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cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Are there any more turns left on the screw when it comes to sanctions?

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cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




KitConstantine posted:

:siren: BIG DEAL :siren:

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1499438385240461313?t=qqa_-YaJklhKjAtNrWTPNA&s=19

Assuming Putin follows through. And this isn't just a way to get non combatants out so he can strike even harder

I’m expecting a Grozny here, personally. He’ll declare that everyone who has decided to stay must be a combatant, and will intensify city fire.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

cr0y posted:

Are there any more turns left on the screw when it comes to sanctions?

Oil and Gas, but EU countries are concerned about doing so.


https://twitter.com/AndrewScheidl/status/1499385584028110848?s=20&t=u-kc_2B2T6Qeg5RwaLORfA

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



KitConstantine posted:

:siren: BIG DEAL :siren:

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1499438385240461313?t=qqa_-YaJklhKjAtNrWTPNA&s=19

Assuming Putin follows through. And this isn't just a way to get non combatants out so he can strike even harder

The only downside for Russian is that it would allow some :airquote:Nazis:airquote: to escape :airquote:denazification:airquote:, and it's not like they actually care about achieving that objective. Apart from that, I really don't see any reason not to go for it earnestly.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

cr0y posted:

Are there any more turns left on the screw when it comes to sanctions?

Europe is still paying Russia like a billion euros per day for gas and oil. Problem is they'd have to endure great pains to cut it off and I'm not entirely sure there's political will for that.

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

It will probably just be a Syrian "ceasefire". Keep dropping bombs and then scream bloody murder when they shoot back

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Hmm if only some major political party hadn't cozied up to Russia/used a nothingburger on Ukraine to tie up there funding. Alas, it must of been the Democrats as the records from this time period have long been lost. No need to look deeper into it.

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


KitConstantine posted:

:siren: BIG DEAL :siren:

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1499438385240461313?t=qqa_-YaJklhKjAtNrWTPNA&s=19

Assuming Putin follows through. And this isn't just a way to get non combatants out so he can strike even harder

Russia needs time to refuel the tanks.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Dante posted:

Also note that EU provides no military protection and is not a military alliance, that's why Moldova can apply and Austria can be a member.

That is not true, article 42.7 of the Treaty of the European Union is a mutual defense clause.

quote:

If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States
shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in
accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific
character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States.
Commitments and cooperation in this area shall be consistent with commitments under the
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which, for those States which are members of it, remains
the foundation of their collective defence and the forum for its implementation.

Xachariah
Jul 26, 2004

SaTaMaS posted:

Is there any sign that the UK will try to get back into the EU now that Europe is under increased threat and they look like patsies who fell for Putin's plan to restore russian dominance?

What on earth for? UK is still part of NATO which is a bigger stick than the EU as far as defensive pacts go, also it still has some nukes.

EU is mainly economic and UK not being in the EU hurts the average person a hundred percent more than the rich, which is good enough for the majority of the ruling class.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499391842986741764/photo/1

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy
Also sadly the UK labour leader that was railroaded, while good on almost everything else, is seemingly sympathetic to the NATO caused this war argument.

I'd love to be wrong on that, if any UKgoons want to correct me.

MonkeyLibFront
Feb 26, 2003
Where's the cake?

mlmp08 posted:

I think a lot of people including this post are oversimplifying SIGINT and targeting processes over several hundred kms against a force of varying levels of crypto ranging from none to proper unexpired crypto.

There’s this idea that some transmissions give a very solid understanding of force disposition and plans. But that’s easier said than done vs a moving, fighting enemy, especially when “listening” from very far away.

Not to mention: even when NATO finds an HQ element, ok? What affect does that have here and now?

You're moving the goal post here a little, it's gone from 10km to 100's.

I'm simplifying it because this is not a military minded forum or audience.

It's fairly easy to triangulate frequencies when static even when a HQ moves, once you know the frequencies they are operating on you then can track the movement.

A lot goes into frequency profiling as well, it builds up a picture of the force your facing. Battlegroup HQs don't operate that far from the forward line of own troops either, conventionally that can be passed down to the ISTAR part of a Battlegroup to either neutralise with fires or for recce elements to infiltrate.

We would be naive to think that EW teams aren't operating in Ukraine in order to find HQ & G4 elements in order to shape defence or counter attacks, local content attacks that have good SIGINT can be devastating.

Nazzadan
Jun 22, 2016



Peace talks with Gracie, my Russian Blue, have broken down. She put her paw under the door in what I thought was a gesture of good faith, but when I poked her beans she scratched me and retreated.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

[quote="Charlotte Hornets" post="521865049"]


When people said Russia was going in hard I didn't think that us what they meant.

Anubis
Oct 9, 2003

It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.
Fun Shoe

TheMadMilkman posted:

IKEA uses a lot of wood from Russian sources. I’m guessing those contracts are gone now.

Sorry for the aside but, IKEA is clearcutting the last European old growth forests in Romania and it's suppliers are killing the people trying to stop it: https://newrepublic.com/article/165354/ikea-romania-illegal-logging

selec
Sep 6, 2003

freeasinbeer posted:

Also sadly the UK labour leader that was railroaded, while good on almost everything else, is seemingly sympathetic to the NATO caused this war argument.

I'd love to be wrong on that, if any UKgoons want to correct me.

It’s not a very weird opinion to have:

https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1498491107902062592?s=21

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray

jaete posted:

"Not suspicious" jesus gently caress

Tells you all you need to know about the boundless cowardice of the UK authorities when it comes to anything related to Russia, Putin, oligarchs, etc

It could also be that he just died, at a very awkward and suspicious time. An autopsy should confirm one way or another.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

:staredog:

Very special military operation.

This is the most special military operation of all time. Maybe they were right to call it that and not a war :unsmith:

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010


You might want to NSFW that.

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005




Some sympathetic Russians need to start getting very creative with angle grinders out in bum gently caress Russia where they won't get caught...

Well except I imagine civilians also use those tracks

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




The Manliest Army in the world folks:

No food, no supplies, no Homo

:lol:

That country is a right wing farcical nightmare

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

freeasinbeer posted:

Also sadly the UK labour leader that was railroaded, while good on almost everything else, is seemingly sympathetic to the NATO caused this war argument.

I'd love to be wrong on that, if any UKgoons want to correct me.

I mean the current one is more keen on sabre rattling than our current gov. Corbyn is going "I don't like this, but there may be other reasons than just Russia is the worst". But It's probably going to be a bit weirder than that. Corbyn is a very comitted pacifist and, whilst you can disagree with that as much as you like, it's at least ethically explicable.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

KitConstantine posted:

The Russians destroyed the checkpoints blocking their advance on the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia - site of the protests blocking the road from before.

They now appear to firing on it with missles, with Ukr air defenses intercepting

Tagging :nws: as it's missiles being fired on the area around a goddamn nuclear plant, and down this thread has footage of the checkpoint being destroyed

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1499431117778309123?t=shP0WGGMTRmNBkCTha6J6Q&s=19

Quoting myself - personally I'm hoping it will stop them from continuing to shell the area immediately around a Nuclear Power Plant because jesus christ

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Play posted:

It could also be that he just died, at a very awkward and suspicious time. An autopsy should confirm one way or another.

This is the most special military operation of all time. Maybe they were right to call it that and not a war :unsmith:
I bet he just killed himself when he saw the SWIFT writing on the Rus' oil wall. :shrug:

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

The opinion pieces published in RIA put that to bed pretty soundly, imo. This is a war to reestablish the Russian empire, and they don't give two shits about NATO, beyond how to dismantle it. The thing that flipped them out in prior was EU integration, NATO wasn't on the table until post 2014, and everyone knows that was a pipe dream.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



cinci zoo sniper posted:

I’m expecting a Grozny here, personally. He’ll declare that everyone who has decided to stay must be a combatant, and will intensify city fire.

Well that's depressing to think about...

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013


Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Mustang
Jun 18, 2006

“We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

He doesn't appear to actually say this in the article, not surprising considering it's the New York Post though.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

MonkeyLibFront posted:

You're moving the goal post here a little, it's gone from 10km to 100's.

No, I am not. I am talking about how a lot of the Russian radios that are shown unencrypted in videos etc are short-range tactical radios that often have ranges of 10 km or 20 km or whatever. I am also referencing the fact that US/NATO SIGINT assets are hundreds of km away (your rivet joints, etc). I am talking about two different types of people, one being the people broadcasting and the other being people hundreds of km away collecting.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
I’ve been out of commission for a day - what’s the situation look like right now?

selec
Sep 6, 2003

freeasinbeer posted:

The opinion pieces published in RIA put that to bed pretty soundly, imo. This is a war to reestablish the Russian empire, and they don't give two shits about NATO, beyond how to dismantle it. The thing that flipped them out in prior was EU integration, NATO wasn't on the table until post 2014, and everyone knows that was a pipe dream.

I don’t see how Kissinger, Chomsky and Mearshimer, three dudes who would not agree on much else, all agree on this without considering it. Doesn’t seem like those three are likely targets of a concerted propaganda effort.

I just don’t think any understanding of this that doesn’t start in the early 90s does much justice to explaining what is going on. That’s not ancient history, that’s the material backdrop for how we got here.

Like, the broad consensus on the Treaty of Versailles laying fundamental groundwork for WWII was not a broad consensus for quite a while. I suspect that this is a similar case, that with distance and cooled passions the foundations will be much more recognizable and generally agreed-on.

selec fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Mar 3, 2022

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005




Good Lord if it wasn't for the nukes the United States would absolutely dismantle this military in like I don't know 3 days?

Sereri
Sep 30, 2008

awwwrigami

cr0y posted:

Good Lord if it wasn't for the nukes the United States would absolutely dismantle this military in like I don't know 3 days?

Which is exactly why they have nukes

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog



Sorry Boris they stole your fuckstick

Tezzeract
Dec 25, 2007

Think I took a wrong turn...

In a sense, I don't blame US politicians for picking Liberal Hegemony as the default foreign policy.

Imagine some cranky old 'Cold War' guy told you that Great Power Politics is still relevant and that you had to respect the borders of autocratic countries. And the new guy said that's nonsense, ignore the old rules. You could just promote democratic regime change for world peace and global prosperity because you're a superhero and you get better election results because you stand up to bullies/nazis. It's almost a non choice.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



I mean Russia is a massive place so realistically a war would take way longer than that, but yeah I feel pretty confident about NATO engaging with these guys if it ever came to it right now

Of course that would also very likely mean the end of the modern world, so let's not do that

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

cr0y posted:

Good Lord if it wasn't for the nukes the United States would absolutely dismantle this military in like I don't know 3 days?

The US would take some time to get everything into place but after that yeah, they would absolutely steamroll it.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

selec posted:

I don’t see how Kissinger, Chomsky and Mearshimer, three dudes who would not agree on much else, all agree on this without considering it.

That's because they are all racist pieces of poo poo.

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Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

SaTaMaS posted:

Is there any sign that the UK will try to get back into the EU now that Europe is under increased threat and they look like patsies who fell for Putin's plan to restore russian dominance?

Brexiteers still in charge along with a WAR!! to keep the distractions going post covid (it's still going btw), so i don't see any change till 2024 at the earliest.

Even starting to get in again will be a decade (probably three) in the making and that's being a drunk optimist... it's too much to say here but go with ''NO!'' for the next thirty years.

And here i am patiently waiting for my Northern Ireland to rejoin with Éire somewhere down the line. :guinness:

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