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FishBulbia posted:There's propaganda. It's a war. accurate reporting is not a priority so I don't think we should base any assessment on what one side is claiming to have done, unless they show us the receipts, so to speak. I agree mostly. I think the total Russian dead though, just from the damage I’ve seen to some Russian vehicle columns is probably accurate enough. Aka I am assuming Russia has lost over 2k soldiers KIA. How much more than that, and if it actually approaches that 4K+ number remains to be seen.
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Feb 27, 2022 13:56
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nurmie posted:iirc i heard rumors of a naval battle somewhere off the coast of Odessa - i believe russian MoD claimed to sink 6 ukrainian warships (most likely some kind of light gunboats/cutters, i don't think they had that large of a fleet to begin with) This is fair, and I don’t disagree (like I said), I was just curious about the claimed 2 ships as I hadn’t heard any details about said claim so far.
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Feb 27, 2022 13:59
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ZombieLenin posted:Good job, Putin! You sure weakened NATO. You weakened them so much Germany is now serious about rearmament and wants to enshrine its 2% spending requirement in its constitution. Third time lucky?
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Feb 27, 2022 14:00
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Dirt5o8 posted:Gonna caveat this by saying I am a student at a U.S. Military school that trains lower grade officers to be staff officers for battalions, brigades and higher. We're studying Russian and former Soviet-bloc formations and doctrine atm, so I'm still learning. Aren't BTG some sort of weird battalion battlegroup with a brigades worth of artillery and anti air? So 1 tank coy, 3 mot inf coy, 3 artillery battery's 1 aa battery or something like that? My take is the Russian army simply couldn't scale to 120ish BTGs, also hearing about conscripts from Dec 21 in the fighting. That is no time to train in anything but manual of arms, and basic drill. No squad, platoon, company level tactics, or combined arms or mout.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:02
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Comstar posted:This Russian remake of Kellys Heroes is getting out of hand. Tired: breaking into bank, spending hours to crack the safe to get an armload of hryvnia which gets you one bottle of vodka Wired: breaking into alcohol store to get an armload of vodka, then selling one bottle to the guys who broke into bank
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Feb 27, 2022 14:06
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Kelly’s heroes was a good movie. The racing to find an Ill-gotten treasure plot always pays good dividends
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Feb 27, 2022 14:08
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steinrokkan posted:So if true, this basically eliminates all Russian progress from the night, after Putin had declared that advances on all sectors in full force were ordered? Kind of. This was the only loud progress they made, but they’ve also been steadily closing in on Kyiv, so we’ll have to see.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:09
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Comstar posted:Two Russian T-80U tanks abandoned and found by Ukrainian civilians. Looks like they were trying to get a tow working when someone enabled ramming speed.  
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Feb 27, 2022 14:09
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ZombieLenin posted:I agree mostly. I think the total Russian dead though, just from the damage I’ve seen to some Russian vehicle columns is probably accurate enough. Confirmed vehicle loses (photo or video) Russia - 155, of which: destroyed: 68, damaged: 6, abandoned: 21, captured: 60 Ukraine - 98, of which: destroyed: 38, damaged: 4, abandoned: 35, captured: 19 https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
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Feb 27, 2022 14:10
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Dirt5o8 posted:Gonna caveat this by saying I am a student at a U.S. Military school that trains lower grade officers to be staff officers for battalions, brigades and higher. We're studying Russian and former Soviet-bloc formations and doctrine atm, so I'm still learning. The Ukrainian terrain is vastly different from Syria and Iraq. You’re seeing huge tanks columns essentially always on roads in huge lines. If they go off the roads, they’re getting stuck in snow and mud. And if a tank might just make it through, its wheeled fuel convoy is still stuck. There are impassable, thickly forested tree lines all over the place as well. They cannot fan out into a armored line upon contact. They basically are forcing themselves into ambush footing. It’s not… smart to keep throwing your own troops into this because it’s also a huge morale crusher when all you hear on comms are ambush after ambush. A fast capture was imperative to enable use of those roads. Now the Ukrainians have had time to set up ambushes where they can and destroy or block roads where they can’t. The Russians have clearly failed their plan A. However, it’s far too early to say what the invasion outcome is, except it has been slowed significantly, and the thawing season will not help with that, but the statistic advantage is… still there. How russia are strategically dealing with this failure seems to be continuing with brute force columns, and plodding along various fronts to see which is weakest. Over extending and getting ambushed again. We’re not seeing very much close in air support at all. Which was hugely important in the us iraq invasion. This is the most shocking part to me. It tells me the Ukrainians in fact do have stinger or otherwise air defense working in their favor, as these things have 3-5 miles range at about 10k ft, are quite deadly against those helicopters and su-25s which are the bulk of their air. I think this is also a large part why convoys are arriving into cities confused, alone, and seemingly without proper joint support, large masses of their convoys are getting caught up before making it to their rendezvous. All in addition to what you posted. Sorry for the armchair analysis I actually deeply hate posting. ethanol fucked around with this message at 14:15 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 14:11
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https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1497921707901956103 Cluster munitions are being used in Ukraine.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:12
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FishBulbia posted:Wow guys Russia won they apperently took the azov base. they can go home now because the war is over and ukraine has been liberated. im sure they'll be leaving now I did nazi that coming
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Feb 27, 2022 14:13
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Charlz Guybon posted:Confirmed vehicle loses (photo or video)
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Feb 27, 2022 14:14
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Charlz Guybon posted:Confirmed vehicle loses (photo or video) This guy is documenting it singlehandedly and has a huge backlock, so those numbers are old and will take time to catch up.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:14
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drunkill posted:This guy is documenting it singlehandedly and has a huge backlock, so those numbers are old and will take time to catch up. He's also some sort of Turkish nationalist who was getting real excited on twitter talking about dead Armenians during the war idk if that influences his analysis though
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Feb 27, 2022 14:16
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497923042101575685?s=20&t=8GIMmFC5-fhJfblFo3NA1w
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Feb 27, 2022 14:17
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ZombieLenin posted:Good job, Putin! You sure weakened NATO. You weakened them so much Germany is now serious about rearmament and wants to enshrine its 2% spending requirement in its constitution. Kyiv could fall today and Putin could declare victory and friendship with a nice new puppet, but the economic, political, and generational NATO-strengthening cost of this folly is almost incalculable.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:19
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vuk83 posted:Aren't BTG some sort of weird battalion battlegroup with a brigades worth of artillery and anti air? They are supposed to have Division Task Groups (DTG) that are 3-5 Brigade Task Groups (BTG). You're right that each BTG has 4 maneuver battalions (infantry and/or armor), 3 batteries of artillery, an AA battalion, a squadron of attack helicopters, and detachments of electronic warfare, UAV, support. Engineers are organic to the battalions. Battalions are NOT meant to complete complex operations by themselves. If they are detached they are referred to, by U.S. forces, as Battalion Detachments. This is why I'm getting super confused when reliable sources are calling BTGs Battalion Tactical Groups, as those don't technically exist. I could just be dumb though. And I totally agree with you that tactically, they are really undertrained as a whole. Like everyone is, rightly, pointing out, It is early and there are a lot more numbers on the Russian side but those numbers are very questionable when it comes to useful combat power, imo.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:19
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497923042101575685?s=20&t=8GIMmFC5-fhJfblFo3NA1w Cope and seethe, Putler. Keep being mad your little smash and grab didn't work as anticipated and many thousands of your soldiers, most of whom didn't even want to fight in this war, are now growing sunflowers on Ukrainian soil. Watch around you as you collapse your whole country's economy in aid of your mad dream. Even your people hate you now. Get hosed, and hopefully you go the way of Hitler the same way he did. 
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Feb 27, 2022 14:21
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497923042101575685?s=20&t=8GIMmFC5-fhJfblFo3NA1w time to escalate to deescalate baby! Bye!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ozb4_kytAI Man we really should have worked out world government after ww2 and to think it will happen due to some aging man, not a great clash of ideologies
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Feb 27, 2022 14:22
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:While Hungary now says they will support all sanctions against Russia, the Hungarian government owned media (say about 80%) is still pushing Russian propaganda on all channels. It can only go up, almost like Bitcoin.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:23
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ethanol posted:
I feel you on that. I only drag myself to hitting post very rarely. Dirt5o8 fucked around with this message at 14:26 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 14:23
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497923042101575685?s=20&t=8GIMmFC5-fhJfblFo3NA1w Let him posture all he wants, once again just by demonstrating how weak the Russian Armed Forces really is by his, whatever happens from now on, clearly failed invasion of the Ukraine, threatening nuclear war is all he has. Here is the thing, as Marcon pointed out, that does not really work when you’re threatening an alliance with 3 nuclear armed states; as you are just basically threatening to end Russia forever with the same breath. I am not saying nobody should worry about Russia’s nuclear arsenal, just that Putin’s constant reference to it just shows how weak he actually is.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:25
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Did anyone find out what that huge explosion that lit up the Kyiv skyline in the early morning of 2/27 was? It looked like it was a few km outside of the city on live cams and it looked terrifying, like the sun was rising, but in the middle of the night.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:26
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honneurifique posted:Did anyone find out what that huge explosion that lit up the Kyiv skyline in the early morning of 2/27 was? It looked like it was a few km outside of the city on live cams and it looked terrifying, like the sun was rising, but in the middle of the night. burning oil depot by the looks of it
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Feb 27, 2022 14:26
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from what we've been learning about the russian armed forces i think they might lose the battle to walk across a room and push a button too.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:26
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honneurifique posted:Did anyone find out what that huge explosion that lit up the Kyiv skyline in the early morning of 2/27 was? It looked like it was a few km outside of the city on live cams and it looked terrifying, like the sun was rising, but in the middle of the night. That would be an oil depot that's still on fire at the moment.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:27
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497923042101575685?s=20&t=8GIMmFC5-fhJfblFo3NA1w And here is our confirmation the chief of general staff wasn’t sacked. He’s right there.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:29
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Oh, that's what that was. Thanks for helping me connect the dots. Just what they need, a public health disaster from toxic fumes to add to their troubles.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:30
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honneurifique posted:Did anyone find out what that huge explosion that lit up the Kyiv skyline in the early morning of 2/27 was? It looked like it was a few km outside of the city on live cams and it looked terrifying, like the sun was rising, but in the middle of the night. Vasylki oil depot.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:31
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ethanol posted:The Ukrainian terrain is vastly different from Syria and Iraq. You’re seeing huge tanks columns essentially always on roads in huge lines. If they go off the roads, they’re getting stuck in snow and mud. And if a tank might just make it through, its wheeled fuel convoy is still stuck. There are impassable, thickly forested tree lines all over the place as well. They cannot fan out into a armored line upon contact. They basically are forcing themselves into ambush footing. It’s not… smart to keep throwing your own troops into this because it’s also a huge morale crusher when all you hear on comms are ambush after ambush. At this point, yes, Russian forces are sticking to the roads. This probably comes down to the decreased need for fuel/parts/support vehicles and much greater speed of advance - plus the reduced complexity for both the planners and troops. They'd need a much better logistics train and a much more permitting timetable at the very least if they chose to move this invasion offroad. Also notable that sticking to the roads is just flat out easier for poorly trained/less capable troops and commanders - right up until shooting starts at least. But the Ukrainian ambushes were there on day 1 - Ukrainian forces were pretty obviously waiting for them with a mix of ambushes and troops staying behind to hit convoys following the line of advance. The lack of close air support is also not too unexpected. RuAF poo poo the bed in Georgia, played no role in the first invasion of Ukraine, and in Syria conspicuously left close air support to the (on paper much less capable) Syrians while the RuAF bombed hospitals, water treatment, markets, public infrastructure, and neighborhoods with unguided munitions from high altitude above AAA/MANPADS range. The Russian aviators who did provide CAS in Syria were mostly in helicopters - which got shot down a bunch by said MANPADS and AAA. What's going on in Ukraine is pretty much more of the same. And while stingers may be floating around now, Ukraine already had stocks of reasonably good MANPADS - which are probably the bulk of what's been used up to this point. The situation is actually likely to dramatically improve materially with regards to MANPADS and anti-tank weapons as more modern equipment enters the country and becomes more widely available. The other half of the equation is that, unlike Syria, Ukraine also has a pretty respectable number of Buk and Tor air defense systems which appear to still be operating and absolutely can knock down planes flying above MANPADS range. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 14:31
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If Russian strategic nuclear forces are in the same state as their army and air force appears to be on twitter, we might actually survive this as a species.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:And here is our confirmation the chief of general staff wasn’t sacked. He’s right there. I'm not sure what her actual title was, but the early tweets were referencing a woman I think. s
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Feb 27, 2022 14:35
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ZombieLenin posted:Good job, Putin! You sure weakened NATO. You weakened them so much Germany is now serious about rearmament and wants to enshrine its 2% spending requirement in its constitution. When all other European states, who have been terrified of unified Germany since at least the last 150 years, start screaming at an unified Germany to get their army back online in an alliance against you you know you have achieved an amazing material and diplomatic victory that history will remember for millennia. E: do I need to add a [/sarcasm] tag there? Admittedly it's 2022, irony has been dead for years. Omobono fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 14:36
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ZombieLenin posted:Let him posture all he wants, once again just by demonstrating how weak the Russian Armed Forces really is by his, whatever happens from now on, clearly failed invasion of the Ukraine, threatening nuclear war is all he has. Yeah this is an act of weakness. Putin has to do something in response to sanctions but he's got literally no options in the diplomatic/economic space so it's straight back to a bit of sabre rattling. We really do hand-wring over sanctions and economic dependency with Russia too much in the West. It's clear when the chips are down that in this space we are the ones with escalation dominance and we should be using it more. e: another one: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/1497864108682715139 Greece has been traditionally very close culturally with Russia and on the dovish side of NATO, the tweeter is right this is decades of diplomacy gone to waste in a few days Alchenar fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 14:38
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Omobono posted:When all other European states, who has been terrified of unified Germany since at least the last 150 years, starts screaming at an unified Germany to get their army back online in an alliance against you you know you have achieved an amazing material and diplomatic victory that history will remember for millennia.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:40
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Randarkman posted:they have something around 200,000 and let's say around 120,000 or so of those are in combat units. I would hope not. If that's how they've divided their force it's pretty dire. For example, 75% of the American military is support troops. Lot's and LOT'S of study of wars from the beginning of time to modern time has shown that the most decisive factor in victory is logistics. He who can get there fastest with the mostest wins.
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Feb 27, 2022 14:40
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Warbadger posted:At this point, yes, Russian forces are sticking to the roads. This probably comes down to the decreased need for fuel/parts/support vehicles and much greater speed of advance - plus the reduced complexity for both the planners and troops. They'd need a much better logistics train and a much more permitting timetable at the very least if they chose to move this invasion offroad. But the Ukrainian ambushes were there on day 1 - Ukrainian forces were pretty obviously waiting for them with a mix of ambushes and troops staying behind to hit convoys following the line of advance. Oh yes, definitely.. they were there on day 1 most importantly, which is.. brave beyond words. I don’t think beforehand strategically many expected it be enough to block the roads from 4,000 tanks and all the support along with them. This will be studied for decades. And to your second point I definitely don’t know what the composition of their air defense is, but it seems to be working
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Feb 27, 2022 14:41
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How many more body bags till the military overthrows Putin, I wonder?
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Feb 27, 2022 14:44
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GABA ghoul posted:If Russian strategic nuclear forces are in the same state as their army and air force appears to be on twitter, we might actually survive this as a species. Too many missiles for that.
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