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KitConstantine posted:They're already starting to come out on twitter and, "worst man in the world makes a good point"-style, he's unfortunately right. It's ugly. It's wild that he has also confirmed that Russia possess invisible Il-76s
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Feb 28, 2022 16:17
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I think I'm just gonna go offline for the next 24-48 hours or so. Been doomscrolling almost non-stop since Thursday and it's not doing me (or anyone else) any good. What's happening now would've been unthinkable to me even a week ago. It's a disaster. Not just for the Ukrainians, not just for the Russians - it's gonna have some very bad consequences for the entire world going forward, I think. I really, really hope I'm wrong.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:17
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Ciprian Maricon posted:That's not a strategy, that dude may be underestimating the resolve of the Ukranian people but "not giving up" isn't a strategy, the same way "don't lose the war" on a piece of paper do not constitute a strategy for national defense. it is absolutely a strategy, though i'm boiling it down some there are two basic ways to respond to an invasion. first, you try to win "on the battlefield", and once you've lost to surrender and cut your losses. this is basically what happened in the previous russian invasions. second, you refuse to surrender and try to inflict attrition enough that they give up and go home eventually. this means your cities, citizens, etc will suffer greatly, but you (and, most importantly, they, believe it to be worth it). he is assuming that zelensky will pick option 1 once the ukraine army gets beaten in the field, when he is instead making every effort (including putting himself at personal risk) to set up option 2. if kyiv and the other cities currently besieged fall, ukraine will try to fall back to the west and continue to fight while getting resupplied from there. the blogger is sort of assuming that once kyiv falls the west falls automatically. that would be a sensible assumption if the ukraine strategy was more banking on option one, but it doesn't make sense when they're banking on option two.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:18
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Ciprian Maricon posted:Because the exact same could be said of the tweet being critiqued, "Not Giving Up" can certainly be a short-hand for a strategy that Ukraine intends to implement, but similarly "encircle the capital and have them surrender instantly" may not be a holistic and completely accurate description of the Russian Army's objectives and strategic plan. Then stop reading about military strategy on Twitter for both sides in this conflict? It's not actually lifting a fog of war but stirring it around even more. Nobody in this thread or outside of military intelligence knows what is going on on the ground in the moment.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:18
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Hungary just announced that they wont let any weapons sent to Ukraine go through Hungary. Once again claiming this is for the safety of ethnic Hungarians living in Ukraine. 
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Feb 28, 2022 16:18
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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498304904800182276 The Russians are resorting to Plan B which seems to be their previous Chechnya/Syria playbook of just leveling cities methodically. Unrestrained Grad rocket attacks on heavily populated city centers is going to be horrific. *edit* Oh I got a new gangtag looks like I pissed someone off in CSPAM
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Feb 28, 2022 16:18
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I thought this was already happening tbh: https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498314321138491392?t=gstSnQNYgPARnxJyZEHTVg&s=19
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Feb 28, 2022 16:19
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coelomate posted:https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1498304904800182276 i mean, videos and images are already out there. they're using unguided missiles and bombs. large amounts of civilian losses are inevitable.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:19
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fatherboxx posted:Long insurgency (which is guaranteed with massive arms shipments through Polish border) on top of economy in freefall is a nightmare scenario so I dont think map painting would make anyone in Russian command happy. also it sounds like bad shits happening in Kharkiv war crimes wise.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:20
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nurmie posted:I think I'm just gonna go offline for the next 24-48 hours or so. Been doomscrolling almost non-stop since Thursday and it's not doing me (or anyone else) any good. As someone who has been absorbing more than my usual share of news lately - good on you for taking care of yourself. God knows how difficult it's been to maintain mental health recently even before the invasion started last week.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:20
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This guy does a decent job providing basic analysis of military stuff, and has a good analysis of the time tables and practical logistical distances facing Russian forces. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKFSK_9e-g4 As stupid as it sounds, this analysis of the Battle of Minas Tirith is also broadly applicable to the current Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Obviously there are differences between wagon-based logistics and modern, vehicle-based logistics, but the fundamentals are remarkably similar. https://acoup.blog/2019/05/10/collections-the-siege-of-gondor/ Ukraine has done far better than anyone had any right to expect, and has an outside chance of pulling off a victory, but it's going to be very touch and go for a few weeks. The bulk of Ukrainian mechanized forces are at a very high risk of being cut off in the eastern part of the country, and across the Dneiper to boot. Those same forces can't move in large formations for the same reasons the Russian mechanized formations have been having trouble: if they stack up on the roads they'll be destroyed by air power; if they go cross-country they'll be stuck in the mud. They have a couple options:
Both are risky, and we're likely to see heavy Ukrainian mechanized casualties before this is over. Russian infantry, too, have modern man-portable anti-tank weapons. Quick edit: the Task & Purpose guy is goofy and campy, but the analysis itself is pretty solid.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:20
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Rubio really just seems to be matching twitter trends, I highly doubt hes reporting intelligence
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Feb 28, 2022 16:20
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SaTaMaS posted:What are cap-and-trade fantasies? it's a valiant deepl attempt at translating this passage: Поэтому некоторым перевозбужденным российским экспертам о своих шапкозакидательских фантазиях лучше всего забыть i cant actually think of a good way to translate it, it's somewhere between "warmongering", "blissful" and "masturbatory"
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Feb 28, 2022 16:22
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FishBulbia posted:I will add that 13 of those soldiers are the heroes of snake island, who will be declared heroes of Ukraine. news from ~4h ago is that they were captured not killed, as per Ukrainian Navy facebook page. I don't have facebook so I can't confirm here's the direct link if anybody has an account https://www.facebook.com/navy.mil.gov.ua/posts/324444389723150
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Feb 28, 2022 16:22
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boofhead posted:news from ~4h ago is that they were captured not killed, as per Ukrainian Navy facebook page. I don't have facebook so I can't confirm I know. I'm have my tongue firmly in my cheek as I'm implying some posters analysis is obviously heavily flavored by wartime propaganda.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:23
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steinrokkan posted:It's absolutely bizarre, where are people coming up with the 99% of nobody twitter accounts that get reposted here who are spewing either absolute nonsense or just random reposts you could get from actual sources just as easily Apparently people are actively seeking these out and reposting them to provide “a necessary counter-perspective.” It’s dumb as poo poo.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:23
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a podcast for cats posted:I thought this was already happening tbh: I'm guessing that before it was being filtered through NATO but now is a direct link between satcom and Ukranian Military/Intel. Tiny Timbs posted:Apparently people are actively seeking these out and reposting them to provide “a necessary counter-perspective.” It’s dumb as poo poo. The thing that bothers me the most about this is that there isn't really a benefit to the "counter-perspective" right now. Ukraine needs all the momentum/morale it can get and the more people think that the underdog has a chance the more they will support them. JerikTelorian fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Feb 28, 2022 |
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Feb 28, 2022 16:23
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Upgrade posted:Curious at the response to indiscriminate rocket strikes in populated cities from the people who were falling over to praise Putin for his heroic efforts to avoid civilian deaths while purging Ukraine of Nazis You can find out on these very forums. Turns out it's that Zelenskyy is using Ukrainian civilians as hostages/human shields
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Feb 28, 2022 16:24
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FishBulbia posted:Rubio really just seems to be matching twitter trends, I highly doubt hes reporting intelligence he is literally getting to read the best intelligence the united states has, via his position as the most senior republican senator on the intelligence committee he may be picking and choosing what he reports publicly but he's not just winging it
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Feb 28, 2022 16:24
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FishBulbia posted:I know. I'm have my tongue firmly in my cheek as I'm implying some posters analysis is obviously heavily flavored by wartime propaganda. ah ok, sorry. there are a lot of real bad posts in here, only some of which are mine, so i didnt catch it
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Feb 28, 2022 16:24
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Ynglaur posted:this analysis of the Battle of Minas Tirith is also broadly applicable to the current Russian Invasion of Ukraine. ohhhh yea that's the good stuff.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:24
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Alchenar posted:This kind of economic confrontation is going to be felt. When you heat your home, you make Putin warm. Wear a jumper!
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Feb 28, 2022 16:25
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Rubio is the new Q!!!! #R Turmp!
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Feb 28, 2022 16:26
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nurmie posted:it's a valiant deepl attempt at translating this passage: Поэтому некоторым перевозбужденным российским экспертам о своих шапкозакидательских фантазиях лучше всего забыть Jingoistic circlejerk then? My Russian is worse than my English, but the word evoked the mental image of idiots throwing their hats in the air to celebrate a brilliant plan.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:26
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The acoup blog guy is also tweeting https://twitter.com/BretDevereaux/status/1498177607531180033?s=20&t=5gzBNA396fB6d1SmaXJpPw
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Feb 28, 2022 16:27
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I really hate that loving Marco Rubio is one of the more accurate sources of information right now.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:27
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nurmie posted:it's a valiant deepl attempt at translating this passage: Поэтому некоторым перевозбужденным российским экспертам о своих шапкозакидательских фантазиях лучше всего забыть No, it means easy win. Like the enemy is so weak we'll defeat them by throwing hats at them.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:27
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I do wonder if this conflict will increase demand for easy to use drone systems. They seem to be very high value technology that can be fed to armed forces that you don't necessarily control yourself (or don't want to get involved in directly). Doesn't seem like a great development tbh, especially considering other conflicts.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:27
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a podcast for cats posted:Jingoistic circlejerk then? My Russian is worse than my English, but the word evoked the mental image of idiots throwing their hats in the air to celebrate a brilliant plan. yeah, that's precisely the image the word is meant to invoke
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Feb 28, 2022 16:27
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Ynglaur posted:
Dang you’re right that does sound stupid
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Feb 28, 2022 16:28
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evilweasel posted:he is literally getting to read the best intelligence the united states has, via his position as the most senior republican senator on the intelligence committee that and he is clearly being the pointman on this for Biden for this part at least because he is being given the gohead to say poo poo like this and hint around at stuff. Virigoth posted:Rubio is the new Q!!!! #R Turmp! nah, he sucks poo poo. he is just useful right now and it gives a sense of bipartisanship which moderates eat up and will probably help the white house some what.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:29
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Ukrainian Ambassador to UN speaking now at general assembly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2MoQnBYCqU
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Feb 28, 2022 16:29
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evilweasel posted:he is literally getting to read the best intelligence the united states has, via his position as the most senior republican senator on the intelligence committee Yeah but this tweet comes hours after the videos emerged on social likewise, his Il-76 tweet (since retracted by DoD) came hours after Ukr claimed it
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Feb 28, 2022 16:29
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It's a framing device for an otherwise dry essay on logistics, folks.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:30
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Looks like they got another Buk from a drone strike : https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1498318586506588160?t=NGH8xYcIBu84L-fYC0xfgg&s=19
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Feb 28, 2022 16:30
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JerikTelorian posted:I'm guessing that before it was being filtered through NATO but now is a direct link between satcom and Ukranian Military/Intel. Also before it was unofficial/assumed and now it's published fact and therefore Russia is "officially" aware that all it's military movements are being fed to Ukraine real-time
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Feb 28, 2022 16:33
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https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498318669654507527 Should've held the riot police convoy in reserve for this, perhaps
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Feb 28, 2022 16:33
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distortion park posted:Looks like they got another Buk from a drone strike : Okay here's a thing that give a little bit of hope: it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to be targetting Buks unless they have some aspiration for exploiting the resulting degredation in anti-air capabilities.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:34
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FishBulbia posted:Yeah but this tweet comes hours after the videos emerged on social yeah but the us government certainly does not have a complete view of everything either, and i would suspect if ukraine said "we shot these down" the dod sent it back until they were able to confirm it probably didn't happen and as a background if you read history books on other wars it is a constant thing that both sides overestimate the casualties they inflict on the other side (in their private attempts to get it right for use in their planning, not public statements where they have an incentive to lie) and things that get hit get reported as "destroyed" when it was only damaged and limped back Alchenar posted:Okay here's a thing that give a little bit of hope: it makes absolutely no sense for Ukraine to be targetting Buks unless they have some aspiration for exploiting the resulting degredation in anti-air capabilities. they want to hit the rest of the convoy with the drones currently in the air without the buk shooting down those drones. don't need to be planning ahead longer than that for it to make sense to hit those first.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:35
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498318669654507527 nah if they bring out the riot cops, the riot pigs will start getting shot by grannies. plus they didnt have a back up wave.
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Feb 28, 2022 16:37
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