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go play outside Skyler posted:Well then that sounds good! 50 bucks to a Ukrainian relief charity if I'm wrong. Please DM me in case I forget I think nobody really cares about toxxes and if you have the spare money you can set aside for dumb poo poo/potential charity, then just send it.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:17
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Sinteres posted:It would be. Turkey has a treaty obligation to allow Russia access. You must have better sources than I do. https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/LON/Volume%20173/v173.pdf quote:Article 19. Rust Martialis fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 16:18
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550 Morning! What did I miss?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:18
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TulliusCicero posted:Was this the goon squad that the Chechynen atrocity guy billed as special forces, who were offering momey essentially for Ukranian scalps? They've been at least two now, the one with the high profile general that went for an airport earlier yesterday (and got destroyed) and this burned out column. Apparently the Chechens think the third time is the charm because there's another group coming in, with yet another high profile general in charge. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1497951410100527104?t=2gJodxhkYCp4uKrEEwvSQQ&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 16:18
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Willo567 posted:Putin is loving crazy though He is, but is he that crazy; and more importantly is the military that crazy that they will listen to a guy who orders them to possibly end Russia and the World because he's lost a war. I am reminded of how in May of 1945 what was left of the Wehrmacht just stopped listening to Hitler's crazy orders to try and 'relieve Berlin' and started to fight Westward to surrender to the Western Allies. KitConstantine posted:They've been at least two now, the one with the high profile general that went for an airport earlier yesterday (and got destroyed) and this burned out column. When was this taken? Didn't Ukraine report him killed? Or is this a different guy?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:19
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Isn't there a more tactical to move than just loving hitting it and all zoom down the road? Like, what's the Tier 1 Operator method?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:21
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Trump posted:Isn't there a more tactical to move than just loving hitting it and all zoom down the road? Main forces fight on roads and around them. The Tier 1 thing is covert insertions and small unit poo poo. Why would FSB Alpha dudes be leading conventional formations? Morale? Propaganda? I have no clue but this isn't how the Alpha is supposed to fight.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:22
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1497197197644816388?s=20&t=YAG8ji8u3oifNYamZl6_bA Got a little nervous when I read that the owners of a cat cafe are ‘making food with what they have’…
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Feb 27, 2022 16:23
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KitConstantine posted:They've been at least two now, the one with the high profile general that went for an airport earlier yesterday (and got destroyed) and this burned out column. Man the writers for this arc are getting lazy. ANOTHER jobber
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Feb 27, 2022 16:24
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Trump posted:Isn't there a more tactical to move than just loving hitting it and all zoom down the road? Despite everyone talking about how Ukraine has terrible terrain for defense the forests and tree line means the way to advance quickest is to just use the roads in a single file line. If the war lasts until spring thaw it will only get worse.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:25
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Vahakyla posted:Main forces fight on roads and around them. We've just seen so many images of these convoys blows the gently caress up, it seems like a dumb way to move.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:25
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https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497950426586501120 Translation: Warning! 🇷🇺 is preparing another war crime! Under the pretext of evacuation, they are trying to gather residents in buses in the temporarily occupied territories 🇷🇺 . However 🇷🇺 intend to throw buses with the population in columns with military equipment and under cover of civilians to move towards Kiev. Pretty hosed up if Russia actually start using Ukrainian hostages as shields.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:25
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Hiekkakauppias posted:Is there a way to follow Twitter threads without constant refreshing and prompts to sign in or register? What a piece of poo poo company I don't think this got answered but I'm using ublock origin with this filter I found that may or may not be russian spyware I don't know how computers work. twitter.com##div#layers div[data-testid="sheetDialog"]:upward(div[role="group"][tabindex="0"]) twitter.com##html:style(overflow: auto !important;)
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Feb 27, 2022 16:26
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ZombieLenin posted:
The video was posted to that twitter account an hour ago, and it's a different guy. The general reported dead yesterday was Magomed Tushaev.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:27
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Tomn posted:If Putin had decided that having his hand revealed was a good reason to call off the attack, he could have scored an easy diplomatic win on the cheap while looking like an aggrieved victim. He wouldn't have gotten Ukraine, but it would have been a pretty decent trade. He's done what every every autocrat with ambition eventually falls to: keep playing your card regardless of the potential consequences because nothing has set them back so far. Eventually, the anti-mattering field collapses and the autocrat takes everyone with them down to the Bad Times.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:29
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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1497953698252824584
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Feb 27, 2022 16:31
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MadJackal posted:He's done what every every autocrat with ambition eventually falls to: keep playing your card regardless of the potential consequences because nothing has set them back so far. The Mattering: Anti-Tank
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Feb 27, 2022 16:31
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The video starts a bit late but it looks like someone just overtook a lone Russian vehicle on the highway and lobbed some motlovs as it went by. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t2pxht/balls_of_steel_molotovs_on_the_highway/
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Feb 27, 2022 16:32
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https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497952720841584647
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Feb 27, 2022 16:33
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I think everyone (except maybe the crazy online tankies) can agree that Putin's actions are evil regardless of moral outlook or political philosophy. He is however not crazy/mentally ill/demented/etc or invading a country just because he has brain worms or something. Putin and Xi Jinping are if anything the two most strategically savy autocrats in the world, and Putin would objectively rank pretty high about the historical soviet dictators as well. It is 100% true that a western-oriented Ukraine is a huge threat to Russia, because Russia is an aggressive dictatorship that wants buffer states without functioning democracies between it and NATO (to the extent possible). If you're interested in Putin's military strategic perspective and the historical bakground with Ukraine this is a pretty good write-up by an actual scholar: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/. You could sum this up as Putin reinstating the Brezhnev Doctrine. Ukraine should absolutely be allowed to join NATO, both because it's an independent country and also because it has a huge aggressive dictatorship as a neighbour. I think it's important to recognize that Putin isn't literally a crazy man pulling levers and pushing buttons, he's a dictator trying to rebuild a fallen empire. It's a good thing that Putin is strategic and not actually insane, because that means there's a chance of making the cost/benefit of this invasion so high that the end result is something other than Ukraine as a client state.
Dante fucked around with this message at 16:38 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 16:36
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Yeah, that's the high alert bluff Putin's performing in the hopes of making us flinch, right?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:39
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Dante posted:I think everyone (except maybe the crazy online tankies) can agree that Putin's actions are evil regardless of moral outlook or political philosophy. He is however not crazy/mentally ill/demented/etc or invading a country just because he has brain worms or something. Putin and Xi Jinping are if anything the two most strategically savy autocrats in the world, and Putin would objectively rank pretty high about the historical soviet dictators as well. It is 100% that a western-oriented Ukraine is a huge threat to Russia, because Russia is an aggressive dictatorship that wants buffer states without functioning democracies between it and NATO as much as possible. If you're interested in Putin's military strategic perspective and the historical bakground with Ukraine this is a pretty good write-up by an actual scholar: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/. You could sum this up as Putin reinstating the Brezhnev Doctrine. Ukraine should absolutely be allowed to join NATO, both because it's an independent country and also because it has a huge aggressive dictatorship as a neighbour. I think it's important to recognize that Putin isn't literally a crazy man pulling levers and pushing buttons, he's a dictator trying to rebuild a fallen empire. It's a good thing that Putin is strategic and not actually insane, because that means there's a chance of making the cost/benefit of this invasion so high that the end result is something other than Ukraine as a client state. I think it's probably time to take him out of the savvy column. Russia had legitimate grievances before the war (as did Ukraine, of course), but at this point it's hard to see how the war didn't just make everything worse for Russia. He seems to have had a worse hand than he thought he had, and bet too much. Maybe this is premature and Russia's suddenly going to stop getting their tanks captured by Ukrainian forces in humiliating ways while the West strangles their economy, but as of today Putin looks like a bungler who's united much of the world in opposition to him, and it's hard to see what he can extract even from a successful conclusion to the war that could justify the cost.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:42
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Man, even if the invasion had gone relatively smoothly, Russia would have been shooting themselves in both feet diplomatically. NATO went from feeling a bit like a Cold War relic on the decline to an important and strong alliance, and Russia is pretty near to universally condemned. And with it going badly for Russia, there’s just no scenario where this really works out for them. Just the worst move possible.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:43
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So I have an honest question: The Russian latest objectives based on US intel is to seize either Karkhiv or Kyiv by Monday. What good is it to break into a city with tanks only to be hit from all sides and angles where the populace has a poo poo ton of anti tank rockets/ missiles? Like Kharkiv the Russians made it into the city and from reports got utterly overwhelmed once inside. It's a loving bee's nest of anti tank weaponry: there's no way in a million years you could seize that And yeah no declaring a war when your armed forces are not remotely ready and your only Casus Belli is "Greater Russia Bitch" puts you in the "firmly unhinged" column TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 16:44
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https://twitter.com/pokirae_/status/1497959869516759045?s=21 I just realized why Putin gave Monday as the deadline to capture Kyiv and Kharkiv
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Feb 27, 2022 16:44
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Sinteres posted:I think it's probably time to take him out of the savvy column. Russia had legitimate grievances before the war (as did Ukraine, of course), but at this point it's hard to see how the war didn't just make everything worse for Russia. He seems to have had a worse hand than he thought he had, and bet too much. Maybe this is premature and Russia's suddenly going to stop getting their tanks captured by Ukrainian forces in humiliating ways while the West strangles their economy, but as of today Putin looks like a bungler who's united much of the world in opposition to him, and it's hard to see what he can extract even from a successful conclusion to the war that could justify the cost. What are some of these "legitimate" grievances of Russia?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:46
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Very curious, and concerned, to see how Russia will try to take cities without destroying them. It seems like Russian leadership is aware that turning Kiev or Kharkiv into Sarajevo would be unacceptable to both domestic and foreign audiences. On the other hand, taking defended cities with unsupported infantry would seem to be incredibly expensive in manpower. Another issue with this is that Russia may not even have that option; while Russia enjoys numerical superiority they may simply not have enough of the troops with the relevant training to accomplish it. Ukraine for its part will have to weigh the immense human cost associated with urban warfare against Ukrainian democracy and freedom from Russian occupation and purges. Where would you draw the line if there is one?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:47
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The ruble is tanking https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1497959192933679105?t=HCP67wfgYwnQnvPXZt2MiA&s=19 And the Russians are picking up journalists https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1497958540811685891?t=9gaWK8y1uCFmDW73FHbMuw&s=19 Seems like Putin is getting nervous about the domestic situation
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Feb 27, 2022 16:48
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Dante posted:He is however not crazy/mentally ill/demented/etc or invading a country just because he has brain worms or something. Putin and Xi Jinping are if anything the two most strategically savy autocrats in the world, and Putin would objectively rank pretty high about the historical soviet dictators as well. Is this really the case, though? Like, even if Zelensky surrendered unconditionally right here and now for whatever reason, is Russia's position better off than it was before the war? Has he actually gained more than he lost? Is NATO more or less of a potential danger to Russia? Is Russia going to have a larger or smaller border with NATO states?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:49
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The Lord of Hats posted:Man, even if the invasion had gone relatively smoothly, Russia would have been shooting themselves in both feet diplomatically. NATO went from feeling a bit like a Cold War relic on the decline to an important and strong alliance, and Russia is pretty near to universally condemned. And with it going badly for Russia, there’s just no scenario where this really works out for them. Just the worst move possible. Like what we've gone from many countries questioning the point of NATO to Sweden and Finland making noises about joining ASAP and Germany announcing a major rearmament in four days? If Putin had just moved troops into occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk and gone "Mine now what you going to do about it you ain't getting it back ever" there probably would have been token sanctions but most of the world just accepting it as a fait accompli.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:49
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Sinteres posted:I think it's probably time to take him out of the savvy column. Russia had legitimate grievances before the war (as did Ukraine, of course), but at this point it's hard to see how the war didn't just make everything worse for Russia. He seems to have had a worse hand than he thought he had, and bet too much. Maybe this is premature and Russia's suddenly going to stop getting their tanks captured by Ukrainian forces in humiliating ways while the West strangles their economy, but as of today Putin looks like a bungler who's united much of the world in opposition to him. Yeah I think it's a fair to assume they thought this would be more like Georgia and less like the current situation. They clearly expected heavy sanctions and have prepared for that, but I doubt they expected the level of civil resistance or this level of military aid from the west. That said Russia is more than capable of militarily grinding Ukraine down, this is day 3. The primary worry for the Kremlin is probably not global opinion, but increasing domestic unrest/protests in Russia both due to anti-war attitudes and due to the economic impact of sanctions. The longer it takes the worse it's going to be for Putin. The options to increase the military pressure would probably result in a humanitarian catastrophe/severe war crimes and that would both be a domestic problem and cause pressure within NATO to act. It's not a great situation for Putin for sure. My main point is that he's not literally a crazy person blowing bubbles and invading countries for fun. Tomn posted:Is this really the case, though? Like, even if Zelensky surrendered unconditionally right here and now for whatever reason, is Russia's position better off than it was before the war? Has he actually gained more than he lost? Is NATO more or less of a potential danger to Russia? Is Russia going to have a larger or smaller border with NATO states? Dante fucked around with this message at 16:54 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 16:50
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ZombieLenin posted:He is, but is he that crazy; and more importantly is the military that crazy that they will listen to a guy who orders them to possibly end Russia and the World because he's lost a war. I am reminded of how in May of 1945 what was left of the Wehrmacht just stopped listening to Hitler's crazy orders to try and 'relieve Berlin' and started to fight Westward to surrender to the Western Allies. Different monster. Hopefully Ukraine gets a drone in the air again and tops him too.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:50
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KitConstantine posted:They've been at least two now, the one with the high profile general that went for an airport earlier yesterday (and got destroyed) and this burned out column. I mean, at what point do the anti-Kadyrov rebels in Chechnya see an opportunity to go after their own domestic madman?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:51
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Kalit posted:What are some of these "legitimate" grievances of Russia? I'm not supposed to talk about NATO expansion anymore here, so if you don't think Russia had legitimate grievances we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one part of a post you probably mostly agree with.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:52
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Like what we've gone from many countries questioning the point of NATO to Sweden and Finland making noises about joining ASAP and Germany announcing a major rearmament in four days? the closest analogy i can think of here is the us invasion of iraq. the blowback is severe and will be lasting for russia. this just seems like such an epic blunder, in no way is keeping ukraine out of nato worth the pain russia is currently enduring in blood and treasure. even if they completely achieve their goals, the ongoing sanctions will cripple the country. and now there is the ongoing humiliation of being unable to achieve their military objectives against a much smaller country to throw on top of that.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:54
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There are plenty of 'legitimate' grievences in geopolitics to which the answer is 'that's sad'.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:54
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Dante posted:The options to increase the military pressure would probably result in a humanitarian catastrophe/severe war crimes and that would both be a domestic problem and cause pressure within NATO to act. It's not a great situation for Putin for sure. My main point is that he's not literally a crazy person blowing bubbles and invading countries for fun. You're not wrong that Putin mostly has bad choices available now, but the thing is none of these choices needed to be presented to him in the first place if he'd made the initial choice "Not to invade the Ukraine (after saying he wouldn't)." Dante posted:Well the NATO border would be identical and Ukraine would be a client state, so yeah that would be a gain for Putin. I was thinking of Finland and Sweden looking to join up, as well as the Ukraine's own borders with with NATO states. I suppose you could consider Ukraine to act as a buffer, but is that worth all of NATO furiously rearming, including Germany, and acting with far greater hostility towards Russia? Edit: Dante posted:The Russian perspective on the west/NATO isn't tied to the level of defense spending. It's about how much does it hinder Russian power in the old USSR. Former soviet republics becoming democracies and choosing to realign away from Russia is something they're desperate to stop. But the thing is, this argument hinges on "Gaining power in the old SSRs" being a worthwhile goal in and of itself - if we accept that as something worth pursuing at all costs then yes, maybe one could argue Putin is acting rationally towards that goal. But IS it really worth the cost? Is becoming an international pariah state, tanking your economy, and committing your army to a long occupation for the sake of gaining influence over old countries your predecessor state used to control a rational decision in and of itself? Tomn fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 16:55
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surf rock posted:I mean, at what point do the anti-Kadyrov rebels in Chechnya see an opportunity to go after their own domestic madman? This brings up another good point: Russia has to periodically send in troops to crush opposition/ rebellions to provinces. ...What are those places doing right now? Especially with the economy in sheer collapse?
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Feb 27, 2022 16:56
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TulliusCicero posted:This brings up another good point: It's been three days.
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Feb 27, 2022 16:57
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Sinteres posted:I'm not supposed to talk about NATO expansion anymore here, so if you don't think Russia had legitimate grievances we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one part of a post you probably mostly agree with. It's not a "legitimate grievance" to be upset you can't subjugate all of your neighbors hth
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