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slowdave posted:It would be delusional to think that the rest of EU would just stand by idly if it ever came to that. I'm sure they would send unlimited weapons, supplies, and money. Questioning whether the EU will go to war, which inevitably drags in the USA and UK, and meaning war between several nuclear powers, I don't think is delusional though. If they haven't stated they'd defend Finland, which it doesn't appear to be, then I'm not going to claim to know "of course" it will happen.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:39
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OddObserver posted:Not sure what that was all about -- unclear if that thing even happened? It being a weird attempt at psyops from Ukraine is pretty much the only thing that would make sense.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:40
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deathbysnusnu posted:Are tanks terrible, or is it just artillery is way more useful. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of debate on the effectiveness of the latter. No, and "sometimes but not always". In warfare, very rarely is one thing categorically always better than another. Effective militaries use combined arms--that is, different formations with different capabilities--and apply them situationally. Combined arms tactics and operations are very complex, and require training and experience to use effectively. Apart from the strategic blunders Putin is making, I think a lot of us with military experience are just as aghast at the operational ineptitude being demonstrated by Russian field grade officers. It's possible that Moscow is micro-managing individual BTGs--it must be tempting for political leaders to do so with UAVs and satellites streaming real-time video of fights--but it's still shocking.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:40
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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1502295754572013574
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Mar 11, 2022 16:41
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502298793542303747
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Mar 11, 2022 16:42
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Pook Good Mook posted:So according to this false flag, Ukraine was disciplined and waited 15 days to start shelling a militarily insignificant village in the territory of an ally of its enemy because it wanted a bigger challenge? tbh Ukraine has every right to shell Belarus if it wanted to, but obviously it wouldn't be strategic at all or helpful. I'm sure if Putin really does finally manage to get the Belarussians involved, their crack army will definitely turn the tide of this war 
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Mar 11, 2022 16:42
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TheRat posted:It being a weird attempt at psyops from Ukraine is pretty much the only thing that would make sense. Tbh, the Ukranians using Russia's reputation for doing false flags and psi-ops to gently caress with Belarus would not exactly be a bad plan if they could pull it off. I really don't think they are though
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Mar 11, 2022 16:42
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Pook Good Mook posted:So according to this false flag, Ukraine was disciplined and waited 15 days to start shelling a militarily insignificant village in the territory of an ally of its enemy because it wanted a bigger challenge? Occam’s razor suggests it was the Ukrainians, perhaps because troops in an active firefight retreated there or something, and who are now throwing out chaff as a way to prevent broadening the war. This seems to me vastly more likely than Russia secretly false flag bombing an ally, although we’re in madworld now so who knows. It’s ok, we can support Ukraine and still be tethered to reality.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:43
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Tuna-Fish posted:It doesn't loving work like that. In order to become a NATO member, you have to be accepted by every existing NATO member. As in, they have to hold parliamentary votes on the matter. If it looks like Russia is invading Finland, what are the chances that at least one NATO member isn't going to go "actually, letting Finland in right now is not in our best interests"? I would like to hear more about exactly which NATO member legislatures will vote against Finland’s fast track special admission and wouldn’t consider it a huge super duper red line deal that Russia is planning on expanding their aggression there. Name the countries. You can squint real hard and say welllll maybe parts of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea could be Russia. I don’t like it, but a settlement could include that. But Finland? Because the next step is Alaska. That’s Russia straight up claiming “anything we ever owned at any point is Russia, even if Russians don’t live there, and gently caress you”. Finland is 92% Finns, there is no Russian population to “rescue”. By that crazy standard Northern California is Russia.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:43
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OddObserver posted:Not sure what that was all about -- unclear if that thing even happened? Ukrainian military command have already once posted a supposedly verified report of Belarusian military (as opposed to Russians moving from Belarus) crossing the border and moving towards Kyiv, and later they just quietly forgot about it. It's probably psyops again.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:45
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:There are lots of theories about using such systems in the future (Stryker MGS etc), but there are a few problems, mostly that they die if you look at them funny. There are only a few man portable systems that can reliably kill a modern tank at long rage as you describe. However, there are a huge number of systems that can kill a lightly armored vehicle, including such things as "the autocannon on every infantry fighting vehicle in existence" and the RPG-7. Again, tanks are not useless. The United States Army and Marine Corps has proved this over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan. Lack of maintenance, lack of support (including logistics), and tactical incompetence are the things making them death traps for Russian tankers.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:45
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1502300880875491331?cxt=HHwWhsC45aGsn9kpAAAA
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Mar 11, 2022 16:48
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OddObserver posted:Not sure what that was all about -- unclear if that thing even happened?  https://twitter.com/ange_teri/status/1502307700151099396 This screenshot is quite different from the aforementioned statement.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:49
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DutchDupe posted:I'm sure they would send unlimited weapons, supplies, and money. Questioning whether the EU will go to war, which inevitably drags in the USA and UK, and meaning war between several nuclear powers, I don't think is delusional though. If they haven't stated they'd defend Finland, which it doesn't appear to be, then I'm not going to claim to know "of course" it will happen. Article 42.7 of the Treaty on the European Union: "If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States." They could not do this, but Finland and/or the EU Commission could drag them before the Court of Justice of the EU. In any event it would spell a death knell for the EU; if you don't respect this article of the TEU, why would you ever respect the rest of the treaties if the going gets too rough?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:51
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
Gee I wonder why MotolkoHelp, a Belorussian news source, would change the screenshot?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:51
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Beefeater1980 posted:Occam’s razor suggests it was the Ukrainians, perhaps because troops in an active firefight retreated there or something, and who are now throwing out chaff as a way to prevent broadening the war. This seems to me vastly more likely than Russia secretly false flag bombing an ally, although we’re in madworld now so who knows. Apparently no one in the towns heard anything, so it could have either been a psyop or Ukraine jumping the gun on questionable intelligence https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1502298377576452096?s=20&t=G02qOOgr8trIsdHP4fckhA There's no reason to suspect Ukraine would do anything in Belarus IMO. They have enough clearly Russian units to attack closer to Kyiv without entering Belarusian territory.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:52
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Discussion about what would or would not happen if an EU member is attacked is really just a variation on clancychat. Assume it won't happen for many reasons. Agree to disagree if you don't. Move on. It's a silly subject to keep bringing up.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:53
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Youth Decay posted:Gee I wonder why MotolkoHelp, a Belorussian news source, would change the screenshot? as far as I can tell, that twitter has spent two weeks posting all Russian troop movements in Belarus they can, so they don't exactly seem like the type to suddenly be pro-Russian
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Mar 11, 2022 16:53
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StarBegotten posted:When Putin looks Lukashenko do you think he feels pity or disgust? Like a dog owner finding that it has just vomited all over the good carpet.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:54
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I know fog of war has been a thing since military conflicts began, but drat I'm having a real hard time trying to figure out what to believe sometimes.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:55
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Deltasquid posted:Article 42.7 of the Treaty on the European Union: "If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. This shall not prejudice the specific character of the security and defence policy of certain Member States." well the primary purpose of the EU is an economic union not a military alliance, so the military aid part collapsing doesn't really impact the rest of it. it is nato that collapses if it doesn't honor its collective self-defense commitments because that's the point of nato.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:55
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:But Finland? Because the next step is Alaska. I think you got a little carried away here.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:55
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KitConstantine posted:Apparently no one in the towns heard anything, so it could have either been a psyop or Ukraine jumping the gun on questionable intelligence Its a Belarus source so I'd take it with a grain of salt.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:55
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PederP posted:Yes. The EU will disintegrate otherwise, because numerous other EU countries will join. Depending on the type of attack the response might be anything from a clusterfuck of staggered and varied responses to an immediate and united response. But it is absurd to believe an EU member could be invaded without the rest of the EU being forced to respond with military assistance. An invasion of Sweden or Finland (outside of grabbing some uninhabited island) would immediately drag in the rest of the EU, perhaps except Hungary. Where is the EU army level HQ located and who is the current EU equivalent of SACUER?
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Mar 11, 2022 16:55
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Just Another Lurker posted:Like a dog owner finding that it has just vomited all over the good carpet. Dog owners are capable of feeling affection towards the animal. Putin probably has to fight the impulse to spit in Batka's face and shove him to the ground every time he sees him.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:55
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Killing all these generals could be counterproductive. They might get replaced by someone competent.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:56
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steinrokkan posted:Dog owners are capable of feeling affection towards the animal. Putin probably has to fight the impulse to spit in Batka's face and shove him to the ground every time he sees him. Tbf it's an appropriate impulse to have in this case.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:56
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Youth Decay posted:Gee I wonder why MotolkoHelp, a Belorussian news source, would change the screenshot? Both of them are legitimate screenshots, I’m quite sure - what I’m saying is that there’s a significant difference between Facebook posts of Ukrainian Border Guards and Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:57
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notaspy posted:Killing all these generals could be counterproductive. That assumes there is anyone competent.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:57
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Sinteres posted:I think you got a little carried away here. Maybe, but Putin’s initial speech on the war was dipping its toe in.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:57
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I know fog of war has been a thing since military conflicts began, but drat I'm having a real hard time trying to figure out what to believe sometimes. Pretty much don't believe anything unless you see actual evidence. There's so much bullshit flying around.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:57
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evilweasel posted:well the primary purpose of the EU is an economic union not a military alliance, so the military aid part collapsing doesn't really impact the rest of it. it is nato that collapses if it doesn't honor its collective self-defense commitments because that's the point of nato. Getting way off-topic at this point, but the European Economic Community was an economic union. The European Union, since the Lisbon Treaties, is explicitly an economic and political union with common justice, security and defence policies.
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Mar 11, 2022 16:58
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evilweasel posted:well the primary purpose of the EU is an economic union not a military alliance, so the military aid part collapsing doesn't really impact the rest of it. it is nato that collapses if it doesn't honor its collective self-defense commitments because that's the point of nato. I think the more relevant factor would be that a lot of EU militaries are staring at all those unexploded Russian tanks and salivating. Like, some of these countries have been waiting for a chance to kick Russia while it's down for practically a hundred years.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:00
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Youth Decay posted:Gee I wonder why MotolkoHelp, a Belorussian news source, would change the screenshot? Uhm, it's not a pro-Lukashenko news source, if that's what you're implying. MotolkoHelp and all their socials are literally banned as an extremist organisation in Belarus for their role in the 2020 protests. The first screenshot was originally posted by Unian, by the way.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:00
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Alchenar posted:Where is the EU army level HQ located and who is the current EU equivalent of SACUER? Irrelevant. The EU is a political union. Military integration is not yet complete, so any combined action would likely be chaotic until France just took command. But the idea that the EU is just a economic union is 30 years post-factual. Discussing how exactly the narrative would play out *if* an attack happened is just a variation of clancychat. It is every bit as unlikely as an attack on a NATO member, if not less so.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:01
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:I would like to hear more about exactly which NATO member legislatures will vote against Finland’s fast track special admission and wouldn’t consider it a huge super duper red line deal that Russia is planning on expanding their aggression there. It's now a honest to god fascists expansionist state. They can pick whatever bullshit reason they want to attack Finland, e.g. liberating the Finish people from their neo-nazi government, protecting Russian kindergartens in St. Petersburg from western missiles in Finland, a preemptive strike before Finland can attack Russia, as a response to Finish provocations like shelling a Russian border town, etc. Honestly, if it comes down to a referendum, I'm not sure if a majority of Germans/French/Spaniards/Brits are going to vote to send their kids go die in Finnish mud. Blaming Finland for not joining when they could have is gonna be a huge talking point. Also, allies honoring their commitments is never automatic and guaranteed. And it's why the US has tripwire troops across Europe and Asia and why France left NATO during the cold war.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:01
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I know fog of war has been a thing since military conflicts began, but drat I'm having a real hard time trying to figure out what to believe sometimes. Same, although this seems like something that should get some sort of hard confirmation one way or the other at some point, as either a place in Belarus did get bombed or it didn't and there's going to be quite a few people who really want to know the answer to that. Edit: Also most importantly people in charge of the Belarus army should definitely know. dr_rat fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 17:03
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Nieuw Amsterdam posted:I would like to hear more about exactly which NATO member legislatures will vote against Finland’s fast track special admission and wouldn’t consider it a huge super duper red line deal that Russia is planning on expanding their aggression there. The usual suspect - Hungary. Though it's also possible enough countries would be yelling at Orban to knock it off, that it wouldn't become a problem (like with sanctions).
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Mar 11, 2022 17:03
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GABA ghoul posted:Honestly, if it comes down to a referendum, I'm not sure if a majority of Germans/French/Spaniards/Brits are going to vote to send their kids go die in Finnish mud. Blaming Finland for not joining when they could have is gonna be a huge talking point. Also, allies honoring their commitments is never automatic and guaranteed. And it's why the US has tripwire troops across Europe and Asia and why France left NATO during the cold war. I would be less concerned about that given what's happening in Ukraine. The Russian military just isn't good enough to be worried about needing to commit millions of troops to dig in in pitched infantry battles. NATO support would be mostly from the air, bombing anything that moves, until it's more of a mopping-up exercise. The danger would be "do we really want to risk nuclear war" because Russia is clearly no longer the USSR when it comes to shipping a million men and tanks into an invasion of Europe, where it is NATO that needs to threaten nuclear first-use because it is afraid of losing the conventional war.
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Mar 11, 2022 17:14
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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/stat...ingawful.com%2F
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Mar 11, 2022 17:16
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