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Somewhat tangential but what quantity of "semi-luxury" (?) imported goods like coffee, curry powder, graphics cards, things that while not necessary to daily survival are taken for granted in modern life above the poverty line, would Russia have stockpiled in country? Because with the sanctions and the Ruble crash they'll be facing severe shortages on these things they can't produce themselves soon, and that'll lead to a noticeable drop in quality of life for many people. While this may be offset by social media bans, and the people most affected are not Putin's base, the consequences of the war are going to affect the daily lives of even apolitical Russians very soon, probably in a very severe way.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:51
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Gros Tarla posted:So, what happens when it collapses? They pack up their poo poo and go back home to try again in a decade? If I recall correctly, they have to sell all of their houses and hotels in order to try and pay their debts.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:That Bellingcat prediction reminds me of the JP Morgan prediction of a 35% GDP contraction for Russia. I suspect it's overly optimistic (from a pro-Ukraine standpoint). But I would still think the effects of the sanctions and other moves have taken some kind of toll. Just to be technical, that's was a 35% quarter contraction, and 8% or so annual i.e. if it continued for the whole year it would be 35%.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:53
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Eric Cantonese posted:That Bellingcat prediction reminds me of the JP Morgan prediction of a 35% GDP contraction for Russia. I suspect it's overly optimistic (from a pro-Ukraine standpoint). But I would still think the effects of the sanctions and other moves have taken some kind of toll. Fortunately, it's a prediction that will bear out quite soon. I was rather skeptical when I saw it, but we'll know soon whether it was based on anything other than optimism and speculation.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:53
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CommieGIR posted:No Fly Zone is a no go, but do agree with the polls: We need to bite the bullet and cut off Russian gas and oil. Maybe Biden's hoping to get the Iran Deal back on so he can mitigate the shock of that announcement some. It'd take a while for Iranian oil to make a difference, and it couldn't "replace" Russian stock on the global market, but it'd probably help psychologically if nothing else.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:53
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Telsa Cola posted:The army or the country because god drat. Yes. Longer answer is army first, then client states, then possibly government.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:53
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E Depois do Adeus posted:Somewhat tangential but what quantity of "semi-luxury" (?) imported goods like coffee, curry powder, graphics cards, things that while not necessary to daily survival are taken for granted in modern life above the poverty line, would Russia have stockpiled in country? Because with the sanctions and the Ruble crash they'll be facing severe shortages on these things they can't produce themselves soon, and that'll lead to a noticeable drop in quality of life for many people. While this may be offset by social media bans, and the people most affected are not Putin's base, the consequences of the war are going to affect the daily lives of even apolitical Russians very soon, probably in a very severe way. i remember a russian poster in this thread already noted that they had bought a big bag of coffee because they figured it would be the last they'd see for a while
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Mar 4, 2022 22:54
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Young Freud posted:https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499807262084325379?s=20&t=GDdKLs_u4JaA3p5E4WZ9_Q I'll believe this only after it happens. I want Ukraine to win and yeah they've been kicking rear end and the Russian army is making GBS threads razors in bed but I'd sooner expect NATO to send Zelensky a loving Mechagodzilla.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:54
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I am very skeptical of "by Sunday", but there has to be a time limit of some sort. They have to pay (and feed) their soldiers in some way right? How is that supposed to work with a rapidly imploding economy? e: Threadkiller Dog posted:Bellingcat has to be referring to literal front line ammunition and supplies. That's unrelated from sanctions. So I guess no more arty shoot shoot and missiles from sunday on, because its simply not there in sufficient quantities. Now this I could believe with all their "convoys stuck in the mud" snafus. Bellmaker fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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Grammarchist posted:Maybe Biden's hoping to get the Iran Deal back on so he can mitigate the shock of that announcement some. It'd take a while for Iranian oil to make a difference, and it couldn't "replace" Russian stock on the global market, but it'd probably help psychologically if nothing else. What's the scuttlebutt on that? I feel like that whole dialogue just disappeared from the media radar given Biden's other problems so I figured nothing good was happening.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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CommieGIR posted:No Fly Zone is a no go, but do agree with the polls: We need to bite the bullet and cut off Russian gas and oil. It sounds like we are very much headed in that direction.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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An update on the "russian army collapse": apparently the Bellingcat prediction said "another 10 days or two weeks" till they run out of logistical supplies or money and that was said in an interview on March 2nd. So, take it for what you will, but I don't know where nexta tv got the Sunday figure from. Hasn't nexta tv already been posting some wild claims before? Just take that account (heck, and all accounts) with a slab of salt.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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Gumball Gumption posted:It's because we've never really enforced one on a county that could reasonably punch back and punch back at the homeland if they wanted to. I expect there is little understanding of the risk. Very briefly, friends of mine have been involved a long, long time in conflict gaming at a high level, where actual decision makers are brought together to walk through various scenarios. The tendency is to underestimate the risk the other side escalates. In many gaming scenarios the Soviets would escalate to tactical nukes because they assumed NATO wouldn't go strategic. I see a real risk that if NATO attempted to enforce a NFZ that this would get very hot very quickly. Putin is wayyyyy more invested in this than anyone other than Ukraine. Don't keep ratcheting up military options, in short.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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Gros Tarla posted:So, what happens when it collapses? They pack up their poo poo and go back home to try again in a decade? The Russian army can't technically run out of cash since Russia has its own currency. In terms of the real economy Russia can afford (in the technical sense) the resources to do this war for quite some time - but they probably logistically can't sustain the push they're doing now for a long time. That said with the way Putin is doing things internally in Russia, he could presumably convert to a "war economy" and just pour resources into the army. Russia can't match the tremendous spigot of arms and money flowing to Ukraine from the west though, and Ukraine is both huge and only slightly less than a third of Russia's population. When the populace is this united it's almost impossible to imagine a successful occupation that's not an enormous drain on your resources.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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Bellingcat has to be referring to literal front line ammunition and supplies. That's unrelated from sanctions. So I guess no more arty shoot shoot and missiles from sunday on, because its simply not there in sufficient quantities.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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Gros Tarla posted:So, what happens when it collapses? They pack up their poo poo and go back home to try again in a decade? Time for the evil western warmongers to carve up that sweet sweet lebensraum
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Mar 4, 2022 22:55
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Desumaytah posted:I'll believe this only after it happens. I want Ukraine to win and yeah they've been kicking rear end and the Russian army is making GBS threads razors in bed but I'd sooner expect NATO to send Zelensky a loving Mechagodzilla. And here I thought I could never become a saber rattling warhawk. Don't tempt me with a good time, dude.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:56
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Charlotte Hornets posted:
Holy smokes, this was tense.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:56
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499844253786288133 Years of Bush and Clinton treating no-fly zones as a quick fix salve for all our problems have broken the collective brains of the average American. People somehow believe that they are peacefully imposed and maintained. Shooting down planes is an act of war you idiots!!!!!
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Mar 4, 2022 22:56
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I find it hard to believe that the Russian army would collapse like that. Certainly not as a result of sanctions – those will play havoc with their economy, but that mainly affects their eternal trade relations and access to spare parts. Soldiers will get paid in their own currency, tough poo poo if they can't buy anything with it. Similarly, a collapse starting Sunday is ridiculous. They pre-staged a ton of supplies (see convoy). I'd take that news with a bucket of salt tbh. (That said, this armchair general wonders if the phenomenon in HOI4 where front lines can hold quite long and taking out supplies doesn't seem to have an immediate effect, until suddenly positions collapse rapidly, is accurate to real life)
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Mar 4, 2022 22:56
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Eric Cantonese posted:What's the scuttlebutt on that? I feel like that whole dialogue just disappeared from the media radar given Biden's other problems so I figured nothing good was happening. It’s going well apparently. Biden seems to realize letting the moment by moment reporting often blows up in your face like with BBB.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:56
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jaete posted:I think the Russian connection thing in fact goes back in history much further, further even than the fall of the Soviet Union. I read somewhere that in the 1950s when the cold war was getting started, USA and USSR both decided to forbid directly doing business with one another. But because rich people wanted to do business anyway, in some way, London UK became the place for that. Hence the historically very large banking sector of the UK, which is still over-large w.r.t. rest of the UK economy, and Russian influence This went both ways. IIRC the titanium for the SR-71 was purchased from the USSR through a kerjillion shell companies. The Russians didnt know until after the Cold War
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Mar 4, 2022 22:57
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Eric Cantonese posted:That Bellingcat prediction reminds me of the JP Morgan prediction of a 35% GDP contraction for Russia. I suspect it's overly optimistic (from a pro-Ukraine standpoint). But I would still think the effects of the sanctions and other moves have taken some kind of toll. 35% contraction is believable for me simply because gas and oil have become untouchable despite being unsanctioned and russia's central bank sure is making moves based on existential threat to an economy (stock market closed indefinitely! We can shut down banks at any time!) i do not believe russia is 3 days away from defeat.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:57
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Currently on a plane from Moscow to Cairo. Flight was supposed to be direct, but right before departure the airspace near Rostov was closed completely. We got rerouted to Минеральные воды and the plane is refueling there. They say we'll be on our way to Cairo in an hour, currently just chilling on the airfield. Check out this nutty route:  For what it's worth, the situation at Шереметьево airport was pretty relaxed.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:58
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Vampire Panties posted:This went both ways. IIRC the titanium for the SR-71 was purchased from the USSR through a kerjillion shell companies. The Russians didnt know until after the Cold War That is correct, we sourced Titanium from Russia through shell companies.
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Mar 4, 2022 22:59
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CommieGIR posted:No Fly Zone is a no go, but do agree with the polls: We need to bite the bullet and cut off Russian gas and oil. Any indications what that would mean, outside of the nebulous 'higher prices?' Are there any US industries dependent on a specific oil product produced by Russia?
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Mar 4, 2022 22:59
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If a termite mound is injured, the termites can build back. But if a country falls, how can it rebuild with scant resources? We're McKinsey & Co. We can show you how.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:00
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TheRat posted:Looks like the Russians released a few propaganda videos of their own today: Can we get a ban on posting Russian propaganda? I get that most of the content here is Ukrainian propaganda but there's a difference between propaganda that consists of factual reporting confirmed by outside sources vs the propaganda of an aggressive invader
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Mar 4, 2022 23:00
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499844253786288133 the first one is loving crazy when you consider that gas is already at $4 a gallon. i never thought i'd live to see americans willing to sacrifice high gas prices for a country we can't find on a map.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:00
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PharmerBoy posted:Any indications what that would mean, outside of the nebulous 'higher prices?' Are there any US industries dependent on a specific oil product produced by Russia? We only get 3% of our oil from Russia so not really. The biggest issue is going to be price speculators driving the price higher by absurd amounts, not the actual availability of oil.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:01
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the popes toes posted:If a termite mound is injured, the termites can build back. But if a country falls, how can it rebuild with scant resources? We're McKinsey & Co. We can show you how. A map of Ukraine's natural resources spontaneously materialises in mayor Pete's office
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Mar 4, 2022 23:02
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the first one is loving crazy when you consider that gas is already at $4 a gallon. i never thought i'd live to see americans willing to sacrifice high gas prices for a country we can't find on a map. They won't. They want it without any coconsequences
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Mar 4, 2022 23:02
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PharmerBoy posted:Any indications what that would mean, outside of the nebulous 'higher prices?' Are there any US industries dependent on a specific oil product produced by Russia? I don’t believe so. BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:35% contraction is believable for me simply because gas and oil have become untouchable despite being unsanctioned and russia's central bank sure is making moves based on existential threat to an economy (stock market closed indefinitely! We can shut down banks at any time!) i do not believe russia is 3 days away from defeat. Idk if it’s 3 days. But shits not going well for Russia and as of today, I’d rather be in Ukrainian side then Russia.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:02
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PharmerBoy posted:Any indications what that would mean, outside of the nebulous 'higher prices?' Are there any US industries dependent on a specific oil product produced by Russia?
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Mar 4, 2022 23:02
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the first one is loving crazy when you consider that gas is already at $4 a gallon. i never thought i'd live to see americans willing to sacrifice high gas prices for a country we can't find on a map. Russian oil is something like 3% of US oil imports, cutting that off would barely even be a blip compared to the other economic chaos that's happening right now.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:02
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Young Freud posted:Bellingcat says that Russia only has enough resources to wage the war until this coming Sunday... People seems to agree that Russia can't keep this up for months, let alone years, with the kinds of losses they are taking, they likely wouldn't be bringing in what looks to be old, run down hardware on a slow train from the far eastern shores if they weren't feeling some pain, but for a country of that size to run dry in less than two weeks seems absurdly optimistic. The_Franz fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 23:02
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the first one is loving crazy when you consider that gas is already at $4 a gallon. i never thought i'd live to see americans willing to sacrifice high gas prices for a country we can't find on a map. It’s because Putin is an outside threat and Ukraine is the plucky little power fighting off the big monster. Etc.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:03
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Eric Cantonese posted:What's the scuttlebutt on that? I feel like that whole dialogue just disappeared from the media radar given Biden's other problems so I figured nothing good was happening. Supposedly an agreement is "close" with a few sticking points. Some envoys believe it could happen next week. American and Iranian diplomats are more guarded and emphasize that talks could still fail, but that's probably posturing to each other. Israel is mad, naturally, but nobody's paying attention to them right now for obvious reasons. I imagine that will change once it happens and Fox News gets going on it. https://www.reuters.com/world/we-are-close-uk-envoy-iran-nuclear-talks-says-europeans-fly-home-2022-03-04/
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Mar 4, 2022 23:04
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Vox Nihili posted:Russian oil is something like 3% of US oil imports, cutting that off would barely even be a blip compared to the other economic chaos that's happening right now. Oil prices are global though (though not identical due to transportation costs, taxes etc), even a net exporter will face higher prices.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:04
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:the first one is loving crazy when you consider that gas is already at $4 a gallon. i never thought i'd live to see americans willing to sacrifice high gas prices for a country we can't find on a map. They are not willing to sacrifice high gas prices, as soon as the prices rise everyone will start bitching Anyways gas prices arent that bad. With inflation im pretty sure gas was actually a lot more expensive in the early 2010s
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Mar 4, 2022 23:04
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