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The other part Russia wanted (and is most certainly not getting now) is demilitarization of Ukraine. Good luck getting that now.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:52
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CommieGIR posted:I thought the Russian Submarine corps was actually fairly competent? Submarines yes, you’re correct. I was thinking about naval infantry specifically, maybe generalising to surface boats that aren’t their Coastal Guard.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:52
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Lol naval invasion of Odessa. How can these Nazis be so hubris to think that will actually work? I mean you aren't being dropped on the shore. Your being dropped in probably knee high water under ATGM MG and tank fire and have to swim to shore. Morales already at a 0% for the naval troops.. maybe that's why they are ordering this. To kill the dissenters by forcing them into combat with Ukrainians.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:52
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Tigey posted:Wasting precious manpower and logistical capacity on chopping down trees and transporting the wood (which isn't a hugely valuable trade good by volume I assume) out of the country, when you are already struggling with both, seems like a great idea. Either 1) army so looted it has to literally go around Moscow to procure funds to buy poo poo. 2) someone decided to get while the getting was good and institute looting before the whole thing collapses and they get purged 3) let's create mud pits and landslides on our own positions. To own the libs. The problem is Russia is a lumber exporter so they likely already have a glut as half their export market is gone. Rail and truck bodies for lumber are also single purpose so  on logistics issues of this plan.Personally I think number 3. It's captain planet level anti environmental terrorism.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:53
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PerilPastry posted:Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? Referendums and constitutional amendments need time and legitimacy of process that Russia does not view as priorities. You can't just say in a treaty that another country's constitution has been amended.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:54
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NTRabbit posted:To me it seems more like lost in translation recognition that they can't just walk into NATO tomorrow, that there's a long and potentially difficult process ahead of them to make it happen, not that it's an impossible tease https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership ""I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine," Zelensky said in an interview aired Monday night on ABC News. "The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia," the president added."
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Mar 15, 2022 15:54
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Barrel Cactaur posted:The problem is Russia is a lumber exporter so they likely already have a glut as half their export market is gone. Rail and truck bodies for lumber are also single purpose so And I'm assuming those lumber trucks are already well armoured against light artillery fire, yes? Hmmm, to shreds you say?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:55
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How big are the trees in Ukraine? Do they have chainsaws?
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Mar 15, 2022 15:56
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Cortés promised his soldiers the bounty of new world gold, lands, and wealth; Putin has promised his conscripts a glorious bounty of pine and birch logs for the invasion of Ukraine.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:56
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Failed Imagineer posted:And I'm assuming those lumber trucks are already well armoured against light artillery fire, yes? If you can get your artillery ranged for the back lines where this is happening you have infinitely better targets than lumbertrucks.
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Mar 15, 2022 15:57
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CommieGIR posted:I thought the Russian Submarine corps was actually fairly competent? Maybe but they're not particularly useful for amphibious assaults. dr_rat posted:Also those logging trucks are 100% going to get stuck in the mud. Some lucky farmers with tractors are going to get just a whole bunch of fire wood I guess. Maybe they had drivers playing Spintires to prepare
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Mar 15, 2022 15:57
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Speaking of the competency of the Russian navy. Never not a good time to re-post the infamous voyage of the Russian fleet during the Russo-Japanese war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag Hopefully their navy has not improved much in the last 117 years. Eric Cantonese posted:How big are the trees in Ukraine? Do they have chainsaws? Can you take down a tree with a grenade? ...asking for a friend. dr_rat fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Mar 15, 2022 |
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Mar 15, 2022 15:59
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Telsa Cola posted:If you can get your artillery ranged for the back lines where this is happening you have infinitely better targets than lumbertrucks. I don't know if that would reassure me much if I were in that position, but then again "Russian lumberjack" does not suggest to me a person with a huge fear of personal injury
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Mar 15, 2022 16:00
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TheBuilder posted:Cortés promised his soldiers the bounty of new world gold, lands, and wealth; Putin has promised his conscripts a glorious bounty of pine and birch logs for the invasion of Ukraine. These 50 foot long tables are resource intensive.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:00
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PerilPastry posted:Honestly, between this and earlier statements I think it's exactly the "it's an impossible tease" position he's arrived at NATO has always been cool to Ukraine's membership due to its internal corruption problems. Its accession was always a long ways off and was going to require a fair amount of internal restructuring to the Ukrainian government and economy before they were going to be let in. Zelenskyy was trying to use the invasion to short-circuit a lot of that and try to make it happen much sooner. NATO is just sticking to their original timetable and not cutting corners.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:00
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Eric Cantonese posted:How big are the trees in Ukraine? Do they have chainsaws? They are tree sized and yes, of course. 
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Mar 15, 2022 16:02
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PerilPastry posted:Zelensky seems to acknowledge that NATO's open door policy is a mirage. To the Russians would codifying a decision not to apply for membership in, say, the Ukrainian constitution be enough of a guarantee for the "neutral status" they're so eager to impose on them? The Russian people would be ecstatic about the war ending with 'mission accomplished' and Ukrainian constitutional change to prevent them from joining NATO. But I'm very sure that is not enough for Putin. Ukraine would also likely only agree if Ukraine is allowed to have a military, does not cede territory, can join the EU if it wishes and can choose their own government. Those terms will de facto mean that Ukraine becomes aligned with the EU (to join once the years of bureaucracy and integration are complete), has global economic integration, gets massive international economic aid and subsidies to arm and equipment the military so it could easy smash Russia in a round 2 (even if not part of NATO). That's exactly the kind of neighbor state Putin does not want. And that remains the problem - any peace acceptable to Ukraine (ie non-subjugation) is unacceptable to Putin, as a non-subjugated Ukraine means he doesn't get a second chance and he will have humiliated Russia before the entire world. I still think China will backstab him once they figure out he will be a (crazy) ball and chain on their plans for global economic integration and increased international influence. Chinese has no need for an unstable mad dog. If Putin stays in power in a weakened and unstable Russia, things might fall apart in a way that threatens Chinese stability. I think China has already given Putin a deadline - and if doesn't make it by then, he retires to his villainous palace-lair, or China pulls the rug out under him. Depending on how brutal the CCP are in this, they might even have told him who he is allowed to pick as a successor. Chinese marshall plan for Russia follows - with Chinese officials and companies integrating into Russian administration and state-run companies. The Russian Communist Party suddenly becomes really popular - and the Russian Federation becomes a vassal state of China. Sorry for the fanfic, but I think that scenario should at least be considered by the US and Europe. The deeper Putin digs a hole for himself, the more China will own him. I'm sure the inner circle in Russia know this too, and if they off him, I suspect would not be out of altruism, panic over sanctions or even hunger for power. It would be to avoid becoming completely dependent on China to a degree that China not merely gets Russian resources for rubles on the yuan, but where they can impose a soft occupation of the country. "Oh no riots in Vladivostok, and the Russian forces are busy in Ukraine - we better move in and stabilize things." This whole 'Z' bullshit isn't something Beijing is going to accept. I'd put 70 cent on the dollar on the hyper-capitalist prediction markets (those do exist) in regards to a (CCP-controlled) Communist Russia within 20 years.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:02
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mutata posted:They are tree sized and yes, of course. Just thinking that it takes a lot more time to cut, say, a redwood than a regular pine tree.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:03
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The Daily Beast just put out an article about Russian Media coverage of the war over the past week. I know it likely doesn't mean too much regarding Putin's policy, but I think it's interesting to see how they're spinning things internally https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1503702421322833924?s=20&t=WAvQqERFdxAQeg8tHZ6n2w Article: https://www.thedailybeast.com/wild-kremlin-tv-hosts-threaten-the-us-with-nuclear-strikes-unless-sanctions-end-and-reparations-are-paid Selected quotes - they're talking mass executions for the Ukrainian resistance now quote:In recent days, Russian state television regressed from Orwellian lies to Kafkaesque nightmares, as pundits started to promote the idea of executing Ukrainians resisting Putin’s war of aggression by hanging. They noted that the so-called “constitution” of the rogue “republics” created in Ukraine by Russian forces conveniently allows for the death penalty. Last Thursday on The Evening With Vladimir Soloviev, after listening to other pundits and experts endorse the idea of executing Ukrainian citizens by hanging, doctor of political sciences Elena G. Ponomareva argued: "Never let morality prevent you from undertaking correct actions. I understand the importance of a humanitarian component... but morality shouldn't get in the way." And some of the hosts are spinning fantasies about 'war reparations' from the US, including claiming Alaska back, using nuclear strikes as a threat quote:Reciting the list of Russia’s future demands during Soloviev’s show, Matveychev became even more brazen: “We should be thinking about reparations from the damage that was caused by the sanctions and the war itself, because that too costs money and we should get it back. The return of all Russian properties, those of the Russian empire, the Soviet Union and current Russia, which has been seized in the United States, and so on.” Very cool and regular things to say on primetime television when your show is all but only game in town in Russia
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Mar 15, 2022 16:05
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:sell the wood to whom exactly Clearly the plan is to spray a zwastika on each felled tree to trick Ukrainian farmers to haul it away to an undefended location where the VDV can steal them.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:12
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Speaking of prediction - I really feel like Lukashenko is overvalued on prediction markets. PredictIt has him at 91 cents (to the dollar) for being the President all of 2022. That's the same odds given to Boris Johnson for staying PM through May. Putin rest of 2022 is at 79 cents. Sweden and/or Finland joining NATO in 2022 is at 38 cents. Those markets are not terribly accurate at prediction (as investors can sell their bet 'shares', the price cannot be considered a true estimate of probabilities, but rather an amalgam of probability, volatility and time horizon). But they do still give an insight into how actors on the financial markets expect events to unfold.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:13
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From what I have always heard and read the Russian Navy was always considered to be something of a joke, even in Soviet times. At their best they dealt with poor equipment, training and morale. They were always looked as the last priority as the Army and then Air Force got the lion's share of the money and focus. The Submariners were generally the best of what was available but that doesn't mean much and considering what we have seen with the rest of the Russian military I wonder what the condition and capabilities of the big SSBNs are now. The Boreis are new but as we have seen that doesn't mean much.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:16
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PederP posted:Speaking of prediction - I really feel like Lukashenko is overvalued on prediction markets. PredictIt has him at 91 cents (to the dollar) for being the President all of 2022. That's the same odds given to Boris Johnson for staying PM through May. Putin rest of 2022 is at 79 cents. Sweden and/or Finland joining NATO in 2022 is at 38 cents. i think Lukashenko gets punted as does kadyof once the poo poo starts to unravel. either through rebellion/rivals or kremlin poo poo. idk what happens to putin, depends how big the implosion is.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:17
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KitConstantine posted:Russians decided they liked the orc nickname and should adopt their culture as their own There's a direct line from the Orange Revolution to the Russians using Agent Orange.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:17
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i think Lukashenko gets punted as does kadyof once the poo poo starts to unravel. either through rebellion/rivals or kremlin poo poo. idk what happens to putin, depends how big the implosion is. Speaking of Lukashenka https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1503751361946693641?t=GReRYScUlAoJQllq1zdN2w&s=19 No word on if there was a Belarusian general standing directly behind him with a hand conspicuously in his jacket during this statement
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Mar 15, 2022 16:18
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of Lukashenka yeah, either putin cleans house during this or after the horror show or the general decided to "do it".
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Mar 15, 2022 16:19
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Just following the tracks of well-known military genius and successful leader Saruman the White.Dapper_Swindler posted:i think Lukashenko gets punted as does kadyof once the poo poo starts to unravel. either through rebellion/rivals or kremlin poo poo. idk what happens to putin, depends how big the implosion is.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:21
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Eric Cantonese posted:How big are the trees in Ukraine? Do they have chainsaws? Clearly they are fully equipped and trained for logging. This thread has gone too long without a video game analogy so... 
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Mar 15, 2022 16:22
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KitConstantine posted:The Daily Beast just put out an article about Russian Media coverage of the war over the past week. I know it likely doesn't mean too much regarding Putin's policy, but I think it's interesting to see how they're spinning things internally
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Mar 15, 2022 16:23
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Zero_Grade posted:Just following the tracks of well-known military genius and successful leader Saruman the White. yeah he either goes out like Beria or he goes out like Gadhafi. either is deserved.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:23
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PederP posted:
The thing about whole "Russia controlled by China" thing is that Russian racism would likely make it politically unacceptable. Russia wants to be respected by Europe and wants their Europeaness (how do you spell that?) acknowledged. Ukraine is kinda similar, but Ukrainian goal is more "we want to live like Poland" while Russia is more "we want to be like France and swing our national dick around a lot".
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Mar 15, 2022 16:24
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TheBuilder posted:Cortés promised his soldiers the bounty of new world gold, lands, and wealth; Putin has promised his conscripts a glorious bounty of pine and birch logs for the invasion of Ukraine. Well they do need more logs to replace all their cope cages.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:25
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Willo567 posted:This is all just propaganda right Yep, but it's still interesting to see what the government sees as useful to have blasted into the eyeballs of the Russian people imo They didn't bother spinning up the manufacturing consent machine prior to the war, and now it's working overtime.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:26
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Willo567 posted:This is all just propaganda right If you think they think that the US will ever cede a state to Russia then I recommend a walk outside. I don't mean that in a joking way, getting too deep into this stuff is bound to distort your sense of reality (that's one of the reasons Russia pumps out this poo poo!), but there is no possible timeline where that happens.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:28
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Deteriorata posted:NATO has always been cool to Ukraine's membership due to its internal corruption problems. Its accession was always a long ways off and was going to require a fair amount of internal restructuring to the Ukrainian government and economy before they were going to be let in. It always seemed obvious that NATO membership was at best a decade+ away if it was ever possible. If someone gave the Ukrainian government the impression that it would be fast tracked or there was some weird trick to it then that is a monumental error in diplomacy. The US is never going to say it can't happen because it would essentially codify Russia's sphere of influence leaving open the question of who else has dominion over their smaller neighbors and how do we get a signed piece of paper to that effect. Like Mongolia is by virtue of population size and geography entirely at the mercy of China and nobody can do anything to stop them from rolling in there tomorrow. Regardless, even if that is the reality of things, the US isn't going to sign a treaty that declares Mongolia a subject of China. It's simply not a sensible approach to geopolitics.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:28
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Willo567 posted:This is all just propaganda right Certainly, but I'm wondering how many in the West will advocate handing over everything back just in case they're serious
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Mar 15, 2022 16:29
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KitConstantine posted:Speaking of Lukashenka Obviously you have to take all these statements with a punch of salt, but if he's genuine and his remarks are directed at the military then it would suggest there's some truth to the rumours of units mutinying at being told to go into Ukraine.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:29
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OddObserver posted:The thing about whole "Russia controlled by China" thing is that Russian racism would likely make it politically unacceptable. Russia wants to be respected by Europe and wants their Europeaness (how do you spell that?) acknowledged. Ukraine is kinda similar, but Ukrainian goal is more "we want to live like Poland" while Russia is more "we want to be like France and swing our national dick around a lot". Someone should have told them that being respected by Europe would be a lot easier if they weren't a bunch of murdering dickbags.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:30
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Willo567 posted:This is all just propaganda right Yes.
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Mar 15, 2022 16:30
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Tomn posted:This is just petty, Christ. Either that or it's the stupidest plan to cut down on tank ambushes ever. First, this seems like translation error or just straight up bullshit. This is labour and resource intensive work, which a net exporter of timber and lumber products knows perfectly well. Let's assume it's true, at some level. Ukraine has a bit under 100 000 square kilometers of forest. I assume 33 % of that would be under threat based on Stetson-Harrison method. Ecology and biodiversity -wise that would be anything from bad to catastrophic, depending on age structure of the forests. Aside from destroying habitats and connectivity, the potential extinction debt this incurs on large parts of Southern Eurasian steppe is significant. I do not think this is what people really care about in a war. Deforested areas without active land use are very difficult to travel (and control). We're speaking of just "fell trees, go away" approach, which does not lead to some wonderful open plains where no one can shoot you from a bush; instead, it will be all bush. It will increase erosion and make travel more difficult. Flooding would locally become prevalent. That's more than the annual deforestation of Russia, but only under 1 % of Russian forestry area. Assuming something like 60 year harvest rotation (completely out of my rear end), this means that to log, transport and harvest this 33 000 square kilometers in a year requires a 50 % increase in Russian forestry capacity, including transport and processing. OK, maybe they just burn them down or fell them with no purpose then destruction? Curiously, this may actually have a positive net impact on certain endangered taxa (negative on others, and I am not going to assess the Ukrainian Red List), and militarywise this again is stupid since you're just making the terrain you hold a desolate, muddy wasteland for a few years. edit: I got it. You fell major trees for ????, burn the rest, and restore more steppe! Saiga antelope renaissance will be here soon. I would normally call this bullshit, but now I hedge my bets and say there's a non-insignificant chance it's just stupidity. El Perkele fucked around with this message at 16:34 on Mar 15, 2022 |
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Mar 15, 2022 16:31
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