|
Thank god for semantics lord knows what else we'd post about
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 22:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 13:40 |
|
|
Rodiel posted:Ukraine is a pawn. Focusing on Russia is dumb, maybe they thought that the west was a better master but it seams like their leadership at least is realizing they made a deal with the devil. The actual people that have to live and work there are hosed for a long long time.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 22:51
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:Ukraine was already deterred from attacking Donbass with a force less than half this size in the past. If you could recognize and guarantee their independence with 50~60 BTGs, so why deploy >110? Ukraine is not the one that needs to be deterred.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 22:52
|
|
|
Nessus posted:A pawn of whom? The US and Russia? Its really hard for me to really think anyone is this stupid
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 22:53
|
|
|
Rodiel posted:The US and Russia? Its really hard for me to really think anyone is this stupid Pawns usually have sides
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 22:54
|
|
|
Rodiel posted:The US and Russia? Its really hard for me to really think anyone is this stupid
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 22:54
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Ukraine is not the one that needs to be deterred. Right, be pedantic. What I mean is that Russia has amassed a beyond excessive display of force if their goal was limited to guaranteeing the DPR/LPR up to the current LOC, which I believe is something we're both in agreement with. Also... https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1495871742014861319 let it be a drone, let it be a drone, let it be a drone
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:00
|
|
|
I’m confused. I was assured that I was being gaslit by the CIA and that Russia would never invade sovereign Ukraine?
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:00
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Majority of people actively posting here read Russian just fine. That said, since "translate tweet" button is on holiday, here's the short content of each document (identical copies for LNR and DNR): Just wanted to say thanks for posting this synopsis. I'm a monolingual American (enough Spanish to travel notwithstanding), but getting information from primary sources is nice.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:01
|
|
|
Conspiratiorist posted:Right, be pedantic. this source aint great
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:01
|
|
|
feels like the obvious next escalation is demanding that ukr forces cease their occupation of the newly independent republics and withdraw behind some arbitary line much closer to the dnieper good luck to everyone in Ukraine
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:01
|
|
|
FishBulbia posted:this source aint great How so? brakeless posted:feels like the obvious next escalation is demanding that ukr forces cease their occupation of Agreed. They probably want the entirety of the Donbass oblast. Now, we'll see if they try that through force, but they are apparently moving a lot of 'peacekeeper' in place.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:02
|
|
|
brakeless posted:feels like the obvious next escalation is demanding that ukr forces cease their occupation of I also expect this.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:05
|
|
|
Can I suggest that instead of a toxx ban the loser instead donate $10 to Médecins Sans Frontières or something similar? Which would be a little less grim.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:05
|
|
|
For anyone who cares about the fakes, the burning APC story is being suggested to have been a modernized BTR-70, Russian variant.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:06
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:How so? well, it seems to be based in the US, and I feel like in a volatile situation like this, sources closer to Ukraine are generally a better idea. they seem to have also joined twitter last november, so not really any established source. it looks like a random twitter poster trying to look more important than they are
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:06
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:How so? They're just a kinda unreliable OSINT tweep.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:08
|
|
|
This was a great site for keeping track of the war in Syria-- a map that was being constantly updated with incidents and territorial changes. It has a section for Ukraine. Does anyone know if it's any good?
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:10
|
|
|
so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:10
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:big sacrifice for not a lot of gain
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:11
|
|
|
brakeless posted:feels like the obvious next escalation is demanding that ukr forces cease their occupation of supposedly they're only recognizing the de facto borders for now, but we'll see https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1495857833107243010
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:11
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:For anyone who cares about the fakes, the burning APC story is being suggested to have been a modernized BTR-70, Russian variant. I was wondering about that, I mean not like Russia doesn't have an abundance of APCs laying around to stage with. FishBulbia posted:They're just a kinda unreliable OSINT tweep. Ah, okay, that's fine. Yeah I'm waiting on any other confirmation as well. Flavahbeast posted:supposedly they're only recognizing the de facto borders for now, but we'll see Yeah, we'll see how long that lasts and what units Russia rolls in with. Assuming they are serious about this, then nothing happens, but even then assuming that, there'd be little reason to move in a lot of Russian units or evacuate civilians. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Feb 21, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:11
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain I guess? It never even came online. It will be politically difficult for Germany to go ahead with it. But fuel prices are likely going to spike upwards just based on Putin's speech, never mind actual shooting that may happen. Citizens in Germany and Europe will have their political views but not freezing in the winter is likely going to trump those. I wouldn't totally write of NordStream2 just yet.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:13
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:This was a great site for keeping track of the war in Syria-- a map that was being constantly updated with incidents and territorial changes. It has a section for Ukraine. Does anyone know if it's any good? It was launched by Ukrainians in 2014, as far as I recall it. Even if I'm misremembering that, it's quite good to stay up to speed with military incidents in Ukraine. A slightly slower, more filtered, feed is available over on Kyiv Independent's website. Flavahbeast posted:supposedly they're only recognizing the de facto borders for now, but we'll see This is very bizarre (so far). In this scenario, they literally gain nothing and just expose themselves to economic punches.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:14
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain This is me being pessimistic, but once the initial condemnation around the conflict dies down, I fully expect the Germans to activate it. They haven’t been huge fans of doing anything that even slightly inconveniences them or hurts their economy. Cough Eurocrisis Cough
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:15
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:so this probably means that nord stream 2 is gone, doesn't it? big sacrifice for not a lot of gain I'm guessing the pipeline only goes if Russia seizes more territory they didn't already occupy, with bigtime loss of life (which is still pretty likely imo) leaving things like this would drive a wedge between the US and Germany on the issue though, and Biden was facing gop pressure to sanction the pipeline even before all this went down
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:15
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:I guess? It never even came online. It will be politically difficult for Germany to go ahead with it. We have enough for this winter, and EU government did just recently cancel a regulatory probe into Qatar gas market crimes for reasons totally unrelated to the "geopolitical situation".
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:15
|
|
|
Give us the [parts of the] Sudetenland [that we already control].
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:16
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1495877460944203777?s=20&t=HHhb0vcFaEjb0SunyE9Z_A Footage of Russian troops being bussed in to Donbas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb_3FT5DgEo&t=4s The Buzzer stopped buzzing and transmitted a code for the first time I can ever remember hearing
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:16
|
|
|
Jarmak posted:Because ignoring direct replacements if you commit new military formations to an invasion it's a new, additional, invasion. I don't think adding additional troops to an area you have de facto held for years counts as a new invasion, no. Your D-Day analogy doesn't seem to apply at all, because that was invading an area held by the Nazis. Fame Douglas fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Feb 21, 2022 |
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:21
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:I guess? It never even came online. It will be politically difficult for Germany to go ahead with it. weird thing is that it was ready, and without an excuse it's unclear how long they could've delayed it. it seems as though the russians would've had a much stronger hand had they waited it out, but maybe they felt that the present energy price situation strengthened their position. it really is unclear to me what the russians were expecting here - NATO has never been terribly interested in compromises, and they haven't exactly made things easy for zelenskij even if he'd wanted to play ball. or maybe this whole thing just spun out of control.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:22
|
|
|
Long and short, here's what I'm estimating: - This doesn't just stop at DNR/LNR, Russia already had those. This is seeking some sort of provocation. Russia is seeking to gain something by doing this, and they have not really gained anything yet - The peacekeeping force is going to either try to draw in Ukrainian forces into a stalemate or provoke them into something or keep them occupied. Either way, I do not think this is going to get better.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:23
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Long and short, here's what I'm estimating: the tea leaves here are hard to read - this could be positioning ahead of the summit they've been muttering about with the americans, or it could be a face-saving display for the home front. but yeah it's a major escalation and they must have *some* plan with it
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:25
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:weird thing is that it was ready, and without an excuse it's unclear how long they could've delayed it. it seems as though the russians would've had a much stronger hand had they waited it out, but maybe they felt that the present energy price situation strengthened their position. it really is unclear to me what the russians were expecting here - NATO has never been terribly interested in compromises, and they haven't exactly made things easy for zelenskij even if he'd wanted to play ball. or maybe this whole thing just spun out of control. I can certainly understand having a poor estimate of American foreign policy resolve but it was the last guy he was on good terms with.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:25
|
|
|
Fame Douglas posted:I don't think adding new troops to an area you have de-facto held for years counts as a new invasion, no. Your D-Day analogy doesn't seem to apply at all, because that was invading an area previously held by the Nazis. The fact is we are closer to a major global war right this second with Putin’s move from covert occupation of Eastern Ukraine to overt occupation of Eastern Ukraine than we have been since probably the 1960s. Furthermore, the language of Putin’s speech today names all of the Ukraine, in so many words, as rightfully Russian. Rather than a d-day analogy I think it’s closer to German reoccupation of the Rheinland and Hitler’s language about “Greater Germany” than anything. And while I don’t expect nuclear war to engulf the world, it would be pretty remiss of us to ignore what is happening right now, or to not contemplate how in July of 1914, no major European power thought they were standing on the precipice of the congratulation that was the First World War. So, by all means, do not spread panic or fear monger, but do not pretend this “situation” did not just become orders of magnitude more serious than it was this morning.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:29
|
|
|
Nessus posted:My own impression is that Putin smoked himself stupid thinking he would surely get the West to walk down and maybe authorize him to carve off the chunks he's moving troops into now and for once this didn't happen, and there's no actual plan on what to do in this case on his part. Haven't seen the West do anything beside vaguely wag their fingers.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:29
|
|
|
Nessus posted:My own impression is that Putin smoked himself stupid thinking he would surely get the West to walk down and maybe authorize him to carve off the chunks he's moving troops into now and for once this didn't happen, and there's no actual plan on what to do in this case on his part. sergei lavrov is a very well respected diplomat who's widely considered one of the sharpest foreign policy minds active in geopolitics these days. this seems like a huge miscalculation for someone with that reputation. it also seems contrary to the russians' generally prudent* military policy previously on the track of the energy crisis, they may feel their position slipping as the weather gets warmer and energy prices go down. if this is the case then they're on a timer. *they've been intervening and flexing, but they have been pretty careful not to overextend or to do really dumb stuff. this kind of mission creep is pretty uncharacteristic of their recent history
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:30
|
|
|
Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:I thought Zelensky was supposed to speak tonight, as of about an hour ago. I wonder if that's still happening. Officially cancelled just now, apparently.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:30
|
|
|
Nessus posted:My own impression is that Putin smoked himself stupid thinking he would surely get the West to walk down and maybe authorize him to carve off the chunks he's moving troops into now and for once this didn't happen, and there's no actual plan on what to do in this case on his part. Remind me of what happened in Crimea
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:30
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 13:40 |
|
|
ZombieLenin posted:The fact is we are closer to a major global war right this second with Putin’s move from covert occupation of Eastern Ukraine to overt occupation of Eastern Ukraine than we have been since probably the 1960s. Russia could invade Ukraine tomorrow and NATO, EU, and US would do nothing. There's no path to global war out of this. Other than sanctions and 'wagging of fingers' nobody is going to move any units to defend Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Feb 21, 2022 23:31
|
|