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Rinkles posted:just fyi this appears to be a bad translation. tbf same message.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:41
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cinci zoo sniper posted:You are correct-ish. Looking at this before my first cup of coffee, I got stuck on the word GUAM for about 10 minutes.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:42
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Herstory Begins Now posted:vindman's family is ukranian, he means a hot war in ukraine, not a hot war necessarily with the US I wouldn’t interpret “a hot war in Ukraine” as semantic opposite of “a [global] New Cold War”, but that read would make much more sense.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:43
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Conspiratiorist posted:tbf same message. I don't agree. The first makes him sound like a proponent of decommunisation, while the proper translation/context makes clear he was mocking Ukraine's efforts.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:44
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Rinkles posted:I don't agree. The first makes him sound like a proponent of decommunisation, while the proper translation/context makes clear he was mocking Ukraine's efforts. I would personally read the first one like that, but I admit that with him, much like any other Russian speech in English, I reverse translate it to Russian before absorbing.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:45
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I love the historical allusion that Ukraine was Lenin's fallacy when Ukrainian nationalists went to Brest-Litovsk, much to his chagrin.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:45
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Rinkles posted:I don't agree. The first makes him sound like a proponent of decommunisation, while the proper translation/context makes clear he was mocking Ukraine's efforts. Only if you don't read the last sentence.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:45
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Rinkles posted:I don't agree. The first makes him sound like a proponent of decommunisation, while the proper translation/context makes clear he was mocking Ukraine's efforts. Ah, I see what you mean. It's still a threat though - he's talking about dismantling Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:46
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I wouldn’t interpret “a hot war in Ukraine” as semantic opposite of “a [global] New Cold War”, but that read would make much more sense. oh yeah, I just mean that I think he's speaking from a more personal perspective than from any kind of official perspective. I'd agree that at this point you probably just get both, sooner or later.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:47
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Conspiratiorist posted:Ah, I see what you mean. I mean duh, I just didn't expect him to say "We like We like Decommunization".
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Feb 22, 2022 01:50
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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1495916564272590852?s=20&t=P7LwMezpqaY7p4a2_Ye_gw Really can't express how surreal this feels with having friends in Ukraine. I also get sad thinking about all my students who are either in Slovakia or czechia for school or in Kyiv.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:50
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https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1230998887298564096
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Feb 22, 2022 01:53
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IMO Biden has been doing alright. Leaking Putin's every move and rallying Europe is about all you can do until he crosses the line. Today it feels like we came close to 100% certainty the line will be crossed, soon, but... until then, what more would you expect of the U.S.?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:55
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This does check out, I guess. As far as we can tell, US did only ever entertain admin stuff like arms control, in this discourse.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:55
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With all the push to head east; maybe a buffer/NFZ is one of the options their weighing?
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Feb 22, 2022 01:58
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UN Security Council meeting came together fast, starts in an hour: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1495921121979469829
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Feb 22, 2022 02:02
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1495923250534223880 Still not the Fire Preparation stage but fighting appears to have picked back up.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:02
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1495915929074606089 Downplayed every escalation and played right into each disinformation episode until it was an emergency. Wonderful. MadJackal fucked around with this message at 02:09 on Feb 22, 2022 |
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Feb 22, 2022 02:06
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https://twitter.com/JaneLytv/status/1495926609194500104
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Feb 22, 2022 02:06
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freeasinbeer posted:With all the push to head east; maybe a buffer/NFZ is one of the options their weighing? Potentially, the question is: Where then?  I've highlighted all major urban areas of Ukraine - if this ends up expanding beyond areas currently under Russian control, they'd have to do several times more urban warfare (going by city population) than in the sum of wars Russia has seen since the fall of the USSR. And they're not good at urban warfare to begin with. If we zoom in:  Teal and pink is what they can probably get "easily", since they would "only" need Mariupol' and half of Zaporizhya, but at that point the entire planet is sanctioning you potentially, and you've gotten yourself precisely gently caress all, besides water supply for Crimea. I don't belive Russian strategic planners would like this trade either, but what will they do remains to be seen.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I don't belive Russian strategic planners would like this trade either, but what will they do remains to be seen. What the Russian strategic planners would like and what Putin seems to want are apparently two different things.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:15
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
The pink line in particular has been my guess as to where this is going, while I'm agnostic about the teal line and think the extent of a territorial incursion in the event of a major invasion will be partially up to when Ukraine cries uncle. I don't think Russia intends to occupy anything approaching the whole country, or even just the eastern half, but punching hard enough to break Ukraine's will to resist and impose whatever conditions Russia likes as a condition for peace might be the plan, whether Ukraine plays along or not.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:19
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https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1495930277469769729 What is the strategic advantage of having Zelensky retreat from the capital?
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Feb 22, 2022 02:20
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Count Roland posted:Since when is Putin anti-communist? Didn't he famously say the collapse of the USSR was one of the great tragedies of history? I mean, dude's massively wealthy and runs a country full of oligarchs and poverty. He's certainly not anti-capitalist.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:21
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Sinteres posted:The pink line in particular has been my guess as to where this is going, while I'm agnostic about the teal line and think the extent of a territorial incursion in the event of a major invasion will be partially up to when Ukraine cries uncle. I don't think Russia intends to occupy anything approaching the whole country, or even just the eastern half, but punching hard enough to break Ukraine's will to resist and impose whatever conditions Russia likes as a condition for peace might be the plan, whether Ukraine plays along or not. I agree with that - pink link is the minimum viable expansion of land conquest that makes it at least somewhat worth their effort. If that goes through, it's a reasonably safe guess to expect problems elsewhere - cyberwarfare, diversions, air sorties, who knows what else.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:21
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BoldFace posted:https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1495930277469769729 Harder to throw out a window the farther he is from Russian troops.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:21
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When I was looking at a map earlier I figured pink made some sense, though I didn't know how Zaporizhya would factor in. Sticking to the coast makes a lot of sense for easier support. I don't know what Russia would even do with Kiev if it decided to take it. BoldFace posted:https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1495930277469769729 Not getting killed?
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Feb 22, 2022 02:23
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https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1495892464053501953
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Feb 22, 2022 02:29
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Willo567 posted:Sorry if this was asked before, but since Russia is trying to improve it's strategic relationship with Cuba, how likely is it that they place missiles in Cuba and we get a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis? Not likely as you can hit anywhere in the US from a submarine these days.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:30
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Count Roland posted:When I was looking at a map earlier I figured pink made some sense, though I didn't know how Zaporizhya would factor in. Sticking to the coast makes a lot of sense for easier support. Count Roland posted:I don't know what Russia would even do with Kiev if it decided to take it.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Potentially, the question is: Where then? I’m not really thinking the limits of Russian advances, more-so if you start air strike-ing past this are around Lviv, where NATO will shoot you down. Something to what Turkey did in N. Syria. Basically a place for the Ukrainian government to hang out and not get decapitated.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:32
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freeasinbeer posted:I’m not really thinking the limits of Russian advances, more-so if you start air strike-ing past this are around Lviv, where NATO will shoot you down. Something to what Turkey did in N. Syria. NATO won't shoot down anything over Ukrainian territory, and Turkey doesn't shoot down planes for flying in northern Syria either. Turkey shot down one plane that briefly flew into Turkish airspace, and later apologized for it, partially because everyone else in NATO was like wtf do you think you're doing? Even when Russians straight up bombed Turkish military in Syria, Turkey just ended up taking it out on the Syrian government forces.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:35
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freeasinbeer posted:I’m not really thinking the limits of Russian advances, more-so if you start air strike-ing past this are around Lviv, where NATO will shoot you down. Something to what Turkey did in N. Syria. Oh, like that. Realistically yes, if only Lviv. NATO wouldn't shoot anyone, but NATO SIGINT could potentially give the government a room to breathe out.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:36
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Majorian posted:I acknowledge that I inserted the word "concentration" because that is what the letter clearly is meant to imply. bolding mine Why would you think this was false? Putin's Russia (and it is Putin's Russia, clearly, whatever the oligarchs think) hates LGBT people with a passion because he's a deeply patriarchal authoritarian.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:36
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freeasinbeer posted:I’m not really thinking the limits of Russian advances, more-so if you start air strike-ing past this are around Lviv, where NATO will shoot you down. Something to what Turkey did in N. Syria. As always bears repeating, the actions of NATO members doesn't immediately = NATO actions. Super especially in the case of Turkey.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:39
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Relevant Tangent posted:bolding mine Almost every country hated gay people until very recently, but most didn't start rounding them up and exterminating them like Nazi Germany, and Russia isn't going to either.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:39
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Count Roland posted:Not getting killed? If this was Chess, then, yes, that would be important. But what kind of a signal does it send to the Ukrainian military if their commander already starts to retreat to the west?
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Feb 22, 2022 02:39
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Sinteres posted:Almost every country hated gay people until very recently, but most didn't start rounding them up and exterminating them like Nazi Germany, and Russia isn't going to either. *looks sidelong at Chechnya*
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Feb 22, 2022 02:40
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Just FYI for everyone worried about the weakness of western sanctions being discussed: my read of the situation is that they hit the hard stuff if Russian hardware moves on the current line of conflict. If western sanctions are fully committed now, no further credible deterrent to keep Putin from grabbing all of Donetsk and / or the coast to Crimea.
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Feb 22, 2022 02:40
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Sinteres posted:Almost every country hated gay people until very recently, but most didn't start rounding them up and exterminating them like Nazi Germany, and Russia isn't going to either. they do that already? have you not been paying attention to what the various putinista groups do to people who are queer in Russia or do you not think it's happening or what? it's state policy that it's open season on lgbt people, that it's inherently anti-russian
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Feb 22, 2022 02:41
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