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cinci zoo sniper posted:Not sure why Vindman thinks about a hot war, but a new Cold War is clearly possible. He'll, I'd be receptive to an argument for that to have been the case for some time already. Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:05
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the same is also true of wars and political aggression. putin respects only force and the ability to make things worse. If he responded to high-minded rhetoric about trying to help the marginalized and downtrodden that would be great but hes getting ready to launch the biggest European war since world war 2 after giving an hour-long speech about how Ukrainians aren't real. He does not respond to anything but fear so the options are sanctions, commit actual troops and get into a shooting war ourselves, or send Ukrainians our thoughts and prayers. I'm aware sanctions won't work on Putin, but they mostly don't work on anyone. It's a way to pretend to do something without committing troops. It's likely gonna be "thoughts and prayers".
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Feb 22, 2022 01:05
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Willo567 posted:Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? Not very likely because they don't want us putting nukes in the Baltics.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:06
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Willo567 posted:Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? Well, Cuba would have to agree to that lol
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Feb 22, 2022 01:07
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Willo567 posted:Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? extremely unlikely. Cuba wants the united states to forget it exists for the most part and they've succeeded greatly in this goal now that florida isn't really a swing state anymore. Erasing that progress would be idiotic. Now Venezuela might do it because they have nothing to lose.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:07
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V. Illych L. posted:it was a nonsense post, i respond with a technicality. i agree that the situation is substantially different to that of former warsaw pact countries. You being in a grotesquely wealthy country with no enemies, and no relevant living experience of military imperialist domination from another country (don't even try saying Germany lol) is very relevant given how extremely dismissive you are of countries who do have those things.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:09
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Realistically Russia's ability to project naval power is dramatically worse than the Soviet Union's was so anything that involves them threatening to gently caress around in the Western Hemisphere isn't very credible. Like could they potentially set up a base in Venezuela or something? I guess, but some stranded Russians sitting around doing nothing isn't very intimidating.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:09
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And generally speaking Norway is in the Russia-hawk camp of NATO anyway.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:10
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Missiles in Cuba would also be pointless because they have nuclear submarines and having nearby missiles doesn’t accomplish anything that submarines don’t
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Feb 22, 2022 01:11
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Now Venezuela might do it because they have nothing to lose. What would they gain from that besides Russian assistance?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:11
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Alchenar posted:And generally speaking Norway is in the Russia-hawk camp of NATO anyway. Pardon?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:14
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Willo567 posted:What would they gain from that besides Russian assistance? I feel like you just answered your own question, but also saying gently caress you to the US out of spite is pretty satisfying. Like historically Castro was suicidally enthusiastic about nukes, to the point where he was mad that the Soviets didn't stand firm, even with the understanding that Cuba would have been obliterated. The Soviets thought he was loving insane, and later on he admitted he was wrong.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:14
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V. Illych L. posted:i have a very hard time seeing the EU accept a new country full of pretty highly skilled labour with low wage expectations under present conditions under any circumstances, let alone one with institutions as weak as they are in ukraine, just as i have a very hard time seeing NATO actually move forward with ukrainian membership for obvious reasons. the extent to which NATO membership (or, say, the inordinately complicated trade deals that keep getting secretly negotiated) is an expression of the sovereign will of respective countries is also a matter of some historical debate in certain cases, but i do understand your point and accept it to an extent. Fair enough, I respect your position here as well. I fully agree with the practical impossibility of NATO, but my gut feeling is that Ukraine's options with EU are significantly different and somewhat better than what would be the correct analytical take in ordinary circumstances. On the sweeteners, my argument is that nothing would've been a sweet enough replacement for an EU membership, which they see as achievable. Russia is simply unable to offer that level of quality of life without threatening its domestic political balance by accidentally removing the horse blinds on what sort of life is actually possible in Russia. As in, there's this set of beliefs where "western decadence" is some function of inscrutable Anglo/gays/the Others, and thus inaccessible domestically. And so, majority of people with means do emigrate as soon as possible. The second you show that's possible in Ukraine, Lukashenko and Putin face real Mussolinization risks from the domestic population, if they can't deliver the same. And to deliver the same, Russia would need to walk away from being a patronage-based oligarchy, which means a de facto collapse of Putin's regime (and is otherwise impossible for a host of reasons).
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Feb 22, 2022 01:15
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Sinteres posted:I feel like you just answered your own question, but also saying gently caress you to the US out of spite is pretty satisfying. Like historically Castro was suicidally enthusiastic about nukes, to the point where he was mad that the Soviets didn't stand firm, even with the understanding that Cuba would have been obliterated. The Soviets thought he was loving insane, and later on he admitted he was wrong. Castro also wanted to fire nukes without having to get Russian permission first, which uh... Of course the Cuban Missile Crisis would of been avoided if the obsolete nukes in Turkey had been removed what like a few years prior? As Kennedy assumed they had been.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:16
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No state will ever let go off nukes again
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Feb 22, 2022 01:18
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Majorian posted:There are similarities, but A, as ambitious and amoral as Putin is, he doesn't seem to want to conquer anywhere outside of the former USSR; B, there's a larger power imbalance between NATO and Russia than there was between the Axis Powers and the rest of the world in the 1930s; and C, the pre-WWII didn't have nuclear deterrence and MAD. There's not going to be a WWIII over Ukraine. I've been wondering about that first point. - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are in NATO and presumably have escaped. - Russia already has Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in the CSTO, plus Azerbaijan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan in the CIS. - Azerbaijan (Artsakh), Georgia (Abkhazia + South Ossetia), Moldova (Transnistria) and Ukraine (Crimea + DPR + LPR) have had pieces of their countries sliced off by Russia. Am I wrong that Ukraine is the only nation that didn't make it to NATO and that also did not participate in CIS or CSTO?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:18
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Willo567 posted:Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? This isn't going to happen, there is no nuclear strategy to the ongoing Ukraine crisis.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:18
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I can already feel my blood pressure rising simply thinking about the lukewarm, slap-on-the-wrist sanctions US and Europe are going to propose tomorrow. NS2 is cool and all, but hardly a fatal blow.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:19
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Mooseontheloose posted:Castro also wanted to fire nukes without having to get Russian permission first, which uh... I don't know about that, the Soviets just maybe wouldn't have had an easy ask to compomise on in that case. There's a whole literature on why Khrushchev initiated the crisis, from leverage on Berlin, to deterring further attacks on Cuba, and all kinds of other stuff. E: Going back on topic after this, but here's a key book we used in my class that covered this subject: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essence_of_Decision Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 01:19
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surf rock posted:I've been wondering about that first point. You are correct-ish. 
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Feb 22, 2022 01:22
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Sinteres posted:Realistically Russia's ability to project naval power is dramatically worse than the Soviet Union's was so anything that involves them threatening to gently caress around in the Western Hemisphere isn't very credible. Like could they potentially set up a base in Venezuela or something? I guess, but some stranded Russians sitting around doing nothing isn't very intimidating. Hey now, Admiral Kuznetsov could derail US commitments to reducing carbon emissions in America.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:25
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found a guy who thought the speech was good https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495900745899687942
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Feb 22, 2022 01:25
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Willo567 posted:Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? It's not nearly as relevant anymore. In 1962, Russia had like ~20 ICBMs. Putting shorter range missiles near the U.S. mattered. Now Russia and the U.S. each have [number cable of hitting every relevant target multiple times] ICBMS, submarine launched ballistic missiles, probably dolphins with nuclear suicide vests, etc.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:27
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Majorian posted:Well, but it’s not like there are many North Atlantic countries left to join, though. Ukraine and Georgia are no-goes, Finland and Sweden are probably going to still stay neutral for the time being, and…that’s kind of it. I guess they could support Scottish independence or something to get another member
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Feb 22, 2022 01:28
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495915929074606089
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Feb 22, 2022 01:29
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BoldFace posted:I can already feel my blood pressure rising simply thinking about the lukewarm, slap-on-the-wrist sanctions US and Europe are going to propose tomorrow. NS2 is cool and all, but hardly a fatal blow. You might want to rejoice a little because the main effect of debilitating sanctions is towards poor, innocent civilians. Not strongmen with deployed and tested apparatuses to circumvent or neuter said sanctions in the first place. Who -btw- also don't give a gently caress about poor innocent civilians anyway, but welcome any chance to point their rage and anguish in the opposite direction. Dante80 fucked around with this message at 01:35 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 01:30
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:found a guy who thought the speech was good Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:32
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Count Roland posted:Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history? since the traitorous lenin invented the nation of ukraine
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Feb 22, 2022 01:33
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Count Roland posted:Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history? Because it made Russia weak, not because he loves Lenin. His whole speech today was grounded on the fact that Ukraine was apparently dreamt up by Lenin's stroke addled brain to appease nationalists.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:34
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My last question on the matter - why do some analyst believe that Russia conducting nuclear drills is a menacing sign? I mean I get how it is with everything going on currently, but don't these drills happen every year and are likely just a show of strength?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:36
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Count Roland posted:Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history? He specifically said it was a geopolitical disaster, which it absolutely was for the imperial core.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:36
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FishBulbia posted:Because it made Russia weak, not because he loves Lenin. His whole speech today was grounded on the fact that Ukraine was apparently dreamt up by Lenin's stroke addled brain to appease nationalists. Sure, whatever. But is or isn't Putin rabidly anti-communist? My impression was that he wasn't strongly one way or another but that he could work with both.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:37
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Willo567 posted:My last question on the matter - why do some analyst believe that Russia conducting nuclear drills is a menacing sign? I mean I get how it is with everything going on currently, but don't these drills happen every year and are likely just a show of strength? They usually happen in autumn, so it’s not unreasonable to read the schedule change, given broader context, as a flex.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:37
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Willo567 posted:My last question on the matter - why do some analyst believe that Russia conducting nuclear drills is a menacing sign? I mean I get how it is with everything going on currently, but don't these drills happen every year and are likely just a show of strength? Because "some analysts" are clickbait artists who know that nuclear scaremongering makes them money.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:37
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Willo567 posted:My last question on the matter - why do some analyst believe that Russia conducting nuclear drills is a menacing sign? I mean I get how it is with everything going on currently, but don't these drills happen every year and are likely just a show of strength? Conducting nuclear drills while prepping for the largest European invasion since WWII is pretty provocative tbh.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:37
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Not sure why Vindman thinks about a hot war, but a new Cold War is clearly possible. He'll, I'd be receptive to an argument for that to have been the case for some time already. vindman's family is ukranian, he means a hot war in ukraine, not a hot war necessarily with the US Count Roland posted:Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history? putin does speaks about the soviet era in a sentimental way sometimes (eg the famous 'anyone who doesn't miss the soviet union has no heart, anyone who wants it back has no brain'), but nothing really about his decisions or the power structures or economic decisions he's involved with suggest any favorable sentiment towards communism. Very much the opposite, if anything. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 01:38
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Count Roland posted:Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history? Putin is a Russian nationalist/imperialist. Nationalists are not fans of transnational identities or ideologies. He liked the Russian dominance of the USSR and the empire, but not a fan of the Bolshevik's ideas about a transnational cultural and class identity.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:38
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Willo567 posted:My last question on the matter - why do some analyst believe that Russia conducting nuclear drills is a menacing sign? I mean I get how it is with everything going on currently, but don't these drills happen every year and are likely just a show of strength? They are a renewed signal to NATO to back off, meaning that they intend to take kinetic action that NATO could feel some level of inclination to directly interfere with. Nipping that idea in the bud, you may say.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:39
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Conspiratiorist posted:"We like Decommunization but don't stop half way. We are ready to show Ukraine what total decommunization looks like." - Putin. just fyi this appears to be a bad translation. from Reuters
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Feb 22, 2022 01:40
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Count Roland posted:Sure, whatever. But is or isn't Putin rabidly anti-communist? My impression was that he wasn't strongly one way or another but that he could work with both. He has always been anti-communist, to my knowledge, but I wouldn’t describe him as a rabid per se. He blames communism for being a major contributor to the fall of USSR, which ties in with what other posters have noted already.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:40
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