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Sounds like news of the actual situation is getting some penatration in Russia, at least in media circles. https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1497677156301905920?t=YByVXfGaov0ZQzcrk91deQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1497677162261860354?t=8DuNX_EULRHfu-P0BhLOrQ&s=19
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Feb 27, 2022 18:49
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What the gently caress am I posting E: Sorry I have no idea what happened, I was trying to edit a post in a different thread on a different forum
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Feb 27, 2022 18:49
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Man you know you hosed up when you make BP look like the good guys.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:49
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Kalit posted:Not a loophole/involvement from the US government, just ex-military private citizens who are traveling to Ukraine to play hero It was a joke.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:49
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Owling Howl posted:Question is if Ukraine will have the time to use all this gear. Certainly wouldn't want to drive or fly anything with a Russian flag anywhere near Lviv though. Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it, when the need involves being assaulted by armoured vehicles.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:50
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zone posted:
that they'd rather sit things out than die over some bullshit?
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Feb 27, 2022 18:50
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the popes toes posted:https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1497954962915082247 Imagine Putin trying to pitch this to the ultra-mega-wealthy of Russia, and you can see how this could get sticky for him. In the meantime, I'm glad Amnesty is calling them out for this: https://twitter.com/OPokalchuk/status/1497967491687010308
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Feb 27, 2022 18:51
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Dante posted:Prisoners of war can not waive any parts of their rights under the Geneva convention, for very obvious reasons like the scenario you just described. That's article 7. Lots of weird posting going on here. Oops, you are very right.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:52
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Captain Stalin posted:Honest question, what's going right for Russia right now? They are rubbelizing Ucraine, sending it back 10 years in terms of infrastructure. They are setting up new contested areas they can use in the future. They made critical advances to the Dniepr river securing the channel that sends water to Crimeea.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:52
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Crespolini posted:that they'd rather sit things out than die over some bullshit? Yeah, I don't like thinkin that all russians are somehow just really stupid. I bet these dudes wanted to do their "due diligence" and surrender after going "welp tried everything I could" and ask the Ukrainian cops if they have coffee and food.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:52
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Majorian posted:Imagine Putin trying to pitch this to the ultra-mega-wealthy of Russia, and you can see how this could get sticky for him. All due respect, but that's a statement that anyone could do. Besides, Amnesty International has been nothing but a small force and are largely irrelevant.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:53
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Brain65 posted:They are rubbelizing Ucraine, sending it back 10 years in terms of infrastructure. They are setting up new contested areas they can use in the future. They made critical advances to the Dniepr river securing the channel that sends water to Crimeea. Ukraine is not getting torn into rubble, and Russians do not hold any significant city.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:53
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This is a private organization, not the government. I don't think there has been a public increase since 9/11.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:54
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"Won't the Ukrainians please think of the Geneva Convention" I cry, as the Russians throw missiles into apartment buildings.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:54
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Red posted:https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1497924876480483333 I'd say they need a redesign of that APC
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Feb 27, 2022 18:55
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Majorian posted:Imagine Putin trying to pitch this to the ultra-mega-wealthy of Russia, and you can see how this could get sticky for him. Well Solovyov is among the sanctioned oligarchs so his comments about rebuilding from scratch, I hope, are very personal.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:56
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Kalit posted:Not a loophole/involvement from the US government, just ex-military private citizens who are traveling to Ukraine to play hero This thing is going to spiral into the new Spanish Civil War Just lines of people squaring up to punch Putin in the dick
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Feb 27, 2022 18:56
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Vahakyla posted:Ukraine is not getting torn into rubble, and Russians do not hold any significant city. Ukraine is a vey poor country, and even moderate damage is going to have heavy toll. That's if they don't start hitting vital infrastructure (power plants etc) harder than they've already have. They've already bombed airports, military depots, power plants... THe highway system is probably going to be in tatters from all the fighting, tracked vehicle traffic, burning convoys, bridges torn down to stop the attackers. There are also proven to be minefields.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:57
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KitConstantine posted:Sounds like news of the actual situation is getting some penatration in Russia, at least in media circles. I'd take that with grain of salt because 1) Gaaze royally hosed up his insider cred by ridiculing the thought of invasion for the past month, along with most ~smart~ explainers who, unlike him, just scroll twitter all day 2) People telling him stuff (and, undoubtely, there are people) just lie and prepare for the future when they can rebrand themselves as just following orders. The line is exactly "everyone in state business (i.e. biggest banks, oil/gas/metals) and everyone in Duma was only informed of the invasion late Wednesday night". It aligns though with how the media support plan for the invasion and the casus belli are non-existent and weren't prepared. The line about no one to oversee the occupation rings true - Kremlin lost most of support in Ukraine because they decided sponsoring bums with AKs was more worth it than buying politicians there.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:57
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ZombieLenin posted:Well there are two schools of thought on this. One is: if you back down because he’s convinced you he will use nuclear weapons, you will never be able to stand up to him again, because you will have taught him he can nuclear blackmail anything he wants. I don't think we're at a point where Putin's making any credible threats in the first place, so this is kind of moot, but if he did start making those sorts of threats and saying in specific terms that he's not going to allow us to destroy his economy, or that blatantly funneling weapons through NATO land borders to a country he's invading is putting us on the brink of conflict, whether the threat works or not, I think that's categorically different from Russia using the threat of nuclear war to demand NATO withdrawal from Poland or something. Like the first two could be viewed as defensive threats attempting to restore the status quo relations between the nuclear powers (yes, even as Russia is engaged in an offensive war), while the latter would be offensive and an attempt to upset the status quo between the nuclear powers. I think even some people in this thread who are pretty unsympathetic to Russia have expressed amazement at how brazenly we're sending weapons across the border, and how it makes us a party to the war in a sense, so I don't think accepting that interpretation as valid and toning it down for the same reasons we didn't send troops in Ukraine's defense in the first place would entail a sweeping new understanding of the concept of nuclear blackmail, but rather would be a pushback at us testing the boundaries of what level of conflict falls below an escalation threshold. If Russia really does get exposed as a conventional paper tiger, they'll only have more reason to rely on their nuclear deterrent to try to re-establish some amount of credibility. But like I said, I don't think we're at a critical moment there yet.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:58
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steinrokkan posted:Ukraine is a vey poor country, and even moderate damage is going to have heavy toll. That's if they don't start hitting vital infrastructure (power plants etc) harder than they've already have. They've already bombed airports, military depots, power plants... Factories as well.
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Feb 27, 2022 18:58
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Polish border update: all crossings in Poland are absolutely full of all kinds of support and material. At this point, going there can actually be counter-productive, as the local road infrastructure is poor and unable to support so much traffic. Right now the help needed is more systematic and long term in nature. There are tens of thousands of hotel rooms and apartments available and the challenge lies in distributing them across the country. In the coming weeks, the challenge will be twofold - to move these people forward to where they’re going in Europe and to set up a long-term support framework. Having said that, if this war heats up all that I’m talking about will go out the window. If they throw the border open, no amount of government support will be able to handle it and the role of volunteers will rise.  If you’re outside of the EU and want to help, please support the Ukraine government and Ukrainian charities directly. If you’re in the EU and particularly in EE, please think locally - Facebook is currently the best source for information and coordination of charity and emigrant housing.There’s a nice infodump on charities in the charity thread. Mokotow fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Feb 27, 2022 |
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Feb 27, 2022 18:59
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TearsOfPirates posted:All due respect, but that's a statement that anyone could do. Maybe, but I'm glad that they are letting the Russians know that, if they start using, for example, chemical or biological warfare, the world will know about it.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:00
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sexy tiger boobs posted:"Won't the Ukrainians please think of the Geneva Convention" I cry, as the Russians throw missiles into apartment buildings. I dont know about you but I personally find it preferable if the side I root for dont do war crimes either.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:00
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sexy tiger boobs posted:"Won't the Ukrainians please think of the Geneva Convention" I cry, as the Russians throw missiles into apartment buildings.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:01
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Everything Tom Hanks worked for is in tatters: FedEx and UPS suspended service in Russia.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:01
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Vahakyla posted:Ukraine is not getting torn into rubble, and Russians do not hold any significant city. Every city is significant, even if its just to the people who live there.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:01
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sexy tiger boobs posted:"Won't the Ukrainians please think of the Geneva Convention" I cry, as the Russians throw missiles into apartment buildings. As far as war crimes go broadcasting a PoW calling mom is not that bad, but it is important to call out obvious violations even from our side. (Putin should be dragged in front of a tribunal and hanged for his warcrimes but eh, I'll file it under "what to wish on an infinite wishes no monkey-paw fulfillment lamp")
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Feb 27, 2022 19:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That was a Kremlin propagandist next to a painted bus stop. Russian forces are yet to breach Mariupol’, where the battalion is headquartered normally. Sorry about that, amended my post accordingly, i had wondered why the Trident was showing when their symbol is extremely different. 
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Feb 27, 2022 19:02
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Brain65 posted:They are rubbelizing Ucraine, sending it back 10 years in terms of infrastructure. They are setting up new contested areas they can use in the future. They made critical advances to the Dniepr river securing the channel that sends water to Crimeea. They definitely seem more interested in consolidating border regions in the south & east than they are in pushing forward to achieve any dramatic encirclement. I think it's a safe bet that they are trying to position themselves to stake claims there even if they fail to take Kyiv.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:02
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sexy tiger boobs posted:"Won't the Ukrainians please think of the Geneva Convention" I cry, as the Russians throw missiles into apartment buildings. You know you don't have to choose here, right?
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Feb 27, 2022 19:02
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sexy tiger boobs posted:"Won't the Ukrainians please think of the Geneva Convention" I cry, as the Russians throw missiles into apartment buildings. Do you think Russians wanna surrender if they know they'll get treated bad? Do you think Ukraine stays as the "legit good guy" in world's view? HOWEVER, i do think that shitposting prisoner interviews for social media is a difficult topic for Geneva Conventions that didn't necessarily see this information era. It's not that it is necessarily right, but the society even in war is so terminally online that it is kind of hard to prevent that. The POWs aren't paraded at the capitol in huge columns for propaganda reels which is what the original convention probably alluded. Yes, we shouldn't film then anyway right now, but it isn't necessarily the absolute disregard for laws of war that allows it, but more of a side effect of being terminally online. Right now it seems the major points of laws of war are abided by both sides, with Russians not blapping civilians on the reg, and Ukrainians treating prisoners well. And that probably only encourages more and more surrenders.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:03
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JerikTelorian posted:This is a private organization, not the government. I don't think there has been a public increase since 9/11. I think DEFCON is mostly inflated by the media? If this concept does exist in the real US military, I am guessing it would be classified and we would never know publically, aside from statements about readiness made by professional spokespeople or propaganda folks, or actual leaks.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:03
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steinrokkan posted:Ukraine is a vey poor country, and even moderate damage is going to have heavy toll. That's if they don't start hitting vital infrastructure (power plants etc) harder than they've already have. They've already bombed airports, military depots, power plants... THe highway system is probably going to be in tatters from all the fighting, tracked vehicle traffic, burning convoys, bridges torn down to stop the attackers. There are also proven to be minefields. I assume Ukraine would be in a position to avail of the aid and support of all the nations currently falling over themselves to send them billions in free military hardware, financial and operational support.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:03
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Loophole to get American boots on the ground lol 10 whole guys, huh?
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Feb 27, 2022 19:04
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Sinteres posted:I don't think we're at a point where Putin's making any credible threats in the first place, so this is kind of moot, but if he did start making those sorts of threats and saying in specific terms that he's not going to allow us to destroy his economy, or that blatantly funneling weapons through NATO land borders to a country he's invading is putting us on the brink of conflict, whether the threat works or not, I think that's categorically different from Russia using the threat of nuclear war to demand NATO withdrawal from Poland or something. Like the first two could be viewed as defensive threats attempting to restore the status quo relations between the nuclear powers (yes, even as Russia is engaged in an offensive war), while the latter would be offensive and an attempt to upset the status quo between the nuclear powers. I think even some people in this thread who are pretty unsympathetic to Russia have expressed amazement at how brazenly we're sending weapons across the border, and how it makes us a party to the war in a sense, so I don't think accepting that interpretation as valid and toning it down for the same reasons we didn't send troops in Ukraine's defense in the first place would entail a sweeping new understanding of the concept of nuclear blackmail, but rather would be a pushback at us testing the boundaries of what level of conflict falls below an escalation threshold. If Russia really does get exposed as a conventional paper tiger, they'll only have more reason to rely on their nuclear deterrent to try to re-establish some amount of credibility. But like I said, I don't think we're at a critical moment there yet. Honestly, and I acknowledge this is fatalistic, the time for letting Putin dictate the terms of engagement and negotiation is over. Whether appeasement was ever appropriate, that time is past. There shouldn't be any western troops or armor in Ukraine, but if other countries want to "donate" some equipment to another sovereign state, there ain't nothing that Putin gets to say about it. Let him deploy nukes and see where that gets him.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:04
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Calibanibal posted:Every city is significant, even if its just to the people who live there. You know what he means, don't be willfully dense.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:05
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Tuna-Fish posted:Ukraine alone could never do this, because what would they equip them with? But suddenly there is an answer to that question. That would only matter if Ukraine can maintain organized staging and training areas long enough to get people up to speed while still having access to the population and potential recruits, wouldn't it? I don't know how long it takes to get "fresh volunteer" up to "can stand toe to toe with regulars" level but does Ukraine have that kind of time? I mean, hell, we were talking about some of the Soviet conscripts looking badly undertrained and those guys were recruited in December. Maybe it doesn't take as long to train them up into effective insurgents but I still dunno if talking about the total available military age population is super useful given how fast things are moving.
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Feb 27, 2022 19:05
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Inner Light posted:I think DEFCON is mostly inflated by the media? If this concept does exist in the real US military, I am guessing it would be classified and we would never know publically, aside from statements about readiness made by professional spokespeople or propaganda folks, or actual leaks. Yeah, my old job touched on this. DEFCON readiness is classified.
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https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497989278797864966 1) can't afford to gamble it in Ukraine and potentially lose it, even if the probability is low? Its presence there has relied on the rest of Russia's myriad interests being quiescent to begin with. 2) genuine belief in the capability of targeted strikes, as I suggested earlier, with the awesome forces arrayed mainly for intimidation effect (sense of inevitability of defeat) rather than any actual intent to use, incl logistical arrangements? 3) institutional incapability a la this thread? i.e., the general staff promising Putin options that can't be delivered on https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1497498201527521281 4) Putin be crazy, micromanaging from the top, who knows? 5) Other theories?
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