking at venezuela, for example - but the us has a lot of options for escalation and largely has opted out of those for now whereas the russian government is very clearly perfectly happy to escalate all day, every day.

What do you think the American response would be to a hostile power arming a hostile neighbor? Just curious

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Concerned Citizen posted:

overall, i am not really sure what approach people would prefer. i think us intelligence does genuinely believe that russia will invade, and i don't think anything we are doing is making that prospect more likely.

I can't speak for anyone else, but my concern is that by convincing everyone that war is inevitable, it could help cause a repeat of what happened in Georgia in 2008: separatists provoke the Ukrainian military into sending in the troops, resulting in Russia sending in its own troops to overwhelm the Ukrainians and secure the breakaway regions.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

BigRoman posted:

I agree with you. I'm not sure, but the evidence I've seen seems to point to that conclusion. My point is I could look at your posting over the last couple of pages and say, "This guy works for the internet research agency". But that wouldn't be fair. I don't know you, and I don't have any proof of this. So, I assume you're posting in good faith. I don't just write you off as an intelligence agent because you disagree with me.

I see what you mean. I'm apologize if i accused people out of turn.

Plastic_Gargoyle
Aug 3, 2007

Rodiel posted:

Brown moses?

Hes a known intelligence asset, i will never trust anything he says.

That was not the question. Again, which part of that analysis do you think is incorrect?

And he's an "intelligence asset" according to who, and based on what evidence?

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

That was not the question. Again, which part of that analysis do you think is incorrect?

And he's an "intelligence asset" according to who, and based on what evidence?

Are you able to make your own argument? I have been bearing my heart out here.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
https://www.cia.gov/static/a2c365ce910a9ab25faa843d96891f90/Review_Bellingcat_Untraceable.pdf

is that enough evidence?

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

That was not the question. Again, which part of that analysis do you think is incorrect?

And he's an "intelligence asset" according to who, and based on what evidence?
Russia, if you're talking states. The evidence being that Bellingcat is funded by the National Endowment for Democracy.

I don't actually disagree with the assessment that he is an intelligence asset, though that alone does not mean everything Bellingcat produces is lies. Arguably it's probably more effective as an organization if I just produces the truth selectively.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
bellingcat isnt all lies, lies work better if they are spiced with truth

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Concerned Citizen posted:

i guess my problem with the whole "biden is being pushed into a war" stuff is that the us response to the russian invasion has been pretty mild. we have supplied some weapon systems, sure, but compared to most of our arms sales it has been relatively minor. $2.5 billion since 2014, which is less than israel gets annually from the us. beyond that, it's been sanctions threats and teeny-tiny troop deployments in allied countries. as true as it is that the us is responsible for millions dead with its disastrous foreign policy decisions, in the case of ukraine, it has been russia pouring gas on the fire. security concerns about the potential for ukraine joining nato are valid, but don't justify the numerous war crimes caused by their wanton conduct in eastern ukraine.

overall, i am not really sure what approach people would prefer. i think us intelligence does genuinely believe that russia will invade, and i don't think anything we are doing is making that prospect more likely. as far as russia goes, even if you take them at face value and they really are just conducting military exercises, the decision to do them at the scale and location they have chosen is an obvious political decision. they didn't need to do it, it has been designed to (in the most generous possible interpretation) intimidate. i don't begrudge people having a kneejerk reaction to us foreign policy decisions - looking at venezuela, for example - but the us has a lot of options for escalation and largely has opted out of those for now whereas the russian government is very clearly perfectly happy to escalate all day, every day.

US/NATO can't directly intervene due to various reasons, limiting the scope of what they can do, especially preemptively.

I don't think Biden is being 'pushed' into anything given how how he was one of the main architects of Russian Containment Policy of the past 13 years. That this conflict is happening at all is an embarrassment to US/NATO Foreign Policy.

But I'm pointing out that political decisions are a confluence of interests, and the American MIC and Petro sectors - who possess and outsized influence in politics - certainly stand to gain if things pop off. If leadership has even moderately good reason to believe war is inevitable then how they approach diffusion/resolution I'd say is not motivated by what's best for Ukraine but about what they can salvage from it.

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
lol it even mentions MH17

Rodiel
Apr 9, 2007
Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

Conspiratiorist posted:

US/NATO can't directly intervene due to various reasons, limiting the scope of what they can do, especially preemptively.

I don't think Biden is being 'pushed' into anything given how how he was one of the main architects of Russian Containment Policy of the past 13 years. That this conflict is happening at all is an embarrassment to US/NATO Foreign Policy.

But I'm pointing out that political decisions are a confluence of interests, and the American MIC and Petro sectors - who possess and outsized influence in politics - certainly stand to gain if things pop off. If leadership has even moderately good reason to believe war is inevitable then how they approach diffusion/resolution I'd say is not motivated by what's best for Ukraine but about what they can salvage from it.

His son even took a bunch of money from the Ukrainians so he has to be unbiased!

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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

This is a public book review of We are Bellingcat by a random analyst for CISA's Studies in Intelligence. It demonstrates that this unknown CIA analyst thinks BM's organization is likely to develop such that looks a lot like other intelligence organizations, and that Bellingcat will probably not be as revolutionary as he thinks. It does not in any way state or suggest that Higgins or Bellingcat are somehow subject to reproach or capture by the CIA.

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