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TheRat posted:https://twitter.com/GrangerE04117/status/1504071814519029764 Aww that's a bummer. There's always another time I guess.
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Mar 16, 2022 13:47
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A Buttery Pastry posted:This is all entirely in line with the poo poo people did historically, it's just public rather than in letters. It's not exactly the Reply of the Zaphorozhian Cossacks tho
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Mar 16, 2022 13:54
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PederP posted:The revival of the Western Protectorate. As mentioned, I actually think Russia will end up essentially a Chinese protectorate with a Communist majority in the Duma. Post-war famine and poverty in Russia -> Chinese 'Marshall' aid to Russia (the west focuses on Ukraine and the probable famine in Africa and the middle east) -> Russian elections give landslide for Communist party. This would be a net positive for Russia, as long as the CPRF does not become too ‘ideologically’ aligned with with Chinese ‘Communist’ Party.
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Mar 16, 2022 13:56
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So would a pre WWI Belgium style neutrality and security guarantee be acceptable to Ukraine, where both NATO and Russia were obligated to intervene if Ukraine were attacked by an outside party? I guess more of Russia’s security concerns stem from soft power influence over Ukraine so this type of guarantee wouldn’t address those, but I’m not sure how they get addressed in a reasonable way that leaves Ukraine sovereign.
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Mar 16, 2022 13:56
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Wild and uninformed guess but I think Russian air force use has been limited out of fear of escalation with NATO and the far away possibility of actual NFZ discussions.
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Mar 16, 2022 13:56
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Lol at the replies from the concerned Tesla fan that Putin is going to hack into all Teslas and direct them into the nearest concrete highway divider. Little do they realise they're at much higher risk of the Tesla auto-bricking or spontaneously combusting
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Mar 16, 2022 13:57
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Zelensky's speech to Congress will be live on CSPAN, CNN, MSNBC, etc. in a minute. Take your pick.
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Mar 16, 2022 13:58
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Failed Imagineer posted:Lol at the replies from the concerned Tesla fan that Putin is going to hack into all Teslas and direct them into the nearest concrete highway divider. Do they even need to hack them to make Teslas crash into concrete barriers??
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Mar 16, 2022 13:59
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mobby_6kl posted:Do they even need to hack them to make Teslas crash into concrete barriers?? No, it's the natural end-state of the Tesla lifecycle
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Mar 16, 2022 14:00
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:So would a pre WWI Belgium style neutrality and security guarantee be acceptable to Ukraine, where both NATO and Russia were obligated to intervene if Ukraine were attacked by an outside party? Considering how that ended, I think you may have a hard time selling it.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:00
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mobby_6kl posted:Aww that's a bummer. There's always another time I guess. The Ukrainians absolutely hit something with that MLS strike. I wonder what exactly.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:02
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https://twitter.com/PhilipinDC/status/1504033406971228164?s=20&t=EtaIMqXnJUWeC-yWqVE68w
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Mar 16, 2022 14:02
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Hammerstein posted:Russia's military budget is something around 62 billion USD, which is only 10 billions more than Germany and there are reports about the sad state the German army is in. So 62 billions to maintain a huge navy, including a fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, thousands of military planes, ten thousands of armored vehicles and one of the largest strategic nuclear arsenals in the world. And all of that in a country with a GDP comparable to Canada or South Korea. On top of that there is massive corruption, meaning that whatever money is budgeted for training, spare parts, wages, etc...has a good chance to disappear in the pockets of oligarchs, local strongmen, corrupt officers or the mob. The average Russian conscript likely considers himself lucky if he's not victim of the Dedovshchina and gets a bowl of potatoe and onion soup a day. Yeah, but personnel costs are ~25% of expenditures and those will be way lower, plus that will have similar proportionately lower costs for procurement for many things (though not all). You should probably compare closer to expenditure at PPP, or maybe like...halfway between PPP and raw numbers. Maybe there's a metric for that. In any case it's nowhere in the same universe as NATO expenditures regardless of your normalization.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:04
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Collateral posted:Considering how that ended, I think you may have a hard time selling it. If I were Ukraine and there is a peace based on forced Ukrainian Neutrality, I would withdraw from the nuclear proliferation treaty and rearm.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:04
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About to start - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srN7n2jVQrg
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Mar 16, 2022 14:04
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Dick Trauma posted:https://twitter.com/PhilipinDC/status/1504033406971228164?s=20&t=EtaIMqXnJUWeC-yWqVE68w I wouldn't say that poo poo to a stressed-out Klitschko, for any of number of reasons, but respect to the man for not uppercutting him into Belarus
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Mar 16, 2022 14:05
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fatherboxx posted:Wild and uninformed guess but I think Russian air force use has been limited out of fear of escalation with NATO and the far away possibility of actual NFZ discussions. Think it's more like it's because whenever a Russian plane takes off it's lit up like a xmas show from across the Polish border, the last week including a Patriot battery, by AWACS and ground radar. Ukraine lacks the real good AA, but they are supported by the absolute best intelligence and surveillance apparatus in the world. Failed Imagineer posted:I wouldn't say that poo poo to a stressed-out Klitschko, for any of number of reasons, but respect to the man for not uppercutting him into Belarus Yeah, that reporter should buy a lottery ticket today. What a gently caress muppet Trump fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Mar 16, 2022 |
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Mar 16, 2022 14:06
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Be careful looking up Chernihiv news today. Just saw a video of what appears to be aftermath of an artillery shell hitting a dozen people lining up for a grocery store. Unbelievably this happened outside our grandparents' apartment. In one of the clips of the aftermath I can actually see grandpa walking around. They said that everyone was shot at (not shelled) while queuing for bread. So loving surreal.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:07
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WORLDS BEST BABY posted:Unbelievably this happened outside our grandparents' apartment. In one of the clips of the aftermath I can actually see grandpa walking around. They said that everyone was shot at (not shelled) while queuing for bread. So loving surreal. Jesus loving christ. I'm not a religious man, but you and your family is in my thoughts... jeez
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Mar 16, 2022 14:10
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mobby_6kl posted:I get the Austria part, but how is it demilitarized if it it has its own army? Because Putin officially listed demilitarization as one of his objectives, so the peace deal will include something that's called demilitarization to make sure Putin can claim it as a complete victory. Whether that "demilitarization" has anything to do with literally anything anyone associates with that word is, of course, irrelevant.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:10
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Trump posted:
I thought the tone was pretty clear that the "question" was a lead in to allow him to show the non military targets being hit. "Putin says..." prefacing the initial statement is intimating "well, Putin says this, but we're standing here now, can you show us why that isn't true?"
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Mar 16, 2022 14:12
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toadee posted:I thought the tone was pretty clear that the "question" was a lead in to allow him to show the non military targets being hit. "Putin says..." prefacing the initial statement is intimating "well, Putin says this, but we're standing here now, can you show us why that isn't true?" Yeah reporters do that all the time. "____ says ____, go ahead and explain why that's bs"
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Mar 16, 2022 14:15
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The expression you are looking for is "Бугага"
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Mar 16, 2022 14:16
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PederP posted:That is not what is coming out of the Russian state media, the writings of the top Kremlin officials, etc. We can also see directly how Crimea was annexed, the two break-away republics recognized, territory in Caucasus was annexed, threats have been made in Central Asia. Nothing indicates a territorially content Russia. Putin himself has stated on numerous occasions that the territorial reduction of Russia was a historical mistake. I think if Russia really intended to just look bigger on a map there are things they could take with less resistance. The goal here is specifically about Ukraine. They havent eaten belarus yet for the same reason: just more people for the dole
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Mar 16, 2022 14:16
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PederP posted:Seeing the war on Ukraine as motivated by territorial and revanchist ambitions makes sense when considering actions and words both. It also makes sense if considering Kremlin as a rational, albeit ill-informed and unrealistic, actor. Seeing it as a security concern makes sense from a Western-centric perspective only. And one should note that Putin has repeatedly rejected the rules-based international order. If Putin has no rationality (at least internally consistent rationality, there is no one rationality) then nothing is possible save for escalation. If that is the case I think NATO needs to stop worrying about Ukraine and start setting up hospices for the irradiated right now. I don't think that's actually the case.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:20
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HappyHippo posted:Yeah reporters do that all the time. "____ says ____, go ahead and explain why that's bs" Yeah, they do. When talking about a new highway or problems with waste disposal, in a studio. This dude was literally standing in the rubble of a residential building, there's plenty of other ways you could have worded that differently and not come of as a 1. semester journalism major.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:21
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Something something Rubicon https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1504084227079516167?t=eXDlqRmZ7aHBcqrLNlWYPw&s=19 https://twitter.com/coe/status/1503843594091778051?t=7tDVYWijU8jK6lBR_PvxhA&s=19 quote:“As leaders of the Council of Europe we expressed on several occasions our firm condemnation of the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine. This unjustified and unprovoked aggression led to the decision of the Committee of Ministers and the Parliamentary Assembly to initiate the procedure of expulsion of the Russian Federation from the Council of Europe provided under Article 8 of the Statute.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:21
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KitConstantine posted:Something something Rubicon all through the 20th century. 2 world wars, a civil war and a revolution or two, the NYT had a correspondent in the Russian capital. That stopped last week.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:23
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Trump posted:Think it's more like it's because whenever a Russian plane takes off it's lit up like a xmas show from across the Polish, the last week including a Patriot battery, by AWACS and ground radar. This is a good point that I don't think has been fully explored, and I think it explains the Russians behavior somewhat. Every piece of Western intelligence equipment in the world is pointed at Ukraine right now. There's all of the established ground equipment surrounding Ukraine, EU/NATO/US warbirds patrolling everywhere, and space stuff. Russian pilots EWS must go nuts from the moment they're in the air to when they land again; all the radio waves being thrown at a Russian bird may warm the cabin temperature a fractional bit. And all of it has a very clear line of sight, because Ukraine is relatively flat, and we know that Western IC is passing tactical data to UA. IIRC the NVA used Russian radar to tell their S-75s to turn on with great effect.  I wonder if Western IC has found a way to gimmick or jam Russian smart munitions
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Mar 16, 2022 14:24
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IMO: Occam's Razor says the Russians aren't using their PGMs because they don't work. Something's broken and noone knew before the invasion.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:27
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I caught part of his address - Zelensky switched to English at the end which was a very smart move imo. Also the video was super powerful https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1504085844172419076?t=LC8Z_rSrlX2ebpCApOtSJg&s=19 Nice and easy for cable to play and play again. Zelensky may not have been a good man before, but he is exactly who Ukraine needed in this moment. An actor that understands that this whole war is playing out in front of an audience of billions, and the man knows how to work the crowd
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Mar 16, 2022 14:28
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Ynglaur posted:
So my experience as a tank commander is that this is down 100% to crew skill, if you look closely you have vehicles pointing in two directions which suggests a lack of situational awareness and poor navigation for a start, the fact they have multiple bogged in vehicles shows a lack of tactical spacing. If it's a sketchy route always send one in to prove it, if they do get bogged in you can always troop level recover with the use of steel tow ropes from another tank or if proper bogged the use of a recovery tank with winch, ours can go out to the hundreds of meters and if that fails you can daisy chain recover tanks. But more worrying it shows they don't have recovery assets at a Sqn/Btn level which could winch these vehicles out, this all adds up to poor a tactical level of command and control. This type of bogged in would take maybe an hour to get unfucked if not under fire, if they'd single vehicles the route, maybe 2 or three minutes once hooked up.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:30
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This might be a dumb idea, but I thought Russia was opting out of using precision munitions because it's more difficult to write off civilian casualties and other collateral damage when you're using precision weapons. They're trying to break the will of the Ukrainian population and the Ukrainian government with brute force, so why go with the expensive stuff?
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Mar 16, 2022 14:30
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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1504042290628767744?cxt=HHwWgMC9wdOft98pAAAA
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Mar 16, 2022 14:30
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KitConstantine posted:I caught part of his address - Zelensky switched to English at the end which was a very smart move imo. Also the video was super powerful The video was powerful, but if you haven't watched it yet, um,  mass graves and human suffering in general.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:30
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KitConstantine posted:Something something Rubicon What exactly is the council of Europe?
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Mar 16, 2022 14:31
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FishBulbia posted:If Putin has no rationality (at least internally consistent rationality, there is no one rationality) then nothing is possible save for escalation. If that is the case I think NATO needs to stop worrying about Ukraine and start setting up hospices for the irradiated right now. I don’t understand this? He is rational, it’s just that his goals are unrealistic. He could escalate ad infinitum or he could realise he lost his gamble / was fed bullshit by his inner circle and look for a compromise to make peace and save some face while doing it.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:31
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Eric Cantonese posted:This might be a dumb idea, but I thought Russia was opting out of using precision munitions because it's more difficult to write off civilian casualties and other collateral damage when you're using precision weapons. They're trying to break the will of the Ukrainian population and the Ukrainian government with brute force, so why go with the expensive stuff? That's obviously just internet speculation, not a confirmed policy. I think they aren't using that many precision munitions because they don't have that many.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:32
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Boris Galerkin posted:What exactly is the council of Europe? Human rights NGO. Most important aspect is citizens of member states can claim compensation for human rights violations by appealing to the European Court of Human Rights.
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Mar 16, 2022 14:32
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FishBulbia posted:If Putin has no rationality (at least internally consistent rationality, there is no one rationality) then nothing is possible save for escalation. If that is the case I think NATO needs to stop worrying about Ukraine and start setting up hospices for the irradiated right now. My point is that a rational actor can be concerned with things other than security. Territorial expansion and ambitions of unifying some more or less imagined ethno-nationalist entity (Greater Russia) is perfectly rational, even if unsympathetic. If we try to understand and reason with the Kremlin regime, it is folly to not accept that expanding the Russian Federation is part of Putin's goals. What Putin did does not make sense from perspective of security - hence it follows that ascribing him such motives is the same as saying he is irrational. If you do not think Putin is irrational, then he must have other concerns than security. This invasion makes no sense otherwise. As the Russian elite, intelligentsia and state media are all openly discussing an ethno-nationalist unification agenda, it follows that this is a more likely explanation. It is an unpleasant explanation for sure - because security concerns can be resolved through compromise and diplomacy. Expansionist concerns are mutually exclusive with the existence of a sovereign Ukrainian state.
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