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the popes toes posted:1) Time for a confidence vote!
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Mar 11, 2022 18:51
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CuddleCryptid posted:It must be a very strange feeling to have the nation that has been a constant threat to you for decades suddenly turn out to be nearly harmless. It's like if we found out that nuclear weapons didn't work anymore because of 5G towers or whatever and now nuclear annihilation can't happen. It is, actually. I also know the exact place where I would most likely die, if we were attacked by this super competent and "losses are meaningless"-styled death grinder of USSR/Russia. Now we see that they are the guys who in live grenade exercise throws the pin at the enemy and puts the grenade in his pocket to keep count. Every company has at least 1, and now we see that the Red Menace made an army out of them. EDIT: Its a weird mix of "what the gently caress are you guys doing", "this was supposed to be our enemy?" and "haha get hosed" when reading the news and these threads. Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 18:51
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Captain Kosmos posted:https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1502290748762374145 Ha! But this does speak to the idea that the US has some extremely high level sources within the Kremlin infrastructure. That cannot make a person as paranoid as Putin happy.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:51
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KitConstantine posted:Russian delegate is speaking again,"the more you accuse us of lying the more we think we're telling the truth"; these lab are ~secret~ that's why you don't know about them!!! My condolences and thanks to anyone willing to wade through the fecal swamp that Russia's talking heads are spewing these days, so we can have it on record just how transparently Russia is lying. I can't do it, I'm quite certain downing a bottle of vodka on an empty stomach would cause me less brain damage.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:52
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E Depois do Adeus posted:Apologies if this has been covered already but how much of an agricultural yield shortfall is this war inducing? Because however harsh the sanctions are, the effect of legit food shortages is going to be an order of magnitude greater in scope. Disastrous. World food prices were already at record highs even before the invasion.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:52
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CuddleCryptid posted:It must be a very strange feeling to have the nation that has been a constant threat to you for decades suddenly turn out to be nearly harmless. It's like if we found out that nuclear weapons didn't work anymore because of 5G towers or whatever and now nuclear annihilation can't happen. I mean, some of us still remember *exactly* the moment the Berlin wall fell, for similar reasons.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:54
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SaTaMaS posted:Disastrous. World food prices were already at record highs even before the invasion. Worse still, Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat to already insecure or extremely dependent coutnries including Lebanon, Yemen, Egypt. Paradoxically Western countries that are close to Ukraine are relatively shielded, but the commoditiy prices will rise worldwide, of course.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:55
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CommieGIR posted:The problem is: Russia did annex it, but nobody really recognizes the annexation, so threatening to nuke people over territory nobody recognizes as yours would be equivalent to them threatening to nuke the US for helping Zelensky. That's not remotely the same, what a bizarre analogy. Whether it's recognized or not, it's de facto been under their control for years (on top of de jure from their perspective), and it doesn't matter what other countries think as long as they're willing to defend it. And making it clear that Ukrainian forces would be met with a tactical nuclear response (a threat Ukraine couldn't afford to risk even if they thought it was a bluff) is massively more credible/less apocalyptic than nuking the US. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 11, 2022 18:55
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https://twitter.com/Mariia_Zolkina/status/1502306362960850949?cxt=HHwWisC5wa7rodkpAAAA
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Mar 11, 2022 18:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I mean, some of us still remember *exactly* the moment the Berlin wall fell, for similar reasons. I have this vague memory of watching the TV at my grandparent's house, with Brokaw at the Wall, seeing people climb over it, chip parts of it off, etc
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Mar 11, 2022 18:56
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Sinteres posted:That's not remotely the same, what a bizarre analogy. Whether it's recognized or not, it's de facto been under their control for years (on top of de jure from their perspective), and it doesn't matter what other countries think as long as they're willing to defend it. And making it clear that Ukrainian forces would be met with a tactical nuclear response (a threat Ukraine couldn't afford to risk even if they thought it was a bluff) is massively more credible/less apocalyptic than nuking the US. Putin is not going to tactically nuke Ukrainian forces even if they enter Crimea, that's an even more bizarre claim. If he was going to deploy tactical nukes he'd already be doing so.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:56
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Orthanc6 posted:My condolences and thanks to anyone willing to wade through the fecal swamp that Russia's talking heads are spewing these days, so we can have it on record just how transparently Russia is lying. I can't do it, I'm quite certain downing a bottle of vodka on an empty stomach would cause me less brain damage. I can only take small doses tbh. It's infuriating. Ukraine is still speaking and he keeps calling the Russian delegate "the gentleman sitting in the soviet seat" lol. The mother had her baby by the way. Named her Veronica - the Ukrainian delegate showed a picture. Also YouTube about to get banned next. https://twitter.com/YouTubeInsider/status/1502335085122666500?t=XbdOsskoWzCiN5eeiTKm4g&s=19
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Mar 11, 2022 18:57
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quote:By your actions, you have disowned the system that made you. My host brother was able to escape Chernihiv into the EU. My host mother, father, and the orphans they're caring for remain there. My host dad related the story of the bomber shot down with 100m of their home. And the pilot who survived who shot a Ukrainian man trying to kill him with a shovel. He tried to shoot another person but missed and was captured. Not sure if the unexploded bomb next door has been defused or not. I saw reports that water was cut off this morning in Chernihiv. Haven't heard from them yet.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:57
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CommieGIR posted:Putin is not going to tactically nuke Ukrainian forces even if they enter Crimea, that's an even more bizarre claim. If he was going to deploy tactical nukes he'd already be doing so. The chain of logic you're building is missing a few links, it doesn't make any sense to say that he hasn't done it while he's winning anyway so there's no way he would even if he was massively losing.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:57
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CommieGIR posted:Ruining Russia's really crappy casus belli attempts has been an Intel win for almost half a year now, including probably delaying the actual invasion because US Intel kept openly announcing it. Nah, consistent with what we're seeing, the invasion was primarily held back by traffic control issues. False flag attempts by the proxies in the week leading up to the door kick were inept by every metric even if Western intel hadn't been preempting them. ED: also worth pointing out that loving Zhirinovsky was only off by a day, back in December.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:58
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CommieGIR posted:If he was going to deploy tactical nukes he'd already be doing so. He still think's he's winning.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:59
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the popes toes posted:1) If you are unhappy about the war and the elections have gone from light rigging to full North Korea there is now only one way to change this disastrous war. Do they not teach the Russo-Japanese war in Russian schools?
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Mar 11, 2022 18:59
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I have this vague memory of watching the TV at my grandparent's house, with Brokaw at the Wall, seeing people climb over it, chip parts of it off, etc I remember my mother crying in the morning before school, and me being puzzled why the gently caress she was crying if she was happy.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:59
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Yeah let's just calm down with speculation of Ukraine running Russia off. Until we see Russian units retreating or surrendering in large numbers they are still winning. The Russian army is doing spectacularly poorly though. It will reshape geopolitics for a generation.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:59
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Sinteres posted:The chain of logic you're building is missing a few links, it doesn't make any sense to say that he hasn't done it while he's winning anyway so there's no way he would even if he was massively losing. Yeah I'm not engaging in this Clancychat about "Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces if they start gaining an upper hand like they've largely had". Also: You can post here without being pretentious.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:59
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Shes Not Impressed posted:
You might not today - looks like signal is down in that region for the moment https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1502332408884080645?t=mApzpbj8dkVWqLo24bG0wg&s=19 The Russians are using cell service to communicate so they probably want it fixed as well.
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Mar 11, 2022 18:59
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CuddleCryptid posted:It must be a very strange feeling to have the nation that has been a constant threat to you for decades suddenly turn out to be nearly harmless. It's like if we found out that nuclear weapons didn't work anymore because of 5G towers or whatever and now nuclear annihilation can't happen. Sorta, have been thinking looong time that Russian military is just paper tiger, cause they just gently caress up everything, and when we are showed how good they are, it's just some acrobatics that doesn't have anything to do with fighting. Like that VDV video. They just try too much to show how good and powerful they are. Like they are compensating something. But didn't think they are this bad. Just so incredible bad. So so bad 
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Mar 11, 2022 19:00
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KitConstantine posted:You might not today - looks like signal is down in that region for the moment Ah, possibly to prepare for Belarussian forces crossing over. I know villages other volunteers lived in may be completely obliterated now. And forests and fields we walked in are probably mined to hell and back.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:01
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Youth Decay posted:For what it's worth, Zelensky's address from this morning was notably more confident than his previous ones. He claims they have reached a "strategic turning point". I certainly hope he's right. Either way, he's one brave SOB. CommieGIR posted:The problem is: Russia did annex it, but nobody really recognizes the annexation, so threatening to nuke people over territory nobody recognizes as yours would be equivalent to them threatening to nuke the US for helping Zelensky. Even if the Ukrainian military managed to occupy Crimea, I don't think it would be possible to re-integrate it into Ukraine. As illegitimate and illegal as the referendum to join Russia was, most of the region's population did want to join Russia in 2014, and I doubt they've changed their mind on that in the years since. I can't imagine the Ukrainian government has any interest in dealing with yet another counterinsurgency campaign right on the heels of this war.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:01
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CommieGIR posted:Yeah I'm not engaging in this Clancychat about "Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces if they start gaining an upper hand like they've largely had". An upper hand is one thing, invading and conquering Crimea is quite another.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:01
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CommieGIR posted:Putin is not going to tactically nuke Ukrainian forces even if they enter Crimea, that's an even more bizarre claim. If he was going to deploy tactical nukes he'd already be doing so. But he did have a point, though. One-sided annexation is meaningless, since saying that something is yours does not make it happen, no matter how many historical or cultural connections one has to that area. There is an UN decision saying that Crimea isn't part of Russia, it is part of Ukraine, only occupied by Russia. Similarly as Northern Cyprus isn't independent nation or part of Turkey, or South Korea occupied part of North Korea (or vice versa). It does also work the other way around though, and that is why Taiwan cannot completely escape being part of China until China says so. Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Mar 11, 2022 |
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Mar 11, 2022 19:01
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Trump posted:That's twisting the reality of the situation. They had no territorial claims, but the Allies had every interest in taking and occupying Germany as it was seen as the only way to destroy Nazi Germanys ability to wage war. Correct, and again I am not drawing a direct parallel, but if, for example you imagine a world where the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine and exits Ukrainian territory, but still won’t give up and is lobbing missiles and artillery into Ukraine, it might make sense that the Ukrainians decide the only way to win the war (stop Russia) is to enter Russia proper with their military. Or, even more generally, in a war it sometimes makes operational sense to enter the territory of your opponent with your military on a limited basis even if you have no desires on your opponents territory in a peace settlement.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:02
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Sinteres posted:An upper hand is one thing, invading and conquering Crimea is quite another. Theorycrafting about Putin using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine is also quite another.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:02
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of Syrians - famed Syrian rebel fighter "Abu Tow" is apparently still looking to come fight in Ukraine ...Why is Ukraine increasingly becoming a Metal Gear Solid game? This poo poo is getting ridiculous
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Mar 11, 2022 19:03
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Sinteres posted:The chain of logic you're building is missing a few links, it doesn't make any sense to say that he hasn't done it while he's winning anyway so there's no way he would even if he was massively losing. The situation where Ukraine has such a significant advantage that they could invade Crimea would certainly be preceded by an offer to let the Russians evacuate and concede it in exchange for letting them go home alive. We're a long ways from that.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:03
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CommieGIR posted:Theorycrafting about Putin using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine is also quite another. Defensive use of nuclear weapons isn't a far flung wild theory at all, it's the default assumption of a post-nuclear world. It's people suggesting Ukraine can invade Russia in return if they get the upper hand who are engaging in clancychat.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:04
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KitConstantine posted:You might not today - looks like signal is down in that region for the moment
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Mar 11, 2022 19:04
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Sinteres posted:Defensive use of nuclear weapons isn't a far flung wild theory at all, it's the default assumption of a post-nuclear world. It's people suggesting Ukraine can invade Russia in return if they get the upper hand who are engaging in clancychat. Except its never been done and would likely escalate the entire situation. And its clancychat not founded in any observed action. When was the last time Russia used nuclear weapons defensively? Never? Got it.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:05
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Sinteres posted:That's not remotely the same, what a bizarre analogy. Whether it's recognized or not, it's de facto been under their control for years (on top of de jure from their perspective), and it doesn't matter what other countries think as long as they're willing to defend it. And making it clear that Ukrainian forces would be met with a tactical nuclear response (a threat Ukraine couldn't afford to risk even if they thought it was a bluff) is massively more credible/less apocalyptic than nuking the US. Maybe we can argue over this once the Ukrainians show they are capable of mounting offensive action to clear the Russians out of the areas they took in the first two weeks of the war. They best they have shown is the ability to mount local counter attacks at this point with limited success. We are a long way off from the liberation of the Crimea.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:07
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Have Some Flowers! posted:I'm honestly surprised Ukraine still has any semblance of power or internet. I assumed a modern assault on a nation where the aggressor had years to prepare would involve just absolute bombing/missile devastation of all infrastructure on like, Day 2. That would involve modern tactics, not tactical manuals that were apparently ordered on AliExpress or Wish.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:09
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MikeC posted:Maybe we can argue over this once the Ukrainians show they are capable of mounting offensive action to clear the Russians out of the areas they took in the first two weeks of the war. They best they have shown is the ability to mount local counter attacks at this point with limited success. We are a long way off from the liberation of the Crimea. Yeah there's no way it gets that far, I just thought starting with what I thought was a pretty uncontroversial position that the clearly absurd idea of invading a nuclear superpower is impossible was a place to establish some minimal agreement, but it doesn't seem so.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:09
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Majorian posted:
To be clear the real issue is that Crimea has been ethnically cleansed by moving in large numbers of ethnic Russians and using soft power to reduce the number of ethnic Ukrainians and Tatars. This kind of government directed migration — “demographic engineering” — is well known to Russia (see e.g. this article which discusses both sides of the Sino-Soviet split doing it to each other) Any attempt to hold a vote today could not retroactively legitimize the phony 2014 vote
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Mar 11, 2022 19:11
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Rad Russian posted:Seems like a premature thing for everyone to discuss anyway. Ukraine is still losing territory, albeit slower than expected. The consensus I see from experts say Russia will win if they're willing to siege and shell cities. While their tanks and planes have been a joke, they have an almost unlimited supply of artillery shells using a stock built up over 50 years. Things that don't need any maintenance or electronics. In fairness, though, just because they HAVE the shells doesn't necessarily mean they have the logistical capability to actually get those shells to the front given what a mess Russian logistics has been throughout. I THINK this has been posted before, but this article is a pretty interesting in-depth look at the nature of the Russian logistical system. A couple of key quotes: quote:The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps. To reach a 180-mile range, the Russian army would have to double truck allocation to 400 trucks for each of the material-technical support brigades. To gain familiarity with Russian logistic requirements and lift resources, a useful starting point is the Russian combined arms army. They all have different force structures, but on paper, each combined army is assigned a material-technical support brigade. Each material-technical support brigade has two truck battalions with a total of 150 general cargo trucks with 50 trailers and 260 specialized trucks per brigade. The Russian army makes heavy use of tube and rocket artillery fire, and rocket ammunition is very bulky. Although each army is different, there are usually 56 to 90 multiple launch rocket system launchers in an army. Replenishing each launcher takes up the entire bed of the truck. If the combined arms army fired a single volley, it would require 56 to 90 trucks just to replenish rocket ammunition. That is about a half of a dry cargo truck force in the material-technical support brigade just to replace one volley of rockets. There is also between six to nine tube artillery battalions, nine air defense artillery battalions, 12 mechanized and recon battalions, three to five tank battalions, mortars, anti-tank missiles, and small arms ammunition — not to mention, food, engineering, medical supplies, and so on. Those requirements are harder to estimate, but the potential resupply requirements are substantial. The Russian army force needs a lot of trucks just for ammunition and dry cargo replenishment. quote:Logistic planners in Russian Western Command have to plan for a scenario in which Baltic states choose to fight a battle in their capital. Historically, urban combat consumes massive amounts of ammunition and takes months to conclude. During the two most prominent examples, the battles of Grozny in the Chechen wars and the Battle of Mosul in 2016, defenders tied down four to 10 times their numbers for up to four months. At Grozny, Russians were firing up to 4,000 shells a day — that’s 50 trucks a day. quote:The ammunition consumption would be massive. During the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, some Russian forces expended an entire basic load of ammunition in 12 hours. Assuming the same rates, the Russians would have to replace substantial amounts of ammunition every 12 to 24 hours. If the Ukrainians can consistently blow up Russian trucks (and they've shown no signs of stopping yet) bombing Kyiv into the ground might prove more difficult than it seems on paper.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:12
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https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-set-to-slam-russia-with-fresh-sanctions-on-luxury-goods-iron-steel-and-more/quote:“We will ban the export of any EU luxury goods from our countries to Russia, as a direct blow to the Russian elite,” she announced.
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Mar 11, 2022 19:12
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guess italy finally got pressured to end the exemption for luxury handbags in the sanctions
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Mar 11, 2022 19:13
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