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Small White Dragon
Nov 23, 2007

No relation.

mawarannahr posted:

Is Putin gay? He was married to a woman once.

His administration is very anti-LGBT

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Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013





I should have asked why is Kazakhstan dependant on russia? Based on what? Tokayev used external intervention to subdue his opposition, now that its subdued and Russia is in poo poo any step to help them puts them in Ru toxic poo poo with no gain

dominoeffect
Oct 1, 2013

the popes toes posted:

Airline software giant ends distribution service with Russia's Aeroflot, crippling carrier's ability to sell seats

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/air...sell-seats.html

I wonder if Aeroflot uses Sabre domestically? Tits up before but now, worse. On that front, I'm curious how western cloud providers might be evaluating their options. I'm very sure they don't want to get involved. Would not want to be doing IT stuff in Russia at the moment. "Yes, yes, I know comrade, I keep telling you, open up a ticket!"

In one of the aviation threads on twitter, someone mentioned that if Sabre pulls out then Aeroflot is really in trouble. Don't have the tweet handy and whether or not this is true, so it's to be taken with a grain of salt. But in any case, I would assume that Sabre is used in some capacity in Russia if they're announcing that they're pulling out.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

mawarannahr posted:

Is Putin gay? He was married to a woman once.

Putin has openly supported Anti-Gay groups, so unless he's like Peter Thiel, I doubt it.

In fact Putin's anti-gay stance and Christian ethnocentric views is part of why he is popular with the Alt-Right.

JerikTelorian
Jan 19, 2007



KitConstantine posted:

Lol okay, I'm gonna explain this for people who don't know farming.

Let me tell you right now there's no "telling US Farmers to plant more". I'm from a farming family - every farmer plants exactly as much as they are able to handle because farmers love making money. There are plenty of advancements in farm tech that have helped yield keep going up - precision planting/fertilizer/better pesticides/irrigation - but as the old chesnut goes they ain't making more land. There's a reason corn and wheat are called cash crops.

Theoretically some land that's being used for other things could be converted to cash crop, but it's almost certainly being used for other things because cash crops don't grow well there . Even if they did plant food crops on that land the yield wouldn't be nearly high enough to make up even a fraction of what's going to be lost. Also all the seeds for this planting season have been ordered, paid for, and in some cases are going into the ground right now. Where are they supposed to get more?

Farming is hard work, a blend of art and science, and involves it's own delicately balanced economy. There's no easy fix for this.

Fair! I appreciate the correction.

At least in my neck of the woods there is a long running story that Farmers are paid a lot of money to keep fields fallow and keep prices up through artificial scarcity. What (if anything) is the truth in this? I'm sure there are subsidies of a kind.

(Guess we're hosed food wise)

DOOMocrat
Oct 2, 2003

Grindr is a gay dating and hookup app making a tacky and vapid joke, which judging by experience with queer peers that use grindr, very on brand.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Nice to see RT shuttering here in the USA. They've been a nest of vipers forever, hiring the worst liars and grifters the nation over.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

Dante posted:

You have to read the posts I'm responding to. The first post was an answer to:

Ok sorry mate, I misunderstood. Thread moves too fast etc. I apologise

Grouchio posted:

Do we have any indicators that he may think twice about going through with that on account of 1) the NATO Taskforce 2) The SWIFT bans 3) The Ukraine quagmire or 4) the US preparing a mutual defense agreement with Finland? I'm of the feeling he doesn't have a real shot at it.

If the last... well, my entire life really, has taught me anything, it is that one should never underestimate the stupidity of people like Putin, and their capacity to make idiotic decisions

Finland and Sweden really need to join NATO, it has been demonstrated more than satisfactorily that nothing else suffices when it comes to Putin

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Small White Dragon posted:





(Not real, but funny.)

It's obviously fake, but the 69 retweets is a nice touch.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

dominoeffect posted:

But in any case, I would assume that Sabre is used in some capacity in Russia if they're announcing that they're pulling out.
Yeah, I figured the Sabre pullout would tank international seating but I was wondering if they also use it for domestic internal travel.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Sekenr posted:

I should have asked why is Kazakhstan dependant on russia? Based on what? Tokayev used external intervention to subdue his opposition, now that its subdued and Russia is in poo poo any step to help them puts them in Ru toxic poo poo with no gain

They're close allies under a number of treaties and organizations, major trading partners, and share the single largest land border in the world. Plus Tokayev does owe Putin a favor. "Dependant" may be too strong a word, and I don't know if Kazakhstan is gearing up to join Russia in Ukraine or not, but they tend to be pretty closely aligned geopolitically.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird
re: the nuclear reactors, losing cooling in a light-water reactor in an unplanned shutdown is still a catastrophe in the making, even if there's zero risk of it going prompt critical.

A large reactor is still producing megawatts of decay heat for days after. If the coolant runs dry, the core melts, and you get things like the hydrogen explosion at Fukushima if any water touches the red-hot fuel cladding. at the very least, it turns the reactor vessel and containment systems into an untouchable mess for centuries to come, and that's assuming there's no loss of core containment.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

mawarannahr posted:

Is Putin gay? He was married to a woman once.

He answered that some time ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1d7Llx4rm8

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

Morrow posted:

So invasion isn't the first option, it's the last option after a decade of critical failures to maintain the Russian sphere or pursue Putin's long-term goal of reintegrating the Soviet Union's core territories.

To add - This was also a 'now or never' moment. A lot of Russian equipment is getting to be 30 years old now, and the gen. pop demographics for able-bodied soldiers is declining. IMO Pooptin probably had some idea that his army was incompetent trash, but probably not this bad.


KitConstantine posted:

Lol okay, I'm gonna explain this for people who don't know farming.
There's no easy fix for this.

International shipping is still FUBAR'ed. Even if the US could whistle up 25% of the world's wheat supply, getting it anywhere is another thing entirely.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
He has two kids that look disturbingly like him

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

khwarezm posted:

People are talking about attacks on Finland and Kazakhstan very casually here.

I haven't read every post so not sure what this refers to, but I for one don't mean to talk of possible invasions of e.g. Finland in a casual way, not as such. I would say that Finland and Sweden need to join NATO right now, since unfortunately Putin simply cannot be trusted to not casually invade them otherwise.

I'm also not convinced at all that a palace coup against Putin is feasible any time soon.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

HolHorsejob posted:

re: the nuclear reactors, losing cooling in a light-water reactor in an unplanned shutdown is still a catastrophe in the making, even if there's zero risk of it going prompt critical.

A large reactor is still producing megawatts of decay heat for days after. If the coolant runs dry, the core melts, and you get things like the hydrogen explosion at Fukushima if any water touches the red-hot fuel cladding. at the very least, it turns the reactor vessel and containment systems into an untouchable mess for centuries to come, and that's assuming there's no loss of core containment.

Yeah this is the bigger issue. I don't know what the line for Ukrainian operators is, but ideally if the Russians are getting close the reactors should he shut down and cooling.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

mawarannahr posted:

Is Putin gay? He was married to a woman once.

Since Ukrainian witches have been confirmed to be operating in a combined arms role, we can assess with high confidence that Mr. Putin's dick is inactive. So how he swings really isn't important.

JerikTelorian
Jan 19, 2007



How are u posted:

Nice to see RT shuttering here in the USA. They've been a nest of vipers forever, hiring the worst liars and grifters the nation over.

Ted Rall is going to be so mad.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
The end of RT is fantastic; the question is whether there can be similar moves against the under-the-table funded propaganda entities that are used for the same purpose.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

TheRat posted:

That assumes american ratios which is probably far from accurate. These people aren't being killed by improvised explosives or small arms fire, they're being fried alive by drones and high tech weapons.

This got brought up before, but American ratios are closer to 1:8 or 1:10 in terms of killed:wounded.

fatherboxx posted:

I have bought a giant bag of coffee beans and 2 litre can of olive oil because they could be the last ones I ever have; feeling strange to be in a historical moment when your country may turn to a pariah state status in a month.

I hope you and your family are able to stay safe. Tyrants ruin their own countries too.

TheRat posted:

They weren't fighting a modern, well equipped army in Agfhanistan

They were also arguably winning until the US began equipping the mujahadeen with Stingers. Russian airmobile forces and attack helicopters were devastatingly effectively against infantry with light weapons.

mlmp08 posted:

the DOD brief just dropped and here is how they (don't) characterize it

I was not in military intelligence but in reconnaissance, but the semantics are important here. We're not providing "real-time targeting", which means we're not painting targets or having UAVs or whatever provide fire adjustments for Ukrainian artillery. It does sound like we're providing real-time tactical intelligence, which can be things like, "there's a T-72 at this 8-digit grid coordinate". (10-digit grid coordinates are accurate to within +/- 10m.)

Other milchat in the context of current news:
I've seen people mocking videos of e.g. a handful of Russian BMDs and a few squads of infantry going into cities. That's called reconnaissance, and yes it's risky and you're likely to lose a lot of scouts. I wouldn't take it as indication that the Russians are making poor tactical choices across the board. Before you roll an entire battalion (700-1200 soldiers) into an urban area, send in 30 to see if anything shoots back.

I agree with some of analysis that we shouldn't look too much into the stalled convoy. Move up combat elements, then establish bases of supply, then push up some more, then establish a base of supply, etc.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

JerikTelorian posted:

Fair! I appreciate the correction.

At least in my neck of the woods there is a long running story that Farmers are paid a lot of money to keep fields fallow and keep prices up through artificial scarcity. What (if anything) is the truth in this? I'm sure there are subsidies of a kind.

(Guess we're hosed food wise)

TL;DR: loving LOL. They may have some warped idea of the purpose of crop insurance. Crop insurance is something farmers pay for that says as long as they get everything in the ground by a certain date they have coverage if something catastrophic happens.

The below is all set up for easy math.

For example - you insure an acre of wheat for say 2 dollars/bushel (this varies depending on the commodity price at time of insurance purchase) for some average of all your past years yields - call it 50 bushel/acre. That means if you follow the rules - and farmers are closely monitored the entire planting, growing, and harvesting season by the insurance company to make sure they do - and something happens - hail storm, flood, swarm of locusts - the farmer gets a payout of 100/acre.

But the insurance company doesn't want to lose money, so insurance prices are much lower than market pricing. If only half your field gets hosed up and your yield is halved but the price is four times higher then you want to sell because you're making 200/acre anyway.

Also if you break any of the insurance company rules about reporting you get nothing. Also a lot of farmers in cash crop areas probably already locked in their insurance so they couldn't take advantage of the insurance price going up even if they wanted to.

In addition that wouldn't apply here anyway because prices are going to skyrocket. Everything farmers can squeeze off is gonna go to market because they're gonna make bank.

Crop subsidies work by paying farmers to plant things, not keep ground clear. Dairy has it's own subsidies and insurance but that's outside the scope of this discussion.

Edit: They may also not understand crop rotation - wheat and corn strip the soil of a lot of poo poo. We've gotten better at fertilizing and soil treatments but fields sometimes need a rest for a year - think it's up to 1 out of every 7 or so now. They may also be mistaking a field full of cover crop like winter wheat for a fallow field.

KitConstantine fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Mar 3, 2022

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug
https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1499423167630090255?s=20&t=aU3Ql0RQV8LOXc8qMDgtFQ

Again, Russia has thrown away so much soft power in this invasion, and then trashed the very image of them as a major military power.

This is both amazing and depressing.

Unkempt
May 24, 2003

...perfect spiral, scientists are still figuring it out...

JerikTelorian posted:

Ted Rall is going to be so mad.

https://twitter.com/TedRall/status/1499484386865160198?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

'Leftists'.

Celexi
Nov 25, 2006

Slava Ukraini!
Wasn't there some talk a while ago how newsmax was Russian funded?

uXs
May 3, 2005

Mark it zero!

jaete posted:

I haven't read every post so not sure what this refers to, but I for one don't mean to talk of possible invasions of e.g. Finland in a casual way, not as such. I would say that Finland and Sweden need to join NATO right now, since unfortunately Putin simply cannot be trusted to not casually invade them otherwise.

I'm also not convinced at all that a palace coup against Putin is feasible any time soon.

I've been thinking about that. How would you physically do it? He's presumably very well protected in normal times, the security at this point has to be insane.

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Small White Dragon posted:

His administration is very anti-LGBT
Which usually means they are extremely closeted.

Anubis
Oct 9, 2003

It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.
Fun Shoe

eXXon posted:

Joining the EU is a different matter from reunifying because Romania is a NATO member and having Russian troops stationed on NATO territory is a great way to start another, bigger war.
The poll referenced was specifically about reunification with Romania, not joining the EU.

If Russia doesn't recognize it and says they have no interest in doing so maybe their troops can just GTFO then.

eXXon posted:

There's no evidence that Russia wants to annex Moldova.

Who knows if they wanna annex it, we don't even know if they really wanna annex all of Ukraine. What we know is they're threatening invasion when it's already an important land boarder for getting refuges from the main crisis out.

eXXon posted:

(which is the eastern part, not northern)

I was referring to Finland and Sweden as those were the NORTHERN non-nato countries that have been getting the sabers rattled at them and have been talked about extensively in this thread, that you are currently posting in.

Anubis fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Mar 3, 2022

Small White Dragon
Nov 23, 2007

No relation.

Despera posted:

He has two kids that look disturbingly like him

I don't actually think Putin is gay, but when you have that kind of money, you can easily just pay for an egg donor and a surrogate

...Anyway I'm sure there is some alternative universes where this is true:

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

uXs posted:

I've been thinking about that. How would you physically do it? He's presumably very well protected in normal times, the security at this point has to be insane.

Its not likely possible unless the military gets fed up. Putin has very carefully curated who is allowed around him and allowed into leadership positions. Almost everyone is hand picked and vetted by people Putin trusts if not Putin himself.

dominoeffect
Oct 1, 2013

Ynglaur posted:

This got brought up before, but American ratios are closer to 1:8 or 1:10 in terms of killed:wounded.

I hope you and your family are able to stay safe. Tyrants ruin their own countries too.

They were also arguably winning until the US began equipping the mujahadeen with Stingers. Russian airmobile forces and attack helicopters were devastatingly effectively against infantry with light weapons.

I was not in military intelligence but in reconnaissance, but the semantics are important here. We're not providing "real-time targeting", which means we're not painting targets or having UAVs or whatever provide fire adjustments for Ukrainian artillery. It does sound like we're providing real-time tactical intelligence, which can be things like, "there's a T-72 at this 8-digit grid coordinate". (10-digit grid coordinates are accurate to within +/- 10m.)

Other milchat in the context of current news:
I've seen people mocking videos of e.g. a handful of Russian BMDs and a few squads of infantry going into cities. That's called reconnaissance, and yes it's risky and you're likely to lose a lot of scouts. I wouldn't take it as indication that the Russians are making poor tactical choices across the board. Before you roll an entire battalion (700-1200 soldiers) into an urban area, send in 30 to see if anything shoots back.

I agree with some of analysis that we shouldn't look too much into the stalled convoy. Move up combat elements, then establish bases of supply, then push up some more, then establish a base of supply, etc.

Cool! Appreciate you sharing the military perspectives, I really enjoy reading them. Two questions for you: 1) How accurate are 8-digit grid coordinates if 10-digit ones are +/- 10m? 2) I do wonder how useful sending recon squads into Kharkiv like a couple of days ago is? I see what you're saying, but I would imagine that russians would have known that Kharkiv is well-defended and wouldn't send a couple squads to their death, would they?

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Majorian posted:

They're close allies under a number of treaties and organizations, major trading partners, and share the single largest land border in the world. Plus Tokayev does owe Putin a favor. "Dependant" may be too strong a word, and I don't know if Kazakhstan is gearing up to join Russia in Ukraine or not, but they tend to be pretty closely aligned geopolitically.

OMG I didn't notice that its you Marjorian posting.

Russia treaties mean trash right now, especially to former russian empire nations, favour to Putin is laughable. He helped, and now in no place to punish for promises broken. Or help if sanctions wrath will fall upon you if you make a move supporting Russia. There is absolutely nothing for KZ to gain supporting Russia and hell to lose.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



How are u posted:

Nice to see RT shuttering here in the USA. They've been a nest of vipers forever, hiring the worst liars and grifters the nation over.

Speaking of which when is Candace Owens becoming a Russian citizen?

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

I'm pretty sure (well as much a random dumb nerd can be) that China has Putin on a clock. The longer this drags out - the more this becomes a war and not a liberation(nexation) of lost territory and ethnic brethren - the more unhappy China will be. They have him by the scrotum at this point - and I hardly think they'll accept having Europe militarized and increasingly angry, the world economy heading towards a massive crash even if they get Russian exports for cheap and a whacky new vassal. Russia under Putin is not a good buffer state, ally or vassal for China. They like stable and predictable.

I also think Europe will not accept Kyiv turning into a new Grozny and Ukraine either getting conquered by Russia or turned into a 5 to 10 year protracted special military operation. Everyone talks about the US and NATO - and yes, the US can out-war anyone on Earth and has military power projection ability next to none. However, they're still playing global super-power politics, even if the sanctions are hardball to show Putin just how globalization has changed the game, and that cold war spheres of influence do not apply to Russia.

But Europe has gotten the feels for Ukraine now. The plucky underdog that was once part of the scary neighborhood gang, but now wants to hang out with the Euro club, has been assaulted by a bully and is putting up one heck of a fight. If Ukraine had been run over in a weekend or had a sleazey pseudo-dictator running the show, things would be different. Europe is cheering now - volunteers are pouring in. Germany is militarizing. The French have an opportunity to act like a major power, engaging in grand diplomacy (I see Macron going through the motions possibly leading to a 'casus belli' for an intervention). Turkey has found a way to get back goodwill and influence in Europe. EU leaders are almost frothing with delight at being able to present a united front for once, aroused with jingoistic fervor to the point where some Eurocrat accidentally promised gifting fighter jets to Ukraine.

If Putin starts winning - Europe might get the gang back together and intervene. I am guessing with France and Poland leading the charge, vengeful Dutch not far behind. Not to mention the secretly giddy Germans eyeing an opportunity to get that Russian gas after all. I'm not sure the US would join that war - and I think China wouldn't mind seeing Europe accidentally make NATO a relic of the past, and indirectly humiliating both Russia and the US.

If Putin doesn't win, but stays in the game (and not razing Ukraine to the ground), extending the conflict by sending more troops and getting back on the infowar track and taking full advantage of US cynicism and GoP Putinfans - then I think China will stab him in the back. They don't want an unstable, warmongering, destitute Russia making the new Silk Road a muddy, bloody mess.

Everyone is focusing on the old cold war rivalry - USA and Russia. But I think Europe and China will be the ones to step in if the Ukrainians don't just deliver the knock-out punch on their own by humiliating Putin so hard, that he gets replaced and the whole mess blamed on him and some conspiracy (time for the good old army purges of old!).

There's more than NATO, nuclear deterrence and cold war electric bugaloo to this war and what it might lead to.

PederP fucked around with this message at 22:21 on Mar 3, 2022

Sir Bobert Fishbone
Jan 16, 2006

Beebort

JerikTelorian posted:

Fair! I appreciate the correction.

At least in my neck of the woods there is a long running story that Farmers are paid a lot of money to keep fields fallow and keep prices up through artificial scarcity. What (if anything) is the truth in this? I'm sure there are subsidies of a kind.

(Guess we're hosed food wise)

There's this program: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/conservation-programs/conservation-reserve-program/

quote:

CRP is a land conservation program administered by the Farm Service Agency (FSA). In exchange for a yearly rental payment, farmers enrolled in the program agree to remove environmentally sensitive land from agricultural production and plant species that will improve environmental health and quality.

The_Franz
Aug 8, 2003

CommieGIR posted:

Its not likely possible unless the military gets fed up. Putin has very carefully curated who is allowed around him and allowed into leadership positions. Almost everyone is hand picked and vetted by people Putin trusts if not Putin himself.

And even those people only speak to him from the other end of the world's longest table

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

TulliusCicero posted:

Speaking of which when is Candace Owens becoming a Russian citizen?

She's firmly in the "eliminate with extreme prejudice once no longer useful" category

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Sekenr posted:

I should have asked why is Kazakhstan dependant on russia? Based on what? Tokayev used external intervention to subdue his opposition, now that its subdued and Russia is in poo poo any step to help them puts them in Ru toxic poo poo with no gain

It's subdued, for now, and should it be come un-subdued, you think Tokayev has suddenly developed the capability to subdue it again without help?

Anubis
Oct 9, 2003

It's hard to keep sand out of ears this big.
Fun Shoe

Ynglaur posted:

This got brought up before, but American ratios are closer to 1:8 or 1:10 in terms of killed:wounded.

I also am of the mindset that, given russia's inability to provide basic support in the form of fuel and food, it's quite possible many more are needlessly dying from wounds that a... let's just say less of a poo poo show... invasion would manage to save. I wouldn't be overly shocked if the number was closer to 1:4 or 1:3 given the types of engagements and the lack of support thus far.

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Ciprian Maricon
Feb 27, 2006



dominoeffect posted:

Cool! Appreciate you sharing the military perspectives, I really enjoy reading them. Two questions for you: 1) How accurate are 8-digit grid coordinates if 10-digit ones are +/- 10m? 2)

grid squares work on a multiple of 10, the original poster can correct me if wrong but i understood 8 digit coordinates to define a 10 meter box on a map, 6, digits 100, etc

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