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BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

Mr Luxury Yacht posted:

Every time I hear "There will never be an insurgency because there's no jungles or mountains" like, do you think that stopped Iraq? Baghdad isn't exactly a mountainous jungle.

And those guys never received NATO intelligence and arms.

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Nazzadan
Jun 22, 2016



Nazzadan posted:

Independent of the actual conflict, these past 2 days have been home to some of the loving stone cold hardest statements known to man.

The Ukranian ambassador saying to the Russian ambassador "there is no purgatory for war criminals, you're going straight to Hell."
The 25 year old girl responding to "what are you doing after this" with "making molotovs."
The whole Ghost of Kyiv thing.
"Ukranians, surrender." "Russian warship, go gently caress yourselves."
"How long can you hold out?" "Forever."
And now the reoccuring "welcome to Hell, Russians." Just absolute galvanizing poo poo, beyond inspirational. Good luck to Kyiv tonight.

I would like to update this list with "I need ammunition, not a ride."

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


ZombieLenin posted:

The funny thing is, as of yesterday, Russia could not really sustain air superiority either. It was closer to an air parity situation. I think it helps that new AA weapon systems are crossing into Ukraine from Poland.

Poland doesn’t give a gently caress and it’s beautiful.

tracecomplete
Feb 26, 2017

CommieGIR posted:

If he survives this, that man is going to be able to drink anywhere for free.

Between this and the former boxing champion mayor and his former boxing champion brother and loving Poroshenko and sunflower lady I'm fairly sure that NATO had better earmark as foreign aid no less than two complete distilleries.

Vietnom nom nom
Oct 24, 2000
Forum Veteran
Would be interesting to know how real-time the intel the U.S. is providing is. The U.S. has probably the one thing more valuable than weapons to the Ukrainians and that's live satellite monitoring of the entire theater. Knowing where Russian columns and troop movements are is potentially a huge advantage for the Ukrainians.

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.
Jfc the absolute ballsy leadership coming out of Ukraine is refreshing. I’m so used to leaders in Australia dodging and weaving responsibility that actually seeing leaders actually doing the thing is a bit foreign.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Looks like Russia may be starting to get their more high tech poo poo involved, tho not with success so far

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497433202633236483?t=BbgO_l8SheWfWGu9Jd-tOw&s=19

There were also reports earlier of a major internet provider going down, but it hasn't visibly slowed the posting rate

Chicken Butt
Oct 27, 2010

Nazzadan posted:

I would like to update this list with "I need ammunition, not a ride."

Don't forget "Put sunflower seeds in your pockets so they'll grow when you die."

Sally Sprodgkin
May 23, 2007
AP is now reporting that the two Il-76 planes shot down by UKR was confirmed by US officials.

Doesn't make it true, but adds credibility.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes

Vietnom nom nom posted:

Would be interesting to know how real-time the intel the U.S. is providing is. The U.S. has probably the one thing more valuable than weapons to the Ukrainians and that's live satellite monitoring of the entire theater. Knowing where Russian columns and troop movements are is potentially a huge advantage for the Ukrainians.

I read a story a few days ago about how the CIA has been privately training Ukrainian special ops forces in Florida for years. Their main concern was that many parts of the Ukrainian security services were compromised by Russian agents, and so they had to be extra careful about isolating the special ops forces that they trained and not passing on any info to the Ukrainians that they didn't want the Russians to know. Wonder the extent to the collaboration now that Ukraine's entire fate is at stake.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Chicken Butt posted:

Don't forget "Put sunflower seeds in your pockets so they'll grow when you die."

Layer to this I haven't seen anyone mention on SA - even though it's native to the US the sunflower is Ukraine's national flower

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug

KitConstantine posted:

Looks like Russia may be starting to get their more high tech poo poo involved, tho not with success so far

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497433202633236483?t=BbgO_l8SheWfWGu9Jd-tOw&s=19

There were also reports earlier of a major internet provider going down, but it hasn't visibly slowed the posting rate

I was reading earlier that Russian drone tech is pretty crap, which was a total surprise to me.

Flesnolk
Apr 11, 2012

tracecomplete posted:

Between this and the former boxing champion mayor and his former boxing champion brother

As a lifelong boxing fan, it's been really strange hearing all these news outlets refer to VITALI loving KLITSCHKO as just "the Mayor of Kyiv" :V

DeliciousPatriotism
May 26, 2008

KitConstantine posted:

Looks like Russia may be starting to get their more high tech poo poo involved, tho not with success so far

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497433202633236483?t=BbgO_l8SheWfWGu9Jd-tOw&s=19

There were also reports earlier of a major internet provider going down, but it hasn't visibly slowed the posting rate

I thought there was a naval landing in Odessa, it doesn't seem to have fallen? Seen a bit of footage the last few hours of Odessa defenders in action still, mostly AA.

The Russians do seem extremely extended, I'm wonder how well their lead elements can keep food in their stomachs and ammunition in their weapons.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Poland doesn’t give a gently caress and it’s beautiful.

Telling Poland there's a way to make Russia bleed and it's right next door, is like opening a tuna can in a house with cats.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

KitConstantine posted:

Layer to this I haven't seen anyone mention on SA - even though it's native to the US the sunflower is Ukraine's national flower

People were mentioning it alot when the video turned up.

tracecomplete
Feb 26, 2017

Vietnom nom nom posted:

Would be interesting to know how real-time the intel the U.S. is providing is. The U.S. has probably the one thing more valuable than weapons to the Ukrainians and that's live satellite monitoring of the entire theater. Knowing where Russian columns and troop movements are is potentially a huge advantage for the Ukrainians.

I think everybody on the other side has to assume that Ukraine is getting everything they can handle. And it explains their relative success with targeting troop transports. Even comparatively old fighters are three times as fast as an Il-76 and have a 10,000 foot service ceiling advantage, if you know where they are and know what their escorts are doing.

Smeef
Aug 15, 2003

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!



Pillbug

Flesnolk posted:

As a lifelong boxing fan, it's been really strange hearing all these news outlets refer to VITALI loving KLITSCHKO as just "the Mayor of Kyiv" :V

Ironfist rule indeed

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Flesnolk posted:

As a lifelong boxing fan, it's been really strange hearing all these news outlets refer to VITALI loving KLITSCHKO as just "the Mayor of Kyiv" :V

I don't really follow boxing but if you asked me to imagine "Ukrainian boxing-champion turned politician", Vitali Klitschko is pretty much exactly what I'd imagine.

Apparently he's Hayden Panettiere's ex and the father of her child. Dude's lived about four lifetimes' worth of stuff.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Holy poo poo, I didn't believe it. That's like 200-300 dead Russian paratroopers

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497431853531381762

buglord
Jul 31, 2010

Cheating at a raffle? I sentence you to 1 year in jail! No! Two years! Three! Four! Five years! Ah! Ah! Ah! Ah!

Buglord

Dante posted:

Reading this thread and some other stuff on the internet I do think some are taking the isolated tidbits of good military news as evidence of something more than it is. Even though Ukraine has had some success, the strategic situation is untenable. Russia has invaded an absolutely huge country in both land area and population, and are fighting in the capital by the 48 hour mark. Within the next few days Ukrainian air assets will be gone and Russia will have completely air superiority. Ukrainan forces will be exhausted from fighting, while Russia can rotate in fresh troops. While I hope there's an insurgency, Ukraine is a very flat country. The topography is pretty much the opposite of Afghanistan or Switzerland, and the climate is very different from Vietnam. It would not be an easy place for the guerilla side of an insurgency. The Nazis did have issues dealing with insurgencies, but they also successfully occupied most of europe and were beaten by conventional armies - not partisan revolts. The Ukranian people are incredibly brave, but Russia can and will grind Ukranian military forces down. Molotovs and civillians sniping from windows won't stop Russia in Kiev anymore than it did in Grozny.

Ukraines successes are pretty heartening, but yeah I wouldn't bet any money on them surviving very long. Absolutely love to be wrong about that, though.

I'm not sure how I feel about Ukraine taking the insurgency route. It would give Putin the bloody nose he deserves, but I cant think of insurgencies that dont include large amounts of human suffering with a lot of crossfire baked in.

Mustard Iceman
Apr 8, 2015

Weak against ketchup

Whatever road Poland is using to take stuff into Ukraine, the first question is what's the nearest airfield and the next is why aren't there C-17s full of stuff headed there right now?

Charlz Guybon posted:

Holy poo poo, I didn't believe it. That's like 200-300 dead Russian paratroopers

So like, the fighting equivalent of one Ukrainian grandfather.

Flesnolk
Apr 11, 2012

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

I don't really follow boxing but if you asked me to imagine "Ukrainian boxing-champion turned politician", Vitali Klitschko is pretty much exactly what I'd imagine.

Apparently he's Hayden Panettiere's ex and the father of her child. Dude's lived about four lifetimes' worth of stuff.

If I recall correctly Panettiere's ex is Wladimir? Who is also a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

Sinteres posted:

Weird how you keep ignoring all the posts where I say they're the ones responsible for the invasion, and that the invasion is wrong. That doesn't mean everyone else is a hero. Stop being dishonest.

Every Ukranian became a hero the instant Russia invaded, sorry.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Charlz Guybon posted:

Holy poo poo, I didn't believe it. That's like 200-300 dead Russian paratroopers

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497431853531381762

Adjusting for scale, this is some Operation Market Garden level loving up.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Flesnolk posted:

If I recall correctly Panettiere's ex is Wladimir? Who is also a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

Oh, right, yeah. My bad.

wins32767
Mar 16, 2007

So here's something I don't get. The mechanized attack on Kiev came down from Belorussia down the closest road, the one that took it past Chernobyl. That road goes along the Tetereiv river and the first bridge is at Ivankiv. From there, looking at google maps, you can tell by the road closures that the Russians took basically a straight shot to Kiev from there. The total distance is ~180km, which they've managed in 2 days. That says that the bridge wasn't blown and that no meaningful forces were put in front of them to slow them down. I don't get that decision. I guess the Ukrainians want to fight in Kiev? It's a really long single road logistical tether for the Russians to be pushing supplies and reinforcements down, so maybe that's it?

DeliciousPatriotism
May 26, 2008

buglord posted:

Ukraines successes are pretty heartening, but yeah I wouldn't bet any money on them surviving very long. Absolutely love to be wrong about that, though.

I'm not sure how I feel about Ukraine taking the insurgency route. It would give Putin the bloody nose he deserves, but I cant think of insurgencies that dont include large amounts of human suffering with a lot of crossfire baked in.

Russia will do their best to Groznyfy Kiev.

But also Ukrainians fought in a besieged airport for 8 months. No major cities have fallen, its been penetrative thrusts trying to get to Kiev with long tails of logistics trying to keep up (and apparently getting blown up.)

wins32767 posted:

So here's something I don't get. The mechanized attack on Kiev came down from Belorussia down the closest road, the one that took it past Chernobyl. That road goes along the Tetereiv river and the first bridge is at Ivankiv. From there, looking at google maps, you can tell by the road closures that the Russians took basically a straight shot to Kiev from there. The total distance is ~180km, which they've managed in 2 days. That says that the bridge wasn't blown and that no meaningful forces were put in front of them to slow them down. I don't get that decision. I guess the Ukrainians want to fight in Kiev? It's a really long single road logistical tether for the Russians to be pushing supplies and reinforcements down, so maybe that's it?

It's possible the Ukrainians are trying to fight the Russians in places that they know they can hold better than elsewhere, they're definitely being fed intel from NATO and acting on it.

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

Chuka Umana posted:

Refugee from cspam here, going to order some mcdonalds for solidarity with the ukrainians

i was hoping what's unfolded might open some eyes, but nah these people (SA, and beyond) are just evil

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Mokotow posted:

For any one willing to chip in gas money, you can paypal me @kylofon . Dont need much but itd help. Thanks!

Just learned the two girls Im waiting for are 12 and 15 and also theres a cat. Still waiting though, apparently their mom will hand them off and shes going back to the dad waiting on the other side.

Sent you $15 on Paypal

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

buglord posted:

Ukraines successes are pretty heartening, but yeah I wouldn't bet any money on them surviving very long. Absolutely love to be wrong about that, though.

I'm not sure how I feel about Ukraine taking the insurgency route. It would give Putin the bloody nose he deserves, but I cant think of insurgencies that dont include large amounts of human suffering with a lot of crossfire baked in.

There will also be a lot human suffering if there is no insurgency. It will just be the quiet kind that doesn't make the news, where your sister get disappeared and you never see her again or your uncle falls out of a window.

Bubbacub
Apr 17, 2001

Charlz Guybon posted:

Holy poo poo, I didn't believe it. That's like 200-300 dead Russian paratroopers

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497431853531381762

They said the shootdowns were south of Kiev. Sounds like Russia was gambling and trying to drop paratroopers behind the line.

Sanguinia
Jan 1, 2012

~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

Flesnolk posted:

As a lifelong boxing fan, it's been really strange hearing all these news outlets refer to VITALI loving KLITSCHKO as just "the Mayor of Kyiv" :V

Their President is Steven Colbert as played by The Rock and their capital city's mayor is a Heavyweight Champion. Maybe NATO SHOULD join Ukraine rather than the other way around.

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Charlz Guybon posted:

Holy poo poo, I didn't believe it. That's like 200-300 dead Russian paratroopers

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497431853531381762

When was the last time a combatant lost so many paratroopers in the plane? Between this and the failed airfield assault, this has got to be some of the worst employment of air assault forces we’ve seen in a while. Extremely clear that the Russians do not have air superiority at all.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Speaking of logistics - lots of heavy metal coming up through Stroganovka. Russian metal by the Zs on the tanks

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1497435823884705792?t=Vh8HJoclsYJaBc-XkmR-jA&s=19

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

wins32767 posted:

So here's something I don't get. The mechanized attack on Kiev came down from Belorussia down the closest road, the one that took it past Chernobyl. That road goes along the Tetereiv river and the first bridge is at Ivankiv. From there, looking at google maps, you can tell by the road closures that the Russians took basically a straight shot to Kiev from there. The total distance is ~180km, which they've managed in 2 days. That says that the bridge wasn't blown and that no meaningful forces were put in front of them to slow them down. I don't get that decision. I guess the Ukrainians want to fight in Kiev? It's a really long single road logistical tether for the Russians to be pushing supplies and reinforcements down, so maybe that's it?

Kiev is a really big city. WIkipedia says 839 km2 (324 sq mi) with 3.4 million in the metro.

Unless they're outnumbered 10 to 1, defenders who know a city like that well can run rings around invaders.

Captain Stalin
May 11, 2004

Have no fear, the Captain is here!
Man, this war is doing to paratroopers what world war 1 did to cavalry.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Adjusting for scale, this is some Operation Market Garden level loving up.

I've been thinking Operation Eagle Claw, but Market Garden is definitely more appropos.

It doesn't matter how badass and highly-trained your soldiers are, if the transport they're in gets shot down, it just means you have a bunch of badass and highly-trained corpses.

I'm particularly wondering why the Russians' plan seems to be landing a bunch of paratroopers in these giant transports and not having them jump into or around Kyiv? They're all parachute-trained in VDV.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Adjusting for scale, this is some Operation Market Garden level loving up.

A lot of paratroopers died in D-Day too. This is a major conventional war, literally thousands of soldiers will die every week instead of every 10 years.

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Captain Stalin posted:

Man, this war is doing to paratroopers what world war 1 did to cavalry.

I mean, this has always been the truth with paratroopers.

They're huge risk, huge reward.

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