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Xeom posted:Why gas the situation further? I can only imagine people here believe one of two things. Russia isn't backed into a corner. Russia is standing on their neighbors lawn shooting through their windows while demanding they surrender. No one is keeping them there.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:25
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There's literally a full-on another thread in D&D for clancy chat where Xeom can RP his/her post-apocalypse cannibalism strategies. No reason for these drive-by derails.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:25
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The steady propaganda stream of imagery, vids, statements, art - all of it, is remarkable. And contrasted with "Ukrainians are shelling themselves" by the Russian establishment makes them seem amateurish and ham-handed in comparison. At least you could depend on the Soviets for great propaganda art.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:26
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Yureina posted:I'm not sure where you are getting that impression. It's not bloodlust to cheer for a nation fighting for its freedom and independence against a foreign aggressor. In your mind what is the situation where Putin is over thrown between a first volley and a full on exchange. How much time do you think elapses between those two moments? You've sanctioned the Russian people and destroyed what little lives they had. Why do you think they will side with you? "The west" clearly had the option to go after mostly oligarchs, but did the most they could to leave those people untouched while still punishing the main Russian economy. Do you think this could back fire at all? What is this "fighting for the future of humanity". I'm very curious here.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:27
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Xeom posted:Listen, I'm on the other side of things here I'd love to know what exactly this means
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Mar 9, 2022 01:28
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Xeom posted:I probably won't respond, but I'm curious to hear some viewpoints outside of chain posting. I do no believe Russia will start a nuclear war over military actions in Ukraine. Furthermore allowing Russia's invasion to go uncontested increases the chance of nuclear war, not decreases it. Setting the precedent of a nuclear armed country can invade a neighbour without repercussions will quickly lead to more nuclear armed states. Also NATO being unwilling to intervene in Ukraine due to the threat of Russian nukes raises the question of what would occur if the same thing occurs in the Baltic states. Yes it is a different circumstance but imagine the counterfactual in with the west did nothing, Russia was more successful, and Ukraine less. In this case Russia may be emboldened enough to think they could get away with a invasion of the Baltic states in the future and actually cause a all out war with NATO.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:29
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KitConstantine posted:Apparently withdrawals of up to 10k are OK, but over that must be in Rubles. Is this as much of a meltdown moment as finance people are making it sound? Yeah, this is essentially a declaration of establishment of a foreign currency black market for any goods above the threshold. A not necessarily correct, but imo intuitive, analogy here would be to say that demand for rouble has been reduced, and therefore the price of it must fall. KitConstantine posted:According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces they're coming back to take another swing. They did open an recruiting office closer to Ukraine a few days ago, in Rostov-on-Don.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:31
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Xeom posted:In your mind what is the situation where Putin is over thrown between a first volley and a full on exchange. How much time do you think elapses between those two moments? This is literally impossible. There is no way to "go after the oligarchs" without impacting the Russian people. The Russian people depend on the same economy the oligarchs do. You want a golden unicorn.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:33
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Xeom posted:"The west" clearly had the option to go after mostly oligarchs, but did the most they could to leave those people untouched while still punishing the main Russian economy. Do you think this could back fire at all? [Citation Needed]
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Mar 9, 2022 01:33
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Victis posted:I'd love to know what exactly this means When someone shows you who they are, believe them.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:34
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Xeom posted:You've sanctioned the Russian people and destroyed what little lives they had. Why do you think they will side with you? "The west" clearly had the option to go after mostly oligarchs, but did the most they could to leave those people untouched while still punishing the main Russian economy. Do you think this could back fire at all?
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Mar 9, 2022 01:34
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Xeom posted:In your mind what is the situation where Putin is over thrown between a first volley and a full on exchange. How much time do you think elapses between those two moments? Man you're like the fifth person today to parachute in from somewhere, probably that other forum that shall not be named, and start up with this crap. It's just tiring after a while. They already said that Putin being overthrown was unlikely. But it gets more and more likely the deeper we get into this and the more Russians begin to realize that their country has been made into an international pariah and severed from the global economic system. Your assertion that the west could've gone after oligarchs but decided to go after normal Russians is complete bullshit. The sanctions WERE targeted, as much as was possible, at oligarchs and Putin himself. This is actually still ongoing, the seeking out and seizure of oligarch assets abroad. But at the end of the day, if you want severe sanctions that will make clear to a country that what they're doing is not acceptable, they are going to affect the economy as a whole to some extent. There is simply no way around that. I do not think it will backfire, no. The only person of concern here is Putin. If he pulls out of Ukraine, the sanctions are gone. If someone topples him, the sanctions are gone. If he basically does anything other than what he is doing right now, invading a neighboring country without cause and murdering innocent people, the sanctions are gone. Anyone with half a loving brain should know who to blame. Other countries aren't being sanctioned, because they are peaceful and no run by a narcissistic madman with revanchist aspirations. Russians will see that nearby countries are still prosperous, are not locked out of the global economy, have currency that still buys things at a rational rate, and they'll know, or should know, why this happened. And if they can't figure that out, I'm going to spare them less thought than the people currently being murdered and made into refugees in Ukraine.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:36
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Antillie posted:[Citation Needed] Yeah haven't they seized a bunch of assets from the super rich?
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Mar 9, 2022 01:36
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ZombieLenin posted:Russian debt talk: What's the result of defaulting on the foreign debt, outside of the obvious reputation loss and likelihood that foreign investors will stay away for a generation or so?
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Mar 9, 2022 01:41
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the popes toes posted:The steady propaganda stream of imagery, vids, statements, art - all of it, is remarkable. And contrasted with "Ukrainians are shelling themselves" by the Russian establishment makes them seem amateurish and ham-handed in comparison. At least you could depend on the Soviets for great propaganda art. yeah, Russia is going heavy on the W bush iraq invasion poo poo mixed with soviet era mobster mentality of just lie about everything because gently caress it.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:43
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Xeom posted:In your mind what is the situation where Putin is over thrown between a first volley and a full on exchange. How much time do you think elapses between those two moments? I did not state that Putin using nukes would lead to an internal revolt. I said that him doing so would likely piss enough people off around the world that it would become a vested interest to see Putin removed from power by any means necessary. In other words, I'm talking about foreign intervention. I'm operating under the assumption that once a nuke goes off then a larger exchange is inevitable. If the world is hosed already, the least that can be done is to kill the guy who started it. With that said, a post-apocalypse is not a world I want to live in. I do not want to see any nukes get used. As others have already stated, sanctions that only hit the oligarchs and not the Russian economy as a whole are basically impossible. I'm not happy about it, but it is the way things are. In any case I'm not in a position to actually do anything about it. But do you know what I would like to see? I'd like to see Putin and his thieving cronies fall. From there a new Russian government would emerge that, hopefully, would be less interested in invading its neighbors and more interested in the welfare of its people. I see that as a potential opportunity that the west, unfortunately, missed in the 1990's. The final result I want to see is for Russia to become an ally and perhaps to join NATO and the EU eventually. Such a wish is impossible with Putin in charge. But with someone else and after a more magnanimous peace where Russia can get some help in rebuilding their economy after all this? That is what I'd like to see. Whether or not this will come to pass is, obviously, another matter entirely. As for that last bit... if we found ourselves in WW3, I would consider it to be a major failure for the entire world that should have learned its lesson after WW2. At that point I think I would want to do whatever I could in order to try to help end such a conflict in the hope that once it was over humanity would finally learn its lesson. That is what I meant by fighting for humanity's future. If things really did get that bad I would want to try to do something to help fix it, rather than to post online as the world burns as you put it.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:47
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BoldFace posted:Wind turbines are really ugly. Naw, but they do have some kind of bizarre 1960's sci-fi novella quality to them. Especially how recent ones look smaller than they are somehow, like giant small fans.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:47
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Sax Mortar posted:What's the result of defaulting on the foreign debt, outside of the obvious reputation loss and likelihood that foreign investors will stay away for a generation or so? You’ve got it right there. The Russian government, were it allowed, could also not “borrow” any more money by selling bonds to other countries or foreign investors, but they aren’t allowed. It will also further devalue the ruble and it’s going to suck for any foreign investors or institutions holding Russian bonds.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:47
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501357706027933698 Another one bites the dust.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:47
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Xeom posted:What is this "fighting for the future of humanity". I'm very curious here. If you are truly curious, and not just being silly, you might find it enlightening to find some older Eastern Europeans and ask them if they think this concerted effort is useful, and why. And relate those answers to the nearly global condemnation and agreement for the sanctions. With a modicum of effort, you might find some answers. You know, it's not just a few slobs in this thread that feel there should be a proportionate response - it's a sizable portion of the globe.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:50
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Djarum posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501357706027933698 Officer down, VDV embarrassed, two great tastes that taste great together! From the second tweet: quote:The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment was recently reformed in Kamyshin and its tank battalion came from the VDV's 56th Air Assault Brigade, along with Agarkov, which was transferred into a regiment and moved to Fedosia. Agarkov was a career VDV officer.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:51
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Sax Mortar posted:What's the result of defaulting on the foreign debt, outside of the obvious reputation loss and likelihood that foreign investors will stay away for a generation or so? Cuts off their access to foreign money (because no-one will loan them any when they're defaulting left and right). They need money for the war, piles and piles of the stuff and what they get through energy revenues isn't even enough to cover their normal expenditures much less a mass armed conflict. So they have to maintain with the reserves they have which absolutely cannot last. Once the reserves are up the real meltdown begins - Russia will be unable to acquire any foreign goods or services, their own currency will be valueless and there will be nothing they can offer their civil service/ police/army to keep them loyal or keep the wheels turning.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:53
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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1501334216851828737 This is going to end up an utter farce even by Borrell’s standard. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn later down the road that his “JETS WILL BE ARRIVING WITHIN THE HOUR” announcement screwed the pooch.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:55
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Djarum posted:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501357706027933698 christ, thats nuts. i am just imagining if the US hosed up this bad(instead of our usual slow burn gently caress ups) we were were losing generals/Officers everyday.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:55
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Sax Mortar posted:What's the result of defaulting on the foreign debt, outside of the obvious reputation loss and likelihood that foreign investors will stay away for a generation or so? Often Abbreviated posted:Cuts off their access to foreign money (because no-one will loan them any when they're defaulting left and right). They need money for the war, piles and piles of the stuff and what they get through energy revenues isn't even enough to cover their normal expenditures much less a mass armed conflict. So they have to maintain with the reserves they have which absolutely cannot last. Once the reserves are up the real meltdown begins - Russia will be unable to acquire any foreign goods or services, their own currency will be valueless and there will be nothing they can offer their civil service/ police/army to keep them loyal or keep the wheels turning. Dante fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 01:55
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oh look it's fascist daft punk
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Mar 9, 2022 01:55
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freeasinbeer posted:The Wagner group, named after hitlers favorite composer is lead is lead by this guy: Is it possible to stop posting this wagner mother fuckers big stupid face every page.
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Mar 9, 2022 01:57
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bowmore posted:oh look it's fascist daft punk Draft Punk? .... I'll see myself out. Dapper_Swindler posted:christ, thats nuts. i am just imagining if the US hosed up this bad(instead of our usual slow burn gently caress ups) we were were losing generals/Officers everyday. I have to wonder how many of these officer kills are by Ukraine forces, and how many are fragged by their own troops at this point...
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Mar 9, 2022 01:59
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Look guys we went over this and it's clearly Russian Equilibrium  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4weEXyoXZKs&t=17s PITT posted:Is it possible to stop posting this wagner mother fuckers big stupid face every page. My local newspaper has fallen in love with this picture as well, so tired of seeing his dumb face.
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Mar 9, 2022 02:00
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Dante posted:Assuming Russia can access the foreign bond market in the future it's would mostly just be a higher interest rate (a risk premium to account for higher default risk). That said while their bonds would technically be in default, they could potentially pay them off after the situation normalizes. This situation isn't driven by financial circumstances directly, so it's unlikely that they would get a higher interest rate just for that. They would probably get a higher interest than otherwise as a risk premium for "what if Putin goes crazy again" as long as Putin is the president though. Russia is not only a large economy, but it's a net exporter that accumulates lots of foreign reserves. The government bonds aren't that important for the Russian economy. If you get sizeable defaults in the private bond market since they're legally not allowed to pay them, that could cause more long-term issues for certain companies. How exactly is Russia going to get by when cut-off from the various import markets, even if it had the means to pay for the vast basket of goods they cannot produce under autarky? I’m unable to pull the figures right now, but something like more than 90% of Russian consumer goods are imported, right?
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Mar 9, 2022 02:01
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waydownLo posted:How exactly is Russia going to get by when cut-off from the various import markets, even if it had the means to pay for the vast basket of goods they cannot produce under autarky? I’m unable to pull the figures right now, but something like more than 90% of Russian consumer goods are imported, right? Simply put, they'll import them from elsewhere.
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Mar 9, 2022 02:05
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Xeom posted:Listen, I'm on the other side of things here and it seems, to me, as if America has lost its mind and were back at 2002-2003 bloodlust levels again, except this time with nuclear war as the finale. Fascinating. Which country is America invading on false pretenses to "liberate" it? I'm decidedly against it. The world should join in condemnation and sanction of such an act
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Mar 9, 2022 02:07
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the popes toes posted:Simply put, they'll import them from elsewhere. I would assume black markets will be much more of a thing moving forward
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Mar 9, 2022 02:07
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waydownLo posted:How exactly is Russia going to get by when cut-off from the various import markets, even if it had the means to pay for the vast basket of goods they cannot produce under autarky? I’m unable to pull the figures right now, but something like more than 90% of Russian consumer goods are imported, right? Dante fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 02:08
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Dante posted:Russia has its own currency. They don't have to "maintain with reserves" or anything like that to run the country. These sanctions will probably cause a recession of around 6-8% of GDP, which is bad, but it's not a short-term apocalypse or anything. A currency has to be exchangeable for something. They need a source of foreign currency to prop up the ruble and keep it from freefalling, and to purchase goods and services from overseas. They get some foreign currency from energy but not nearly enough, and their expenditures just exploded. They are currently running down their reserves and once those are gone there's no backstop. Their currency won't have value, inside or outside Russia. This isn't a new situation, it's just one we haven't seen happen to a major economy in decades. Wars are ruinous.
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Mar 9, 2022 02:08
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Dante posted:The countries that have sanctioned Russia represent roughly a third of its domestic imports, two-thirds are from other countries. Russia unsurprisingly trades a lot Asia, and China specifically. Imports as a percentage of GDP are about 20%, so a third of that is around 5-8% of their GDP that is directly affected. Furthermore Russia is lucky in that they produce the mother of all fungible export goods, oil&gas - which they will be able to continue to sell even the non-sanctioning world (though probably at a discount at this current situation). Russia isn't a small open economy, it's the 6th largest domestic market in the world. Russia spent the majority of the last century behind the iron curtain being heavily sanctioned by the west, it's not like a country turns to dust due to that. The west is primarily important to Russia as an export-market for oil and gas. Yes, but the Russian middle class is set to not exist any longer; and we aren’t talking about going back to old Soviet “second world” conditions either. They are hosed.
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Mar 9, 2022 02:10
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quote:My local newspaper has fallen in love with this picture as well, so tired of seeing his dumb face I can't say I blame them. Dude looks like a Moore era Bond villain's right hand man.
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Mar 9, 2022 02:11
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the popes toes posted:The steady propaganda stream of imagery, vids, statements, art - all of it, is remarkable. And contrasted with "Ukrainians are shelling themselves" by the Russian establishment makes them seem amateurish and ham-handed in comparison. At least you could depend on the Soviets for great propaganda art. After seeing the absolute poo poo-tier quality of Russian disinformation over the last few weeks, I think we can all agree that they do not work well under pressure or any semblance of a deadline. Also, that’s a lovely pic and all but good god, is that magazine in backwards?
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Mar 9, 2022 02:11
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Cenodoxus posted:After seeing the absolute poo poo-tier quality of Russian disinformation over the last few weeks, I think we can all agree that they do not work well under pressure or any semblance of a deadline. I think they are just playing to the lowest common denominator either chuds or tankies and they think it worked because they got away with poo poo and now "suddenly" it doesn't.
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Mar 9, 2022 02:13
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Often Abbreviated posted:A currency has to be exchangeable for something. They need a source of foreign currency to prop up the ruble and keep it from freefalling, and to purchase goods and services from overseas. They get some foreign currency from energy but not nearly enough, and their expenditures just exploded. They are currently running down their reserves and once those are gone there's no backstop. Their currency won't have value, inside or outside Russia. ZombieLenin posted:Yes, but the Russian middle class is set to not exist any longer; and we aren’t talking about going back to old Soviet “second world” conditions either. They are hosed. Dante fucked around with this message at 02:25 on Mar 9, 2022 |
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Mar 9, 2022 02:18
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