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Also, I have finally read the Russian text for the alleged FSB analyst's leak. I must agree with Fatherboxx, this is either Pulitzer's Prize in military fanfic writing, or a legitimate account of the situation.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:46
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the popes toes posted:This is odd? Earlier reports of aircraft give-aways were poo-poo'ed for various reasons. One was that it was a provocation too far. Perhaps it's just being bruited by the West as "look what we're thinking about doing, get your rear end to the table" kind of thing? Could be the US struck a deal with Poland to trade F-16s for MiGs, and said "Don't worry, we'll handle the delivery." The US is probably a lot less worried about antagonizing Russia than Poland is right now.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:50
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gay picnic defence posted:Is that a TOW or something? It's the wrong flight profile for a Javelin. Javelins get all the press, but Ukraine also has a domestic anti-tank system, the Skif. I assume this is it.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:52
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the popes toes posted:This is odd? Earlier reports of aircraft give-aways were poo-poo'ed for various reasons. One was that it was a provocation too far. Perhaps it's just being bruited by the West as "look what we're thinking about doing, get your rear end to the table" kind of thing? I think the calculus is changing considerably with this conflict. Where initially the west may have been intending to send some token aid, now it looks like there's a real prospect of Russian defeat. While there's some progress in the south there doesn't seem any realistic prospect of Kiev and other northern cities falling anytime soon. Fighters probably made zero sense if it was looking like Russian bombers were ranging all over the country unchallenged and able to bomb any new planes on the ground, but now it looks like Ukraine can sustain air operations from the western part of the country for the foreseeable future so bolstering that would make sense.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:53
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Bremen posted:The US is probably a lot less worried about antagonizing Russia than Poland is right now.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:56
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the popes toes posted:To be honest, I believe it is exactly the opposite. The US is being labeled the aggressor by Moscow. The US handing over materiel that significant would be result in Moscow announcing that their objective analysis was correct. In effect, it would be a greater provocation were the US to provide airframes directly to Ukraine. Best left to Poland. Oh, I'm sure it would make Putin gnash his teeth far more. I just think the US is less worried about what he would do about it, both because of distance and being more dismissive of Russia as a threat (conventional or nuclear). But yeah, starting to think Ukraine might actually win also probably has a lot to do with it.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:58
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the popes toes posted:To be honest, I believe it is exactly the opposite. The US is being labeled the aggressor by Moscow. The US handing over materiel that significant would be result in Moscow announcing that their objective analysis was correct. In effect, it would be a greater provocation were the US to provide airframes directly to Ukraine. Best left to Poland. The bigger issue is that Ukraine doesn't have any pilots that know how to fly American jets. They can fly a MiG-29, though, so swapping out with Poland is the only way to make it work.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:59
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It’s honestly beginning to look like Ukraine might be limiting flights to the east to minimize the chances of blue-on-blue via the seven gajillion MANPADS.
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Mar 6, 2022 02:59
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MrYenko posted:It’s honestly beginning to look like Ukraine might be limiting flights to the east to minimize the chances of blue-on-blue via the seven gajillion MANPADS. Seems needs to make the MANPADS per capita wikipedia page
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Mar 6, 2022 03:01
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Party like it's 1914 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Yser Or 1574 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leiden Except the invading force is in even worse shape than those two battles because they're doing this in winter which has been a no-no since, like, Viking times. If the water won't hurt 'em the ice (too thin to carry a tank, but enough to break any speedy amphibious attack) sure will.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Also, I have finally read the Russian text for the alleged FSB analyst's leak. I must agree with Fatherboxx, this is either Pulitzer's Prize in military fanfic writing, or a legitimate account of the situation. So, unless I'm misudnerstanding... Analysts were asked to come up with an assessment of an invasion of Ukraine. Thinking this was one of those edge case things they painte a quick and dirty rosy picture so superiors wouldn't yell at them. But then those superiors went ahead and actually did it? Of course that's probably way too simplistic and I might be misunderstanding things (should get to bed).
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Mar 6, 2022 03:03
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Dante posted:Seems needs to make the MANPADS per capita wikipedia page Honey, I told you not to leave the MANPAD there. Put it in the barn. And store it on the side. You've already ruined one reticule. Kids, time for kasha!
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Mar 6, 2022 03:08
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Randarkman posted:So, unless I'm misudnerstanding... Analysts were asked to come up with an assessment of an invasion of Ukraine. Thinking this was one of those edge case things they painte a quick and dirty rosy picture so superiors wouldn't yell at them. But then those superiors went ahead and actually did it? Yeah that seems like the deal. Nobody took this seriously so all the plans were half-assed and overly rosy because, wtf, who would possibly be dumb enough to order that
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Mar 6, 2022 03:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah that seems like the deal. Nobody took this seriously so all the plans were half-assed and overly rosy because, wtf, who would possibly be dumb enough to order that Was that assessment written before the incursion or after, as a criticism?
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Mar 6, 2022 03:12
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Bremen posted:Could be the US struck a deal with Poland to trade F-16s for MiGs, and said "Don't worry, we'll handle the delivery." The US is probably a lot less worried about antagonizing Russia than Poland is right now. The US doesn't act isolated in this, any act from the US will be perceived as an act by NATO. Didn't the proposal fail because the aircraft would have been based in Poland? Maybe the situation changed and they can now safely operate from Ukraine air strips. Actually it wouldn't surprise me if they've spent the last couple of days preparing dirt strips in the western parts of the country for this specific purpose.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:12
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the popes toes posted:Honey, I told you not to leave the MANPAD there. Put it in the barn. And store it on the side. You've already ruined one reticule. Kids, time for kasha!  
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Mar 6, 2022 03:12
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Putin has a lot more non nuclear options for dealing with poland than the us. Its a lot less agressive to be scared about your neighbor than just being a belligerant superpower
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Mar 6, 2022 03:13
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Poland has not been in the mood for twenty years, and they have been building up hard since the Crimean invasion. They have beefy brigades and have been heavily modernizing. France and Germany have been falling behind on their requirements for years and their brigades are in a pretty sad state. When it comes to numbers and organization, Poland has arguably the most respectable military in Europe at the moment, and they're modernizing at a pretty blistering rate. God help them, Romania really tries and puts up numbers but they're having understandable difficulties in modernizing.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:14
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the popes toes posted:This is odd? Earlier reports of aircraft give-aways were poo-poo'ed for various reasons. One was that it was a provocation too far. Perhaps it's just being bruited by the West as "look what we're thinking about doing, get your rear end to the table" kind of thing? So if Ukraine is going to be a repeat of Afghanistan, how long until the US invades it?
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Mar 6, 2022 03:17
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:Poland has not been in the mood for twenty years, and they have been building up hard since the Crimean invasion. They have beefy brigades and have been heavily modernizing. France and Germany have been falling behind on their requirements for years and their brigades are in a pretty sad state. When it comes to numbers and organization, Poland has arguably the most respectable military in Europe at the moment, and they're modernizing at a pretty blistering rate. God help them, Romania really tries and puts up numbers but they're having understandable difficulties in modernizing. I thought France had a pretty great military from what I've seen/read over the years. I have no real knowledge on the matter though, is my perception wrong?
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Mar 6, 2022 03:18
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KingColliwog posted:I thought France had a pretty great military from what I've seen/read over the years. I have no real knowledge on the matter though, is my perception wrong? Their military is decent, even during World War 2 it wasn't so much the military but High Command that was garbage. Rather ironic given what is going on right now with Russia.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:19
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Randarkman posted:So, unless I'm misudnerstanding... Analysts were asked to come up with an assessment of an invasion of Ukraine. Thinking this was one of those edge case things they painte a quick and dirty rosy picture so superiors wouldn't yell at them. But then those superiors went ahead and actually did it? It was more like analysts being asked to write up an assessment of a regime change without invading, with a few contingency best case scenario things like “our troops capture Ukrainian government people and facilities in Kyiv in 1-3 days and get them to enact a reform”. Which they did with all the poo poo like “200 VDV troopers could land in the Independence Square and walk into president’s administration”, to avoid superiors going ballistic on them over troops being lovely or analysts not being able to figure things out, etcetera. It’s a very stereotypical display of the locally common “if you’re the boss, I’m the fool, but if I’m the boss, you’re the fool” business axiom.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:20
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:God help them, Romania really tries and puts up numbers but they're having understandable difficulties in modernizing.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:21
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KingColliwog posted:I thought France had a pretty great military from what I've seen/read over the years. I have no real knowledge on the matter though, is my perception wrong? It is large, well equipped and has nukes. No one really knows (case and point: Russia), but they seem to be the class of the EU.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:21
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the popes toes posted:Was that assessment written before the incursion or after, as a criticism? Before, that assessment was a feasibility “study”.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:23
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KingColliwog posted:I thought France had a pretty great military from what I've seen/read over the years. I have no real knowledge on the matter though, is my perception wrong? From what I understand they are pretty good, and more importantly have got loads of combat experience from various operations in Africa.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:24
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KingColliwog posted:I thought France had a pretty great military from what I've seen/read over the years. I have no real knowledge on the matter though, is my perception wrong? They've gotten much better in recent years, but they were falling into disrepair after the Soviet breakup where they agreed to split their required brigade numbers with Germany. They weren't even meeting their required # of brigades then, and what few they had were pretty underequipped and mostly motorized (as opposed to mechanized).
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Mar 6, 2022 03:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Before, that assessment was a feasibility “study”. From the forceful language, it sounded as if the author was told "we're probably going to do this" rather than "just for a study, do this".
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Mar 6, 2022 03:28
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"rozjebane ruskie gowno" https://streamable.com/syn7s6 bunch of destroyed vehicles from a Russian column  dead Russian soldier at the end
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Mar 6, 2022 03:29
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the popes toes posted:From the forceful language, it sounded as if the author was told "we're probably going to do this" rather than "just for a study, do this". No, it doesn’t read like that at all in Russian.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:30
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cinci zoo sniper posted:No, it doesn’t read like that at all in Russian. That's good to know, thanks.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:31
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah that seems like the deal. Nobody took this seriously so all the plans were half-assed and overly rosy because, wtf, who would possibly be dumb enough to order that So it's the opposite of the preparation for the war with Finland (generals thinking it will be s disaster, Stalin optimistic) but with the same result
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Mar 6, 2022 03:35
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yeah that seems like the deal. Nobody took this seriously so all the plans were half-assed and overly rosy because, wtf, who would possibly be dumb enough to order that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deuzVsKMsTA its russo japanese war all over again. holy gently caress.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:36
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This is well made, I'm presuming pre war? Or is it in the last week? https://twitter.com/michaelidov/status/1500268356699504640?s=20&t=aUYnLBnOsoXLoXUhUhjWhw In other questions, why is no one on either side getting some paint and bushes and using camouflage? I've seen some Russian tanks with a pathetic amount of white stripe over them, but the Ukrainian's are doing it either. As a wargamer, I am disappointed there's no cool paint jobs or even trying to cover up tanks or helmets with vegetation.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:36
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At least the PLA knows it sucks
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Mar 6, 2022 03:37
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Rinkles posted:"rozjebane ruskie gowno" That's a lot of wrecked poo poo.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:37
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Comstar posted:This is well made, I'm presuming pre war? Or is it in the last week? Iirc, that's from around 2014, the last time Russia invaded them.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:38
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Shibawanko posted:is it likely that the war will accelerate the move away from fossil fuels? Sadly the result of an fossil fuel shortage isn't going to be shifting to renewables, it's going to be allowing drilling in protected areas, countries loosening restrictions on fracking and rubber stamping new pipelines. If Oil and Gas becomes really expensive, that's just an incentive to drill for more not less. It might at least get some countries to start thinking about finally building some Nuclear plants instead of loving about being scared of it.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:39
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gay picnic defence posted:That's a lot of wrecked poo poo. The guy giving the tour says he's 50% Ukrainian, 25% Polish, 25% Jewish.
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Mar 6, 2022 03:40
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Are they shelling the Russians with their own captured artillery? Because if so 
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