|
Young Freud posted:It may very well be, but apparently Grozev confirmed it. https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499872184382234636
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:28
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 21:17 |
|
|
mdemone posted:No, that part just got confirmed this afternoon by the White House. Does someone have a link to this? Curious on the verbiage used and by whom. Reference to sharing air track data with Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:28
|
|
|
KillHour posted:Everyone I know who is in favor of a NFZ knows this means "go to war with Russia" and they don't care. Specifically, I also think we should stop all imports and exports of any kind to and from Russia, regardless of the cost to our economy. Furthermore, if that doesn't stop Russia from continuing to invade, I agree that the United States should go to war with Russia and blow any Russian planes and tanks in Ukraine to hell. So, I guess I agree with 3/4 of the American public on that one. I don't know about you but I don't like a best case scenario of living in a post nuclear fallout hellscape.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:28
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:Russia is kind of losing in the sense that it's very clear now that whatever unrealistic goals Putin had in mind, apart from NATO membership, they can't achieve using the military. The truth is Putin doesn't actually need a full victory to show at home. His core electorate are fairly uninformed and blindly support him, no matter what. If on Monday all propagandists start saying that the war was really only about NATO, that's what they're going to accept, mission accomplished. The majority of Russians who don't support Putin are simply disenfranchised and nihilistic, so nobody cares what they think. And the opposition media are crushed, and Putin's politically active detractors won't even be able to effectively utilise his apparent failure. Putin doesn't have a core 'electorate', Russia isn't a democracy.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:29
|
|
|
KillHour posted:Everyone I know who is in favor of a NFZ knows this means "go to war with Russia" and they don't care. Specifically, I also think we should stop all imports and exports of any kind to and from Russia, regardless of the cost to our economy. Furthermore, if that doesn't stop Russia from continuing to invade, I agree that the United States should go to war with Russia and blow any Russian planes and tanks in Ukraine to hell. So, I guess I agree with 3/4 of the American public on that one. Seriously.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:29
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:Russia is kind of losing in the sense that it's very clear now that whatever unrealistic goals Putin had in mind, apart from NATO membership, they can't achieve using the military. The truth is Putin doesn't actually need a full victory to show at home. His core electorate are fairly uninformed and blindly support him, no matter what. If on Monday all propagandists start saying that the war was really only about NATO, that's what they're going to accept, mission accomplished. The majority of Russians who don't support Putin are simply disenfranchised and nihilistic, so nobody cares what they think. And the opposition media are crushed, and Putin's politically active detractors won't even be able to effectively utilise his apparent failure. I like the first sentence because it sounds like Putin is doing all of this to impress NATO so they will finally let him join.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:30
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I don't know about you but I don't like a best case scenario of living in a post nuclear fallout hellscape. I genuinely don't believe that saying "Ukraine is on our side and if you keep your poo poo there we're going to blow it all up" is going to cause Putin to say "Well if I can't have Ukraine, I'm murder-suiciding the world." Maybe he will, but that's a hell of a leap.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:31
|
|
|
It seems like people ITT generally think Putin won't let Russia's borders change without deploying nukes, but I'm not sure why China wouldn't demand outer manchuria back if they're going to keep putting up with his bullshit.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:32
|
|
|
Either he's saying that the Russians are using up their supplies and on Sunday they'll get resupplied in which case, no poo poo that's how supply lines work, or they won't get resupplied and it will be catastrophic. You can't really downplay the implications of this without making the statement completely banal.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:32
|
|
|
Putin possess a “core electorate” of people who will shoot others before they shoot him. He maintains this through a careful web of the three Ps: prison, propaganda, and poison.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:33
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499872184382234636 Apparently he was misquoted. This does sound more realistic.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:33
|
|
|
KillHour posted:Everyone I know who is in favor of a NFZ knows this means "go to war with Russia" and they don't care. Specifically, I also think we should stop all imports and exports of any kind to and from Russia, regardless of the cost to our economy. Furthermore, if that doesn't stop Russia from continuing to invade, I agree that the United States should go to war with Russia and blow any Russian planes and tanks in Ukraine to hell. So, I guess I agree with 3/4 of the American public on that one. Worse means nuclear Armageddon. You understand that, right? Like you can go "I don't believe it" but that is the entire idea behind MAD and if you are wrong everyone dies. ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Mar 4, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:34
|
|
|
Nexta has been just twisting words and posting trash unsourced takes a lot. And went completely wild on nuclear fear even after like two different Ukrainian officials and the IAEA said it was handled last night.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:34
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:They're certainly suffering a substantial degree of attrition in their armored ranks, which is verifiable in the actual footage we've seen. That's well, well removed from being two days from running out of things like gas and food and collapsing entirely. These forces have been doing exercises in the region for months, some for years, and they're only a few dozen miles from their home territory. Russia has vast stores of war material. The logistical buildup was done over many months as well. The notion that they're running out of basic supplies already is just not in line with reality. yeah, i agree. it seems like there is a disconnect between what russia is actually strugging with (bring material to the front in a timely manner) and what people want (russia literally being unable to supply its army and forced to withdraw). the former is obviously fixable with time, the latter seems incredibly unrealistic to me. this is a country that lost 9-12 million soldiers in world war 2, that is 20% of the world's arms market, that has one of the largest refining capacities in the world. they have a shitload of guns, bullets, and tanks. i think again it is not a question of whether russia can win the war - it clearly can, it's a much bigger country - but whether they are willing to pay the price needed to do so. obviously, when they gently caress up, that raises the price.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:35
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Either he's saying that the Russians are using up their supplies and on Sunday they'll get resupplied in which case, no poo poo that's how supply lines work, or they won't get resupplied and it will be catastrophic.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:35
|
|
|
ImpAtom posted:Worse means nuclear Armageddon. You understand that, right? This has been said before, but if Putin says "Let us have Ukraine or we use nukes" and gets it, he's going to keep doing the thing that worked. There are a lot of steps between shooting down airplanes and MAD. Moreover, I'm not on board for letting a lunatic genocider hold the trolley problem over our heads as he ethnically cleanses Eastern Europe.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:36
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1499795764897325057
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:38
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:
That actually didn't happen, the Germans fed a bunch of lies to Finnish foreign office, and we swallowed it, hook, line and sinker. Researchers now have access to the records about the meeting where the Germans claimed they had told Stalin via Molotov not to occupy Finland. In truth, the Soviets were protesting German troops movement through Finland to northern Norway in that meeting, there was no discussion about Soviets occupying Finland.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:39
|
|
|
KillHour posted:Everyone I know who is in favor of a NFZ knows this means "go to war with Russia" and they don't care. Specifically, I also think we should stop all imports and exports of any kind to and from Russia, regardless of the cost to our economy. Furthermore, if that doesn't stop Russia from continuing to invade, I agree that the United States should go to war with Russia and blow any Russian planes and tanks in Ukraine to hell. So, I guess I agree with 3/4 of the American public on that one. Russia is barely able to invade Ukraine, and is largely surrounded by NATO countries to its west. Invading those would trigger WWIII, and Russia would not win WWIII (but neither would we). So that's not going to happen. Comparing it to Nazi Germany is ridiculous.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:39
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Either he's saying that the Russians are using up their supplies and on Sunday they'll get resupplied in which case, no poo poo that's how supply lines work, or they won't get resupplied and it will be catastrophic. I definitely think it's the latter. They've been using up and losing supplies in Belarus and Rostov-On-Don at an incredible rate that they'll be exhausted in the immediate theater. They can get resupply from other regions, but it could take up to a week to get resupplied and I'm guessing that those units already in Ukraine can't exactly hold out for a week with low ammo, low fuel, and low food supplies. And the sanctions are going to make things harder, especially on the financial front. We have to remember they were already having logistical issues waiting around in Belarus and Rostov, even before kicking off the special military operation.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:39
|
|
|
KillHour posted:This has been said before, but if Putin says "Let us have Ukraine or we use nukes" and gets it, he's going to keep doing the thing that worked. There are a lot of steps between shooting down airplanes and MAD. There may be a lot of steps, but if NATO is at open war with Russia then they can be taken very, very quickly. No one intends to start a nuclear war, but rapid escalation can take things out of people's hands. Hell, it makes it way more likely that one will start by accident. Also, what would a no-fly zone even do, really? We can't shoot down artillery shells and we can't stop their rockets and missiles. Their air power is not the main source of Ukraine's misery
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:40
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499872184382234636 Apparently he was misquoted. This does sound more realistic. This is still a complete disaster for the Russian army. If Ukraine Air Force is genuinely still functional in reserve, I would say there's a non-zero chance that Ukraine literally routes Russia back over the border. If it even lasts that long - if i were a Russian artillery crewman, looking at the dwindling stacks of supplies with no idea how or when they'll be renewed, knowing that there's effectively a death sentence on me from Ukraine special forces, I'd be thinking about running now
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:41
|
|
|
Brave, the entire place could be shrapnel soon
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:41
|
|
|
KillHour posted:This has been said before, but if Putin says "Let us have Ukraine or we use nukes" and gets it, he's going to keep doing the thing that worked. There are a lot of steps between shooting down airplanes and MAD. No there are not!! That is the point of Nukes. They are the great equalizer. If a war starts then nukes are going to come into play. The threat of Nukes is key.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:41
|
|
|
KillHour posted:This has been said before, but if Putin says "Let us have Ukraine or we use nukes" and gets it, he's going to keep doing the thing that worked. There are a lot of steps between shooting down airplanes and MAD. gambling that we can have a hot war without nukes is wildly irresponsible at best and suicidal at worst. a nfz isn't just shooting down planes, it's bombing anti-air defenses and dealing with attacks lobbed against your own air bases to stop you from doing more bombings. the us strategy is to economically strangle russia while strengthening our alliances and maintaining the nuclear umbrella. in the long run, russia will lack the material to be a serious threat to the world. we can methodically win a struggle against them without shooting down their planes - after all, we did it already once before.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:42
|
|
|
Vampire Panties posted:This is still a complete disaster for the Russian army. If Ukraine Air Force is genuinely still functional in reserve, I would say there's a non-zero chance that Ukraine literally routes Russia back over the border. If it even lasts that long - if i were a Russian artillery crewman, looking at the dwindling stacks of supplies with no idea how or when they'll be renewed, knowing that there's effectively a death sentence on me from Ukraine special forces, I'd be thinking about running now We're seeing plenty of abandoned mobile launchers and SPAGs with loaded racks and ammo bins, so we know that they're already doing that.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
tractor fanatic posted:Also, what would a no-fly zone even do, really? We can't shoot down artillery shells and we can't stop their rockets and missiles. Their air power is not the main source of Ukraine's misery This - even if we interdicted the most stringent no-fly zone in the world, its not really going to mean anything against GRAD rocket artillery.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:43
|
|
|
Like it is absolutely unfathomable to me that you think Putin is crazy enough to go on an ethnic cleansing invasion of Europe and get into direct conflict with NATO but not crazy enough to kill himself and everyone else if he fails. That is a *very specific* kind of crazy
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
Vampire Panties posted:This - even if we interdicted the most stringent no-fly zone in the world, its not really going to mean anything against GRAD rocket artillery. It'd be a different story if the Ukrainian airforce had been knocked out but now a no fly zone would probably be a wash anyway.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:45
|
|
|
There seems to be this impression that Putin is running the whole show and the rest of the Kremlin is being subjugated by him somehow… How accurate is that? Surely one person can’t wield this much sway alone? In a week he has absolutely decimated Russia and now it will have to slide further into authoritarianism (at pace) to maintain the status quo. And everyone in Russia is powerless to stop him?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:46
|
|
|
Do wars redraw alignments? Guess they do. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1499799181631926272
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:46
|
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:35% contraction is believable for me simply because gas and oil have become untouchable despite being unsanctioned and russia's central bank sure is making moves based on existential threat to an economy (stock market closed indefinitely! We can shut down banks at any time!) i do not believe russia is 3 days away from defeat. What i WOULD believe is that russia's immediately actionable logistical supply for the forces in Ukraine anywhere at or above an absolute redline level of being able to support forward holdings is three days away from collapse to under that redline. So not "russia is 3 days away from defeat" but "russia is 3 days away from being unable to replenish and sustain artillery operations in [verylargenumber]% of forward operations" or "russia is 3 days away from telling its front line to start 'locally sourcing' food supplies" or "russia is 3 days away from instructions to ration small arms ammunition" all of which could turn into "russia is 3+x days away from having to demonstrate critical weakness" which could come in the form of substantive retreats, or withdrawal of specific operations which require specialized supply, or just in general anything that predates Ukranians being able to amass and silently stage a Tet Offensive style shock to current russian holdings.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:46
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Russia is barely able to invade Ukraine, and is largely surrounded by NATO countries to its west. Invading those would trigger WWIII, and Russia would not win WWIII (but neither would we). So that's not going to happen. Comparing it to Nazi Germany is ridiculous. I'm not saying they're as strong as Nazi Germany (although everyone thought they might be until they showed their entire rear end by being incompetent) but they sure as hell are going to cause a lot of pain and misery and the longer we let it go on, the more of a humanitarian crisis this is going to be. tractor fanatic posted:There may be a lot of steps, but if NATO is at open war with Russia then they can be taken very, very quickly. No one intends to start a nuclear war, but rapid escalation can take things out of people's hands. Hell, it makes it way more likely that one will start by accident. What we can do is counter-battery the gently caress out of them and make it very clear they cannot win an inch of ground. I'm aware that we will incur losses but doing nothing is not an option I can live with. Edit: Anyways my point isn't to get into a debate on whether we should (because I am outnumbered and will obviously lose and probably end up probed), but to clarify that when people say that they are in favor of a war, they know what that means. There's a specific kind of fallacy that people fall into where "a position I disagree with is popular" turns into "everyone else doesn't understand / is mislead / is stupid." KillHour fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Mar 4, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
the popes toes posted:Do wars redraw alignments? Guess they do. King Salman must have gotten covid
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:48
|
|
|
Chalks posted:It'd be a different story if the Ukrainian airforce had been knocked out but now a no fly zone would probably be a wash anyway. And you have to take all these pesky things out https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1499831157503967235?cxt=HHwWhoCy4bifvNApAAAA
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:48
|
|
|
If I had a high chance of getting shelled by Russian artillery I'd probably want to do so wearing a cool pair of stolen Ray-Bans. Capitalism is a gently caress, no need to cry over spilt profits
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:49
|
|
|
Dog Friday posted:There seems to be this impression that Putin is running the whole show and the rest of the Kremlin is being subjugated by him somehow… How accurate is that? Surely one person can’t wield this much sway alone? In a week he has absolutely decimated Russia and now it will have to slide further into authoritarianism (at pace) to maintain the status quo. And everyone in Russia is powerless to stop him? I mean Donald loving Trump manages to convince an overwhelming number of people to support him unambiguously. Donald Trump. And he is an inept cartoon of a man in a country he had far less control over. That is how dictators thrives. They surround themselves with the loyal and kill the disloyal. They control narrative and power to the point where going against them is suicide. It isn't just Putin but him and those loyal to him, who hold thd majority of money, influence and power.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:50
|
|
|
the popes toes posted:Do wars redraw alignments? Guess they do. This is probably just PR from someone who needs a new image. He also says that “I believe the Saudi media should criticize the government’s work, the government’s plans… because that’s healthy.” while literally chopping journalists up. Specifically there's been talking about sanctions towards him personally. He probably doesn't want to get caught up in the sanction-stuff going around, so he wants to appear to be a reformer.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:50
|
|
|
KillHour posted:I'm not saying they're as strong as Nazi Germany (although everyone thought they might be until they showed their entire rear end by being incompetent) but they sure as hell are going to cause a lot of pain and misery and the longer we let it go on, the more of a humanitarian crisis this is going to be. Turning all of Europe into an exponentially worse humanitarian crisis isn't going to help.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:51
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 21:17 |
|
|
It's not looting, it's scavenging for supplies in an active warzone Jesus
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2022 23:51
|
|
