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a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

KitConstantine posted:

This is something I think is being under-discussed right now. It's right at the beginning of planting season and Ukraian farmers are too busy harvesting tanks and fighting Russians to do any sort of planting. I also doubt they all have their full complement of seed for the season either.

Likely their growing season is long enough that in some areas they're able to get two harvests off a year. This year they'll be lucky to get one. This is also assuming that artillery strikes haven't damaged any equipment, and they there will be able bodied men available for planting, tillage, spraying, and harvest. Yields are gonna be way lower this year no matter what even if seed gets in the ground, and once the ground firms up any planting could get torn up by loving war machines. Or burned at harvest

What little makes it to harvest is probably gonna be kept for domestic consumption. Even a delayed planting season is going to be a disaster for much of the world. Good prices are going to go up *everywhere*

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1499468070699646976?t=Hf0guBwr2sX7YRoP_5u_bA&s=19

There also was a credible sounding Twitter thread in Russian that, among other things, mentioned Russian reliance of imported seed potatoes and how sanctions might impact that.

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TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Llamadeus posted:

Wikipedia has Soviet deaths for the entire Soviet-Afghan war at 14,400 and 26,000 (official number and outside estimate respectively) so 9000 in a week would be quite a speedrun if true.

They weren't fighting a modern, well equipped army in Agfhanistan

Ethics_Gradient
May 5, 2015

Common misconception that; that fun is relaxing. If it is, you're not doing it right.

VorpalBunny
May 1, 2009

Killer Rabbit of Caerbannog

The #4 symbol, what's that from?

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

KitConstantine posted:

stronger safety guarantees like outside observers from China or India.

lol lmao

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

khwarezm posted:

For context, was anybody this high up killed in the Soviet/Russian campaigns in Afghanistan and Chechnya?

3 Generals died in Afghanistan

In Chechnya according to this https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A...%B0%D0%B7%D0%B5

1st War
2 Generals of Armed forces
2 Generals of MVD Internal Army (Cops/National Guard)

2nd War
5 of Armed Forces
5 of MVD

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004


Please tell me The Ghost of Ukraine is creating memes while his aircraft, The Piss Tape, is being maintained.

Threadkiller Dog
Jun 9, 2010

fatherboxx posted:

3 Generals died in Afghanistan

In Chechnya according to this https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A...%B0%D0%B7%D0%B5

1st War
2 Generals of Armed forces
2 Generals of MVD Internal Army (Cops/National Guard)

2nd War
5 of Armed Forces
5 of MVD

1:7000 general to dead ratio in afghanistan hmm. 1:9000 would be an improvement, great work everyone

e: poo poo i cant count. Its over 1:8000. I retract my commendation

Threadkiller Dog fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Mar 3, 2022

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Cimber posted:

WHo says they are stalled. Someone linked a very interesting video analysis earlier in the day, and the guy in that said this looks like typical Russian military operations. They are 'stalled' in their forward bases/depots as they prepare, refuel and rearm, as well as the areas they are 'stalled' in around Kiev is the range for their arty and missile launchers.

Yes, I'm sure this is what's happening.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Play posted:

Maybe it's foolish but I think the Ukrainian numbers of Russian troops killed are broadly accurate, that is, very close to what they are reporting. They are in the best position to know, and I realize that it is a propaganda opportunity to overstate it but I think remaining trustworthy in terms of information is more important. Basically if you do vastly overstate the numbers, which are then proven false, that would be a loss of morale and credibility. Not to mention that there have been some indications that western intelligence agrees, more or less, with their assessments.

The numbers just don't make any sense, is the thing. They can't really be falsified because no one is going to trust Russia to accurately report on its own losses either.

Also, actual Western intelligence estimates are no where what Ukraine has claimed.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




It's very clear that Russia was not pleased with Kazakhstan not responding to their lighting of the beacons, so could this be Kazakhstan preparing for a possible retaliatory strike from Russia?

I'm not saying Putin's going to declare war on the rest of the former Soviet Socialist Republics, but if he's seriously still planning an invasion of Finland after this utter fiasco he's stupid and delusional enough to try.

TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Mar 3, 2022

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Cimber posted:

WHo says they are stalled. Someone linked a very interesting video analysis earlier in the day, and the guy in that said this looks like typical Russian military operations. They are 'stalled' in their forward bases/depots as they prepare, refuel and rearm, as well as the areas they are 'stalled' in around Kiev is the range for their arty and missile launchers.

Even if official Russian numbers are correct (which I doubt) this not s typical campaign. They lost more people in a week than compared to a likewise week in Afghanistan, both Chechen wars, Syria

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Vox Nihili posted:

The numbers just don't make any sense, is the thing. They can't really be falsified because no one is going to trust Russia to accurately report on its own losses either.

Also, actual Western intelligence estimates are no where what Ukraine has claimed.

Western intelligence as either said "Yeah they are pretty close" or has posted numbers that are still insanely high.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
probably another wave of instability in Egypt/Tunisia etc. countries that are dependent on subsidised grain

China can't be having much fun either looking at a year of high commodity prices, austerity, debt reduction etc.

Kazakhstan might do well out of surging wheat/corn prices curiously enough

spacetoaster
Feb 10, 2014

Djarum posted:

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1499450525724598274

First signs of US pre positioning hardware, which I don't have to really say is not a good sign.

https://www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewPressRelease/Article/2943642/press-release-exercise-saber-strike-22-begins/

Saber Strike 22 is set to begin Feb. 28, with participants moving personnel and equipment into place now. The exercise runs through March 18.

Held every two years since 2010, Saber Strike 22 includes approximately 13,000 participants from 13 nations. Exercise activities will occur across Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia.

Saber Strike is scheduled during winter to demonstrate the ability to operate in austere conditions. Training activities this year will include:

Tactical road march through Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia
Multiple live-fire and force-on-force exercises
Rail operations from Germany to Lithuania
Aerial resupply
Multiple air defense live fires on land and sea
Newest M-SHORAD Stryker based-platform debuts in Estonia
Air, ground and sea lines of communication established through Denmark and Sweden
Air assaults
V Corps will provide command and control of the exercise. Other U.S. Army participants include 1st Air Cavalry Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division; 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division; 2nd Cavalry Regiment; 7th Army Training Command; 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command;12th Combat Aviation Brigade; 21st Theater Support Command; 41st Field Artillery Brigade; Joint Multinational Readiness Center; U.S. Army National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve.

Saber Strike also includes participation from United States Air Forces in Europe – Air Forces Africa, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Europe and Africa and NATO.

Training events like Saber Strike 22 are planned well in advance, are not connected to any current or ongoing operations, are a prime example of our collective capabilities and demonstrate that NATO allies and partners stand stronger together.

ravenkult
Feb 3, 2011


Yeah the tanks are preparing and refueling in the middle of the road, on a 15km convoy formation.

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



Shes Not Impressed posted:

It's not an issue with discussing the war. The issue I have is making generalizations and alarming predictions while only having access to public knowledge that anyone else does.
The information is probably outdated before it even gets to the public anyway.

I get that war and conflict is catnip for military strategists but it is insufferable at times.

I understand why posts about what may or may not be happening strategically would be insufferable. My gut reaction at any "combat footage" that gets posted is revulsion at it war being voyeuristic, and man there is a lot of it. I don't think posters talking about the big picture are looking at this like a big table top game divorced of human costs, similarly I don't think people posting videos of helicopters being shot down and tanks firing into buildings are doing it because they just want to be entertained or titilated. I think lots of people just want to know and understand what is going on with a hope to see if they can see if some kind of end to this can arrive soon and engage with the rapid deluge of news in whatever way they are comfortable.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

TulliusCicero posted:

It's very clear that Russia was not pleased with Kazakhstan not responding to their lighting of the beacons, so could this be Kazakhstan preparing for a possible retaliatory strike from Russia?

I'm not saying Putin's going to declare war on the rest of the former Soviet Socialist Republics, but if he's seriously still planning an invasion of Finland after this utter fissco he's stupid and delusional enough to try.

I think that even Putin would have to have enough military sense not to open another, completely separate war thousands of kilometers away from the currently ongoing massive war against a supposed ally in an area where the Chinese will almost certainly get really mad if it destabilizes.

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

TulliusCicero posted:

Is there really nothing we can do about Russia's Most Watched Cable News Network right in our own backyard?

There is but none of the options are great. I think one thing that could and frankly should be done is to make foreign ownership of media and news in particular illegal in the country which would cause Murdoch to have to divest immediately. You could do stuff like putting in limits of ownership amounts and percentage again as well.

If people in Fox News are on the Russian take, and let's be honest it is pretty evident that Russia has been heavily involved in Right Wing political parties around the world now for at least 20 years, it is probably worth burning some domestic intel sources to take out the cancer at home. Politically if there was any time to do it right now is it.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



ravenkult posted:

Yeah the tanks are preparing and refueling in the middle of the road, on a 15km convoy formation.

"It couldn't be that Russian logistics are trash and they have no coherent plan to supply and arm due to mass graft and untrained troops, it's all part of a brilliant trap to lure the enemy into complacency!" :shepface:

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

It's very clear that Russia was not pleased with Kazakhstan not responding to their lighting of the beacons, so could this be Kazakhstan preparing for a possible retaliatory strike from Russia?

I'm not saying Putin's going to declare war on the rest of the former Soviet Socialist Republics, but if he's seriously still planning an invasion of Finland after this utter fissco he's stupid and delusional enough to try.

I don't know. It seems much more likely that Kazakhstan is giving Russia help and just saying it isn't.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

TulliusCicero posted:

If Putin's seriously still planning an invasion of Finland after this utter fissco he's stupid and delusional enough to try.
Do we have any indicators that he may think twice about going through with that on account of 1) the NATO Taskforce 2) The SWIFT bans 3) The Ukraine quagmire or 4) the US preparing a mutual defense agreement with Finland? I'm of the feeling he doesn't have a real shot at it.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Kyiv(21:53). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

Belarus will be joining their Nazi masters in the war in the next few days. May coincide with the martial law order on Friday.

Let's hope for their quick capture or desertion.

Special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine destroyed 10 more enemy BMD in Hostomel. The battle for control over the city of Hostomel continues

It looks like they may have been provided with Intel that Belarus plans to Garrison the hostamel airport as their Beach head

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Eric Cantonese posted:

I don't know. It seems much more likely that Kazakhstan is giving Russia help and just saying it isn't.

Why would Kazakhstan do that and what help can they give?

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
If Putin opens a second front anywhere I think that would be enough for his current political allies in Russia to palace coup him. I doubt he can handle the political damage from such a further escalation.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

khwarezm posted:

If Putin opens a second front anywhere I think that would be enough for his current political allies in Russia to palace coup him. I doubt he can handle the political damage from such a further escalation.

What do you mean by second front? Can you just give us a little bit of clarification are you talking about invading Finland or landing at Odessa?

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

TulliusCicero posted:

"It couldn't be that Russian logistics are trash and they have no coherent plan to supply and arm due to mass graft and untrained troops, it's all part of a brilliant trap to lure the enemy into complacency!" :shepface:

In this twitter thread, we'll discuss Russian army observance of grooming standards, an underappreciated metric that can provide insight into warfighter capability 1/17

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

What do you mean by second front? Can you just give us a little bit of clarification are you talking about invading Finland or landing at Odessa?

People are talking about attacks on Finland and Kazakhstan very casually here.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Update RE: ceasefire and humanitarian corridor.

I've posted this guy before and you can go look at his profile, but he's connected in Ukrainian politics. I think his post makes it clear that Ukraine has their eyes wide open about the worth of Russia's word on such things

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1499475154342227989?t=39O-jCihe5QbDNwmdfap6w&s=19

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Sekenr posted:

Why would Kazakhstan do that and what help can they give?

Maybe some equipment? I don't know.

Kazahkstan's current leader needed Russian help earlier this year to quell domestic unrest. I imagine he owes Russia the kind of favors you can't welch out on.

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499476078783574019

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

I dunno

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1499469251534598149?cxt=HHwWisC5ld_Vl88pAAAA

Anubis
Oct 9, 2003

It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.
Fun Shoe

eXXon posted:

What makes you think that now is a good time to re-form Romania Mare?

Just that map that showed Russia's plan to invade Moldova, you know... little things like that?

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014

Djarum posted:

There is but none of the options are great. I think one thing that could and frankly should be done is to make foreign ownership of media and news in particular illegal in the country which would cause Murdoch to have to divest immediately. You could do stuff like putting in limits of ownership amounts and percentage again as well.

If people in Fox News are on the Russian take, and let's be honest it is pretty evident that Russia has been heavily involved in Right Wing political parties around the world now for at least 20 years, it is probably worth burning some domestic intel sources to take out the cancer at home. Politically if there was any time to do it right now is it.

FYI, Murdoch is an american citizen, naturalized in 1985.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Worth noting Russia has a history of abusing Interpol to go after and track dissidents.

Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



KitConstantine posted:

I've posted this guy before and you can go look at his profile, but he's connected in Ukrainian politics. I think his post makes it clear that Ukraine has their eyes wide open about the worth of Russia's word on such things

Such a terrible spot to be in as a Ukranian because, ignoring the chance at establishing these corridors would come at an unthinkable task, but as is being mentioned there is zero trust. Really hope the agreement for these corridors is a sign of progress and a complete ceasefire can come soon.

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!

Interpol is a garbage organization.

fuctifino
Jun 11, 2001

https://twitter.com/ukiswitheu/status/1499416397297987587

This happened today in Lithuania. Everyone rightfully regards our Foreign Secretary as the joke she is.

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014

the popes toes posted:

In this twitter thread, we'll discuss Russian army observance of grooming standards, an underappreciated metric that can provide insight into warfighter capability 1/17

Police your Mustache!

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Pookah
Aug 21, 2008

🪶Caw🪶





fatherboxx posted:

I have bought a giant bag of coffee beans and 2 litre can of olive oil because they could be the last ones I ever have; feeling strange to be in a historical moment when your country may turn to a pariah state status in a month.

This whole situation is just unbelievably terrible and surreal, I can't imagine how bad it is for ordinary people in Russia.
I'm on the western edge of Europe, and when I was going to the local shops today, all I could think about was what it would look like if there were tanks rolling down the streets, and shells hitting the buildings.
All these ordinary, peaceful towns and cities being destroyed because one evil old fool wants to bring back the past.
Stay safe and let's hope for better times goonfriend :unsmith:

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