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Peanut Butler
Jul 25, 2003



Shooting Blanks posted:

Is Russia at the table for this meeting?

well, lol

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Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Mokotow posted:

For any one willing to chip in gas money, you can paypal me @kylofon . Don’t need much but it’d help. Thanks!

Just learned the two girls Im waiting for are 12 and 15 and also there a cat. Still waiting though, apparently their mom will hand them off and shes going back to the dad waiting on the other side.

Just sent you a bit. If you don't need it, then get the girls something they need. Take care.

Tenchrono
Jun 2, 2011


Mokotow posted:

For any one willing to chip in gas money, you can paypal me @kylofon . Don’t need much but it’d help. Thanks!

Just learned the two girls Im waiting for are 12 and 15 and also there a cat. Still waiting though, apparently their mom will hand them off and shes going back to the dad waiting on the other side.

Thanks friend. I threw in what I assume is around half a tank of gas.

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface
The NATO troop movement both is and isn't a big deal.

The Ukraine thing is understandably insane and it makes sense to redeploy troops to border areas incase poo poo continues to be insane and things get really close to borders. This isn't a super big deal imo. They aren't looking to cross into the Ukraine.

It is a big deal because more armed people on borders in a situation where intervention is a flash point can/will lead to mistakes.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Wibla posted:

It's closed?

I believe the meeting has been delayed until 4pm to water down the resolution to make it palatable for India, China, and the other gleep glops not on board.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

TheRat posted:

Is a drone strike no straight up murdering someone?

Obama wasn't personally saying "That man talked poo poo about me, kill him"

Putin has. Multiple times.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
chatter on the UNSC feed is the meeting is delayed an hour

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Shooting Blanks posted:

Is Russia at the table for this meeting?

Unless something changed today, Russia is currently the chair of the UN security council!

Dopilsya
Apr 3, 2010

Mokotow posted:

Hey! Sorry for brief answers im in the car in a field. Yes, every male is getting turned around at the border

Regarding point two, I think the Polish side is heavily policed. I have no idea about the other side! There’s zero chance to sneak in a car, can’t say if he could pay anyone off but I doubt it!

I would say from what I’m seeing this is heavily enforced and the border is really hot.

Thank you so much! Everything helps, you don't ever need to be sorry for being only able to give limited answers. Thank you.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

If Putin were genuinely popular then Navalny wouldn't get a few months in prison every time polling day comes around.

E: I mean there's a genuine base of support, but the Kremlin has its thumb down on the scales of democracy as hard as you possibly can before you just give up on elections entirely

Alchenar fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Feb 25, 2022

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I think "Not limited to Ukraine" is rhetorical more than specific. He's saying this isn't a simple border conflict or matter between two nations or what Putin and the Carlson/Greenwald/Gabbard types are painting it as. That Putin's got bigger ambitions and this is part of them. But I don't think its Biden coyly saying "he's planning to attack Poland next week." They've been shockingly specific about their intelligence reports and even more shockingly accurate. If they knew of some kind of plan to attack another country I think they'd say it. This is the more typical sort of statement simply warning that Putin is everyone's problem and dismissing Ukraine to history isn't the right option even if you don't care about them.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

quarantinethepast posted:

The last presidential election in 2018 had 67.5% turnout. People don't vote in the US either, but Trump never got anywhere above like 40%.

What are the sources for your claim?

The election where there are videos from official polling site cameras of ballot stuffing?

Orthanc6
Nov 4, 2009

Inner Light posted:

Nukes are not going to fly. NATO will not get involved in Ukraine, and Russia will not push further.

I think what that article, and what the level-headed are getting at, is that there seems to be a legit concern from NATO that Russia intends to extend this conflict outside of Ukraine. Which seems stupidly insane, given that I don't think Putin can even hold all of Ukraine to begin with, but then it was also stupidly insane to invade Ukraine with zero justification and eat all these sanctions which were obviously going to happen. Particularly, Finland joining NATO right now could be a tipping point. Russia has warned them not to, but if they do they would not be integrated into NATO's command structures for some time, and Russia might use that to test the alliance if Russia feels like doing something dangerous. NATO will definitely defend it's current members in eastern Europe, that's what the tripwire forces are for, but those forces aren't in Finland and will take time to get there should they join.

This said, Finland should definitely join cause they will be next on the chopping block if Russia's political structure survives this war.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Alchenar posted:

If Putin were genuinely popular then Navalny wouldn't get a few months in prison every time polling day comes around.

Am I misremembering or is Navalny a right wing psycho that compared muslims to cockroaches that had to be exterminated?

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Telsa Cola posted:

The NATO troop movement both is and isn't a big deal.

The Ukraine thing is understandably insane and it makes sense to redeploy troops to border areas incase poo poo continues to be insane and things get really close to borders. This isn't a super big deal imo. They aren't looking to cross into the Ukraine.

It is a big deal because more armed people on borders in a situation where intervention is a flash point can/will lead to mistakes.
I imagine it is also meant to reduce any clever ideas people might get about doing a LITTLE bit of border-violation as a treat, or firing a barrage into a crowd just over the polish border, etc.

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.

Peanut Butler posted:

what's CATI?

Computer assisted telephone interviewing

Ne Cede Malis
Aug 30, 2008

Mokotow posted:

For any one willing to chip in gas money, you can paypal me @kylofon . Don’t need much but it’d help. Thanks!

Just learned the two girls Im waiting for are 12 and 15 and also there’s a cat. Still waiting though, apparently their mom will hand them off and shes going back to the dad waiting on the other side.

Sent you some too. o7

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Inner Light posted:

Nukes are not going to fly. NATO will not get involved in Ukraine, and Russia will not push further.

You're probably right but a lot of people with this exact same kind of certainty said that Russia would never actually invade Ukraine. So maybe let's not speak in absolutes about a future which no one can know.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Play posted:

I want someone to ask Putin what the hell is going on with his freaky inflated head. I swear he didn't look like that just a year ago. I'm a putin head truther, it must be connected somehow

Also, apologies if this was posted I did skip a few pages to get to the new stuff

https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1497112266138869779

So.. I can't read that exact article due to the paywall, but it looks like most of that money is because of stocks/ruble values tumbling according to https://www.forbes.com/sites/iainma...sh=7849752e3a60. Wouldn't that be more due to Russia's invasions and uncertainty surrounding that and not the sanctions themselves?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013


In the description it says it's been postponed to 4pm EST, so check back then I guess

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

The US MLRS rocket launchers primarily fire rockets that contain several hundred small submunitions, I presume the same is true of the Russian systems.

Also in theory I believe banned by some weapons limitation treaties owing to their propensity for having a lot of duds mixed in, resulting in a lot of UXO lying around afterwards. Of course, people who have them do not sign up to those treaties because they like using them.

Peanut Butler
Jul 25, 2003



quarantinethepast posted:

Computer assisted telephone interviewing

so we don't know the org that did the polling

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Inner Light posted:

Nukes are not going to fly. NATO will not get involved in Ukraine, and Russia will not push further.

Yeah, there is no indication Nukes will fly. NATO is just sending a signal to Putin: Ukraine better be it, especially after his Minister publicly threatened Finland and Sweded.

France has already chewed out Putin verbally over the vague threats at the beginning of the week.

RoboChrist 9000
Dec 14, 2006

Mater Dolorosa
I could be mistaken but I mean, while popular revolt is always a threat, with a dictatorship - especially one like Russia - isn't the popularity that really matters not 'how popular is the dictator with the masses?' but rather 'how popular is the dictator with the generals, the ministers, and the other power brokers and authority figures?'

Like isn't the more realistic threat to Putin that one or more powerful oligarchs realize that his insane adventure in Ukraine is costing them a lot of money and for no real gain, and that maybe Russia - and more importantly their bank account - would be better off without Putin?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Play posted:

You're probably right but a lot of people with this exact same kind of certainty said that Russia would never actually invade Ukraine. So maybe let's not speak in absolutes about a future which no one can know.

The point is that if Russian troops get to the Polish border, there will be a wall of NATO soldiers waiting for them - and maybe they'll think twice about trying to cross it.

The goal is containment, not escalation.

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface
Someone is definitely going to shoot over the border though. I feel like that happens everytime.

Peanut Butler
Jul 25, 2003



idk if nukes will fly

I still put together a bugout and spent what I could on not having my gas needle near E, which feels ridiculous, and is probably unnecessary, but mindfully I feel it assuaging any wild anxiety that arises during these events and also being isolated d/t covid/not having a fixed address atm

small butter
Oct 8, 2011
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!

Kalit posted:

So.. I can't read that exact article due to the paywall, but it looks like most of that money is because of stocks/ruble values tumbling according to https://www.forbes.com/sites/iainma...sh=7849752e3a60. Wouldn't that be more due to Russia's invasions and uncertainty surrounding that and not the sanctions themselves?

Not necessarily. The index of the market obviously represents real companies, and some of those banks and others were sanctioned, leading them to fall more than others. There's the general sentiment surrounding war as well, but if earnings can affect a company's stock, sanctions will definitely do it as well.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

Kalit posted:

So.. I can't read that exact article due to the paywall, but it looks like most of that money is because of stocks/ruble values tumbling according to https://www.forbes.com/sites/iainma...sh=7849752e3a60. Wouldn't that be more due to Russia's invasions and uncertainty surrounding that and not the sanctions themselves?

Not sure, I can't read it either. But you're probably right. The subheader is the correct one.

That being said it's all connected and it wouldn't be possible to accurately separate which effect is the result of which exact cause.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Inner Light posted:

Is that really MLRS though? Why are the explosions so tiny, like tinier than 1 frag grenade each?

Seems like a strange ineffective weapon.

You know how in a raid, some dipshit DPS always stands inside the red circle and dies even though they barely cover 10% of the screen? It's like that except for soldiers.

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


Putin has been disappearing the oligarchs who could be a threat for decades, and probably has thoroughly infiltrated the staff and accomplices of the survivors.

There will be no coup

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.

TheRat posted:

Am I misremembering or is Navalny a right wing psycho that compared muslims to cockroaches that had to be exterminated?

He was known for that early in his political career. However recently he requested the Quran while in prison. Maybe that's a cynical play, or maybe islamophobia is low on his radar compared to much more important things.

dominoeffect
Oct 1, 2013

KillHour posted:

You know how in a raid, some dipshit DPS always stands inside the red circle and dies even though they barely cover 10% of the screen? It's like that except for soldiers.

Ah, thanks. Now I truly grasp it.

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

Peanut Butler posted:

you have to pay money to see the source on this

my bet is on it being like, "99% of people voted for Saddam"

the poll was made in cooperation with the Levada Center, seat: Moscow

that you can see without paying money

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

TheRat posted:

Am I misremembering or is Navalny a right wing psycho that compared muslims to cockroaches that had to be exterminated?

Navalny is an unpleasant ethno-nationalist by Western standards yes. But there's a reason Putin and the siloviki hate and occasionally try to kill him. If he won an election he would probably be fine with more elections.

Szmitten
Apr 26, 2008
Is the Nato thing just a reaction to Article 4 being invoked rather than an anticipation of Article 5?

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Telsa Cola posted:

Someone is definitely going to shoot over the border though. I feel like that happens everytime.
I assume there is some sort of procedure or confirmatory step if, for instance, a Russian plane gets lost and bombs a Polish substation when they "meant" to hit a Ukrainian one. But I also imagine it is far easier to say 'OK, you hosed up - don't do it again - reparations payment/we evict some minsiters' over some craters in a field or unmanned infrastructure being blown up than... you know... an actual attack on troops.

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

RoboChrist 9000 posted:

I could be mistaken but I mean, while popular revolt is always a threat, with a dictatorship - especially one like Russia - isn't the popularity that really matters not 'how popular is the dictator with the masses?' but rather 'how popular is the dictator with the generals, the ministers, and the other power brokers and authority figures?'

Like isn't the more realistic threat to Putin that one or more powerful oligarchs realize that his insane adventure in Ukraine is costing them a lot of money and for no real gain, and that maybe Russia - and more importantly their bank account - would be better off without Putin?

Absolutely, lacking an absolutely massive popular revolt of which there is no sign and even less likelihood.

Still, it's not weird to want to know how much support Putin actually has among all Russians. Makes it either easier or harder to hate them all, I'd imagine

Rad Russian
Aug 15, 2007

Soviet Power Supreme!

OddObserver posted:

The election where there are videos from official polling site cameras of ballot stuffing?

You don't need to stuff any ballots, I'm sure they're even counted fairly. Putin simply imprisons/kills anyone that polls above ~10-15% support. So yes the election ends up being a choice between Putin, some crazy Communist that never polled above 3%, and some crazy Nazi that never polled above 1%. Putin getting 70% of votes in such an election doesn't indicate that people love him. If Trump killed anyone that ever polled above 10%, he'd clean up as well.

Rad Russian fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Feb 25, 2022

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ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
On the Russian FSB and polling: https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1497302149486858241

quote:

According to the polling data, Ukrainians in early February were, by and large, pessimistic about the future and apathetic about politics, and did not trust politicians, political parties or the majority of Ukraine’s domestic institutions. Their main concerns were overwhelmingly inflation and the cost of living, with both perceived to be rising.

Trust in the office of the president sat at 27%, with 67% distrustful of the presidency. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had poor approval ratings at −34, but a high proportion of Ukrainians polled still professed that they would vote for him over other candidates. The Ukrainian Army, both regular and reserve, was highly trusted, with 68% of the population supportive, as were military veterans, while regional and municipal governments were comparatively well-trusted with over 40% of the population having a favourable opinion of them. However, other institutions enjoyed approval figures that ranged from mediocre to poor, including the police at 28% and domestic security services at 23%. Trust in the Rada – the Ukrainian parliament – and in political parties was abysmal, at 11% and 8% respectively. And when it came to willingness to serve in the military or otherwise resist a foreign invasion, 40% of respondents stated that they would not defend Ukraine.

The population notably had a high opinion of the military’s capabilities, although this is worryingly divergent from the assessment of professional military analysts. 51% of respondents believed that the Ukrainian Army had the capacity to repel an invasion force, despite Ukrainian technical capabilities being decisively outmatched and outnumbered by those deployed by Russia. They also for the most part did not believe that the Russian military build-up – of which 90% of those surveyed were aware – would necessarily result in invasion. These expectations are in the process of being shattered

....

The problem with surveys of social attitudes is that they are a snapshot of a moment in time. In stable conditions, trends in the data can suggest the trajectory of public sentiment, and the FSB has social trends data for Ukraine going back as far as 2006. But a seismic shift of context can cause major variations in sentiment and attitudes. Air attacks, even when limited to precision strikes on military targets, have historically been perceived extremely negatively by civilian populations subjected to them, who may also not fully understand the difference between area bombardment and military targeting. This often inspires intense hatred of the attacker and stiffens the resolve to resist. Likewise, military casualties in the face of an enemy ground invasion can make a population more determined to resist, so long as resistance does not appear hopeless. Ukraine’s small but symbolically important tactical victories like the retaking of Antonov airport gain a wider significance when looked at in this light.

If Russia hoped that shock and awe in the destruction of the Ukrainian military might deter resistance, historical experience points to the opposite result. Thus, while the FSB survey may have been accurate in measuring opinions at the time it was conducted, it told the Russians little about how sentiments would evolve in the aftermath of an invasion.

important not to huff one's own farts about kinetic strikes validating a political outcome fait accompli too much

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