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JerikTelorian posted:Is there any reason to believe the Russians are really taking it in the chin here, or is it mostly just people cherry-picking Russian materiel getting toasted? Rus soldiers are kept from tiktok and phones in general so there are fewer leaks than in 2014 and propaganda (even bottom feeders like pro-separatist telegram channels) is probably kept from posting bodies and gloating (again, like in 2014-2015) because they want to keep the illusion of "surgical strikes" blitz
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Feb 24, 2022 17:53
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Sinteres posted:One of the reasons I was surprised Russia didn't invade sooner (as in like a week ago) was because of those arms shipments. Maybe they really were just waiting for the end of the Olympics, or they figured the arms shipments didn't outweigh having more prep time, who knows. There's a couple reason I'd suspect: 1. Lack of a good Casus Belli. Ukraine actually has been pretty disciplined in not reacting to Seperatist or Russian aggression. 2. OSINT and Intel Groups openly laying bare other possible casus belli, making it difficult to have a solid reason sooner 3. Waiting for units to be fully positioned, especially in DNR/LNR to being the assault. There is good reason to think the US Intel actually forced them to delay for a couple weeks.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:53
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Why would you be surprised by Germany. They’ve p consistently been the most cowardly of the western block the whole crisis Yeah it's not like they've been averse to letting Russia take over parts of eastern Europe in the past if they get something out of it.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:53
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FishBulbia posted:The Russian military of 2022 is not the military of the Chechen war. There is no reason to believe this operation is not going to plan. Once again for the nth time, you have no more information than anyone else especially those on the ground covering the invasion in a fog of war. I wish you would drop this gimmick.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:53
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah, agreed. We are not going to know the final situation until either: Zelensky himself is captured or surrenders, or Ukraine manages to solidify a defensive line. That's gonna take a while, at least a few days if not a week. also zelensky getting captured/assassinated will make him a martyr and probably escalate poo poo in country more. dudes popular and creating martyrs in an unprovoked and deeply globally unpopular invasion seems dumb
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Feb 24, 2022 17:54
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Telsa Cola posted:This has been a assumption for a long time but this really the first time we see how it impacts their military in a ground war, I believe. We had some evidence of this in other parts of the Russian sector though, their space agency basically is in shambles from sheer neglect and grift for example, and there's been reports that many of the attempts to make new lines for tank production literally don't exist from grift and fraud. The fact that we had reports that soldiers were selling gear for food and liquor is also an excellent sign of how hosed it might truly be. Russia existed in a climate of just stealing from it's population for 30 years, and if anything it's been more blatent for awhile, now we see if that will have an effect I guess.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:54
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bad_fmr posted:From finnish perspective, following the news and discussion in the recent weeks have been really perplexing. Leftists especially in USA seem to have absolutely massive blind spots about Russia in general and Putin in specific. Modern Russia is and has been an aggressive ethnonationalist authoritarian state committing war crimes and assassinating people wherever they choose. That you would choose to give benefit of doubt to Russia seems insane. Yes I understand that CIA is bad and NATO/USA has done dumb poo poo, but these do not change the facts. The argument wasn’t whether or not Russia was bad, the argument was whether or not they would actually be committed to an invasion and were doing their typical dick measuring posturing instead.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:54
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ummmmm https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1496862540957114370
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Feb 24, 2022 17:54
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Once again for the nth time, you have no more information than anyone else especially those on the ground covering the invasion in a fog of war. Again, no info except literally invading elite soldiers being 10 miles from the symbol of national independence.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:55
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Sinteres posted:One of the reasons I was surprised Russia didn't invade sooner (as in like a week ago) was because of those arms shipments. Maybe they really were just waiting for the end of the Olympics, or they figured the arms shipments didn't outweigh having more prep time, who knows. weather is a big factor too, part of the intel on when russia might kick things off was waiting for a cold front to come in to freeze the muddy ground. this is a major factor in this part of the world https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa its not a make or break factor like it was in ww2, there are a shitload more heavy duty paved roads in the region now, but its still something you want to consider https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/31/putin-russia-ukraine-frozen-ground/ dont read too much into this, its propaganda. the good kind, but still propaganda. right now the president of ukraine('s twitter account) is best served trying to rabble rouse as much as possible there is fighting going on in the chernobyl exclusion zone because it is a route between belarus and kyiv, but there's no reason to expect that the reactor itself will be opened up Mr. Fall Down Terror fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 17:55
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A lot of European economies seem to depend on Russia for energy and to unload a lot of their luxury goods so they can't put up meaningful and serious resistance without crashing their economies. If this is how the world is behaving about Ukraine, I can only imagine how much worse it will be if China finally decides to annex Taiwan. Anyway- have the Ukrainian forces had a chance to use the javelins yet? I was just wondering if the missiles actually work as intended since this is exactly the sort of conflict that they'd have textbook applications for.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:55
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Telsa Cola posted:This has been a assumption for a long time but this really the first time we see how it impacts their military in a ground war, I believe. Crossposting but extremely relevant: The Russian military may have been posturing more than we thought if this in fact true and a good example of their equipment standard 
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Feb 24, 2022 17:55
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Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah that and the chuds are too loving dumb to know when to shut the gently caress up about it. also cpac is going on so some of these dipshits will defend russia this week. It'll be interesting who eats who during CPAC with Trump openly praising Putin's invasion and his moron followers that lap up all the poo poo he says, and those that are more on the "gently caress Russia/Putin/Communism" side of things.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:55
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The invasion is not going as well as expected. Body bags will soon start flowing back into Russia. Russia has mobile cremation vehicles to hide the dead bodies. Seriously.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:56
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CommieGIR posted:There's a couple reason I'd suspect: It's still amazing to me how inept they were at creating false flag videos. I didn't expect Ukraine to bite, but I did expect Russia to at least be able to fabricate something without massive amateur mistakes that normal people could easily spot. But yeah Western intelligence obviously hurt there too.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:56
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The Lord of Hats posted:For those not familiar, the SWIFT network is pretty much how banks interact with each other. It’s not the entirety of the system, but I’d definitely say it’s the largest chunk of it. This would be a hell of a lot of isolation, and make any kind of money transfers into or out of Russia—particularly for imports and exports—a real pain in the rear end. Yea my parents who live in the US and are renting out their apartment In Moscow and are making GBS threads their pants rn.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:56
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FishBulbia posted:Again, no info except literally invading elite soldiers being 10 miles from the symbol of national independence. apparently the VDV troops are cut off and stuck in the air port and Ukrainian forces are moving in against them. airbourn only works if you know you can be reinforced quick but they are a couple hundred miles behind the lines so they might be hosed.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:56
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Preoptopus posted:Yea my parents who live in the US and are renting out their apartment In Moscow and are making GBS threads their pants rn. poo poo man, tell us if they learn anything.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:57
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JerikTelorian posted:Is there any reason to believe the Russians are really taking it in the chin here, or is it mostly just people cherry-picking Russian materiel getting toasted? My comment was to highlight methodology differences between Russian army and NATO standards, rather than to analyse the platoon story specifically. Currently we have no documented reason to believe that overall Russia is taking it in the chin. We have areas where they’ve most likely had strong success, Kherson front for example, but on the whole the most specific evaluation of the general situation that you can make is “Russia may have anticipated swifter, cheaper progress”.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:57
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Jiro posted:It'll be interesting who eats who during CPAC with Trump openly praising Putin's invasion and his moron followers that lap up all the poo poo he says, and those that are more on the "gently caress Russia/Putin/Communism" side of things. Anecdotal, but I'm in CHUD country and I had a whole bunch of rednecks at my nieces birthday party last night practically screaming for Putin's blood. I don't think it's a good play for Trump, boomers haven't forgotten the cold war at all.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:57
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We've covered this: Its a strategic position due to bridges over the river and substations for the Eastern Ukraine power grid. Nothing is going on with the plant itself other than that.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:58
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TulliusCicero posted:Crossposting but extremely relevant: What's wrong with their equipment? Looks normal?
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Feb 24, 2022 17:58
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Jiro posted:It'll be interesting who eats who during CPAC with Trump openly praising Putin's invasion and his moron followers that lap up all the poo poo he says 100% Jiro posted:It'll be interesting who eats who during CPAC with those that are more on the "gently caress Russia/Putin/Communism" side of things. 0% On both sides, the oligarchs will serve their master
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Feb 24, 2022 17:59
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https://zona.media/news/2022/02/24/ksa (Russian) Committee of Soldier Mothers (old and respected organization overseeing rights of draftees in military) says that conscripts are forced to sign professional service contracts (otherwise using them in combat is illegal) and sent to Ukraine
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Feb 24, 2022 17:59
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UCS Hellmaker posted:We had some evidence of this in other parts of the Russian sector though, their space agency basically is in shambles from sheer neglect and grift for example, and there's been reports that many of the attempts to make new lines for tank production literally don't exist from grift and fraud. The fact that we had reports that soldiers were selling gear for food and liquor is also an excellent sign of how hosed it might truly be. I guess my bottom line is that it's way to soon either way to make claims about supply failures and while we are just idiots on the internet its an incredibly bad idea to go "Well I bet if we wait 5 days they'll starve to death/break down" without concrete examples of significant supply failures. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Feb 24, 2022 |
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Feb 24, 2022 17:59
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steinrokkan posted:What's wrong with their equipment? Looks normal? I'm not following either. They have boots and nice looking cold weather gear.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:59
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What does this mean? I'm mocking Putin, wishing the bad publicity would make him log off and come back to do a lame youtube apology video e: thread moves fast holy frijoles
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Feb 24, 2022 17:59
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i am a moron posted:Anecdotal, but I'm in CHUD country and I had a whole bunch of rednecks at my nieces birthday party last night practically screaming for Putin's blood. I don't think it's a good play for Trump, boomers haven't forgotten the cold war at all. I'm also in a deep red state and the folks here are very much not into this war. ...they do think it's Biden's fault though. Somehow.
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Feb 24, 2022 17:59
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:its still too early to tell though but we do have documented evidence of NATO members shipping over crates and crates of advanced portable missiles, especially javelins. these are the kinds of weapons which would really gently caress up an invader's day This is an incredibly ancillary issue, but have Javelins ever been distributed in a conflict like this? Is it a reasonable concern that randos may end up with some if Ukrainian forces are pushed back?
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Feb 24, 2022 18:01
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CommieGIR posted:We've covered this: Its a strategic position due to bridges over the river and substations for the Eastern Ukraine power grid. Nothing is going on with the plant itself other than that. Isn't the rest of the reactors on that site shut down now anyways? Besides those reactors the actual site is fairly safe and isn't possible to weaponize I would think. The main site has been secure and sealed for long enough that unless they actively blow up the entire thing it's not a hazard, and it would blow over Russia in the first place if they did.
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Feb 24, 2022 18:01
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Kraftwerk posted:A lot of European economies seem to depend on Russia for energy and to unload a lot of their luxury goods so they can't put up meaningful and serious resistance without crashing their economies. https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1496864693226463235
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Feb 24, 2022 18:01
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External Organs posted:I'm also in a deep red state and the folks here are very much not into this war. Because he isn't, like, nuking Moscow or doing tactical airstrikes or whatever. (once again anecdotal, I don't want to take the direction the broader GOP might swing for granted)
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Feb 24, 2022 18:01
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i am a moron posted:Anecdotal, but I'm in CHUD country and I had a whole bunch of rednecks at my nieces birthday party last night practically screaming for Putin's blood. I don't think it's a good play for Trump, boomers haven't forgotten the cold war at all. Trump has switched to the "I'm the only one Putin is too afraid of to do anything, and for a good reason, too" game.
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Feb 24, 2022 18:02
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UCS Hellmaker posted:Isn't the rest of the reactors on that site shut down now anyways? Besides those reactors the actual site is fairly safe and isn't possible to weaponize I would think. The main site has been secure and sealed for long enough that unless they actively blow up the entire thing it's not a hazard, and it would blow over Russia in the first place if they did. Yes, they are all shutdown and defueled. The only risk is Reactor 4 which, obviously you can't fully defuel. But other than that, you'd have to purposefully try to bomb the plant. Even then, at worst is a medium risk to people in the immediate vicinity. Its not really a major, multi-national risk.
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Feb 24, 2022 18:02
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steinrokkan posted:What's wrong with their equipment? Looks normal? Yeah those look like nice winter gear. Maybe the slapped on insignia?
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Feb 24, 2022 18:03
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fatherboxx posted:https://zona.media/news/2022/02/24/ksa This is a very bad look domestically, wow. Also wow that it’s happening in general.
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Feb 24, 2022 18:03
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mightygerm posted:[b]MOD NOTE: Spoilered this. There's a very upset child in the video. I think I could handle all the corpses in the world, but I'm instant noping out of anything with a distressed kid.
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Feb 24, 2022 18:03
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i am a moron posted:Because he isn't, like, nuking Moscow or doing tactical airstrikes or whatever. (once again anecdotal, I don't want to take the direction the broader GOP might swing for granted) Russian immigrant in a deep red state and oh my god am I tired of plunging my face into my palms and explaining badly other than "I barely know more than you do but what I do know is Putin is doing imperialist bullshit"
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Feb 24, 2022 18:03
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AveMachina posted:I'm mocking Putin, wishing the bad publicity would make him log off and come back to do a lame youtube apology video Then I figured out correctly, no problem.
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Feb 24, 2022 18:03
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Telsa Cola posted:I guess my bottom line is that it's way to soon either way to make claims about supply failures and while we are just idiots on the internet its an incredibly bad idea to go "Well I bet if we wait 5 days they'll starve to death/break down" without concrete examples of supply failures. Very much so, don't think I was being dismissive to you! There's two possible points really, Russia actually had supplies and spare parts or they all were basically grifted. The question is how much of either statement is true? And will it play a part? Honestly I'm hoping that there's more potential information because it could be a major issue, we already know that much of their stuff has had these issues before. And brainstorming is all we really can do 
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