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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:This is a fair point, when it happened in my neighborhood I did not stand by, but I didn't resort to violence - simply peaceful protesting. If they had started to actually attack my neighbors though I wouldn't have been as passive. The Ukrainian people are looking at more dire consequences than my personal experiences and many of them probably do want to fight. What even is propaganda, in this case? Is it state-media saying everything is fine/get your guns and defend the homeland? Is it social media botswarms platforming something that gets peoples' blood pumping? Is it individual users on Twitter retweeting Ghost of Kyiv memes long after the original DCS video was debunked? Does it have to have a state-source, or does "organic" propaganda count? Unless stuff like this gets defined, the definition of propaganda becomes "any positive depiction of something I don't like." Which isn't useful as far as definitions go and makes it hard to identify actual propaganda. And even after you define it, you have a fog-of-war problem: how do you know if a piece of information is state-sponsored or some idiot with a tractor and a TikTok? I'm going to go ahead and assume that 1) propaganda is state-sponsored media designed to influence public opinion about a subject, regardless of the merit of desirability of the subject matter and 2) that you can't meaningfully identify state-sponsored media and organic "guy stole a BUK with his John Deer" videos. If there is a moral imperative to not contribute to misinformation or unduly influence people into fighting, we can't share anything we see on social media about this because our inability to identify the source and intent of the content makes all content suspect. And if this is a moral imperative for the presumed good of society, then the platforms themselves ought to discourage our outright forbid the sharing of this content. Information should only come out unmolested from trusted sources. However, there are no trustworthy sources of information: the various militaries have every reason to inflate reports to favor their own side. Every video shot and word written right now has some slant behind it because the originator of that information had a specific goal in mind. Even info from non-partisan groups such as, for example, the ICRC, is tainted by this because the casualty reports have to come from somewhere, and that somewhere has motive to "round" in favor of their side. By this logic, you can't share any news related to the war. Images of refugees streaming across the border will always provoke a response, but the response is colored by the individual and persons around that individual. For the same photo, and American wine mom posts about a no-fly zone, a Ukranian college student packs their bags and makes ready to flee the country, and a Ukranian expat lands in Poland with vengeance on his mind. And sure, we could flood the airwaves with how war is hell, but again any image will provoke a response and the response varies. Images of dead civilians will make some people flee, and others will get really angry and decide to go put a bullet in the people who killed those civilians. My question then is what level of information control can reliably allow factual information (of which there's not much) about an ongoing war to reach the public without influencing the public to flee or fight? My answer is "this is an impossible task" but you might have something better for me?
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Mar 1, 2022 22:00
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Pook Good Mook posted:The rocket might be relatively straight but a target on water is bobbing and shifting with waves, even bobbing below eyeline of the rocket. This conversation started out with the claim the TOW, a wire guided missile, can't fly over water. It is in fact something you control.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:01
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:Is there any indication that Putin will just stop at Ukraine and not keep going into the other "break-off" former Soviet Union countries? Besides the fact that the Russian military currently seems run entirely on Clown shoes and expired rations and can't take CITIES in Ukraine, let alone the country? Like I would be surprised if they could invade anyone after this.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:01
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Zephro posted:I know that, there was massive mistrust on both sides, everyone knew they were allies of convenience, there were crazy plans to re-arm the Wehrmacht and invade the USSR before they did the same to us etc. But they didn't start from a position where the two sides were literally fighting a straight up proxy war with real guns, which is where we're at now. I'm not trying to derail or be disagreeable, but "The UN" (the west) and USSR/China were in a literal shooting war in Korea 5 years after WWII, at a point where both sides had nukes. What I'm getting at is that is that this is not untrodden ground.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:01
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thunderspanks posted:There is a non zero chance this does not actually happen. The invasion has been a categorical failure in every regard so far and that was before the whole planet started dunking on Russia. It does sort of seem like everyone just really was waiting for an unarguable reason to dunk on Russia. Like they've really been asking for it, for some time now, but everyone else wanted to play nice and keep making money.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:02
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Mustard Iceman posted:Hence why they've greeted their Russian liberators with open arms and fresh baked pie. I have extended family in Ukraine i.e. sister in law who I’m close to, and her family, visited there in 2011 and talk to or about them frequently. Ukraine is the type of place where your employer will shake down their staff for money to bribe an “inspector” so that they can continue operating, where it is the norm for government employees to have an alternate source of shady income related to benefits of their job, where people at the airport/customs will shake you down for money, making up laws you are violating to get a $100 payoff to supplement their lovely income (happened to my brother in Lviv airport), and so forth. If you’re an important enough businessman in the area you can tell police officers to gently caress off and even beat them up if they give you too much of a hassle (probably they needed to learn who they can pick on and who they cannot). This is all examples from my extended family’s contacts. Since 2011 it has *slowly* gotten better likely due to more contact with the West, as opposed to Russia, which while the West still has its problems, they aren’t like Russia problems. Seeing people with better lives will cause them to fight against the norm.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:02
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TulliusCicero posted:Besides the fact that the Russian military currently seems run entirely on Clown shoes and expired rations and can't take CITIES in Ukraine, let alone the country? Once that miles long convoy get there im sure that will change.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:02
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Blue Footed Booby posted:This conversation started out with the claim the TOW, a wire guided missile, can't fly over water. It is in fact something you control. And I thought the consensus was that you could? Maybe I missed an intermediate post. I understand that the wire is coated so the water doesn't screw up the piloting.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:03
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Zephro posted:I know that, there was massive mistrust on both sides, everyone knew they were allies of convenience, there were crazy plans to re-arm the Wehrmacht and invade the USSR before they did the same to us etc. But they didn't start from a position where the two sides were literally fighting a straight up proxy war with real guns, which is where we're at now. You're giving way too much credit to something Churchill asked some British generals to have a look into to call it "a plan". They did look into it and basically told him it was crazy and extremely dangerous and assumed that the Americans would just have to come along for the ride as well, which was by no means a given. The Cold War was not as inevitable as it's often presented. And during the war the mistrust was waaay more coming from Stalin than the Allies, especially the Americans who may have been a little too trusting at times, which was not helped by Britain angering both the Americans and the Soviets by attempting colonial rearguard actions in Asia and such. EDIT: "Unthinkable" as it was was Churchill commissioning a report from the military about the feasibility of a surprise attack on Soviet forces in Europe (rearming German POWs was one scenario looked at) and the military replying, "No.Such an operation is crazy, don't do it". Randarkman fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 22:03
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Warmachine posted:If there is a moral imperative to not contribute to misinformation or unduly influence people into fighting, we can't share anything we see on social media about this because our inability to identify the source and intent of the content makes all content suspect. And if this is a moral imperative for the presumed good of society, then the platforms themselves ought to discourage our outright forbid the sharing of this content. Information should only come out unmolested from trusted sources. Perhaps there is a moral imperative to influence people into fighting, depending on your specific audience, for the presumed good of that audience. But yeah, disinfo should be left to the combatants.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:05
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Pook Good Mook posted:And I thought the consensus was that you could? Maybe I missed an intermediate post. I understand that the wire is coated so the water doesn't screw up the piloting. There was one guy saying the reflection on the water of the IR flare screws things up, another saying it doesn't, and nothing I saw that resolved the issue of whether they have some issue with water. This thread moves too fast to catch everything so I too am confused.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:05
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thunderspanks posted:There is a non zero chance this does not actually happen. The invasion has been a categorical failure in every regard so far and that was before the whole planet started dunking on Russia. I really hope they don't take Kyiv, because given the historical reputation of Russian infantry warcrimes and retribution will surely follow. Ukrainians speak Russian and can look Russian, so I would expect the undercover sabotages and ambushes to be particularly brutal. They would have to escalate to the level of public executions and bodily dismemberment in order to cow the populace through fear. If they went that far though, either Putin would be dead from assassination or we would see NATO guaranteed to intervene in Ukraine.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:06
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Pook Good Mook posted:What I'm getting at is that is that this is not untrodden ground. Zephro fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 22:06
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:Is there any indication that Putin will just stop at Ukraine and not keep going into the other "break-off" former Soviet Union countries? Most of the reason everyone in "the west" is up in arms about this and why the whole world has decided to throw economic sanctions on Russia is that they're afraid of this very thing happening. Even if Ukraine loses (and lets be honest, Russia punches way above Ukraine on 'ability to throw military resources into the meatgrinder') the idea is that it'll be so costly that Russia can't reasonably expect to go on any more wars of imperialism without getting coup'd by its own generals. At least for a generation anyway.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:07
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:Is there any indication that Putin will just stop at Ukraine and not keep going into the other "break-off" former Soviet Union countries? their military is already in shambles and will be completely spent by the time this is over, and they're still going to be utterly broke and international pariahs
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Mar 1, 2022 22:08
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enigma74 posted:... If they went that far though, either Putin would be dead from assassination or we would see NATO guaranteed to intervene in Ukraine. Almost certainly incorrect
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Mar 1, 2022 22:08
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Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:i dont think you can compare encouragement of political violence in CSPAM, an internet message board, versus the communal identity of ukraine, a people bound by a common language, cultural symbols, and a desire for self-defense. one is a community of people who make jokes about politics with strangers on the internet and the other is forty million individuals with a thousand year historical legacy That's fair. I think we're in consensus in general, we just disagree on how significant the propaganda portion is? Thank you for the discussion. Ynglaur posted:For context, 1st_Panzer_Div., are you a pacifist? I'm not asking to be an rear end in a top hat, but to understand if that's the root of your objections. I am not a pacifist. And to reiterate, I hate nazis. I also despise war. As such, I think the people of Ukraine are largely better off by accommodating an unjust peace in the short term, which allows them to live, prevents continued infrastructure destruction, and gives the world time to pressure & sanction Russia away from Ukraine. If that fails there is seemingly a never ending supply of new war options. Give peace a chance first.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:09
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I say this every night, but it's gonna be an ugly one. Ukrainian military thinks Russia is working up to an event that they can use to get Belarus into the war. Based on the invasion maps Lukashenko shared on TV I don't think they're planning to stay on the sidelines, so I'm inclined to believe it. https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498740938839101448?t=eOck34CTZ35L4T6fND6j0g&s=19
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Mar 1, 2022 22:10
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:I am not a pacifist. And to reiterate, I hate nazis. I also despise war. As such, I think the people of Ukraine are largely better off by accommodating an unjust peace in the short term, which allows them to live, prevents continued infrastructure destruction, and gives the world time to pressure & sanction Russia away from Ukraine. If that fails there is seemingly a never ending supply of new war options. Give peace a chance first. This is one of the most astoundingly stupid things I've read in this thread and it's been a long journey.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:11
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OddObserver posted:Some important educational material for you: BigBallChunkyTime posted:Once that miles long convoy get there im sure that will change.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:11
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Warmachine posted:Most of the reason everyone in "the west" is up in arms about this and why the whole world has decided to throw economic sanctions on Russia is that they're afraid of this very thing happening. Even if Ukraine loses (and lets be honest, Russia punches way above Ukraine on 'ability to throw military resources into the meatgrinder') the idea is that it'll be so costly that Russia can't reasonably expect to go on any more wars of imperialism without getting coup'd by its own generals. At least for a generation anyway. Also the fact that every other breakaway is either sucking Putin's left nut (the various southern 'stans & belarus) or is already in NATO (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia)
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Mar 1, 2022 22:11
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No, there are no viable "future war options" if Ukraine surrenders and Russia takes over without a fight. And there wouldn't have been significant pressure (relatively) for sanctions if Russia had not overstepped the boundaries of international law and diplomatic conventions by such a huge margin. In essence, Shes Not Impressed posted:This is one of the most astoundingly stupid things I've read in this thread and it's been a long journey.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:11
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Zephro posted:No I agree, and that's why my default assumption is Cold War 2.0 for the next few decades. A nice big frozen European war a thousand kilometres east of the last one, bleh. Though this time there's a bonus third player in China who would likely be delighted to see two big military power blocs tying each other up for the next half century. I cross my fingers with the hope that Russian society collapses, and goes through a deep sociocultural reformation instead of your more likely scenario of Cold War 2.0. If the west could bring Russia into the democratic order, then China would be surrounded and isolated as the last powerful totalitarian state.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:11
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:Once that miles long convoy get there im sure that will change. Okay so to alleviate this fear: the Russian military in its current state is not invading another European country next to Ukraine. Like no loving way.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:12
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:
How has that worked out for them since the seizure of Crimea and the Russian occupation of the Donbas region? They tried that. For 8 years. Where did it get them?
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Mar 1, 2022 22:12
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*points gun at u* Give peace a chance, bitch
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Mar 1, 2022 22:12
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the popes toes posted:Perhaps there is a moral imperative to influence people into fighting, depending on your specific audience, for the presumed good of that audience. But yeah, disinfo should be left to the combatants. I mean, disclaimer, I am in the "make Russia bleed for every foot forward they step" camp. I think Ukraine's cause is the moral one, and that those who are willing and able to fight should be enabled to do so while those who are unwilling or unable should be evacuated with haste. Both sides are full of corruption and far-right ultranationalist elements, but one of the two decided to step across the border and do an imperialism.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:12
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KitConstantine posted:I say this every night, but it's gonna be an ugly one. What kind of 'deliberate provocation'? Russia lobs a missile into Belarus and blames it on Ukraine?
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Mar 1, 2022 22:12
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The idea that you can just surrender your sovereignty, your government, the very freedom of your people as individuals, AND then fight back is so incredibly asinine that I still have trouble even processing how you'd come up with it.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:14
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Zephro posted:No I agree, and that's why my default assumption is Cold War 2.0 for the next few decades. A nice big frozen European war a thousand kilometres east of the last one, bleh. Though this time there's a bonus third player in China who would likely be delighted to see two big military power blocs tying each other up for the next half century. On the other hand, a united Europe, a re-awakened NATO, a US military with an even bigger budget, a business climate that fucks with supply chain costs that make their exports expensive, food insecurity (their worst fear) and a renewed distrust of autocratic states. I'm not entirely sure that China would like to see this blow up much beyond being able to gobble up Russian industry at Oxfam prices.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:14
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Isn’t Belarus already in the war? I thought they got a turn in the nightly paradrop of death a few nights back
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Mar 1, 2022 22:14
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:That's fair. I think we're in consensus in general, we just disagree on how significant the propaganda portion is? Thank you for the discussion. You are aware that once they are occupied any action that isn't surrender becomes infinitely more likely to fail, yes? You can't just go "oh nm" when they install a puppet government and destroy your armed forces. Like the stayed goal of the invasion, even if you take it entirely at face value, was to tear down the existing government and military as part of their 'denazi' efforts. If that succeeds Ukraine as an independent nation functionally ceases to exist. ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 22:14
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TulliusCicero posted:Okay so to alleviate this fear: the Russian military in its current state is not invading another European country next to Ukraine. I'm sure Moldova feels very safe right now.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:15
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DandyLion posted:What kind of 'deliberate provocation'? Russia lobs a missile into Belarus and blames it on Ukraine? They are just going to lie about whatever and do it anyway, because Lukashenko is an absolute lickspittle
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Mar 1, 2022 22:15
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Isn’t Belarus already in the war? I thought they got a turn in the nightly paradrop of death a few nights back Lukashenko claims no participation in Ukraine.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:15
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Isn’t Belarus already in the war? I thought they got a turn in the nightly paradrop of death a few nights back Yeah or even outside of that, troops are transiting through the country and there were those missile strikes.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:15
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:That's fair. I think we're in consensus in general, we just disagree on how significant the propaganda portion is? Thank you for the discussion. My problem with your assessment is that I don't think peace is on the table for Ukrainian partisans. I wasn't being hyperbolic when I said "Ukraine becomes Afghanistan anyway." Even if the world has the will to bleed Russia dry economically while Russia reenacts the whole Iraq War, that still leaves a whole Iraq War foisted on Ukraine.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:16
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Shes Not Impressed posted:This is one of the most astoundingly stupid things I've read in this thread and it's been a long journey. How is that so astoundingly stupid? The government is egging on civilians to take up arms, and it's not a fight for their existence or their ethnic identity, it's a fight for their government. I think there's a plenty big moral discussion to be had over the benefits of fighting to the death.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:17
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:That's fair. I think we're in consensus in general, we just disagree on how significant the propaganda portion is? Thank you for the discussion. You do understand that this is exactly what happened in 2014, right? We are currently at the stage where Putin got his pound of meat at that time, proceeded to not be satisfied by it, reneged on the agreements underpinning that peace and ultimately leading us to where we are today. Context matters. Peace was given a chance. Aramis fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Mar 1, 2022 |
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Mar 1, 2022 22:17
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:I am not a pacifist. And to reiterate, I hate nazis. I also despise war. As such, I think the people of Ukraine are largely better off by accommodating an unjust peace in the short term, which allows them to live, prevents continued infrastructure destruction, and gives the world time to pressure & sanction Russia away from Ukraine. If that fails there is seemingly a never ending supply of new war options. Give peace a chance first.
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Mar 1, 2022 22:17
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