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Baronash posted:A kid who has apparently never texted his mom prior to that day? I don't understand how anyone could fool themselves into thinking that was genuine, even for a moment 
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Feb 28, 2022 17:31
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Baronash posted:A kid who has apparently never texted his mom prior to that day? Photos of text should never be taken as gospel truth but also I wouldn't put it past them to be still using the lovely smartphones that have thick bars on top and below the screen. There's a 95% chance it's fabricated, regardless.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:31
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Baronash posted:A kid who has apparently never texted his mom prior to that day? Yeah it's obviously more propaganda, but if it works it works.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:31
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TheRat posted:Yeah it's obviously more propaganda, but if it works it works. I dunno, would have spattered some blood on it if it was going to be a propaganda piece I think...
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Feb 28, 2022 17:32
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the holy poopacy posted:Transitioning meaningfully away from Russian energy would take years even in the best case scenario, and having to build that kind of energy infrastructure while dealing with the economic fallout of sanctions is not going to be the best case scenario. Meanwhile, Russia is also perfectly capable of transitioning to other end markets, so by the time Europe is in position to wield real long-term sanctions not only will it be way too late for Ukraine but it will also be much less effective against Russia. What other markets? In that scenario Russia ends up as a Chinese client state.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:33
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3D Megadoodoo posted:I don't understand how anyone could fool themselves into thinking that was genuine, even for a moment There's fundamentally no way to prove it either way, so either it resonates with you or it does not.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:33
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Zhanism posted:If this is true then that really is nuts. One of the things people say that Russia did after the fiasco with 1st Gerogia war was to upgrade things like comms gear. I remember reading articles of "analysts" salivating all the gear that the Russian troops were parading around. Ohhhh they all got encrypted comms. it seems they fired the military reformer because he rocked the boat. the new guy was a political survivor who as an ethnic minority would never gun for the throne so yeah that explains some.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:33
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JerikTelorian posted:It'll be harder for Russia to meaningfully transition to other markets with economic sanctions in place -- switching needs money and investments, and those won't be easy to get. Sure, but my point is how long can those sanctions stay up while Europe is dependent on Russian oil? Europe will eventually need to relax sanctions to buy time to transition away from Russian resources. For that matter, based on the timing of this invasion I suspect that Russia was already seeing renewable sources as a long term threat to its status as Europe's energy supplier and decided that it needed to get while the getting was good. Russia could have just as easily bided its time while Western democracy rotted and waited for a more politically favorable opportunity. For them to have decided that they couldn't afford to wait, either they figured that Europe would be more stable and united in the future or they figured that Europe would be less dependent on their energy resources, and one of those sounds like a way better assumption than the other.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:34
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Somaen posted:Guys on the right came right from the war, guys on the left came from their comfy chairs from which they're sending others to the war That's absolutely the message that the Ukranians are trying to send. We're ordinary guys caught up in the fight against big bad professionals. It's good optics.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:34
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Kaal posted:There's fundamentally no way to prove it either way, so either it resonates with you or it does not. The thing that made me instantly think it was fake was because it looked like it was written to absolutely perfectly be presented as a piece of Ukranian propaganda to the public. Like, it could hardly be more perfect.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:35
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3D Megadoodoo posted:I don't understand how anyone could fool themselves into thinking that was genuine, even for a moment I feel sorry for the notional construct of a young person sent to fight a bloody imperialist war, regardless
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Feb 28, 2022 17:35
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What other markets? this, its just china and china will take them for all they have. russia isnt gonna get let back into the big western boys club again.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:35
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The Georgian Ambassador's english is really spectacular; he's a great speaker.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:36
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the holy poopacy posted:Sure, but my point is how long can those sanctions stay up while Europe is dependent on Russian oil? Europe will eventually need to relax sanctions to buy time to transition away from Russian resources. they have. its a reason they keep pushing various weird fringe green groups(against nukes and other stuff) or chuds who hate green energy.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:37
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:That's absolutely the message that the Ukranians are trying to send. We're ordinary guys caught up in the fight against big bad professionals. It's good optics. I'm still waiting for "Ukraine is showing poor Decorum" takes from the far right.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:37
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this, its just china and china will take them for all they have. russia isnt gonna get let back into the big western boys club again. I admire your optimism, I really do. In the end I fear greed and opportunistic profiteering always wins out. People have annoyingly short memories.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:37
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slowdave posted:I feel sorry for the notional construct of a young person sent to fight a bloody imperialist war, regardless I don't feel so good about old people dying in wars, either. Anyway they should hire better copywriters. Dapper_Swindler posted:this, its just china and china will take them for all they have. russia isnt gonna get let back into the big western boys club again. Putin will end his days with a cushy post at the IOC or FIFA or something, regardless of what happens.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:37
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Is it accurate to say that this war is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine but Russia, Belarus, and Chechnya vs Ukraine? If so, what would stop EU countries (or even America) from engaging directly with non-Russian forces? Belarus and Chechnya are not nuclear states as far as I know.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:37
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If Putin wants to be the force for denazification in the world, he should emulate the biggest example and shoot himself in the head in a bunker, the goddamn war criminal. Jesus goddamn christ this whole loving invasion and suffering is so pointless, all to make name on map bigger.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:38
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small butter posted:Is it accurate to say that this war is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine but Russia, Belarus, and Chechnya vs Ukraine? If so, what would stop EU countries (or even America) from engaging directly with non-Russian forces? Belarus and Chechnya are not nuclear states as far as I know. Chechnya is a part of Russia
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Feb 28, 2022 17:38
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I think that's the most obvious piece of propaganda yet. At least the Ghost of Kyiv thing could've been based on a pilot who got a couple kills and then spun out of control.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:38
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/ua_parliament/status/1498326340591919110?s=20&t=bpnmVhkBPNnkN-tQ8TQ6iw What are the chances this happens? I'd like to go work in France or something.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:39
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small butter posted:Is it accurate to say that this war is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine but Russia, Belarus, and Chechnya vs Ukraine? If so, what would stop EU countries (or even America) from engaging directly with non-Russian forces? Belarus and Chechnya are not nuclear states as far as I know. It’s Russia and Russias client states so it’s not meaningfully different. They’re basically Russian forces
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Feb 28, 2022 17:39
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Youth Decay posted:Horses are better at moving through mud than tanks and trucks. The Polish cavalry shall have its revenge! I just realized I desperately want to see horseback troops with Javelins and MANPADs, which may unironically be an effective choice right now.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:39
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JerikTelorian posted:The Georgian Ambassador's english is really spectacular; he's a great speaker. I believe this is him, though they look different. https://twitter.com/ale_mais?lang=en
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Feb 28, 2022 17:39
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? None, that'd drag the whole of the EU into war.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:39
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small butter posted:Is it accurate to say that this war is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine but Russia, Belarus, and Chechnya vs Ukraine? If so, what would stop EU countries (or even America) from engaging directly with non-Russian forces? Belarus and Chechnya are not nuclear states as far as I know. Belarus is however a CSTO state. Collective defence, like NATO. Chechnya is straight-up part of Russia, a nuclear state
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Feb 28, 2022 17:40
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BigRed0427 posted:I'm still waiting for "Ukraine is showing poor Decorum" takes from the far right. It's mostly centrists and liberals that are super in to Decorum coelomate posted:I just realized I desperately want to see horseback troops with Javelins and MANPADs, which may unironically be an effective choice right now. Dragoons are BACK baby. I must alert the MilHist thread.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:40
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TheRat posted:I admire your optimism, I really do. In the end I fear greed and opportunistic profiteering always wins out. People have annoyingly short memories. sure for when its about middle east "brown nations" but now Russia broke the big rule of "don't have your imperial adventures in countries we actually care about, especially Europe against white people" spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? probably possible. even if its just symbolic.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:41
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? With a French election happening in less than two months, probably not gonna happen.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:41
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coelomate posted:I just realized I desperately want to see horseback troops with Javelins and MANPADs, which may unironically be an effective choice right now. This ARMA update is looking weird.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:41
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this, its just china and china will take them for all they have. russia isnt gonna get let back into the big western boys club again. this is not a good outcome, Russia can and should be able to re-join the world at large and normalize relations if possible. Nations should not be punished in perpetuity, we let Germany back into the world stage after the holocaust, I think there is a possible future were Russia can be a good member of the international community.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:42
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:What other markets? The entire developing world? They'd definitely become more dependent on China, further accelerating China's emergence as the world's sole superpower, but they wouldn't be a Chinese client state any more than the U.S. already is.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:42
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tractor fanatic posted:Chechnya is a part of Russia And I'll bet Belarus has a mutual defense treaty with Russia. Overt, direct kinetic action is a non-starter.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:42
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Ynglaur posted:And I'll bet Belarus has a mutual defense treaty with Russia. Overt, direct kinetic action is a non-starter. Belarus is, effectively as of the last referendum, part of Russia.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:43
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Ynglaur posted:And I'll bet Belarus has a mutual defense treaty with Russia. Overt, direct kinetic action is a non-starter. They do indeed.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:43
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spacetoaster posted:What are the chances this happens? short term 0. Long term supposing ukraine survives? good. ukraine's bought a lot of good will with this resistance. it may be enough to overcome the "having to help rebuild a destroyed state" problem
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Feb 28, 2022 17:43
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Recognition of Crimea, a guarantee of neutrality (not joining NATO or the EU officially) seem like things that maybe could be agreed to
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Feb 28, 2022 17:43
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Dapper_Swindler posted:sure for when its about middle east "brown nations" but now Russia broke the big rule of "don't have your imperial adventures in countries we actually care about, especially Europe against white people" I'm not sure where you're from, but as someone living in western europe I don't think you realise how little western europeans thinks of eastern europe. The anti-eastern racism is real bad.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:44
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Ynglaur posted:And I'll bet Belarus has a mutual defense treaty with Russia. Overt, direct kinetic action is a non-starter. Well there's this thing called Union State of Russia and Belarus.
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Feb 28, 2022 17:44
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