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KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Speaking of asking for fuel

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1497975994015227907?t=Q4TEMBPwJ6gfaGR3LuHRGg&s=19

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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Vahakyla posted:

Imagine if a US soldier who makes 40,000 a year would suddenly make 400k, even just one year? After the war it's essentially another baby boom or a social class.

There's going to be some inflation in Ukraine starting about 4 days ago. I suspect it won't matter much in the long run.

Also pretty funny that the but EU Fund for Peace that nobody could work out how to spend eventually all goes towards supporting a war.

Sashimi
Dec 26, 2008


College Slice

Concerned Citizen posted:

No, it is definitely still true. One important aspect is that Ukraine must defend every axis of the attack to prevent a strategic collapse. They aren't. While Russian losses are mounting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, the situation in Mariupol is critical. The destruction of Ukrainian forces there, the best equipped and most experienced in their military, will leave the rest of the country effectively indefensible. What is true is that Russia may be forced into hard urban fighting in Kyiv and Kharkiv, which could take weeks or months to resolve. But Russia is a massive country that has chosen, perhaps due to a strategic miscalculation, to commit a relatively small portion of its force to this war. If they are determined to win, they can. It's only a question of what price they are willing to pay in order to do so.
I don't really agree with this, right now the most important area for a long term conflict seems to be around Lviv and the Polish border. That seems to be where supplies and people are best able to move into Ukraine.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004


I'm also owning Russians just off camera.

wetdela
Oct 13, 2012

I CAME BACK AFTER 2 YEARS OF SILENCE SO I COULD AGGRO POST IN THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA THREAD.

Sinteres posted:

Stupid to even respond to Russia's idiotic saber rattling imo.

Well, you’ve been right about everything else so we should probably listen to you this time.

Vahakyla
May 3, 2013

Sinteres posted:

Stupid to even respond to Russia's idiotic saber rattling imo.

hey op some of us would like to be prepped for your daddy's possible nuclear war

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1497976164505329669

This is very not great.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

wetdela posted:

Well, you’ve been right about everything else so we should probably listen to you this time.

Thanks, I agree.

Vahakyla posted:

hey op some of us would like to be prepped for your daddy's possible nuclear war

How exactly do you think you can meaningfully prepare for nuclear war?

OgNar
Oct 26, 2002

They tapdance not, neither do they fart
Just woke up but this is somewhat good news to get up to.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497972485253435398

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
Why are people so convinced Putin is going to launch a nuclear strike over loving Ukraine and sanctions?

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

It's the advance in the North East that's looking a bit grim. Hopefully the Ukrainians are deliberately giving ground (and the Russian advance is coming up against some water obstacles) but if it all goes wrong that's where it looks like it's going to go wrong.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497942225308864512/photo/1

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Great cameo for Mike from RLM.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Willo567 posted:

Why are people so convinced Putin is going to launch a nuclear strike over loving Ukraine and sanctions?

A lot of people seem to wank themselves into a coma over WW3 fantasies. It's not happening.

Hiro Protagonist
Oct 25, 2010

Last of the freelance hackers and
Greatest swordfighter in the world

Willo567 posted:

Why are people so convinced Putin is going to launch a nuclear strike over loving Ukraine and sanctions?

I mean, you cannot be sure, but still pretty loving nervous.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

Again, though, I think my issue here is that you seem to be taking Putin's worldview as its own justification - i.e., he believes it, therefore if he acts in accordance with it he's an intelligent, rational actor, and is intellectually justified in making the decisions he makes. My argument is that when weighing the leader of a state and their decision-making, one cannot view him through his own lens but must instead view him through the lens of the country at large. Does Russia truly benefit from such choices? Hell, even if we narrow it down and look at it through the lens of his personal dictatorship, does his rule benefit from such choices? I would argue that the answer is "Not really, and it's getting worse by the day."

Two points I want to note specifically, though:

Dante posted:

I do think Ukraine, being a culturally very influential in Russia, realigning towards the west and continuing its democratic path would be a very serious threat to Putin over time.

Ah, now, remember when I said I disagreed vehemently on your judgement of Xi Jinping? I'm Taiwanese, and I was living in Hong Kong when the last crackdown happened. As such, I can state that as far as I can see the continued existence of an independent democratic state of the same culture and ethnicity as the PRC (arguably multiple such, depending on how you view Hong Kong and Singapore) has done all of jack and poo poo to the overall desire of mainlanders to strive for democracy and overthrow the CCP. It's not nearly as much of a real threat to CCP rule as the internal consequences of its own decisions are (such as China's stalling economy and approaching demographic crisis). And on that note...

Dante posted:

I don't think there's any evidence that Putin's position in Russia is precarious from the losses sustained after 72 hours of war. Hopefully this invasion does destabilize the domestic situation enough that he feels compelled to seek a truce, but I think we're far from that yet.

I wasn't really referring to battlefield losses here so much as I was referring to the "nuke the economy" sanctions on the horizon, particularly the one about freezing bank assets. We've already had a few videos in here about how people having been lining up at ATMs to get their money out, and it's only going to get worse once the sanctions hit for real and the markets open. I don't know that Putin's necessarily going to end up out a balcony but "having to deal with massive hyperinflation and oligarchs freaking out over their wealth disappearing" doesn't exactly make for a steady throne to my mind.

nurmie
Dec 8, 2019

Sinteres posted:

Stupid to even respond to Russia's idiotic saber rattling imo.

fwiw i'm really hoping you're right, but something tells me this isn't sabre-rattling

jesus loving christ, if last week someone had posted a post predicting all of these events, i'd accuse them of clancy-posting. yet here we are :psyduck:

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

nurmie posted:

fwiw i'm really hoping you're right, but something tells me this isn't sabre-rattling

jesus loving christ, if last week someone had posted a post predicting all of these events, i'd accuse them of clancy-posting. yet here we are :psyduck:

If the US really thought Putin was inching toward considering nuclear options, the appropriate thing to do would be to de-escalate our involvement in the war, not to escalate our own nuclear preparedness. The US does not think Putin is inching toward considering nuclear options.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Willo567 posted:

Why are people so convinced Putin is going to launch a nuclear strike over loving Ukraine and sanctions?

No one worth listening to about the subject is convinced.

Vaginaface
Aug 26, 2013

HEY REI HEY REI,
do vaginaface!

Mods can we automatically change this string to "Exodia" or something less compromised tia

Man Plan Canal
Jul 11, 2000

Listen to the madman

This appears to be an NGO intelligence company that uses the term DEFCON for their proprietary Tom Clancy poo poo, nothing to do with the actual United States.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




Wasn't the Azov battalion's headquarters captured by the Russians?

Sounds like mission accomplished! They can go home now

Comstar
Apr 20, 2007

Are you happy now?

Willo567 posted:

Why are people so convinced Putin is going to launch a nuclear strike over loving Ukraine and sanctions?

What do you think Putin will do when he finds out that his own people want his head.


He’s not going to retire to some Dacha.

Raere
Dec 13, 2007


This is not the US DEFCON system.

quote:

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch.

piL
Sep 20, 2007
(__|\\\\)
Taco Defender

Sinteres posted:

How exactly do you think you can meaningfully prepare for nuclear war?

Be kind to people. Do the right thing. Hone selflessness and inner strength and try each day to be better than the last. This guy wrote a decent manual.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

I haven't been up to up to speed on the depth of Lukashenka's well of insanity but I'm getting there.

Here he talks about receiving additional arms "that will cause so much damage that neither Poles nor Lithuanians will want to fight with us".

Lithuanian perfidy is something else I'll have to get up to speed on.

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1497887250696310794?cxt=HHwWlMC4tZahyMkpAAAA

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527
these brainlets....... what the hell were they thinking

They are liberators. Here to kill Nazis, not extinguish UKR nationhood.

wins32767
Mar 16, 2007

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Overall this war seems to be indicating that the manpad and javelin and drone are doing to mechanized armor and close air support what the machine gun did to horse cavalry.

That's not really true. This is the first time since 1973 where roughly peer armies are fighting with modern weapons and like in 1973, it's proving that modern weapons are incredibly lethal across the board. The Yom Kippur war lasted 3 weeks and both sides were basically unable to fight by the end. The Arab forces lost over 2000 tanks, and the Israelis lost ~1000 (though they got most of the back into service eventually).

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
I'm a little concerned about Putin's mental stability ngl

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




TulliusCicero posted:

Wasn't the Azov battalion's headquarters captured by the Russians?

No, that was a painted bus stop people were mocking the photo op of.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527
these brainlets....... what the hell were they thinking

it has to be an intentional surrender

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
Belarus pinky promised not to send troops from Belarus
-Zelensky

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/747

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497983246776389637

ummel fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Feb 27, 2022

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021


Ukraine actually has a militant far right, much like every other european country. It also has problematic narratives around WW2 (much like every european country). A good way to make sure nationalist become stronger is loving invading their country though. There were plenty of far right polish nationalists in the 1930s too. Doesn't change a thing.

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


BP exits shareholding of Rosneft and two BP directors resigning from the board.
Not sure if it's more than symbolic.

Yureina
Apr 28, 2013

Yeap. I found this out recently. Really turns me off the Palestinian cause to find out they basically consist entirely of raging racists.
I just saw the bit about nukes getting prepared. What the actual gently caress? That shitbag really has lost his loving mind.

Other than that... how has it been for the last 10-ish hours? I hear that Kharkiv is holding out.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

I bet this wasn't so much an "escape" as he was broken out by Russian special forces.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

Ukraine's media game is so strong. And yet the contrast between these pictures still speaks to a very real truth.

https://twitter.com/kgorchinskaya/status/1497979262216900613


FishBulbia posted:

Ukraine actually has a militant far right, much like every other european country. It also has problematic narratives around WW2 (much like every european country). A good way to make sure nationalist become stronger is loving invading their country though. There were plenty of far right polish nationalists in the 1930s too. Doesn't change a thing.

Yeah once Ukraine doesn't have an existential threat invading and occupying it then it might find some time to deal with the militia groups.

DaysBefore
Jan 24, 2019


Yeah this is awful. It's a very real concern that this war will only empower these fascists. I guess it doesn't really matter how the current government responds because they're going to be replaced by Russian allies once this is over but it's terrible to see any sort of support for them.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Shes Not Impressed posted:

BP exits shareholding of Rosneft and two BP directors resigning from the board.
Not sure if it's more than symbolic.

Uhhhh this is pretty surprising

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1497982186649276421?t=sdxvAeXAUGfIZISGVlPTuQ&s=19

Edit: bullet points from the article:

bp will exit its 19.75% shareholding in Rosneft.

Both bp-nominated directors to resign from Rosneft board with immediate effect.

bp will no longer report reserves, production or profit for Rosneft.

Changes in accounting treatment of Rosneft shareholding expected to lead to a material non-cash charge.

bp’s financial frame and distribution guidance remains unchanged.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Vahakyla posted:

This is in the "insane" territory if it is true or holds up.


In american dollars, Ukrainian privates have made around 300 monthly, NCOs around 500, and officers 600 and up or so.
This payraise would be a tenfold payraise, making ukrainian soldies upper end of middle class, equivalent to making some 150k a year in the US.

They have the west just funneling money to them so why the gently caress not. If it extends to foreign nationals it’ll probably boost recruitment among sympathetic Eastern Europeans while demoralizing Russians who made ~$500 a year before the rubles slide.

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FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

TulliusCicero posted:

Wasn't the Azov battalion's headquarters captured by the Russians?

Sounds like mission accomplished! They can go home now

Turns out that was another battalion. Azov is fighting in Mariupol. I expect they'll drag out some of the poo poo they have if the Russian capture the city. That would be a propaganda win. Although question the reason why the invasion is continuing.

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