|
Charlotte Hornets posted:The best comparsion regarding Chinese and Russian army is that the Russians are knowingly willing to drive 25 tanks into a minefield while the Chinese are willing to drive 100. Take it as you will. Where are you pulling this nonsense from?
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:47
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 21:00 |
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:In ww2 the mud season typically saw a pause in fighting which was used by both sides to consolidate, regroup and rearm troops. Yes, but the airforce and artillery kept at it. You also saw infantry skirmishes, but armored operations were off the table till it was either dry or frozen stiff.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:48
|
|
|
you feelin fucky posted:Unfortunately replacing a 6 storey furnace in a plant that was built around it is not something you can do on your lunch break. You also need to plug the new one in somewhere and that infrastructure is lacking too. To do this for an entire country will take a decade or two at least. Well you don't replace the entire CHP system, you just convert the fuel type in the boiler. This sort of thing has already been a cause celebre amongst the hydrogen folks, who've been figuring out ways of switching gas turbines over to different forms of it. Whether it's green, blue, grey, or black hydrogen, Germany has been exploring ways to switch over to a hydrogen-based economy for a while now (despite environmental concerns) and perhaps this will be their way of doing it. And it also should be remembered that many of these CHP systems used to be fuel oil in the first place, before Germany went all in on Russian gas. Really though, what I'm advocating isn't so much a silver bullet solution as a display of actual willingness to change direction on an energy policy of massive gas, coal, and timber import/exports.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:49
|
|
|
Postorder Trollet89 posted:This is all well and true, but there's another side that goes understaded and explains alot of the problems Russia has. The mud thing is pretty irrelevant and memey. Also the mud areas are in the north - Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv etc. These areas are generally also pretty swampy, so even during July you can get quicksanded there. In short, its just one of the 99 problems why Russians suck but not any of the major ones like plain incompetency or poo poo combined arms.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:53
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1505666594676084741?s=20&t=8NX2TpsUOtRkaTzR9MEMbQ So the deadline is either surrender or Grozny.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:54
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1505666594676084741?s=20&t=8NX2TpsUOtRkaTzR9MEMbQ i mean its already grozny. also i wouldnt trust some russian dudes propaganda bullshit.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:58
|
|
|
Grouchio posted:https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1505666594676084741?s=20&t=8NX2TpsUOtRkaTzR9MEMbQ Seems like it's already Grozny. Seems like they're threatening Grozny with updated firepower.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:58
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean its already grozny. also i wouldnt trust some russian dudes propaganda bullshit.
|
|
#
?
Mar 20, 2022 23:59
|
|
|
Well, if Mariupol surrenders soon it's a win-win for both (if safe passage is delivered as promised by Russia) The Ukr and Azov boys can get out to fight somewhere else and the Russians don't have to waste couple more weeks and hundreds of lost personnel and equipment and can unfree the bulk of the troops there to other fronts.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:01
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:Well, if Mariupol surrenders soon it's a win-win for both (if safe passage is delivered as promised by Russia) What about any of the events of the past few weeks have made you think that the parenthetical is remotely likely?
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:02
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:Well, if Mariupol surrenders soon it's a win-win for both (if safe passage is delivered as promised by Russia) Please tell me you aren't the last person on the planet to still believe Russia would respect a safe passage agreement.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:02
|
|
|
OK, that Polish intervention tweet got deleted so I don't have the original article to read, but given that the possibility has been brought up I think there's a couple of questions worth asking even if they're pretty close to Clancychat (the Overton window on that is really moving around a lot these days, huh?) 1) Has there ever been a historical incident of nation A agreeing to fight nation B within nation C, without nation A crossing the borders of nation C and nation C agreeing presumably not to cross the borders of nation A? Off the top of my head I'm having some real trouble coming up with examples - feels like the risk of it just outright becoming a straight war between A and C is extremely high even if they try to sell that agreement initially. 2) When and how is NATO likely to trigger in the event of Polish intervention? If Russian missiles and bombers strike Polish bases, is that grounds for full intervention? Normally that'd be an Article 5 I imagine but it seems like the rules might be a bit relaxed if Polish troops are actively fighting Russian troops in Ukraine. Does it trigger if Russian troops cross the Polish border from Belarus? What exactly are the circumstances in which NATO goes from "lol ok poland do your thing" to "ok that's far enough, knock it off russia"? It feels like a lot of uncertainty surrounds the whole thing and I dunno how comfortable I am with THAT much uncertainty when nukes are in potential play. 3) How does Kaliningrad feature into all this? In the event of a Polish intervention, do Poles and Russians just sit at their borders and growl at each other until/unless it escalates into general war? 4) Do we have any idea at all of the current state of the Polish army? I mean we just got done talking about how a lot of European NATO forces are in kinda bad shape from neglect. Are the Poles potentially going to end up clownshoeing their way into the war as well? How large ARE the Polish forces anyways, and how much could they devote to this adventure? 5) What is the state of the Polish logistical preparations? We just had a whole thing where Russia is having logistical difficulties despite having planned and prepared for this invasion for months. The Poles are potentially about to springboard an expeditionary force on very little warning. Are they going to be able to supply themselves, or are they able to make use of the Ukrainian supply network without stressing it more than it can bear? 6) Can Poland actually afford to go to war, economically? War is expensive, and if Poland goes to town presumably they can't rely on the same firehouse of funding Ukraine is getting. I'm not entirely certain of the state of the Polish budget - will they be able to do anything without driving up a hell of a lot of debt? I know probably not all of these can be answered by people in this thread, but it just feels to me like if this is really on the table there's a lot of practical considerations that need to be hammered out before we can say "Yes, good idea, we should do it, rock 'em Poland!," even before you take into account the possibility of escalation. I'm really hoping this is no more than saber-rattling to try and keep Belarus out of the fight because if it does happen there are way too many unknowns for me to be comfortable with the situation.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:Well, if Mariupol surrenders soon it's a win-win for both (if safe passage is delivered as promised by Russia) "Safe passage" means "Into Russia or Russian Controlled Belarus". They have openly been caught forcing Ukrainian families to move to Russia. Its called taking hostages/kidnapping. That also assumes Russia upholds their end of the bargain. Last few times, they mined and shelled the 'safe passage' routes.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:Well, if Mariupol surrenders soon it's a win-win for both (if safe passage is delivered as promised by Russia) ...have you not heard of Illovaisk?
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:03
|
|
|
The tweet was just someone quoting a US spokesperson saying that the US wasn't going to put troops into Ukraine but if 'someone in NATO' wanted to then hey good luck to them. The fact that that the tweet was deleted makes me suspect someone made an offhand comment in a briefing that had to be rapidly reeled back in once they got out of the room and worked out what they'd said.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:05
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:Well, if Mariupol surrenders soon it's a win-win for both (if safe passage is delivered as promised by Russia) Thousands of troops will die if they storm mariupol. Not hundreds. This will be thee most intense fight of the war. Ukrainians having a last stand at mariupol would be the best outcome as it would exhaust the most Russian troops. Those troops would be absolutely mentally exhausted after fighting in the urban environment Yeah it's lovely as gently caress and a surrender would save people. But at this point people are being deported to the far east and Ukraine as a culture is going to be erased if this isn't stopped. Mariupol surrendering would set a precedent for the rest of the conflict. Not a good one..victory at all costs is a far greater national motivator than surrender to Russia if it gets too bad.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:05
|
|
|
Meanwhile, in Kherson, looks like convoys are being blocked and diverted by popular protests. https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1505582573174546438?s=20&t=wM3jp7_4iS4qojV47NOczw
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:06
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Thousands of troops will die if they storm mariupol. Not hundreds. This will be thee most intense fight of the war. they are already in mariupol. there is a *ton* of footage of the urban fighting there and we have seen just craploads of russian casualties. it is actually a good question as to how ready the forces attacking it will be after it, it seems way worse than, say, fallujah.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:The tweet was just someone quoting a US spokesperson saying that the US wasn't going to put troops into Ukraine but if 'someone in NATO' wanted to then hey good luck to them.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:07
|
|
|
Concerned Citizen posted:they are already in mariupol. there is a *ton* of footage of the urban fighting there and we have seen just craploads of russian casualties. it is actually a good question as to how ready the forces attacking it will be after it, it seems way worse than, say, fallujah. I'm aware, but they haven't breached the actual nazi stronghold yet. They are in the city center and the Ukrainian units are cut off from one another in pockets. But this is still a very dynamic combat environment with heroism providing new openings and avenues of advantage for the Ukrainian defense. It isn't over yet. They are demanding surrender because it's a political victory.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Thousands of troops will die if they storm mariupol. Not hundreds. This will be thee most intense fight of the war. It's one thing to post promo n your telegram channel how you will fight to the last man and then there is reality. We can't really know what shape the Ukr forces are in Mariupol, obviously they know they are hosed and there will be no breakout operation. Generally sieges don't end in a final stand but a surrender deal and getting bussed out to somewhere else. And bussing the Azov boys from Mariupol is a win than wasting time the Russians don't really have and the mounting casualties. Sometimes it's good to cut your losses and make a deal than prolong the misery for both sides even if one will win but it will take long.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:12
|
|
|
It would make sense, in a way, if Putin specifically did not want to annihilate the Azovs, because they're worth more to him as an extant entity than as dead Nazis.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:15
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:Sometimes it's good to cut your losses and make a deal than prolong the misery for both sides even if one will win but it will take long. Sure, if you are making a deal with someone who will honestly honor the deal. Guess what Russia does most times? The opposite.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:18
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:It's one thing to post promo n your telegram channel how you will fight to the last man and then there is reality. We can't really know what shape the Ukr forces are in Mariupol, obviously they know they are hosed and there will be no breakout operation. Except, again, the last time this happened the Russians fired on the buses.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:21
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Sure, if you are making a deal with someone who will honestly honor the deal. Well, its a possibility. But need to figure something out. Strong guarantees, 3rd party brokering the deal that can't let the Russians embarrass them etc. It can be figured out solidly. Leave the heavy equipment behind (read Ukr will just scuttle it) and then there is no point to just massacre them.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:24
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:Except, again, the last time this happened the Russians fired on the buses. There have actually been quite a few successful corridors so far (and not just ones that went to Russia), and then some that for whatever reason failed. The failures seem most likely to happen where the People's Republic forces are operating, so I suspect that is the main issue. But I don't really expect the Ukrainians to trust the Russians to keep their word anyway, so it's moot.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:25
|
|
|
Charlotte Hornets posted:It's one thing to post promo n your telegram channel how you will fight to the last man and then there is reality. We can't really know what shape the Ukr forces are in Mariupol, obviously they know they are hosed and there will be no breakout operation. You're only talking about this from the Russian point of view ("wasting time the Russians don't really have"), but what's the point of view of the Ukrainians on this? Past performance would easily lead one to believe that taking this deal would be worse in every way than not. Concerned Citizen posted:There have actually been quite a few successful corridors so far (and not just ones that went to Russia), and then some that for whatever reason failed. The failures seem most likely to happen where the People's Republic forces are operating, so I suspect that is the main issue. But I don't really expect the Ukrainians to trust the Russians to keep their word anyway, so it's moot. Ah yes, it just so happens that whenever Russians 'guarantee a corridor' that it is always the perfidious someone else who attacks/mines/blows them up, and not Russia. They're super innocent.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:26
|
|
|
Nessus posted:It would make sense, in a way, if Putin specifically did not want to annihilate the Azovs, because they're worth more to him as an extant entity than as dead Nazis. Yeah you’re right there’s no way Putin could lie
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:28
|
|
|
Kchama posted:You're only talking about this from the Russian point of view ("wasting time the Russians don't really have"), but what's the point of view of the Ukrainians on this? Past performance would easily lead one to believe that taking this deal would be worse in every way than not. Get the troops out + civilians angle which Russia doesn't care about the Ukraine + West will have to.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:28
|
|
|
Russia is the sick man of Europe and it must be pacified with the pen.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:31
|
|
|
Okay seiges are awful and I would definitely prefer a world in which the Ukranians are able to evacuate in exchange for not putting up a fight, but if you are fighting a war and your opponent is signalling they are quite desperate for you to do something then you really want to think long and hard about whether it is in your best interests to do that thing. Mariupol standing is clearly unsettling the Russian timetable in a way that's causing them some angst.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:31
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:Ooh I like this. Note nothing has actually been announced, but just suggesting it might happen will definitely raise hairs on necks in Moscow. This is exactly the kind of 'we could do this' messaging that the West should do more of. What was this, already deleted? Speculation that Poland might enter the war?
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:32
|
|
|
Kchama posted:Ah yes, it just so happens that whenever Russians 'guarantee a corridor' that it is always the perfidious someone else who attacks/mines/blows them up, and not Russia. They're super innocent. I mean, most of the corridors succeed and some end up breaking down immediately. Your guess is as good as mine as to why. It is not true that "whenever Russia guarantees a corridor" it gets blown up or attacked, in fact that is the minority of the time.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:32
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/RVAwonk/status/1505675286754570242?s=20&t=W16CedZGC2DytFoA5KOt0w poo poo like this does concern me. its clear Putin is aiming to escalate with chemical weapons attacks and such.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:33
|
|
|
jaete posted:What was this, already deleted?
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:33
|
|
|
Regardless of our distant pontifications over whether Russians are playing 4D chess by issuing the surrender offer, I'm pretty sure the fighters in the city are going to be skeptical about putting themselves at the mercy of Russian soldiers, as well as their decision making being probably clouded by having witnessed the indiscriminate destruction of their city by the army to which they are supposed to surrender. Even if Russia means it, the weeks of fighting have made it an existential question for the defenders, and have motivated them to resist on top of that.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:34
|
|
|
WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Germans are a legalistic people
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:34
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505683840882331650 Regardless, Ukraine does not seem interested in taking Russia up on its offer.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:35
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:I remember reading about a guy who got pulled over in Germany for speeding. The first question the police officer asked was “Is your car modified in any way?” Yeah IIRC the law is if you modify your car it must be within 10% of the original Horsepower. They are pretty strict about modified vehicles.
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 21:00 |
|
|
Kyiv Independent so grain of salt... https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505674263159881730?s=20&t=V81DWc6oY932lYyUzoP9NQ
|
|
#
?
Mar 21, 2022 00:36
|
|