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I just keep thinking about all potential outcomes for Putin in this, and is it me, but none of them seem terribly great? Option A – he successfully occupies Ukraine. This seems unlikely and like it would result in a prolonged insurgency which would continue to wreck Russia's economy if they continue engaging Option B – he partially occupies Ukraine and manages to install a puppet government. At this point, what's stopping the populace from toppling said puppet government? Ukrainians have successfully done that previously, I'd assume that would happen again? Option C – he withdraws and continues screeching into the ether about nazis with his tail between his legs. Option D – ???
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Mar 1, 2022 19:23
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TheRat posted:How on earth would they police this offer at this stage? Pre-emptively let them all in and sort it out in asylum hearings later? Like every refugee admission program in every country in the world does?
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Mar 1, 2022 19:23
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https://twitter.com/edroso/status/1498692305880035332 Gosh i wonder why
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Mar 1, 2022 19:24
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498725128368267267?s=20&t=Z5FzfHdYfe0Qm5yEjW_8Gw I think an addition to the bottom point according to other US intel is that air defences are more robust in some areas than others. Or maybe i'm thinking of Russian air superiority - in smaller areas they have it but overall it's still flimsy.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:24
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Pre-emptively let them all in and sort it out in asylum hearings later? So you let someone in, figure out they're a wrong'un. Woops, now you have a asymul seeker that you cant return because he's a deserter so you get to keep him anyway.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:25
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Keep in mind that Russia is pulling in Belarus (up to +50k), and is also moving Far East reinforcements (tbd count). If they don't have food or supply lines this just throws more bodies in to starve. They can't buy food or supplies because their currency is worthless. This is only exacerbating their logistics issues  It really is like a bad CIV Player going "BUILD TANK NUKE WIN GAME"  and no economy or resource allocation
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Mar 1, 2022 19:25
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I have to say it is kinda irksome to see people keep saying "oh NATO/US must be doing <thing> because the Ukrainian military has been so successful at <thing>" like with the drone piloting and attacks. Feels as though people can't accept that the UA could be competent by itself. Big exception of course being things like satellite imagery.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:26
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Shifty Pony posted:I have to say it is kinda irksome to see people keep saying "oh NATO/US must be doing <thing> because the Ukrainian military has been so successful at <thing>" like with the drone piloting and attacks. Feels as though people can't accept that the UA could be competent by itself. It's obviously both. This is not a zero sum question like Putin's paranoid perspective.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:26
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I really hope Biden explains why America absolutely cannot become involved with this war tonight. The longer this goes on the greater support for American involvement will get https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1498707386558824450?s=20&t=gbkCvwaXZHvEWhgd97EEMA
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Mar 1, 2022 19:27
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awesome-express posted:
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Mar 1, 2022 19:27
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Numlock posted:One thing that I don't think anyone has pointe out yet is that roasting a bunch of conscripts that might of been unwilling to fight anyway would be a PR disaster for the Ukrainians. Assuming they had the ability to do so. The Highway of death was an public relations nightmare because the United States obliterated the poo poo out of a 100,000 defeated Iraqis with their backs turned running for their lives. Quite a bit of a difference between that scenario and a scenario where a giant convoy actively invading a European country is devastated in a similar way. HOWEVER, that’s all academic. If the UA or Air Force has the capacity to hit that convoy like the coalition did on the highway of death it would have happened already. Full stop.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:28
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awesome-express posted:I just keep thinking about all potential outcomes for Putin in this, and is it me, but none of them seem terribly great? There are no viable good outcomes for Russia in this. We're seeing Russian and Ukrainian people dying and being displaced because one narcissistic old gently caress is angry because he's being made look bad in public. I can't imagine what its like to have my country led by someone who would commit atrocities rather than step down or even look a bit weak for a while
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Mar 1, 2022 19:30
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awesome-express posted:I just keep thinking about all potential outcomes for Putin in this, and is it me, but none of them seem terribly great? Option D is to go full Nazi and genocide Ukrainians to suppress the insurgency. A variant of this is to completely flatten Kyiv and Kharkhiv as part of the invasion, in order to get a head start. I don't think there's any doubt that Putin has the ruthlessness and the weapons to do this. The question is whether his soldiers would continue following orders, and whether there would be sufficient unrest in Russia to topple the government.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:30
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awesome-express posted:I just keep thinking about all potential outcomes for Putin in this, and is it me, but none of them seem terribly great? Option D - Oligarchs who are pissed off about all the financial losses they are taking have someone slip him some polonium tea.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:31
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fatherboxx posted:Shooting a TV tower to stop propaganda and hitting a holocaust memorial is a remarkable denazification success I will never forget the unintended surrealism of this war. It's like Russia took all of the worst lessons of Rumsfeld-style tactical and messaging agitprop myopia ('we will be greeted as liberators,' wmd's, etc), took only the most laughable portions of them, slammed them into a blender, then vomited them up as rationale, all while eating poo poo on the ground and handing every messaging and imaging victory to Ukraine. Alternate response: the attack on the holocaust memorial is them getting revenge for the incident where they fired upon but were ultimately forced to retreat from the unmanned vehicle park memorial
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Mar 1, 2022 19:31
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Gripweed posted:I really hope Biden explains why America absolutely cannot become involved with this war tonight. The longer this goes on the greater support for American involvement will get Rasmussen = giant block of salt. They're a conservative polling company bordering on fringe.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:31
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Cimber posted:Option D - Oligarchs who are pissed off about all the financial losses they are taking have someone slip him some polonium tea. Option F: the Russian military starts giving up in droves, the military completely stops listening to Putin, government falls.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:32
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Shifty Pony posted:
Interesting example since a Ukrainian (civilian) imaging sat got launched (on an American rocket) like a week before this mess.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:32
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Cimber posted:Option D - Oligarchs who are pissed off about all the financial losses they are taking have someone slip him some polonium tea. I think the "oligarchs" became (and remain) oligarchs by being loyal to Putin. I think they might exert their own kind of pressure, but they're not going to run a coup.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:...and is also moving Far East reinforcements (tbd count). Give me more Buryats! isn't going to improve their situation much and is disgusting really, if he believes Eastern District losses are more palatable to the man on the street and might avoid outrage.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Keep in mind that Russia is pulling in Belarus (up to +50k), and is also moving Far East reinforcements (tbd count). Given their logistics issues, is that actually going to make things better? In HoI4 when the supply turns red in a zone I usually move units out, not in.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:34
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awesome-express posted:I just keep thinking about all potential outcomes for Putin in this, and is it me, but none of them seem terribly great? If I'm Putin, my Option D is to just resign and retire to Bermuda. I can't even imagine how much stress and anxiety he is experiencing right now.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:34
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I'm horribly uninformed, but I had gathered that taking Kiev largely undamaged was important because its ancient buildings are very symbolically important to the idea of a coherent, cohesive russian empire. If they destroy old Kiev, surely they are destroying old imperial Russia,?
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Mar 1, 2022 19:34
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Discendo Vox posted:Rasmussen = giant block of salt. They're a conservative polling company bordering on fringe. Weren't they Trump's favourite polling company? That should tell you all you need to know about them
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Mar 1, 2022 19:34
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Pookah posted:I can't imagine what its like to have my country led by someone who would commit atrocities rather than step down or even look a bit weak for a while I take it you're not American.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:34
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Pookah posted:I'm horribly uninformed, but I had gathered that taking Kiev largely undamaged was important because its ancient buildings are very symbolically important to the idea of a coherent, cohesive russian empire. They'll just rebuild it, with more opulence!
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Mar 1, 2022 19:35
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Eric Cantonese posted:I think the "oligarchs" became (and remain) oligarchs by being loyal to Putin. I think they might exert their own kind of pressure, but they're not going to run a coup. I wouldn't be so sure of that. They probably view him as a useful leader who lets them dip into the gov't coffers as much as they want in return for them letting him stick around. Once he poses a threat to their power they may want to take steps to replace him with another useful idiot. Last thing they want is a populist uprising. Look what happened the last time that happened in Russia about 100ish years ago.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:35
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The problem people have with the concept of Russian oligarch is that they imagine them as American billionaires, the power behind the throne that moves all the strings, when in reality they are just feudal lords in an absolutist monarchy (where the monarch commands his own forces as well, independent of the oligarchs), they owe their fiefdoms to Putin. Doesn't mean they couldn't leverage them under certain conditions, but makes it unlikely and dangerous.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:35
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awesome-express posted:I just keep thinking about all potential outcomes for Putin in this, and is it me, but none of them seem terribly great? It's wild that you can't even conceive of a negotiated peace. Ukraine and Russia could absolutely come to terms that Putin finds agreeable. Russia losing isn't somehow just destiny because we wouldn't like it.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:35
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Eric Cantonese posted:I think the "oligarchs" became (and remain) oligarchs by being loyal to Putin. I think they might exert their own kind of pressure, but they're not going to run a coup. But at some point once your net worth plunges to a degree you no longer find comfortable, what happens then? The moment you can no longer buy Lambos/Yachts/Hookers/Real estate/education abroad for your kids/other poo poo, they'll start squirming pretty hard. Humans love comfort and any rocking of said boat will always end up with them wanting to return to a level of previously-achieved comfort. Ciprian Maricon posted:It's wild that you can't even conceive a negotiated peace. Ukraine and Russia could absolutely come to terms that Putin finds agreeable. awesome-express fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 19:36
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We all know Ukrainians don't exist so maybe Kyiv doesn't exist either?
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Mar 1, 2022 19:36
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TheRat posted:So you let someone in, figure out they're a wrong'un. Woops, now you have a asymul seeker that you cant return because he's a deserter so you get to keep him anyway. JFC this is literally the world-wide right-wingers excuse for not taking in refugees, and a huge cause of suffering. "Oh, maybe 0.01% of them are terrorists/war criminals/gang members. Send them all back to their country to face torture just in case." It's also entirely moot, because at the point you determine that your asylum seeker is a war criminal, congratulations, you found a war criminal and can send them to the Hague.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:36
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Lead out in cuffs posted:JFC this is literally the world-wide right-wingers excuse for not taking in refugees, and a huge cause of suffering. "Oh, maybe 0.01% of them are terrorists/war criminals/gang members. Send them all back to their country to face torture just in case." There's a difference between taking in refugees and taking in a literal fighting army of deserters.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:37
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Pookah posted:I'm horribly uninformed, but I had gathered that taking Kiev largely undamaged was important because its ancient buildings are very symbolically important to the idea of a coherent, cohesive russian empire. I doubt the buildings have anything to do with it. The main benefit from rolling in and capturing the capital with minimal force and destruction is the demonstration of how unstoppable the invading force seems. That ripples down to all the people in the UA and civilians and influences their decision to continue fighting or not.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:38
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Shifty Pony posted:I have to say it is kinda irksome to see people keep saying "oh NATO/US must be doing <thing> because the Ukrainian military has been so successful at <thing>" like with the drone piloting and attacks. Feels as though people can't accept that the UA could be competent by itself. The UA is very obviously extremely competent, but being fed intelligence, equipment, tactical and strategic counseling etc. from NATO/EU is a force multiplier we won't fully appreciate until this is long over.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:38
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TheRat posted:So you let someone in, figure out they're a wrong'un. Woops, now you have a asymul seeker that you cant return because he's a deserter so you get to keep him anyway. Only extend the asylum offer to enlisted men and NCO, not to officers, since they would be the ones responsible for any crimes. Alternatively only do vetting on officers, but do it all that much thoroughly.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:38
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steinrokkan posted:The problem people have with the concept of Russian oligarch is that they imagine them as American billionaires, the power behind the throne that moves all the strings, when in reality they are just feudal lords in an absolutist monarchy (where the monarch commands his own forces as well, independent of the oligarchs), they owe their fiefdoms to Putin. Doesn't mean they couldn't leverage them under certain conditions, but makes it unlikely and dangerous. Billionaires are the same everywhere, they are motivated exclusively by money and wealth. They are entirely controlled by id. I'm not expecting a palace coup, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:38
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steinrokkan posted:The problem people have with the concept of Russian oligarch is that they imagine them as American billionaires, the power behind the throne that moves all the strings, when in reality they are just feudal lords in an absolutist monarchy, they owe their fiefdoms to Putin. Doesn't mean they couldn't leverage them under certain conditions, but makes it unlikely and dangerous. The king is the king until he’s not the king anymore. All I think most people should be confident about saying is that we don’t know how this is going to play out. The response from the west to a local conflict is pretty unprecedented in the post soviet era.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:39
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steinrokkan posted:Only extend the asylum offer to enlisted men and NCO, not to officers, since they would be the ones responsible for any crimes. Alternatively only do vetting on officers, but do it all that much thoroughly. There's a fairly famous precedent that 'I was just following orders' isn't a valid excuse.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:40
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Popete posted:I take it you're not American. Irish. Our lovely politicians are fortunately still at the stage when the can be forced out by being shitbags about covid regs. Nowhere is perfect, but Ireland is generally very sensible, politically speaking. We don't do extremism.
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Mar 1, 2022 19:40
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