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The Greek Minister of Foreign Affairs has apparently reached out to the Russians about his plan to accompany aid to Mariupol https://twitter.com/NikosDendias/status/1506292909523537924?s=20&t=ibRW2JcWNy8wkL_el4c4Tw Brave man. Interesting thing to keep an eye on
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Mar 23, 2022 17:51
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cinci zoo sniper posted:On west supposedly running out of weapons, as some were worried yesterday: So at some point is every soldier in Ukraine going to be sporting anti-tank missile launchers akimbo? https://twitter.com/ap/status/1506642670734786566?s=21 Can he be sent back to jail for this? Please?
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Mar 23, 2022 17:52
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OddObserver posted:Are you sure on that? My attempt to read Not sure whether or not the US is a signatory on anything meaningful (because it doesn't matter, because they're the US), but the US absolutely pummeled Fallujah, and much more recently Raqqa, with white phosphorus bombs. Even took out a couple civilian hospitals with them, to make absolutely sure that there was no debate over whether a war crime was in progress.
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Mar 23, 2022 17:54
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Nessus posted:For me also in NJ and on Verizon, it loads: Of course Joe Rogan makes the front page of RT. What a loving stooge.
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Mar 23, 2022 17:54
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guys, ASSANGE
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OddObserver posted:Are you sure on that? My attempt to read I was pretty sure the US was not a signatory. I could be wrong though, I am not an expert. If they are it makes some of what happened in Fallujah pretty gross—not that it wasn’t gross regardless.
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Mar 23, 2022 17:55
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Now the Lithuanian Minister of Defense is visiting Kyiv. Seems like anyone can get in and out except for the Russians https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1506674947883769868?s=20&t=ibRW2JcWNy8wkL_el4c4Tw Also new economic sanction proposal "Poland and Baltic states call on EU to ban trucking from Russia and Belarus" https://twitter.com/EuropeanPravda/status/1506676453815078913?s=20&t=ibRW2JcWNy8wkL_el4c4Tw Article: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2022/03/23/7136494/ quote:The transport ministers of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have called for a ban on road transport to and from Russia and Belarus and to restrict the entry of ships from these countries into EU ports.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:04
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Interesting turn for Abramovich https://twitter.com/toddprincetv/status/1506675562458189824 Also, NATO numbers, but god drat. https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1506666830924066823 ummel fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 18:07
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ummel posted:Interesting turn for Abramovich I always thought that that's why he was given leeway by the west, despite not being the richest oligarch he's both the person who got Putin into politics and fairly cosmopolitan by oligarch standards.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:09
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ummel posted:
This seems almost impossible to believe, legit source or no. That would seem to be a pretty significant degradation of Russian forces in the region over the span of a few weeks. Pretty great if true!
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Mar 23, 2022 18:16
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Nessus posted:For me also in NJ and on Verizon, it loads: it loads for me now also wtf is rogan talking about? who in the west was even thinking about ukraine the last couple of years, outside the trump-adjacent scandals.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:17
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OneMoreTime posted:This seems almost impossible to believe, legit source or no. That would seem to be a pretty significant degradation of Russian forces in the region over the span of a few weeks. Pretty great if true! they're estimating 7k-15k killed (which seems in the range of what people are thinking), and then multiplying by 3 for the usual number of wounded. however, it's possible that russians are really bad at medical care as well, and so there's less wounded to get to that KIA number. they do not appear to have an independent assessment of wounded numbers beyond that "multiply by three" thing.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:19
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OneMoreTime posted:This seems almost impossible to believe, legit source or no. That would seem to be a pretty significant degradation of Russian forces in the region over the span of a few weeks. Pretty great if true! Just the same napkin math we've all been doing it looks like.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:19
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evilweasel posted:they're estimating 7k-15k killed (which seems in the range of what people are thinking), and then multiplying by 3 for the usual number of wounded. however, it's possible that russians are really bad at medical care as well, and so there's less wounded to get to that KIA number. they do not appear to have an independent assessment of wounded numbers beyond that "multiply by three" thing. I wonder how many wounded there actually are. Seems like a lot of the kills are done via catastrophic vehicular cessation of existence.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:21
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OneMoreTime posted:This seems almost impossible to believe, legit source or no. That would seem to be a pretty significant degradation of Russian forces in the region over the span of a few weeks. Pretty great if true! Lets say thats 10k dead, another 15k wounded, and 5k in the captured/missing/deserted/unknown bucket. It's a high end estimate but plausible. e: I know I've hit 30k not 40k. Tweak the numbers in all three brackets upwards a little.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:21
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Seems Germany isn't willing to pay in roubles https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1506677652798820358?s=20&t=mJVmI26kUUtRrXLv6T74Tg
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Mar 23, 2022 18:22
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https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1506660525106778120?s=20&t=3utdnb366beorfyRnf4X0Q
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Mar 23, 2022 18:23
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Tesseraction posted:Seems Germany isn't willing to pay in roubles https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1506677652798820358?s=20&t=mJVmI26kUUtRrXLv6T74Tg Gonna get spicy (and a bit chilly) in Germany. Luckily Spring is here now!
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Mar 23, 2022 18:23
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KitConstantine posted:Interesting attempted travel of international political menace Paul Manafort And then charge him for anything done after his pardon. gently caress that traitor. KitConstantine posted:Now the Lithuanian Minister of Defense is visiting Kyiv. Seems like anyone can get in and out except for the Russians  cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, the estimated number of combat veterans in the country was 400-450k. Aertuun posted:All European countries need to rapidly rearm, in a similar style to Ukraine over the past eight years, before Russia figures out how to do logistics properly. We can't rely on the assumption that they'll make the same mistakes twice. Re: Information Warfare Do the various anti-vax, pro-Trump, pro-Brexit channels have their origins in Russian disinformation operations? I realize (assume?) such things take on a life of their own after a time because they become echo chambers, but in a world without the FSB, would those movements have taken off the way they have? Is there any good data-based research on the subject? Re: Direct Intervention If this veers too close to Clancy-chat let me know and I'll hold my tongue, but is there any realistic scenario in which Poland or other Eastern European countries intervene on their own without the cover of NATO? Re: Supply I'm speculating, but I think other NATO countries are realizing right now just how important it is to have deep reserves of the basics: food, small arms, grenades, small caliber ammunition. Back in the late 90's the US had enough ammunition to support a Corps-sized formation (call it 9 modern BCTs) for one month of fighting. That's it. That largely got fixed during the 00's, but it's easy for budget cuts to trim into that a little bit at a time in favor of big, flashy platforms.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:26
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OAquinas posted:Gonna get spicy (and a bit chilly) in Germany. I assume they call their bluff and keep paying in Euros. If they've not cut the supply so far because they need the money, they're not going to cut it because it's paid in Euros.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:26
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DekeThornton posted:Another batch of AT4's and also some mine clearing equipment, according to Swedish media. I don't think we have enough NLAW's to spare, sadly. MadJackal posted:So at some point is every soldier in Ukraine going to be sporting anti-tank missile launchers akimbo? Not quite, but even with simpler missiles/anti-tank grenades numbers so have an effect, because explosive armour is not something a tank crew will be able to replenish in combat. That’s why these 5000 AT4, and other stuff they’ll undoubtedly be receiving, matters - sure, 5000 Javelins will kill 4500 tanks or IFVs, but 5000 AT4s in cramped city combat will still kill, say, 2000 tanks or 4500 IFVs. There’s a real “strength in numbers” effect to having multiple squad members equipped with proper AT weaponry. ummel posted:Also, NATO numbers, but god drat.  Rinkles posted:it loads for me now Isn’t Rogan’s career best summarised as that?
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Mar 23, 2022 18:27
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Tesseraction posted:Seems Germany isn't willing to pay in roubles https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1506677652798820358?s=20&t=mJVmI26kUUtRrXLv6T74Tg As expected. This is an incredibly convenient, legal way to start loving Russia up in a politically defensible way. It’s very easy to legalspeak this into “they turned our gas off”.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:29
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Alchenar posted:Lets say thats 10k dead, another 15k wounded, and 5k in the captured/missing/deserted/unknown bucket. Some context for these numbers RE: the quantity of troops Russia built up for the invasion https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506682468857954309?s=20&t=c4tM3HFls-glIJcuCWrNPw
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Mar 23, 2022 18:29
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AT4s are also good anti-infantry weapons in urban environments. Enemy infantry squad in a building? Shoot the wall they're hiding behind. Need to breach a building to get inside? Shoot the wall (from a safe standoff). "Soft" vehicle target like a truck? Pop an AT-4 at it.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:31
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I really wish someone would hit the Russia-Europe gas lines now so germans have a whole year to adapt and maybe buy a "home sweater" or two. It's like doing an intervention on an addict that keeps saying they'll get clean "one day". It will hurt, but the pain will be worse in the long run if they don't.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:32
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Some thoughts on the discussion yesterday about "If Ukraine has reserves why aren't they using them"- A couple of factors to consider: A) If Ukraine's current forces are able to stop or slow Russian advances (trading ground for time/making things VERY expensive for Russia in terms of manpower and equipment), Then it may be advantageous to keep that up for a time - especially if Russia is indeed having resupply issues. B) You want to have a reserve to plug a hole should Russia manage to make a breakthrough on any front. Wargaming this, one strategy would be to keep the present operational status quo, and bleed Russia badly, before shifting to offensive operations. As has been pointed out, when you shift to Offense, you need to expect to lose more guys than the Defense. So ideally you want to reduce the opposing force as much as possible before shifting to offense, and then hit them with as much overwhelming force as you can. Mind you, other factors need to be weighed, IE - limited counteroffensive to push Russia out of artillery range, dire relief to encircled troops/cities, etc. I'm also wondering if that was the remark from the US last night about how things are about to get "really hard" for Ukraine's military - if they are indeed shifting to Offensive operations, that would in fact be the most difficult for Ukrainian forces...
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Mar 23, 2022 18:33
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OAquinas posted:I wonder how many wounded there actually are. Seems like a lot of the kills are done via catastrophic vehicular cessation of existence. There's also frostbite, "oops I shot off my toe," etc. But I'm always a bit skeptical of the napkin math numbers based on ratios--there seem to be a number of factors that could adjust them up or down, such as quality of medical evac and care. For example, the US had closer to a 10-1 wounded-killed ratio in Afghanistan, and I seem to remember a lot of that was attributable to the quality of US medical evac, etc.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:33
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https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1506629556597366784 John Sweeney reports that Russians are being driven back on the east of Kyiv, as well.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:As expected. This is an incredibly convenient, legal way to start loving Russia up in a politically defensible way. It’s very easy to legalspeak this into “they turned our gas off”. would it be at all possible to distribute some gas to Germany via existing European gas ports? or is their throughput too small for that to make sense?
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Mar 23, 2022 18:35
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Once new business relationships are built with other nations This poo poo is sticky btw. Once it shift it don’t shift back.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:36
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Rinkles posted:would it be at all possible to distribute some gas to Germany via existing European gas ports? or is their throughput too small for that to make sense?
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Mar 23, 2022 18:38
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Baronjutter posted:I really wish someone would hit the Russia-Europe gas lines now so germans have a whole year to adapt and maybe buy a "home sweater" or two. It's like doing an intervention on an addict that keeps saying they'll get clean "one day". It will hurt, but the pain will be worse in the long run if they don't. Maybe not just sweaters. On March 8th, the Washington Post reported this: quote:As they moved closer to announcing the ban, senior Biden administration officials spent the past several days exploring drastic measures to try to protect the global economy from the potential fallout of even higher oil prices. If we decide to do that, it would be a remarkable feat of production and generate goodwill through all of Europe. I hope we do. Further information on heat pumps and potential strategies here. William Bear fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Mar 23, 2022 |
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Mar 23, 2022 18:38
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Ynglaur posted:AT4s are also good anti-infantry weapons in urban environments. Enemy infantry squad in a building? Shoot the wall they're hiding behind. Need to breach a building to get inside? Shoot the wall (from a safe standoff). "Soft" vehicle target like a truck? Pop an AT-4 at it. Interesting to see how the M72 LAW keeps getting brought back into service just for this lighter duty. Cheaper and lighter than the AT4 and RPG-22 Norway apparently donated a couple thousand M72s to Ukraine. The Soviet Era RPG-18 is still kicking around too.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:39
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Bar Ran Dun posted:This poo poo is sticky btw. Once it shift it don’t shift back. The shift has already started. Germany came to some kind of deal with Qatar a few days ago - details unclear https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505583937963401221?s=20&t=yLIaWrLfu0UN3S4DhyyIxA Edit: still light on details but more definitive-sounding https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1505631947795886080?s=20&t=yLIaWrLfu0UN3S4DhyyIxA
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Mar 23, 2022 18:39
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Rinkles posted:would it be at all possible to distribute some gas to Germany via existing European gas ports? or is their throughput too small for that to make sense? There are not enough LNG terminals in Europe nor enough LNG suppliers to really make a dent here. Something like half of Europe is as dependent on Russian gas as Germany or more, it's not a problem that can be solved quickly.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:41
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Ynglaur posted:Re: Direct Intervention If this veers too close to Clancy-chat let me know and I'll hold my tongue, but is there any realistic scenario in which Poland or other Eastern European countries intervene on their own without the cover of NATO? That’s rather unlikely, if you ask me.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:43
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Deteriorata posted:https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1506629556597366784 Kalynivka, I think, just outside Kyiv.
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Mar 23, 2022 18:43
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CSM posted:https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1506660525106778120?s=20&t=3utdnb366beorfyRnf4X0Q i've seen that exact gis platform before, so i know that sometimes the display of layers can get funky, but just visually that amount of blue doesn't seem significant. maybe the layers are messed up, maybe the gains are on critical locations that put the rest in doubt, but it is just humorous to see someone breathlessly reporting on what visually seems to be tiny slivers of the red polygon
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Mar 23, 2022 18:45
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OAquinas posted:I wonder how many wounded there actually are. Seems like a lot of the kills are done via catastrophic vehicular cessation of existence. (CW: War) Ukraine v Russia: catastrophic vehicular cessation of existence !!!READ OP WARNING!!!
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Mar 23, 2022 18:46
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D34THROW posted:(CW: War) Ukraine v Russia: catastrophic vehicular cessation of existence !!!READ OP WARNING!!! Sudden Catastrophic Load Induced Disassembly. 
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Mar 23, 2022 18:47
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KitConstantine posted:Also new economic sanction proposal "Poland and Baltic states call on EU to ban trucking from Russia and Belarus" I doubt Finland will be rushing to support this because we have a bit of our infrastructure, uh, borrowed from us by Russia since 1940, and we are paying them rent so that shipping can enter eastern Finland's lake area. Currently authorities are waiting for Russians to open the canal for this season as it's closed in mid-winter. This would be a likely counter-sanction target for any transportation related sanctions.  It's a bit unsure anyway because it's not yet known if Central European insurers will let ships enter Russian waters in fear that they get stopped and confiscated by Russia.
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