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ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

ZombieLenin posted:

And the USDOD and intelligence service saying there had been no appreciable change to Russia’s nuclear forces status.

So again, it was with words; and it sounds like when I read all of the end of the world stuff in this thread, his words are working to do precisely what he’s calculated them to.

I agree but I also think it is fair to say that if someone points a gun, it is okay to feel uncomfortable or concerned even if you are 100% sure they are not going to fire. It is a lovely and disturbing feeling and that is why death threats are lovely even if they have little power behind them.

This isn't exclusive to Russia either. It is lovely in any situation.

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Hiro Protagonist
Oct 25, 2010

Last of the freelance hackers and
Greatest swordfighter in the world

Vorenus posted:

https://www-g4media-ro.translate.go...r2wwyD8.twitter

People reporting both aircraft confirmed crashed, likely due to weather. There's a video of an explosion *apparently* over the Black Sea, but also reports that the aircraft in question would have been over land.

tl;dr this isn't worth being worried about right now

I mean, if it WAS shot down, what happens?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




CommieGIR posted:

It's also the muddy season, right? So block up the road, unless you can clear it, that's it. You are going nowhere.

Yep, springtime is coming, and global warming doesn’t help.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

I only know their handle and no.

Still, interesting that they tried that one, really feels like they are throwing everything at a wall to see what sticks.

Not that I blame them.


Nenonen posted:

Speaking of which, just year ago Russia had an exercise for unplugging from the internet. I'm sure they did it just out of curiosity and not because they thought it might happen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-50902496

Some countries do that from time to time, but that's self-inflicted. It's very much something else when a neutral party screws with the foundation of the Internet (DNS and/or IP). It's extremely hazardous and thus cannot happen.

dominoeffect
Oct 1, 2013

Ridiculous how much koolaid the russian police drink: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499120917821149189?s=20&t=wD3PIc4N25Ohno33Rx8Isg

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Got raided today it seems, there are some photos of hundreds of metres long jams of metal wreckage.

I would like to see as many of these as can be poured in the thread, because the concept of the scale of these convoy massings changes a lot. Maybe at least they can be defined forensically :p

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

News:

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1499119611190599686

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

What the hell, this is the 4th already.
So it this accidentally-on-purpose, human incompetence (trigger happy sailors) or technical incompetence (missile systems going rogue and hitting the wrong target)?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Got raided today it seems, there are some photos of hundreds of metres long jams of metal wreckage.

This, combined with the fact that the Ukraine is reporting they took back Makariv makes me a little hopeful they'll be able to free up some units for the rest of the country

Kherson fell though.
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1499117021140815880?t=Vy4STiJ5XDWNq3NfaXjneA&s=19

And Ukraine still has air defenses
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499112501996400642?t=jy_Uq3ZoBBYyLqE6GBYv_w&s=19

Edit: misspelled a city name

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 21:42 on Mar 2, 2022

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/smod4real/status/1498969356084002816

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Waiting for the olympics to end might have hosed them very hard with global warming and the mud.

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Nenonen posted:

Can't think how or why. When Finnish airspace is violated, a jet is dispatched to identify the object. It will then be escorted out of airspace, if necessary. Usually these violations are brief, though, just a few minutes. A notice is then issued to Russia and the incident is publicized.

We get airspace violations from Swedish and NATO planes too, but air traffic between Mother Russia and Kaliningrad is the most common reason.

Flight goons: how does this poo poo just happen in 2022?

Like is it a part of the border where if you're on a slightly wrong bearing for a few minutes you're accidentally in Finland to the point where they call a jet in?

BoldFace
Feb 28, 2011

Hiro Protagonist posted:

I mean, if it WAS shot down, what happens?

They still haven't located the missing fighter jet. Footage of the burning wreckage of the crashed copter was released earlier. The weather appears to be rather bad.

https://youtu.be/vam5SuONNnA

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1499080826599919633?cxt=HHwWosCy8beE580pAAAA

Vorenus
Jul 14, 2013

Hiro Protagonist posted:

I mean, if it WAS shot down, what happens?

There will be angry words and nothing else.

Pablo Bluth posted:

So it this accidentally-on-purpose, human incompetence (trigger happy sailors) or technical incompetence (missile systems going rogue and hitting the wrong target)?
Given Russia's performance so far, you can probably chalk it up to both all of the above and none of the above.

Hiro Protagonist
Oct 25, 2010

Last of the freelance hackers and
Greatest swordfighter in the world

BoldFace posted:

They still haven't located the missing fighter jet. Footage of the burning wreckage of the crashed copter was released earlier. The weather appears to be rather bad.

https://youtu.be/vam5SuONNnA

If it was bad enough to get the Puma, I imagine it was bad enough to get the MiG.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

Alchenar posted:

The local counter-attack in Donbas was mentioned earlier but looks like it's been wildly successful. Not enormously sure of the wisdom of attacking East when every HOI4 playing armchair general has assumed they should be getting ready to try to break out West but presumably there's a plan there.
It's not necessarily a bad idea operationally. Attacking east isn't trying to breach the Russian frontier or anything (though hitting supply depots would be tempting). Instead, it can force the Russians to break contact and give Ukrainian forces time and space to disengage across that front and maneuver (perhaps west, for example).

I'm obviously speculating because we have barely any OSINT picture in the east of Ukraine, but superficially it's not a bad plan.

Kraftwerk posted:

...if Ukrainian civilians can quickly figure out how to steal a BTR or a T-80U I see no reason why we can't dump all these extra M1s the US Army doesn't even need on Ukraine and let them figure it out...Like how hard can it possibly be?
Driving takes about a week. Loading takes a day or two. Gunnery is both easy and hard. It's easy once you learn, but it takes a few weeks to learn those basics.

Maintenance takes the most experience. Even learning how to fix a thrown track will take a few hours the first time you do it. Some maintenance is done by removing the entire engine, which then requires a separate winch. Etc. etc.

It wouldn't be undoable--western Ukraine is big--but the juice may not be worth the squeeze compared to just arming multiple light infantry battalions with lots of Javelins and Stingers (and simliar).

Mr. Fall Down Terror posted:

it is iirc the only MBT that uses a turbine. it definitely will not run on bunker fuel.
The T-80 also uses a turbine, though later variants switched back to diesel due to the cost and maintenance required. An Abrams will drat near run on bunker fuel. JP8 (jet fuel) is definitely better--better performance, less wear and tear, etc.--but you can shove some awful poo poo into those things and they will run.


I'd be willing to bet the base numbers are inaccurate, but I wonder if they were clever enough to change the ratio of dead:wounded. If not (and "if" is doing a lot of work here), then Russian forces have suffered over 20,000 casualties in the first week. They had, what, 150,000 on Ukraine's border? That's simply unsustainable with more reinforcements (like: full mobilization more).

ZombieLenin posted:

The exact composition and schematic layout of that depleted uranium armor is probably the most 'top secret' thing there is when it comes to the United States armored warfare forces.

To my knowledge, this is still accurate. Hull breaches were a Big Deal because you had to know who saw what and got the riot act read to you. But holy poo poo does depleted uranium stop an awful lot.

Threadkiller Dog posted:

New reading material issued: "How to serve mankind"

:golfclap:

Starks posted:

You cannot possibly believe this lol. Where did you hear/read this?

They've had mandatory conscription of ~200K young people per year for the past 8 years, with a 1 year tour. So probably closer to 1.5M, but each has served in the military for at least a year, and served on the Donbas front for 3 months of that. That's actually huge, because in long conflicts, guess when you're most likely to die? The first 3 months. Kind of like, "If you make it through the first 30 seconds of contact, you have a fighting chance", same goes for larg

These are all just historical numbers, of course, and every conflict is different, but it means many Ukrainians getting called up aren't completely green.

Morrow posted:

I don't know the armchair general ratio for occupation, but 200k seems insufficient for 40 million.

Hostile population? About 1:100. Russia would need at least 400K troops to occupy Ukraine. Even with those numbers you'll end up with cooks and mechanics guarding checkpoints, but it's doable. 150K with 20K casualties already? Not a chance. I still think Russia is most likely to win the conventional fight--they have a lot of artillery--like just a silly amount of it--but there is still hope.

Red posted:

https://twitter.com/rsiren2/status/1498799232177872906

I'm curious how many troops Ukraine's added this way.
Last public count yesterday was around 400.

Pookah posted:

That woman is doing so much good by her stoical kindness. She strokes that poor Russian soldiers shoulder to comfort him, she signals to the other person to stop filming him, she tells his mother that he is safe and fed.
It all feeds the narrative that Ukraine is kind and good and these Russian conscripts are afraid and alone and hungry.
I know it's partly propaganda, but its also decent people doing their best.
I was struck by the same thing. I don't think she intended it to be propaganda: she's just a genuinely good human being who recognizes that poor young man was put into an awful situation.

Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president

That's kinda gettin up there??

El Perkele
Nov 7, 2002

I HAVE SHIT OPINIONS ON STAR WARS MOVIES!!!

I can't even call the right one bad.

OAquinas posted:

Yes, stage a provocation when both nations are debating joining NATO. That will work out towards your goal of...*checks notes* limiting the expansion of NATO.

TBH Russia p. much considers both countries to throw in with NATO in any conflict and they're both EU members. They do not consider FIN or SWE neutral parties and I doubt them joining NATO would really change Russia's calculus.

That said, Russian planes entering either country's airspace is situation as usual.

Answers Me
Apr 24, 2012

Putting any uncertainties about accuracy aside for a moment, that has to be a shitload more than they ever could have expected, goddamn

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

mdemone posted:

Flight goons: how does this poo poo just happen in 2022?

Like is it a part of the border where if you're on a slightly wrong bearing for a few minutes you're accidentally in Finland to the point where they call a jet in?

Yes, also testing/mapping the air defenses, response times etc. Russia "accidentally" breaches airspace a lot.

Burning_Monk
Jan 11, 2005
Mad, Bad, and Dangerous to know

Sad, also hahahahaha!

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep
Six thousand means a lot of these Russians are just getting caught out unsupported and getting massacred. How hellish.

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever


God can you imagine the squabbling back at gestapo HQ over who gets to rough her up

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Brave brave brave. There's a true hero of the Soviet Union, Putin you loving fascist.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Blitz of 404 Error posted:

That's kinda gettin up there??

quote:

As of July 19, 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Defense casualty website, there were 4,431 total deaths (including both killed in action and non-hostile) and 31,994 wounded in action (WIA) as a result of the Iraq War.

So, yeah.

The different killed / wounded ratio is probably because the Russians are getting drone struck vs. American soldiers facing small arms or small grade explosions while wearing body armor in armored vehicles.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Answers Me posted:

Putting any uncertainties about accuracy aside for a moment, that has to be a shitload more than they ever could have expected, goddamn

In the Soviet-Afghan war the total number of Red Army soldiers KIA (not dead of disease) was less than 10,000

Less than 200 lost tanks

But a poo poo ton of lost helicoptes.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Despera posted:

Waiting for the olympics to end might have hosed them very hard with global warming and the mud.

They may have been genuinely hosed over by that, the US intel leaks, and Zelenskyi stalling.

Kavros posted:

I would like to see as many of these as can be poured in the thread, because the concept of the scale of these convoy massings changes a lot. Maybe at least they can be defined forensically :p

One was posted here earlier:

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

mdemone posted:

Flight goons: how does this poo poo just happen in 2022?

Like is it a part of the border where if you're on a slightly wrong bearing for a few minutes you're accidentally in Finland to the point where they call a jet in?

It's deliberate, they poke Sweden and Finland every so often to remind them who is boss. Not a good week to do it though. You may have noticed that Russia is hamfisted at coersive diplomacy and prone to miscalculation.

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

Just be glad they didnt beat her up.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

El Perkele posted:

TBH Russia p. much considers both countries to throw in with NATO in any conflict and they're both EU members. They do not consider FIN or SWE neutral parties and I doubt them joining NATO would really change Russia's calculus.

That said, Russian planes entering either country's airspace is situation as usual.

Russian planes "blunder" into Norway's (a NATO member) airspace quite often as well. It's more or less business as usual.

cant cook creole bream
Aug 15, 2011
I think Fahrenheit is better for weather

How many Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives to achieve this? Should be quite a few less, right?

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Zhanism posted:

Just be glad they didnt beat her up.

Maybe she can share a cell with those 12-year-old children who got jailed yesterday.

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

MikeC posted:

It's definitely on the high side for 5 days. The truth is though that when you don't have crippling levels of superiority in airpower to plough 90 percent of the resistance before hand, war is still hard. Especially when you seem to be making it up as you go along and lead units are bumbling down the road expecting no resistance.

It is obvious now that this invasion was adhoc in the extreme. The Russians were probably telling the truth in that they had no intentions of invading until a few weeks before the launch. It explains the lack of logistics with units being thrown in with a few days of fuel and food only. It explains the lack of communications equipment with higher headquarters because there were no higher headquarters with an actual plan. It explains why the conscripts had no clue what was going on even as they rolled into Ukrainian territory and that they were still on exercise.

Sometime in February, something changed probably with Zelensky not budging an inch on negotiations and Putin thought to roll the dice. It seems likely now that they were 100% riding on that the failed air assault to take Kyiv on the first nday. Move in fast behind missile strikes, fly in the troops and take out the government and the troops on the borders just roll in after the UA was told the government and military command is neutralized.

The Russians are obviously fixing this situation up now and relying on what we knew was their strength all along. Artillery, lots of it, and a liberal use of it.

They had decided at the latest in January; none of the demands were realistic and it’s becoming clearer that there is nothing short of giving the entire eastern part of Ukraine as well as most of the coast would have stopped this war.

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"

Ynglaur posted:

It's not necessarily a bad idea operationally. Attacking east isn't trying to breach the Russian frontier or anything (though hitting supply depots would be tempting). Instead, it can force the Russians to break contact and give Ukrainian forces time and space to disengage across that front and maneuver (perhaps west, for example).

I'm obviously speculating because we have barely any OSINT picture in the east of Ukraine, but superficially it's not a bad plan.


Yeah if you look at the map Ukraine have put a highly mobile force in a position where it could theoretically attack the supply lines of the Russian army attacking Kharkiv. If the Russians were competent you could see this as a way to force them to disengage from the siege in order to restructure their lines.

If the Russians were competent.

a pipe smoking dog fucked around with this message at 21:51 on Mar 2, 2022

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

It is incredibly depressing if those numbers are true. 5000 people dead on one side alone. Even if the goal is accomplished it just feels so meaningless.

Like I know people are cheering for Russian defeat but each one is a tragedy.

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015


Can someone translate what's on her signs?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

ImpAtom posted:

It is incredibly depressing if those numbers are true. 5000 people dead on one side alone. Even if the goal is accomplished it just feels so meaningless.

Like I know people are cheering for Russian defeat but each one is a tragedy.

If the goal is accomplished, it will only lead to more death for years to come.

pippy
May 29, 2013

CRIMES

Are those Nuclear Aliens? I guess the war really did scare off those aliens that were just about to reveal themselves.

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OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Answers Me posted:

Putting any uncertainties about accuracy aside for a moment, that has to be a shitload more than they ever could have expected, goddamn

Considering they were banking on a 2 week war where the opposition just falls apart...yeah.

Of course, Russian command also could give two shits about soldier deaths, so....

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