|
Kraftwerk posted:Is there any truth to those Reddit threads that the ukranian army is about to get wiped out or that legionnaires are being sent to the front unsupported and systematically wiped out? Ukraine's army continues to be in a very perilous position and in some sense they are "about to be wiped out"; it's their job to prevent that, and there's no indication that Russia is anywhere close to sealing the deal, but it's absolutely within the range of possibility. Where that post sounds like propaganda/tankie fanfic to me is that it says Russia is systematically killing as much of the Ukrainian army as possible, and paints this strictly as a consequence of continuing military resistance despite the fact that Russia has openly announced that it has lists of people to round up, it has been acting on those lists in occupied areas, and those lists almost certainly include a large portion of Ukraine's military officers at a minimum.
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 11:39 |
|
|
Shageletic posted:I'd love to know any of any examples when the US pumping a firehose of military expenditure into a foreign country has turned out the best path forward. How about the Second World War? Or did American imperialism during that war mean a prolonged war where it would have been better for everyone had the United States not armed Great Britain or the Soviet Union and had pressed Churchill and Stalin to make peace with Hitler? Edit Honestly a lot of this so called leftist opposition to the arming of Ukraine—a real leftist supports the armed resistance to fascist invasions—reminds me a lot of the historical writing off of Great Britain after the fall of France. I am very glad Churchill was able to out maneuver the peace with Hitler faction. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 14:26 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:19
|
|
|
SaTaMaS posted:I don't understand why India is being so crass about the conflict. They're trying to play both sides in order to get what...some rusty Russian military hardware and some oil? They don't even import that much oil from Russia, just 2-3%. They are probably buying into idea that it's a proxy war US started with Maidan protests.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:19
|
|
|
Fine, don't send guns to Ukraine. Send guys with guns instead. This isn't some slap fight over some rocks in the middle of the ocean, this kind of war of conquest can't be tolerated. The fastest and most humane way to end this is to blow up every Russian unit asap, and Ukraine alone might not be able of doing it.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:20
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:Found a copy of the thread by Googling - on /pol The part about cruise missiles dropping, dead bodies everywhere and air siren not going off at least matches what has been reported about that western base in Norwegian papers.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:21
|
|
|
Comstar posted:edit- beaten like a Russian convoy spotted by a drone after not using any camo on their vehicles. And if the war continues, we will escalate further by picking exclusively Russian villains in the next set of Marvel movies.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:22
|
|
|
Shageletic posted:I'd love to know any of any examples when the US pumping a firehose of military expenditure into a foreign country has turned out the best path forward. The best historical analogue to the current situation is lend-lease in WW2. It worked out pretty well. EFB: By a country mile and about a dozen other posters lol
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:22
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Who are you gonna believe, the clear photos and professional summaries posted every day based on sourced data, or random reddit posts that just so happen to say exactly what Russia would want you to believe? there was a guy who posted actual photos of the aftermath of the base attack along with his account of what went on, the guy had a long enough post history (pre-dating ukraine war) that it seemed pretty credible to me. it's since been deleted, unfortunately, but stuff like this, basically: quote:"Yes, I was here today and blown off the top bunk of my bunk bed in the barracks by the first missile. I made a long post about it but my posts don't show on this thread for some reason. This is where all the foreign legion troops are, the 35 killed were all Ukrainian mostly due to a direct hit on their barracks next to mine. The base is destroyed, the weapons depot destroyed, possibly the end of the legion. About 60 people with their heads on straight including myself left after the attack. They're sending untrained guys to the front with little ammo and poo poo AKs and they're getting killed. The guys who stayed got bombed again in the afternoon and casualties aren't clear. If you still want to to join them I'm not sure what the process will be since literally all the infrastructure supporting the training/assignments of volunteers is all destroyed. The guys who are there now will all be going to Kviv and many will die, the legion is totally outgunned and has a few crazy Ukrainian leaders. After the attack one officer wanted to march everyone to Kviv and fight. Absolute insanity. Stay home."
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:22
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Foreign legionnaires getting wiped out maybe? There was a guy who posted somewhat hysterically about how his group got wiped out, but also posted about how whole ZSU collapsing! without any reason to know anything, so it was kinda sus. ZSU already have more untrained and barely trained reserves than they can use. A couple days ago? there was an interesting twitter thread by a war reporter about why you shouldn't go volunteer in someone else's war. They never know what to do with you and don't have gear or time to train you. My understanding is that Ukraine is only accepting foreigners with military experience, which should help alleviate this somewhat. There are many potential uses of such personnel, though, even with a language barrier:
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:22
|
|
|
alex314 posted:They are probably buying into idea that it's a proxy war US started with Maidan protests. They also seem to have a list of grievances against Ukraine such as not supporting them in UNSC or taking their side in territorial disputes etc. And Amerikkka of course
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:24
|
|
|
Folks panic-posting Putin's own war propaganda really doesn't help things here. As a Finn I'm pretty cool with all the help our country got in the Winter War that ended yesterday 82 years ago, it really made the difference. Despite facing an imperialist power and insurmountable odds, the imperialist power believed their own propaganda enough to make a series of staggering strategic blunders that Finns exploited to the hilt and so here we are, still independent, one of the most democratic countries in the world, basically everything that Putin's Russia isn't. It's pretty clear to us that fighting and sacrificing is far pregerable to allowing our dear imperialist neighbour to come and take all that away from us. Especially since we saw what happened to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, East Germany, Checkoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and especially Ukraine. For some odd reason most all of those are now NATO countries and it sure as hell has zero to do with being "belligerent against Russia" or whatever the gently caress the internet leftist talking point is now. It's pretty easy for me to understand the position Ukrainians are in. gently caress everyone who tries to tell that their sacrifices are in vain, that they should just give up and roll over and allow themselves be cannibalized. There are bigger things at play and things worth fighting and dying for. I sincerely wish that all the contrarian leftist keyboard warriors find something else than contrarian totalitarian politics to fill the hole inside them that forces them to post.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:27
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:there was a guy who posted actual photos of the aftermath of the base attack along with his account of what went on, the guy had a long enough post history (pre-dating ukraine war) that it seemed pretty credible to me. it's since been deleted, unfortunately, but stuff like this, basically: Make no mistake, the base near the Polish border got completely hosed. Besides that the post seems to just be some opportunist who thought war fighting in Ukraine will be a video game, and not an underdog war for survival versus a modern army. No poo poo, you get shot at in war. That’s why not everyone is or can be a soldier, because you’re supposed to shoot back when that happens, not ask for a Candy Crush sauna break in Austria.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:29
|
|
|
Here's an article in a Norwegian paper that interviewed a Swedish soldier who was at the base in Ukraine https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/i/Poz53J/svensk-fremmedkriger-om-soendagens-angrep-et-brennende-helvete Shouldn't be too bad to google translate it, but it pretty much matches what the middle part of that large reddit screenshot says. cinci zoo sniper posted:Make no mistake, the base near the Polish border got completely hosed. Besides that the post seems to just be some opportunist who thought war fighting in Ukraine will be a video game, and not an underdog war for survival versus a modern army. No poo poo, you get shot at in war. That’s why not everyone is or can be a soldier, because you’re supposed to shoot back when that happens, not ask for a Candy Crush sauna break in Austria. I'm starting to see a few of those popping up, people who have maybe been with NATO in afghanistan or whatever thinking they were in for another similar war and just getting completely shellshocked and running back home. TheRat fucked around with this message at 14:32 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:30
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:there was a guy who posted actual photos of the aftermath of the base attack along with his account of what went on, the guy had a long enough post history (pre-dating ukraine war) that it seemed pretty credible to me. it's since been deleted, unfortunately, but stuff like this, basically: Calling a group of what, 200 foreign volunteers, a legion in a war where each side fields tens of thousands seemed overly ambitious. I doubt Russia is going to bring a significant number of Syrians either.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:31
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:For what it's worth, the majority of leftists i've seen 'owning the libs' don't think it's good that Russia invaded. They aren't pro-Russia, there's no delusion that they are a communist nor leftward country. They do, however, believe that this war is not winnable in any way for Ukraine, and the longer they wait to negotiate a surrender, the worse their bargaining position becomes. this argument is kind of annoying to me because yes, theoretically if you do some sort of risk/reward calculus you might determine that surrender is the better option to restore peace to ukraine. but that's short-sighted because it depends a lot on russia and the attitude of the ukrainian public. the iraq war didn't end because the government capitulated, nor did afghanistan end because the taliban were defeated in 2001. imposing a bitter peace on ukraine with an unacceptable outcome is a recipe for decades of right-wing violence. like, who is to say you don't end up with another maidan in a few years and we are right back where we started? or an imposed pro-russia leader being ousted by a right-wing military coup? plainly ukraine needs to take some sort of deal, they are not likely to send russia packing back to the border without fighting of such a length of time that the country is essentially completely destroyed. but the idea that they can just accept a surrender and loss of sovereignty so now everything is hunky dory is absurd. they have to get terms they can live with, and they may perceive that as only being possible by inflicting enough battlefield losses on russia that they decide the war is no longer worth it. Concerned Citizen fucked around with this message at 14:34 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:32
|
|
|
My Hot Take remains that Ukraine is an inherently precarious position because they've been invaded by a big country with a large advantage in heavy weapons, but we've also seen zero evidence of Russia actually fixing any of the huge list of problems that have kept them from being able to turn their theoretical power into a decisive victory on the actual battlefield in real life. I'm guessing nobody (not even the Russians) knows their true losses, but it seems like they're all out of proportion to the results on the ground. Like it's hard to say how many roasted conscripts are worth X miles of highway surrounded by impassible mud flats, but it can't be a lot even from a callous military calculus perspective. The only way this was ever going to big-picture be worth it for Russia was if they won a decisive victory very fast, Ukraine's military and political system collapsed overnight and they could put in a puppet and go home before the world could really react. Problem is this is basically a fantasy scenario that Russia had no idea how to make a realty beyond "show up and assume poo poo will work out." Which, uh, it didn't. Now it seems like the longer this goes the worse the odds get for Russia. On one side you have escalating foreign aid, while on the other you have infinity sanctions on an economy that was kind of shitass to start with. Even if Russia beats Ukraine's standing army eventually, that's only the tip of the iceberg.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:34
|
|
|
Eyewitness accounts are valuable but also pretty dubious. There was a battle in the 1918 civil war in Finland where the opposing sides, Whites and Reds, met for a brief clash. The whites reported a battle with a 1000 man strong red army that they managed to stop just in time, with at least 100 casualties to the opposing side. The first reds that came back were in panic and told that everyone else was killed the last man, and only they managed to escape. In reality the Reds were 100-200 man strong, advanced and lost ten men, and mostly just turned back because it got too dark to fight.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:34
|
|
|
PederP posted:There are no 'solutions' to this. Ukraine doesn't need a solution. They were invaded. Hopefully they will not be subjugated. The enemy is not irrational - the enemy is a belligerent imperialist, for whom context is relevant as an excuse for aggression. There is not reaching an accord with such an enemy unless you're willing to accept a world order of imperialist sphere-of-influence. Obviously its easier for those without connections to be able to armchair analyze this. I know a separate thread was created for the Clancychat Nuclear war thing, but has there been another thread created to talk about these sorts of things? I for one really appreciate the effort-posts that have been done in the past that aren't just speculative scenarios. I know for myself, I've been pretty nihilistic and fatalistic about this whole thing because it seems like no matter what, Ukraine is hosed. They win, Ukraine is still hosed. They lose, Ukraine is even more hosed. Honestly, I don't give a gently caress about NATO or the West or whatever. Glad they're sending support, and hope they continue to do so. But look, there are some "leftists" or whatever you want to call who before this conflict, have been skeptical of NATO and Western foreign policy so when an event like this happens people seem to start grasping for straws and start unironically repeating Russian foreign ministry tweets or posting about Iraq and the Vietnam war. News flash , Iraq, Vietnam and this war can all be terrible events. In fact, the fact that Iraq happened because of American insanity and post-9/11 aggression should have been a lesson but Russia instead decided to take literally the dumbest lesson from American imperialism and say "hey, I know, let's double-down on that, they failed where we can succeed!". At the same time though, realpolitik is deceptively convincing, like all "beep boop rational actor" type theories. It just sucks i guess that the only competing framework or belief system is starry eyed liberalism about international norms about free markets and whatever. I honestly just want something here to help me understand this stupid conflict but it's been tough with how the "sides" on this political front have now been taken. The fact that the only two outcomes for my family and connections destiny now is either to die in a storm of MLRS or to clean toilets in the EU under the benevolent free market has been tough the past few weeks. I get it, I have direct family there, believe me when I say I know this is a personal and emotional situation. I spent the first few days of the war getting a hold of family who had to flee eastern cities to get to safety, and others have now fled into Europe. I dip in here every now and then to do my regular doomscroll through the events. This thread serves a really fantastic resource for just information so I hope we can maintain the purpose here to focus on that and not have it poo poo up by ideological navel gazing, but if there is a thread going on for that that I can lurk in too I would very much appreciate it. So far I've only found the clancy chat nuke talk, the TFR air power thread and then uncritical reposts of homonazi Stepan Bandera and Azov battalion in every city in C-SPAM. Is there a place I can instead read really smart-people actually debate this stuff so I can check-out of the doom-scrolling and just learn instead? edit: also I really want to acknowledge that I know I am totally that Chess critique copypaste or whatever about someone coming in really late after a slew of tedious posting and concern-trolling. I just want to acknowledge that upfront that I am very late to the game, so I know for everyone here who's been here regularly is tired of it. I am one of those weirdos who actually wants to read someone debate with some DSA tankie or whatever. Is there a thread i can do that in? edit 2: sorry, I also realize this post was all over the place. Apologies if its a mess of random ideas. Like I said, this has been a really tough past few weeks and as someone who used to consider themselves somewhat sympathetic to more left-leaning thought I've felt discombobulated that my only alternative viewpoint is Biden liberalism is going to save Europe or whatever. Oysters Autobio fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:37
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Here's an article in a Norwegian paper that interviewed a Swedish soldier who was at the base in Ukraine Jesper Söder (dude in article) is pretty well known in Sweden. Joined Kurdish YPG to fight IS. MrOnBicycle fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:39
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:Make no mistake, the base near the Polish border got completely hosed. Besides that the post seems to just be some opportunist who thought war fighting in Ukraine will be a video game, and not an underdog war for survival versus a modern army. No poo poo, you get shot at in war. That’s why not everyone is or can be a soldier, because you’re supposed to shoot back when that happens, not ask for a Candy Crush sauna break in Austria. probably the case for most american veterans who went off to this war. you spend some years dunking on militia-types in afghanistan with air supremacy and absurd firepower advantages, maybe you don't realize you're signing up to get dunked on yourself by russian missiles and tanks. which is to say, it is probably a really bad idea to join the ukrainian foreign legion.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:40
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:Did . . .did you really think this was good argument? It's not an argument I was actually curious. Yeah, lend lease was a good example. The rest of the twentieth century was not.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:44
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:probably the case for most american veterans who went off to this war. you spend some years dunking on militia-types in afghanistan with air supremacy and absurd firepower advantages, maybe you don't realize you're signing up to get dunked on yourself by russian missiles and tanks. which is to say, it is probably a really bad idea to join the ukrainian foreign legion. speaking of americans. whatever happened to that texan boomer who joined the Russian sepratists.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:45
|
|
|
MrOnBicycle posted:Jesper Söder (dude in article) is pretty well know in Sweden. Joined Kurdish YPG to fight IS. From the article he saw explosions and a building get hit, loaded onto a bus with other euro fighters after being told "Russian soldiers are coming in an hour"(which didn't happen) and admits he doesn't actually have any idea of the number of Norwegian or foreign casualties. I wouldn't say this confirms anything besides the fact that the base got hit and a number of people there fled. In other news Russians further plan to destroy their civil aviation industry! https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503323929494102017?t=ZIMAadlgZdenz1Xm2UYMVQ&s=19 And if you want to know what the Russia-favorable (in that they think Russia will win) maps look like I have an article for you! https://twitter.com/bneeditor/status/1503360421100769298?t=STuliuClnt5EYo8Rnzh7Rg&s=19 Article link: https://www.intellinews.com/comment-eastern-ukraine-is-close-to-falling-but-putin-now-needs-a-peace-fast-237784/?source=russia It's an interesting perspective, I'll say that.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:45
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1503357043285143560 "We didn't want your dumb military aid anyway!" Sounds like China said no and is not letting itself get drawn into helping Russia.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:46
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:speaking of americans. whatever happened to that texan boomer who joined the Russian sepratists. Nothing, dude's chilling probably in Donetsk city as far from the frontlines
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:46
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:Sounds like China said no and is not letting itself get drawn into helping Russia. well of course, the chinese government is fully captured by the CIA and is a pawn of western imperialist aggression
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:47
|
|
|
Shageletic posted:Open our countries to any Ukrainian refugee. Turn the billions of dollars we've just signed into being to fund warfare into a welfare net to Ukraine and the countries around not seen since the Marshall project. Continue diplomacy with the actual memory of recent military defeats, and a cognizant awareness of the limits of our ability. Good! That's a start. Agreed on the refugees. Not quite sure what you mean with the diplomacy line, though in general yes less "Team America: World Police" would be nice (though Biden's been soft-shoeing this pretty heavily and I'd find it hard to accuse him of trying to play American Superhero). The welfare, however, I have some issues with. Yes, in theory, welfare is a good idea, but when exactly do you intend for this welfare to start? Right now, in the middle of the war, turning all military funding into welfare funding? Firstly, how do you intend to do this? Do you intend to give the money to the Ukrainian government and have them pinky-swear to only use it for non-military purposes? Or do you intend to fund infrastructure construction and the like in the middle of an active warzone? Or is it purely about flooding Ukraine with food and medicine and other such supplies? The first two I hope are obvious non-starters. The third is broadly humanitarian and it could help, but the biggest humanitarian issue in Ukraine right now isn't a lack of general food and medicine per se, it's the inability to get them where they're needed on account of Russian siege and occupation. In any event, sending only non-military aid is unlikely to make the Ukrainian happy - ask the Poles what they think about the Phony War, or what the Czechs and Slovaks think of the Munich Agreement. Even as is Ukrainians are calling for more support than is given - non-military support alone would be considered, rightly I think, as hanging Ukraine out to dry, and something of a betrayal. Do you intend that the welfare be given to Ukraine AFTER the war, then? Well, there lies an issue of who wins the war and how the land lies. If Ukraine is still independent, fine and dandy - reconstruction aid to Ukraine is I believe absolutely essential as long as an independent Ukraine remains, no matter what else happens. However, if this comes after a lack of military support, again, Ukraine is going to feel extremely betrayed, and will likely reckon that all the monetary aid in the world does little to salve the lives that were lost in the campaign that might have been saved if there had been more military support, and Ukraine wasn't forced to resist with weaker resources. If you still feel that any military support is an absolutely immoral act, fine - just be aware that you will get very little in the way of thanks for it. But if Ukraine is NOT fully independent, if it has either been partitioned by Russia or turned into an outright puppet state, now we come to much greater difficulties. Firstly, the whole war is because Putin desires greater influence and control over Ukraine - unlimited Western reconstruction aid would not be to his benefit, and he would have the power to simply refuse it. However, it would be more likely that he would accept it, with conditions - that he would get to direct the flow of reconstruction aid. This would allow him greater leverage over his new subjects, by rewarding loyalists and collaborators while starving out and punishing resistance, all while proclaiming his own largess as the bringer of benefit. This wouldn't be new - it's a common problem with aid to impoverished dictatorships, and something of a standing headache for the UN. Furthermore, allowing aid to flow into Russian-controlled Ukraine in this way would be in effect rewarding Putin - not only does he get to keep his gains from an aggressive war, he also gets to subsidize its rebuilding with Western support so that he can more swiftly reap whatever economic benefits are possible. This would encourage not only Putin, but other would-be imperialists throughout the world to eye their neighbors and consider the benefits of annexing territory for themselves, thus resulting in greater net loss of security and life. But all this is somewhat hypothetical in any event because you're looking at this solely from an American viewpoint, and in many ways the biggest driver of events here is not America, but Europe. Even if the United States were to unilaterally withdraw all military support, Europe is liable to continue to provide it with as much force as they can muster because the matter is not for them some distant question of whether they are using their power responsibly or not, but a direct threat to the security and well-being of their member states, as well as a nation they consider one of their own. Withdrawing American power to reduce American militarism is only going to lead to a much more marked increase in European militarism (which is already rising anyways!) as they come to see that America is no longer providing them with security guarantees and they must rely on themselves to defend their own interests. If you think that reduced American militarism in exchange for heightened European militarism is a good trade, well, possibly, but it seems to me to be more or less a matter of America going "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" rather than a real moral stance and attempt to do good. I can certainly understand someone with the experience of the Iraqi War looking on with skepticism at American military support anywhere, but I think it's important to remember that America is not, in fact, the Prime Mover of the universe and that there are other interests and desires in play besides American concerns about their own morality (or lack thereof).
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:48
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:"We didn't want your dumb military aid anyway!" Haven't basically everyone (not) involved said it wasn't a thing that ever happened?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:49
|
|
|
I think I've posted it before, but if people really want to help they should just do a fundraiser. If they want to do it in person then just hop on a plane to Warsaw and help there. Volunteers are completely burned out by now, Polish state is not up to task (as expected) and there are a lot of people that need help. Stuff like paying for someone's medicine, or even helping to distribute stuff could be a lifesaver. It's a better idea than going to the PL-UA border, since it looks like immediate area is well organized, and people are competently moved into Warsaw or Krakow.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:50
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:
The other side of this coin is that the more losses inflicted on Russia the more desperate Putin is going to get for "a win" so he doesn't come out of this with poo poo all over his trousers. I'm not sure there is any outcome in this war that doesn't end with Ukraine "essentially completely destroyed." Either the Ukrainians lose and are defeated or surrender -- in which case Russia will immediately begin genocide as we've already seen them do in conquered areas -- or the Ukrainians keep winning and more and more of their nation gets blown apart in the fighting, until Russia literally runs out of tanks and planes and soldiers to send against them. I don't see Russia backing down until they literally have no capability of continuing hostilities.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:51
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Haven't basically everyone (not) involved said it wasn't a thing that ever happened? My guess is it was an American "leak" to push China to taking a stand / coming off the fence.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:51
|
|
|
Regarding the legion stuff - a Danish volunteer (with previous military training and deployment experience) was on TV the other day. He was in good spirits, stationed somewhere in Kyiv and teaching first aid to the territorial defense. I don't doubt that some volunteers have had been blown up, been shocked at how fighting a conventional military is not like patrolling the Afghan countryside and/or simply been demoralized at not 'fitting in'. But the legion is far from 'gone' - there isn't a single legion. It is a flow of volunteers - some as squads, some as specialists, some joining the 'legion'. The Russians hid the base of one training / marshalling ground. That's a great propaganda win for them. Doesn't mean volunteers are useless, cannon fodder or have all gone home.alex314 posted:I think I've posted it before, but if people really want to help they should just do a fundraiser. If they want to do it in person then just hop on a plane to Warsaw and help there. Volunteers are completely burned out by now, Polish state is not up to task (as expected) and there are a lot of people that need help. Stuff like paying for someone's medicine, or even helping to distribute stuff could be a lifesaver. It's a better idea than going to the PL-UA border, since it looks like immediate area is well organized, and people are competently moved into Warsaw or Krakow. Yeah, I know a guy who drove to the border and opened up his car for refugees to get some sleep and cell phones recharged. He tried to give some people food and money, but they got upset and wouldn't take it. Those further away or unable to just set their jobs/families on pause can send money to NGOs or directly to the Ukrainian ministry of social services. PederP fucked around with this message at 14:56 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:52
|
|
|
PederP posted:Doesn't mean volunteers are useless, cannon fodder or have all gone home. No, but it does mean it's harder to train/equip/organise new people coming in. I also feel like it would be exceptionally easy for the Russians to have spies in such a place, there's a lot of random people coming and going.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:54
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:there was a guy who posted actual photos of the aftermath of the base attack along with his account of what went on, the guy had a long enough post history (pre-dating ukraine war) that it seemed pretty credible to me. it's since been deleted, unfortunately, but stuff like this, basically: A dane who volunteered had a similiar story. They received no training, the discipline was poo poo and it seemed like they didn't know what to do with his group. He decided to go home before he was sent out into the fight. Regarding how it's going militarily and whether Ukraine is "still" winning, I get a sense the Russians military is finally up in gear is grinding away at the UA. It's based on nothing concrete, really, but the way the Russians are pulverizing cities, striking deep with strategic bombers and how we aren't getting any real news from the Kyiv front, other than images of a burned out truck or APC here and there, tells me the happy days of the first 10 days are over.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:56
|
|
|
I have absolutely no idea whether there is a pocket of 60,000 Ukranian troops encircled in the Donbass or not. People commenting off Russian sources seem to think there is, the OSINT and Ukrainian sources haven't even hinted that something like that is going on. With the caveat of 'state Russian sources are obviously lying all the time' either possibility seems plausible and it's a maddening sign of the dichotomy of the information warfare going on that I can go on twitter and see overhead drone footage of urban mechanized combat play out, but we can't be sure about the fate of entire divisions at the strategic level.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:56
|
|
|
barbecue at the folks posted:Folks panic-posting Putin's own war propaganda really doesn't help things here. Would the WSJ be considered a Putinist media outlet? https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-foreign-legion-takes-the-fight-to-russian-forces-11647083295 In this article there's a former US Army guy complaining about how despite having training in them he was not issued a Javelin or Stinger and instead just given a rifle to fight Russians. At the end it implies he deserted. To be fair we don't know what his MOS was in the army and while I'm sure many US troops were put in danger in the various wars they've fought since 2001 they probably never faced the kind of serious danger they'd be in in Ukraine since like Vietnam. Even in Vietnam they still had air support, helicopters and stuff they wouldn't have in Ukraine. Basically I think for Putin that strike on the base in Lviv was worth it because it struck a massive morale blow and exposed the weakness in any foreign volunteers showing up to fight for Ukraine. I do think a lot of them probably deserted because they expected that this war would be call of duty and what they got was essentially a battle where for once in their lives they are the ones on the losing side without any of the "modern luxuries" they would have had in their home armies. How many of these people got to return to relatively safe FOBs where the worst that happens is the occasional suicide bomber at the gates or some random and highly ineffective mortar fire? Now they're in a scenario where even their safe zones are subject to missile fire and aerial bombing. That's probably a very jarring experience even for hardened combat vets who've operated under total air supremacy with helicopters and CAS blowing up any hardened targets for them. I'm sure a lot of people knew that and expected things like that. But knowing and actually feeling, seeing and hearing it is a whole other ball game. The Ukrainians have to fight for their lives, the war is happening all around their homes and safe places. Most of these foreign volunteers have places they can come back to an ocean away from harm. This is a testament to how utterly brave the Ukranians are. They're fighting under extremely hopeless circumstances and pushing on despite the odds while foreign veterans are saying "gently caress this" and making for Poland to go back home the moment a missile blows up their barracks. This is not me trying to spread Putinist propaganda. But I do think Ukraine needs more help than what NATO or sympathetic countries are willing to give them and what is being provided so far while greatly welcome and needed is not sufficient. Foreign volunteers aren't going to cut it, they don't have enough skin in the game and an event like that Lviv bombing is enough to disperse many people like that. The Russians knew that and all it took was a couple jets and a few bombs/missiles.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:58
|
|
|
alex314 posted:I think I've posted it before, but if people really want to help they should just do a fundraiser. If they want to do it in person then just hop on a plane to Warsaw and help there. Volunteers are completely burned out by now, Polish state is not up to task (as expected) and there are a lot of people that need help. Stuff like paying for someone's medicine, or even helping to distribute stuff could be a lifesaver. It's a better idea than going to the PL-UA border, since it looks like immediate area is well organized, and people are competently moved into Warsaw or Krakow. Tomn this is what I had in mind. Funding shelter and food for Ukrainians expulsed by war seems to me like something worth doing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:59
|
|
|
Trump posted:A dane who volunteered had a similiar story. They received no training, the discipline was poo poo and it seemed like they didn't know what to do with his group. He decided to go home before he was sent out into the fight. Wasn't that the guy who didn't actually have any military experience? Another Dane with experience from Syria made a good point in an interview recently: "Don't go alone if you can avoid it". Joining as a group and knowing what you can do brings much more to the table than expecting the Ukrainians to train, equip and organize you. They don't need adventurers.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 14:59
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:And if you want to know what the Russia-favorable (in that they think Russia will win) maps look like I have an article for you! I don't know much about this Gav Don person, but he seems to spend a lot of time stanning pro-Russian viewpoints on LinkedIn (e.g., "that wasn't really a children's hospital," "Putin just wants to get rid of Right Sector," etc.). Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Mar 14, 2022 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 15:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 11:39 |
|
|
Trump posted:
What's really clear is that the Russians haven't managed to make any significant advances since, well, about a week ago. They're blowing up a lot of civilians, that's documented. But all the cities they're trying to take still haven't fallen. Kyiv still isn't encircled or invaded and the troops sieging it haven't managed to move forward. Whatever *strategic* goals Russia is aiming for, other than "blow up a lot of Ukraine," they don't seem to be making progress. They're firing a lot of long range attacks from outside Ukrainian airspace but anything that flies into Ukrainian airspace seems to be getting shot down (including the bomber that made the strike on the training camp) and Russia doesn't have so many airplanes and trained pilots that it can afford those losses. I do kinda expect that Mariupol will fall soon and that will be significant.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2022 15:02
|
|