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Small White Dragon posted:I don't think there's any way Ukraine "wins"; they don't and won't strike back and take Russian territory. Best case, Putin calls it off after a while and tells everybody at home they achieved whatever crazy goal he had in mind. Honestly that might be enough to destroy his rule. There's nothing more pathetic and vulnerable than a weak strong man e: so he won't back down I mean
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Feb 26, 2022 06:24
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Delthalaz posted:I'm rooting for Ukraine as hard as most but I'm trying to temper my expectations here. From what I understand Ukraine holding out a week, or two weeks, would be pretty remarkable considering Russian strength. (let alone 'winning' whatever that would mean. If Ukraine won the war it would be such a mind boggling humiliation Putin would be deposed and dead). It's been two days US intelligence figured Kyiv would fall within 96 hours, they're doing better than expected though.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:25
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DeliciousPatriotism posted:Putin just seems like he can barely contain his anger anymore, the weird staged videos show that. The longer this draws on the more awful it's likely to become. Derek Davison, on his "American Prestige" podcast, brought up the fact that Putin has heavily isolated himself during the pandemic, and suggested it's possible that this changed his personality for the worse.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:25
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Sinteres posted:There wasn't a superpower feeding Iraq weapons and satellite info on US troop movements. Plus by 2003 Iraq had been under crippling sanctions and fairly regular bombing for over a decade. That said, I think the US would do better than Russia has so far at invading a country like Ukraine, but a big part of the difference in terms of casualty count would almost definitely be actually dominating the skies for an extended period of time and degrading enemy defenses before rushing in. I think the 'actually it's Russia's battle plan to sacrifice large numbers of lives' thing is a bit of a cope that plays into human wave attack bullshit, and they're legitimately facing stiffer resistance than they expected, or Putin made the generals push harder than they knew they should. Maybe Russia will clown on Ukraine over the next few days and we'll get casualty estimates substantially revised downward and it'll look better for them, but right now I don't think they're having a great time of it. I'm beginning to honestly just think that the Russian invasion force for this (something south of 200k troops) just is too small for the task, unless they can actually manage a decapitation strike against Kyiv, and even then that might not magically give them control over the rest of the country.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:26
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Majorian posted:Derek Davison, on his "American Prestige" podcast, brought up the fact that Putin has heavily isolated himself during the pandemic, and suggested it's possible that this changed his personality for the worse. I think a lot of us can probably relate to that.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:26
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Majorian posted:Derek Davison, on his "American Prestige" podcast, brought up the fact that Putin has heavily isolated himself during the pandemic, and suggested it's possible that this changed his personality for the worse. This is exactly what I posted who knows how many pages back.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:27
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Majorian posted:Derek Davison, on his "American Prestige" podcast, brought up the fact that Putin has heavily isolated himself during the pandemic, and suggested it's possible that this changed his personality for the worse. US intelligence, Rubio implied in one of his tweets (I can't bother) said that "something is wrong with Putin" but he couldn't share the specifics.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Probably a target painter of sorts, with that purple light only being visible in camera sensor. To necro this (from a few hours ago), near infrared light shows up as a spooky purple-pink to digital cameras. So yes, it's probably a laser rangefinder or target designator. Vietnom nom nom posted:Would be interesting to know how real-time the intel the U.S. is providing is. The U.S. has probably the one thing more valuable than weapons to the Ukrainians and that's live satellite monitoring of the entire theater. Knowing where Russian columns and troop movements are is potentially a huge advantage for the Ukrainians. 
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Feb 26, 2022 06:27
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Sinteres posted:I think a lot of us can probably relate to that. So basically, we need to get more politicians on message boards so they can do some shitposting to work out their feelings rather than wars?
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Feb 26, 2022 06:27
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Randarkman posted:I'm beginning to honestly just think that the Russian invasion force for this (something south of 200k troops) just is too small for the task, unless they can actually manage a decapitation strike against Kyiv, and even then that might not magically give them control over the rest of the country. Yeah, it's certainly not going to be enough to occupy the country at this rate. Sekenr posted:This is exactly what I posted who knows how many pages back. Cool! I didn't see it, but I'll take your word for it. 
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Feb 26, 2022 06:28
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https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1497435553503092736 I wonder, along with France's 300 million Euros, what can be achieved with this cashflow while Kyiv is under siege?
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Feb 26, 2022 06:28
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Relevant Tangent posted:US intelligence figured Kyiv would fall within 96 hours, they're doing better than expected though. They're doing _way_ better than I expected too, but it also hasn't been 96 hours. I guess they're lucky they didn't elect an anthropologist
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Feb 26, 2022 06:29
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Tuna-Fish posted:The next word in tanks is active protection systems, basically very light self-defence aa that shoots down missiles like Javelin. The idea should work, and Russia has been talking up their homegrown Arena system for a while, but they don't seem to have many (or really, any) actually deployed here. Would have been useful if that money had been spent on those instead of apartments in London. Javs use top attack though.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:30
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After 1/6/2021, I'd say that Russia would have had a better chance just taking the US capital than it has Kyiv so far.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:30
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Relevant Tangent posted:US intelligence figured Kyiv would fall within 96 hours, they're doing better than expected though. Still have two more days to go to invalidate that, but yeah. Randarkman posted:I'm beginning to honestly just think that the Russian invasion force for this (something south of 200k troops) just is too small for the task, unless they can actually manage a decapitation strike against Kyiv, and even then that might not magically give them control over the rest of the country. Sounds like Putin was trying to pull another Georgia 2008: a short, quick, and decisive campaign that blitzkrieged forces to the capitol for them to capitulate and then retreat back to their new border.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:30
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Getting the impression the majority of Russian troops don't want to be there
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Feb 26, 2022 06:31
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Delthalaz posted:Honestly that might be enough to destroy his rule. There's nothing more pathetic and vulnerable than a weak strong man Unfortunately, I don't think he cares how much Russians have to die to achieve his goal. I think the best hope might be that if Ukraine can inflict a high enough price, it'll piss off all the families of dead soldiers that have otherwise just put up with him.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:31
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Nazzadan posted:Independent of the actual conflict, these past 2 days have been home to some of the loving stone cold hardest statements known to man. Don’t forget the Babushka telling the Russians to put sunflower seeds in their pockets so something good will grow from their corpses.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:31
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Sinteres posted:There wasn't a superpower feeding Iraq weapons and satellite info on US troop movements. Plus by 2003 Iraq had been under crippling sanctions and fairly regular bombing for over a decade. That said, I think the US would do better than Russia has so far at invading a country like Ukraine, but a big part of the difference in terms of casualty count would almost definitely be actually dominating the skies for an extended period of time and degrading enemy defenses before rushing in. I think the 'actually it's Russia's battle plan to sacrifice large numbers of lives' thing is a bit of a cope that plays into human wave attack bullshit, and they're legitimately facing stiffer resistance than they expected, or Putin made the generals push harder than they knew they should. Maybe Russia will clown on Ukraine over the next few days and we'll get casualty estimates substantially revised downward and it'll look better for them, but right now I don't think they're having a great time of it. Putin's goal is to quickly capture Kiev with minimal violence. Simply having a much larger more powerful military just isn't enough and the longer the war drags the worse it's going to get. The last thing Putin wants is long drawn occupation with an active slow burning insurgency that never ends. He wants to rule Ukraine but knows that going about it by destroying the Country in the process won't work because the entire population will hate him even more. His first move was to essentially "back cap" the enemy base and that failed. It looks like they've greatly underestimated the Ukrainian armed forces. I say if the war drags on over the summer, it's a failure. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 06:34 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 06:32
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OctaMurk posted:A lot of paratroopers died in D-Day too. This is a major conventional war, literally thousands of soldiers will die every week instead of every 10 years. I'm talking about in terms of what the paratroopers achieved, not just raw casualties. The D-Day airborne landings mostly achieved their objectives despite the casualties involved. Market Garden and these Russian attacks did not.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:33
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Taco Duck posted:Getting the impression the majority of
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Feb 26, 2022 06:34
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Delthalaz posted:I'm rooting for Ukraine as hard as most but I'm trying to temper my expectations here. From what I understand Ukraine holding out a week, or two weeks, would be pretty remarkable considering Russian strength. (let alone 'winning' whatever that would mean. If Ukraine won the war it would be such a mind boggling humiliation Putin would be deposed and dead). It's been two days Ukraine is almost certainly still going to lose, but it seems like the KIA the Russians will take will be a lot higher than expected.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:35
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Taco Duck posted:Getting the impression the majority of Russian troops don't want to be there The Russians protesting in the street are calling this "the war with no cause". Lord knows what the average soldier thinks about it.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:35
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Ukraine talking big in the wake of surviving the night, saying they might be the ones dictating terms https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1497443132010606592?t=G088djU-5WoVMxY2ZFv4BA&s=19
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Feb 26, 2022 06:36
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Nazzadan posted:Independent of the actual conflict, these past 2 days have been home to some of the loving stone cold hardest statements known to man. Missed that one. Link?
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Feb 26, 2022 06:36
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Young Freud posted:Sounds like Putin was trying to pull another Georgia 2008: a short, quick, and decisive campaign that blitzkrieged forces to the capitol for them to capitulate and then retreat back to their new border. Thats exactly what he was trying to do. If you look at where the Russians have attempted to take he wanted the main cities, especially in the East so he could complete his land bring to Crimea. I think that Russian intelligence was fed bad info about Ukrainian forces and locations. You also have NATO likely feeding Ukrainian forces real time info on Russian movement. It's not going well for Putin. I do fear what he is going to do in the coming days as this campaign continues to go worse.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:37
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Sinteres posted:I think a lot of us can probably relate to that. Yeah but I didn't walk over to my neighbors house and declare it's mine now.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:37
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Sinteres posted:There wasn't a superpower feeding Iraq weapons and satellite info on US troop movements. Plus by 2003 Iraq had been under crippling sanctions and fairly regular bombing for over a decade. That said, I think the US would do better than Russia has so far at invading a country like Ukraine, but a big part of the difference in terms of casualty count would almost definitely be actually dominating the skies for an extended period of time and degrading enemy defenses before rushing in. I think the 'actually it's Russia's battle plan to sacrifice large numbers of lives' thing is a bit of a cope that plays into human wave attack bullshit, and they're legitimately facing stiffer resistance than they expected, or Putin made the generals push harder than they knew they should. Maybe Russia will clown on Ukraine over the next few days and we'll get casualty estimates substantially revised downward and it'll look better for them, but right now I don't think they're having a great time of it. Oh for sure. I absolutely understand the difference between the two, it is more of a... a difference of perspective, I guess? There hasn't really been a war between a major power and a minor one, in my lifetime, that didn't feel like a complete, one sided stomp. All the US invasions, the Russian work in Georgia, if a big power goes after someone I'm used to them just rolling over their army like it isn't even there only for things to go sideways once the occupation starts. Much as I love my Ukrainian cousins, I assumed that would be this, and if it were the US doing it I think you'd be more right than not. It just feels almost surreal to see a former superpower get so bloodied in open combat. I fully expected that holding Ukraine would be a nightmare, I didn't expect them to be shooting down Russian aircraft filled with soldiers. It really feels like Russia might be getting more than they bargained for if things are this bad, this soon. I still think they'll win, but the fact that I'm no longer 100% sure is surprising in and of itself.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:38
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Can anyone with photoshop skills replace the Taliban with the Russian army here? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 26, 2022 06:38
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Randarkman posted:The Russian communist party are huge fans of all three of those things. That’s the joke, those things are also what the tsar was for. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Feb 26, 2022 |
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Feb 26, 2022 06:39
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Caros posted:I fully expected that holding Ukraine would be a nightmare, I didn't expect them to be shooting down Russian aircraft filled with soldiers. It really feels like Russia might be getting more than they bargained for if things are this bad, this soon. I still think they'll win, but the fact that I'm no longer 100% sure is surprising in and of itself. Add to this the actual, measurable, oh-poo poo damage from the sanctions, and you may have a very real time limit that Russia can do this.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:39
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Djarum posted:It's not going well for Putin. I do fear what he is going to do in the coming days as this campaign continues to go worse. He's not making it look easy. He also looks like poo poo. Zelensky looks scared, tired, but brave and confident in the justice of his cause. Putin is angry and looks like he's tweaking out on KGB meth
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Feb 26, 2022 06:39
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I say if the war drags on over the summer, it's a failure. If it goes to the early Spring and the thaw things will basically be lost of Russia. They are well aware of the issues they will face then.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:39
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I say if the war drags on over the summer, it's a failure. Polish materiel used against the supply chain, and the cost of maintaining that chain under sanctions, is going to ensure a failure, I would think. How Putin will demonstrate his objections to Poland is kinda unpredictable and it seems to me that could be a worrisome issue.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:40
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Popete posted:Yeah but I didn't walk over to my neighbors house and declare it's mine now. Yeah well, you're not in charge of a massive military. (but also you probably weren't a narcissistic dickhole pre-COVID like Putin was, and tbf the vast majority of world leaders also are)
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Feb 26, 2022 06:40
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Despera posted:The Russians protesting in the street are calling this "the war with no cause". Lord knows what the average soldier thinks about it. https://twitter.com/infinite_scream/status/1497439596954591238 Except in Cyrillic.
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Feb 26, 2022 06:40
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tracecomplete posted:Add to this the actual, measurable, oh-poo poo damage from the sanctions, and you may have a very real time limit that Russia can do this. NPR was saying that Putin has been working to sanction-proof parts of the Russian economy. Details for anyone interested: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/25/1083051388/putins-big-bet-sanction-proofing-russia
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Feb 26, 2022 06:41
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Sekenr posted:Russia banned from Eurovision. at last, a sign of the end of the war
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Feb 26, 2022 06:42
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Interview with some of the volunteer home guard https://www.rfi.fr/en/kyiv-s-ragtag-volunteer-force-fights-stealth-invader The Article posted:"I've never served," Bitsman admitted. gently caress man
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Feb 26, 2022 06:42
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Does anyone know if Russia has an issue with munitions numbers the way that France did in the bombing campaign against Libya? France and Italy basically had to beg the United States to give them airborne munitions because their stockpiles started running out. Does anyone know if Russia has that same issue with some of their heavier weapons?
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