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Charliegrs posted:I bet this wasn't so much an "escape" as he was broken out by Russian special forces. He's still in kyiv. Christopher Miller spoke with him
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Feb 27, 2022 18:16
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FishBulbia posted:Ukraine actually has a militant far right, much like every other european country. It also has problematic narratives around WW2 (much like every european country). A good way to make sure nationalist become stronger is loving invading their country though. There were plenty of far right polish nationalists in the 1930s too. Doesn't change a thing. Yeah but maybe don't have the official national guard twitter account share messages about coating bullets in lard to shoot muslims?
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Feb 27, 2022 18:16
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527 Starting to think Russian soldiers are just pincushions in uniforms
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Feb 27, 2022 18:16
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Yureina posted:I just saw the bit about nukes getting prepared. What the actual gently caress? That shitbag really has lost his loving mind. They’re not prepared, at least not any more than normal. They’re at alert status 2/4 (and they raised to 2).
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Feb 27, 2022 18:17
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Zhanism posted:They are liberators. Here to kill Nazis, not extinguish UKR nationhood. love how theyre seated like theyre here for a traffic ticket lmao Excuse me sir, do you know why I pulled you over?
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Feb 27, 2022 18:17
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wins32767 posted:That's not really true. This is the first time since 1973 where roughly peer armies are fighting with modern weapons and like in 1973, it's proving that modern weapons are incredibly lethal across the board. The Yom Kippur war lasted 3 weeks and both sides were basically unable to fight by the end. The Arab forces lost over 2000 tanks, and the Israelis lost ~1000 (though they got most of the back into service eventually). While officially neutral in that conflict, the US pledged to replace all Israeli armor. However the Arabs lied about how much armor they destroyed, for propaganda purposes, so the US chose to use those as the official numbers We replaced more Israeli armor than actually existed in total.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:17
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He can "prepare" whatever he wants. He might have decided to end the world if he can't have an empire* but he can't personally push the button. *I don't think he thinks this, he's sabre rattling the only way he knows how
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Feb 27, 2022 18:17
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Dante posted:These are nominal non-PPP adjusted figures it looks like though. You need to take PPP-adjustments GDP measures to do international comparisons of economies. Updated with the same countries (+Canada, still without US) 
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Feb 27, 2022 18:17
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TheRat posted:Yeah but maybe don't have the official national guard twitter account share messages about coating bullets in lard to shoot muslims? Basically this DaysBefore posted:Yeah this is awful. It's a very real concern that this war will only empower these fascists. The war makes these groups way more popular. Turns out invading a country does not temper nationalist attitudes this is also the same MoD that posted DCS footage as confirmed kills so I think we should assume they're just retweeting stuff basically
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Feb 27, 2022 18:18
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the popes toes posted:I haven't been up to up to speed on the depth of Lukashenka's well of insanity but I'm getting there. Lithuania blocked his fertilizer shipments in January and he’s still mad about that. Belarus has two industries tractors and fertilizer.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:18
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527 I suppose that's one way to surrender with plausible(?) deniability.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:19
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Website looks sketchy and can't find any other media to confirm.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:19
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Yureina posted:I just saw the bit about nukes getting prepared. What the actual gently caress? That shitbag really has lost his loving mind. It’s propaganda - an actual increase of readiness levels from 1 to 2 on a 4 point scale. No one is shooting nukes.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:19
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Yureina posted:I just saw the bit about nukes getting prepared. What the actual gently caress? That shitbag really has lost his loving mind.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:19
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TheRat posted:Yeah but maybe don't have the official national guard twitter account share messages about coating bullets in lard to shoot muslims? Absolutely this post. It doesn't make you a C-Spam poster to honestly acknowledge the horrifying reality of the far-right in Ukraine. They're not running the place like Putin says but unlike what you might see in regular media they DO exist and they ARE an active political force.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:20
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Sorry if this has already been covered, but I don't think that's the actual US military DEFCON... DEFCON Warning System Website posted:"The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch."
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Feb 27, 2022 18:21
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coelomate posted:Website looks sketchy and can't find any other media to confirm. This prompted me to check, and DEFCON levels don't appear to be public information at all. Grouchio, please.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:21
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497977244324614151?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg Ukraine has been letting captured soldiers to phone home and showing the footage, which is a loving excellent way to destroy morale.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:21
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497945813330411527 That's exactly the kind of humour I know from Russian acquaintances tbh. You're stuck in hostile territory and you've run out fuel. If you're going to surrender, do it with a fatalistic joke.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:21
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I suggested earlier that the campaign (in the form of what has been suggested on its planning - i.e. that Moscow expected to roll into Kyiv within two days tops to acclaim some handpicked puppet) reflects what the Russian government thinks how Western-backed colour revolutions work, namely: - a slow campaign of promoting alternative politicians ('dissidents') whilst undermining faith in establishment institutions - when that loss in public trust is sufficiently high, or an opportunity or scandal strikes, suddenly undertake covert actions to spark disorder and panic; such actions may be undertaken by special forces or local partners depending on one's degree of paranoia - during the resulting fog of war of mass protest and urban disorder, engage in rapid kinetic actions to knock out hard-line government establishment supporters and establish the physical presence of the alternative government, in particular control of broadcasting stations, police posts, and government houses. Any talks or negotiations at this time are distractions; the key is re-establishing physical control under new management. Any beatings, killings, etc. undertaken during this time will be ignored afterwards. - restore order and present the new government and its new stakeholders as a fait accompli MikeC is not wrong, I think, to describe this worldview as not regarding mass protest movements or even electoral outcomes as legitimate or reflective anything more than the reproduction of power structures. Cause chaos, change that power, and society is changed from within. Key evidence for this perspective is that public opinion sounding boards or surveys may not detect any public dissatisfaction that would justify a wholesale change in government beforehand - indeed it might not be anything the dissidents are publicly calling for - and yet it becomes inevitable afterwards (the famous slide from reform to revolution in 1980s Eastern Europe - it is assumed that people don't revise their opinions as a urban protest movement itself reveals new things about "what other people believe" or "who potential allies and coalitions might be") In this view the campaign is stalled solely due to mis-execution of step #3: the Kyiv government is not decapitated but has instead cannily rallied to assert authority by leveraging Western military aid, training, and intelligence. Any impacts of the new all-time unpopularity of Moscow in a country of 40m may be discounted: since public views are just reflective of power, change that power and the views will change; aren't Chechens now reliable too? &c. If this analysis is correct, Russia would continue to try covert sabotage and targeted operations with a less ambitious timetable, rather than simply levelling whole cities with heavy artillery: its hope remains that it can still achieve its objectives in Ukraine. I think.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:21
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Man Plan Canal posted:This appears to be an NGO intelligence company that uses the term DEFCON for their proprietary Tom Clancy poo poo, nothing to do with the actual United States.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:21
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497984772920029191?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg Confirmation
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Feb 27, 2022 18:22
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This prompted me to check, and DEFCON levels don't appear to be public information at all. Grouchio, please.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:22
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With respect to Putin's mental health, I work with Russian journalists (I won't say how or where, for my privacy and for theirs) and I can say that there has been a notable shift in how they've started talking about Putin over the last couple of weeks. I've gotten a lot of comments - based on his words and actions in the lead up to the war - to the effect that he has lost touch with reality, that his rhetoric has become unhinged, and that they're having trouble scrutinising what his ultimate goals are. They've always known him as a cruel and ruthless dictator, of course, but I've never heard them talk about him as a pathological case until the past week. They say this with a sense of despair, by the way, not in the dismissive way that we normally denigrate our political opponents as "crazy". My own read is that he hasn't gone "crazy", per se, but rather that he's entered that stage of absolute power that all dictators ultimately reach where he is surrounded by nothing but hand-picked yes-men, and where he lacks any real possibility of being confronted with facts that might challenge his own views about how he would like the world to be. Now matter how pragmatic or savvy you might be, it's difficult to make rational decisions under those kind of conditions. As to whether he has been a politically savvy operator prior to the last couple of weeks, I don't think he's ever been the 4D geopolitical chess player that a lot of his own propaganda makes him out to be. His goals and methods have been largely indistinguishable from any other totalitarian dictator: set up a clientelistic economy where the support of the elite is secured in exchange for a wealth of privileges, and use that base of power to brutally suppress internal opposition. He has managed his image well within the country, and doubtless has a lot of genuine support among rank-and-file Russians, but there's been nothing clever or subtle about how he's managed to cling to power for the last 22 years. He's also been helped by the fact that most Russians have traumatic memories of the brief democratic interlude in the 1990s, and are therefore more likely to tolerate totalitarian politics to the extent it is seen as keeping the nation's head above water. With respect to foreign policy, I'll ignore the NATO debate and whether he has "legitimate grievances", but again I don't see anything particularly savvy or nuanced about his geopolitical worldview. His goal may or may not be to reinstate a quasi-imperial Russian hegemony over the region, but I think most of his actions can be viewed more accurately as attempts to prop up his own political power. Once more, there is nothing clever or subtle about how he achieves this. He uses the threat of military intervention liberally, of course, but his primary foreign policy tool is to lend material support to dictatorships in neighbouring countries (all of the dictatorships in central Asia, for example, owe their power and control over society to the backing of Putin) because 1) it obviously makes it easier for him to dictate terms to other nations when they are little more than client states, and 2) because it prevents his own people from getting any ideas. If he is surrounded by corrupt dictatorships, then it makes it much easier to justify his own dictatorship than it would be if Russian people were to see neighbouring states flourishing by virtue of free institutions and deeper ties with the western hemisphere. He isn't scared of Ukraine joining NATO because he sees his nation as being under any direct military threat (the 2014 intervention was motivated by Ukraine seeking deeper ties with the EU, not with NATO) but because any voluntary movement of Ukraine away from Russian control would undermine his own authority at home. If the behaviour of any political actor can be explained by reference to simple selfishness or by instincts for self-preservation, then I don't think it's necessary to appeal to more abstract principles like "Tsarism" or "spheres of influence" to explain what they're doing.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:22
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497981284462653443
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Feb 27, 2022 18:23
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Grouchio posted:Really? Then how would I know what defcon level were at? You won't until the Pentagon wants you to know.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:23
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Grouchio posted:I'm so sorry! I legit thought that was the official defcon site since 2017! Why would there be an official defcon site? E: Err, it was Keita TheRat fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 18:24
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happyhippy posted:Ukraine has been letting captured soldiers to phone home and showing the footage, which is a loving excellent way to destroy morale. Isn't this explicitly a violation of the geneva convention on treatment of prisoners of war?
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Feb 27, 2022 18:24
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Does BP selling its share in Rosneft actually... hurt Russia, in some way?
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Feb 27, 2022 18:25
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I feel like I need to ask someone smarter and less anxious than me, what measures are in place to make sure a paranoid Putin or a communication breakage or something doesn't cause an accidental first strike by a Russia that thinks it's being attacked? What would be the first target? Would they just send them all at the US, because we have the biggest arsenal? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 27, 2022 18:25
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Hiro Protagonist posted:I feel like I need to ask someone smarter and less anxious than me, what measures are in place to make sure a paranoid Putin or a communication breakage or something doesn't cause an accidental first strike by a Russia that thinks it's being attacked? What would be the first target? Would they just send them all at the US, because we have the biggest arsenal? main character syndrome from hiro protagonist
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Feb 27, 2022 18:27
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497984772920029191?s=20&t=v1BD0KK983D7uuZ9TTXMrg Pre-emptive before Putin nationalizes everything I should think. You don't want to be at the back of the sell line tomorrow.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:27
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 I'd like to remind everyone that WW3 Clancychat is not permitted.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:27
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TheRat posted:Isn't this explicitly a violation of the geneva convention on treatment of prisoners of war? What letting them call their moms that they aren dead?
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Feb 27, 2022 18:27
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TheRat posted:https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1497976164505329669 Combine this with the treatment of Africans trying to get on trains, and things aren't looking so great.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:28
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Zhanism posted:What letting them call their moms that they aren dead? Sharing videos of prisoners of war is a war crime, as I recall it.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:28
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Zhanism posted:What letting them call their moms that they aren dead? Sharing footage of it
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Feb 27, 2022 18:29
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https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1497982746123247623
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Feb 27, 2022 18:29
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I want EU countries to now start sending like 5001 helmets, then 5002 helmets, then 5003, and so on.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:30
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ummel posted:Belarus pinky promised not to send troops from Belarus Assuming the info about where the missile came from is accurate, what the hell's the point? Why bother? What incredibly critical military target is worth wiping your rear end with peace talks before they've even begun in full view of the world? Almost tempted to wonder if this was accurately identified just because it seems so pointless but there's a lot about this war that seems bloody pointless so idk
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Feb 27, 2022 18:31
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