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BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


DaysBefore posted:

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/st...Fthread%2F33663

I guess there's still fighting in Sumy? I thought it fell hours ago.

nobody knows what the hell's going on. both sides are just tweeting whatever right now.

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Randarkman posted:

I never saw anything that said they were.

I can't find any confirmation of the opposite either. Everyone is reposting the same 1 video.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Flesnolk posted:

This feels really surreal, like big conventional wars like this just aren't supposed to be a thing anymore.

I know, right? My mind is having a hard time accepting that video of the dogfight over a normal-looking neighborhood as not something out of a video game.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

nobody knows what the hell's going on. both sides are just tweeting whatever right now.

I've seen the same 16 second video identified as destroyed Russian tanks, destroyed Ukrainian tanks, before finally being correctly identified as non destroyed Ukrainian tanks

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
If I can go and fall into complete, nutty Clancyposting for just one post, not because I either want or believe this will happen in the slightest but because of my own curiosity, if the Russians were to detonate a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, what would the rest of the world's response be?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


sumy's been captured, sumy's still fighting, the russians just snapped got out of their tanks and walked out of sumy back to russia

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


On the propaganda/hearts-and-minds front, this photo of Russian protest is topping multiple subreddits on reddit.com/r/all right now

Xeom
Mar 16, 2007

How are u posted:

Not going to count the chickens at this point, no way, but I do agree with the point that a lot of people seem to underestimate how much people in the West and the world over value democracy, warts and all, and how hard they'll fight for their freedom.

It's what gives me hope in the face of Putin and Xi's global vision of illiberal democracy and global autocracy.

This is really some funny rear end poo poo. Especially coming from someone who is probably an American.
Putin is certainly one hosed up dude, but he's only as hosed up as western leaders.
We can condemn Putin, of course, but to then say the west values democracy is some truly hilarious poo poo.

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

khwarezm posted:

If I can go and fall into complete, nutty Clancyposting for just one post, not because I either want or believe this will happen in the slightest but because of my own curiosity, if the Russians were to detonate a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, what would the rest of the world's response be?

I'm gonna go with nobody knows, that's so far out of precedent that we literally have nothing to compare it with in history. Even the nukes dropped during WW2 were different because only the US had them, they had never been used before, and it was after years of conflict and carpet bombings.

But my bet is they would only nuke Ukraine if NATO was trying to invade Russia across it, which I don't ever see happening. It's too close to Russia, they would be poisoning their own land and people.

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497014009534451754

Allegedly these are some VDV prisoners captured by Ukrainians, but I'm not sure what they're saying.

Sir Bobert Fishbone
Jan 16, 2006

Beebort

khwarezm posted:

If I can go and fall into complete, nutty Clancyposting for just one post, not because I either want or believe this will happen in the slightest but because of my own curiosity, if the Russians were to detonate a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, what would the rest of the world's response be?

they might have one more round of meetings to consider blocking Russia from SWIFT

it's not a question with a knowable answer and it's not really worth asking at this point

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

air raid sirens in kyiv. seems like bombing is coming

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

khwarezm posted:

If I can go and fall into complete, nutty Clancyposting for just one post, not because I either want or believe this will happen in the slightest but because of my own curiosity, if the Russians were to detonate a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, what would the rest of the world's response be?

Everyone would lose their poo poo but unlikely there would be a nuclear response imo. You'd probably see a whole lot of military equipment being "sold" and "advisors" being sent.

Its basically in everyone's interest to make sure poo poo like tactical nukes do not get normalized.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Baronash posted:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497014009534451754

Allegedly these are some VDV prisoners captured by Ukrainians, but I'm not sure what they're saying.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497016106787262468

this seems to be a theme. obviously they are elites/etc so it could by the lie they are told to say.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




ummel posted:

Someone said something about Turkish drones earlier.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497000512163565569

CW: The link has drone footage of war combat, but it is not gore. Mostly armor getting got.

I can't vouch for the website, apparently it is from Belarus? Just edit/delete it if this isn't cool.

It's a reputable news website. They usually talk about human rights stuff.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019

DaysBefore posted:

*sumy fighting*

Gonna remove this to be safe, all the livecams around Sumy show nothing and also this Benny dude is some Turning Point dork with a bunch of plagirism accusations, sorry everyone

coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


khwarezm posted:

If I can go and fall into complete, nutty Clancyposting for just one post, not because I either want or believe this will happen in the slightest but because of my own curiosity, if the Russians were to detonate a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil, what would the rest of the world's response be?

I've seen this asked in this thread before, but nobody engaged, and I'm curious too. I'm pretty familiar with NATO v. Russia nuclear posture, but I flatly don't know what conventional wisdom, international law, or nuclear deterrence strategy have to say about this scenario.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



DaysBefore posted:

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/st...Fthread%2F33663

I guess there's still fighting in Sumy? I thought it fell hours ago.

Absolutely do not trust anything that floor making GBS threads Nazi gently caress says

Chuds / Alt-Right accounts might as well be Russian state propaganda

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

FishBulbia posted:

air raid sirens in kyiv. seems like bombing is coming

Not hearing anything on two streams I have on.

Flesnolk
Apr 11, 2012
Reminds me of that one fascist coffee magazine that inexplicably has an embedded reporter in Ukraine

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

TulliusCicero posted:

Absolutely do not trust anything that floor making GBS threads Nazi gently caress says

Chuds / Alt-Right accounts might as well be Russian state propaganda

this. these fucks and tankies are gonna lie out their rear end about it.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I can't find any confirmation of the opposite either. Everyone is reposting the same 1 video.

there's zero evidence that russia ever had the airfield beyond the original forces videotaped there. re-enforcements apparently didn't materialize.

Until someone shows some evidence of Russians holding the airfield it appears to be the case that the airfield is under ukranian control.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Flesnolk posted:

fascist coffee magazine
???

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Flesnolk posted:

Reminds me of that one fascist coffee magazine that inexplicably has an embedded reporter in Ukraine

much like the foreign paramilitaries who fought early in the conflict on both sides, the people who go off looking for war are usually unbalanced freaks

Trump posted:

Not hearing anything on two streams I have on.

Yeah, was just one 'ring', idk what the deal was.

Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president
It's bizarre seeing high quality war footage and hearing a slavic language and not arabic or whatever

Zero_Grade
Mar 18, 2004

Darktider 🖤🌊

~Neck Angels~

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

We're not even caught up on the news yet, but got home to see my fiancée having a breakdown at this poo poo and it sucks. It kinda felt coming on, but the actual thing kicking off did it in. She, we really, didn't think it would escalate to actual war. It feels awful. I don't know what to do. When she speaks russian to me I know it's serious. Mercifully she's safe and her family here in the US and back in Russia and Kazakhstan are safe. But I hate myself for not feeling her pain, and hate both of us because this is certainly far easier than the people who have loved ones never coming home have it. I don't even know if I should use english or my broken russian to comfort her. Part of me is pissed at the world for putting another target on her back as being a russian with a russian accent in the US she'll have to live with forever. It feels really selfish when people are dead but still.
Yeah I'm dealing with this to some extent as well. Longtime girlfriend's a first generation immigrant (mother's side is Ukrainian, dad's is Russian) and this week has been stressful, to put things mildly. Thankfully the maternal grandparents are over here - Holocaust survivors as well, for added fun - but the whole situation still really sucks. I don't know what the right answer is, but I'm just being here for her right now. No clue how helpful this is, but wanted to let a fellow goon know they're not alone in facing that sort of situation.
I did some quick napkin math and that amount of transport planes, besides being apparently ~1/6 of the Il-76's in service, is somewhere between 2-4 battalion tactical groups (or around a brigade) depending on composition. Probably not the thing you want dropping ten miles outside your capitol on Day One.

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"
The Ecumenical Patriarch spoke with the Metropolitan of Ukraine today.

Via Google Translate:

quote:

Sadly shocked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine this morning, His Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew called His Beatitude Metropolitan Epiphanius of Kyiv and All Ukraine, expressing deep regret over this blatant violation of any notion of international legitimacy. fighting Ukrainian people and families of innocent victims.

The Ecumenical Patriarch condemned this unprovoked attack by Russia on Ukraine, an independent and sovereign state of Europe, as well as human rights violations and brutal violence against our neighbors and, above all, against the civilian population.

The patriarch asks God of love and peace to enlighten the leadership of the Russian Federation so that it understands the tragic consequences of such decisions and actions, which could trigger even a world war.

The Ecumenical Patriarch also called on the leaders of all states, European institutions and international organizations to work for a peaceful settlement of this critical situation through honest dialogue, which is the only means of resolving any problem and resolving any disputes.

The Ecumenical Patriarch fraternally called on the Local Orthodox Churches, as well as all Christians and every person of good will, to pray unceasingly for the Ukrainian people and for the supremacy of peace and justice in Ukraine.

His Beatitude Metropolitan Epiphanius thanked His Holiness Patriarch Bartholomew for his support, prayer and call for the restoration of peace, and spoke about the current situation. In particular, in the conversation, the Metropolitan noted that all major religious denominations in Ukraine unanimously condemned the act of aggression and called on the people to support the Ukrainian state and army in resisting the aggressor.
https://www.pomisna.info/uk/vsi-novyny/vselenskyj-patriarh-varfolomij-zasudyv-nesprovokovane-vtorgnennya-rosiyi-v-ukrayinu/

The Russian Orthodox Church, as far as I can tell, has not commented on the invasion so far.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

ummel posted:

Someone said something about Turkish drones earlier.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497000512163565569

CW: The link has drone footage of war combat, but it is not gore. Mostly armor getting got.

I can't vouch for the website, apparently it is from Belarus? Just edit/delete it if this isn't cool.

I just saw a lot of Russian soldiers die. Symmetric or, near symmetric peer to peer modern warfare is loving terrifying.

We really have not seen this sort of thing happen in a long time.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Zero_Grade posted:

Yeah I'm dealing with this to some extent as well. Longtime girlfriend's a first generation immigrant (mother's side is Ukrainian, dad's is Russian) and this week has been stressful, to put things mildly. Thankfully the maternal grandparents are over here - Holocaust survivors as well, for added fun - but the whole situation still really sucks. I don't know what the right answer is, but I'm just being here for her right now. No clue how helpful this is, but wanted to let a fellow goon know they're not alone in facing that sort of situation.

I did some quick napkin math and that amount of transport planes, besides being apparently ~1/6 of the Il-76's in service, is somewhere between 2-4 battalion tactical groups (or around a brigade) depending on composition. Probably not the thing you want dropping ten miles outside your capitol on Day One.

that was basically the hail mary play

ZombieLenin posted:

I just saw a lot of Russian soldiers die. Symmetric or, near symmetric peer to peer modern warfare is loving terrifying.

We really have not seen this sort of thing happen in a long time.

azerbaijan's war with armenia was barely even 2 years ago

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

William Bear posted:

The Ecumenical Patriarch spoke with the Metropolitan of Ukraine today.

Via Google Translate:

https://www.pomisna.info/uk/vsi-novyny/vselenskyj-patriarh-varfolomij-zasudyv-nesprovokovane-vtorgnennya-rosiyi-v-ukrayinu/

The Russian Orthodox Church, as far as I can tell, has not commented on the invasion so far.

maybe they legit didnt know. i mean they are hand in glove with the russian goverment but it sounds like no one outside putin and the high command knew.

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

ZombieLenin posted:

I just saw a lot of Russian soldiers die. Symmetric or, near symmetric peer to peer modern warfare is loving terrifying.

We really have not seen this sort of thing happen in a long time.

Yeah. Especially because it really looked like the drone operator waited for them to bunch up around the tanks. If not dead those guys are going to be out of it for a bit.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




FishBulbia posted:

This is the retracted statement. The tweet about fighting still going on their from the MoD is after this, so I don't feel confident that they do actually control it.

This isn't the retracted statement, which was made 21:12. That got retracted 21:21, and corrected at 22:50 by Heraschenko. All times as per Kyiv Independent's Telegram. MY read of the MoD tweet is that they're hunting for troops who fled the airport.

Edit: 22:30 on Heraschenko's FB

https://www.facebook.com/anton.gerashchenko.7/posts/4864969360256539

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:29 on Feb 25, 2022

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Zero_Grade posted:

Yeah I'm dealing with this to some extent as well. Longtime girlfriend's a first generation immigrant (mother's side is Ukrainian, dad's is Russian) and this week has been stressful, to put things mildly. Thankfully the maternal grandparents are over here - Holocaust survivors as well, for added fun - but the whole situation still really sucks. I don't know what the right answer is, but I'm just being here for her right now. No clue how helpful this is, but wanted to let a fellow goon know they're not alone in facing that sort of situation.

I did some quick napkin math and that amount of transport planes, besides being apparently ~1/6 of the Il-76's in service, is somewhere between 2-4 battalion tactical groups (or around a brigade) depending on composition. Probably not the thing you want dropping ten miles outside your capitol on Day One.

so that's 3,000 men? out of 180,000? that's a lot to lose on day one right.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Sir Bobert Fishbone posted:

they might have one more round of meetings to consider blocking Russia from SWIFT

it's not a question with a knowable answer and it's not really worth asking at this point

I'm sorry for being flippant about people's lives in asking that but the whole situation is so far beyond what I assumed would happen. I was expecting at maximum for the Russians to consolidate control over Luhansk and Donetsk and consolidate Crimea, I didn't expect invasions from every direction up to and including amphibious assaults near Romania and airborne assaults on Kyiv.

Its like Putin is a huge fan of wargaming and was annoyed at being stuck with the same WW2 scenarios over and over so he decided to create his own.

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

sumy's been captured, sumy's still fighting, the russians just snapped got out of their tanks and walked out of sumy back to russia

Sounds like confusion between Sumy the city itself vs. the footage/photos from Okhtyrka, which is in Sumy Oblast but about 75 km south of Sumy itself.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

so that's 3,000 men? out of 180,000? that's a lot to lose on day one right.

they didn't lose the planes, they never sent them as far as anyone can tell

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup

khwarezm posted:

I'm sorry for being flippant about people's lives in asking that but the whole situation is so far beyond what I assumed would happen. I was expecting at maximum for the Russians to consolidate control over Luhansk and Donetsk and consolidate Crimea, I didn't expect invasions from every direction up to and including amphibious assaults near Romania and airborne assaults on Kyiv.

Its like Putin is a huge fan of wargaming and was annoyed at being stuck with the same WW2 scenarios over and over so he decided to create his own.

Yeah, seriously... they even landed on a tiny-rear end island 20 miles from the mainland and killed all the border guards on it, for what?

Mr. Fall Down Terror
Jan 24, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Dapper_Swindler posted:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497016106787262468

this seems to be a theme. obviously they are elites/etc so it could by the lie they are told to say.

yes, it is unlikely to be the truth. soldiers in the VDV aren't going to be surprised by a "training mission", as if it wasn't obvious to the entire world for a month that ukraine was about to get attacked

these dudes are just doing the "name, rank, and serial number" bit. it was a training mission. i dont know poo poo. i'm not telling you poo poo. and so on

Huggybear
Jun 17, 2005

I got the jimjams
Has anyone mentioned or has there been discussion on the Crimean fresh water connection? After the annexation Ukraine cut off a canal that provided fresh water through the border from the Dnieper, and apparently it was causing a crisis. If you look at that Wikipedia map, the Crimean incursion is literally that pipeline.

Just a thought, but maybe (naively?) Russia just wants some strategic chunks of Ukraine and then sue for peace. If all of the information (especially those drone strikes, jfc) is even semi-accurate, the Russians are getting lit the gently caress up and they will not win a war of attrition especially in a modern urban warfare environment where the good guys have good tech and the rest of the world has their backs.

I mean they can't even fly paratroopers in to a supposedly combined forces surprise attack because their air force is incapable of taking out enough SAMs, or locating them, or getting shot up trying to take them out, presumably.

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ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Herstory Begins Now posted:

that was basically the hail mary play

azerbaijan's war with armenia was barely even 2 years ago

Yes, but we are not talking about belligerents who are as well armed with advanced modern weaponry.

That’s what I am trying to say.

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