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Blockhouse posted:If the US wanted to appease Putin I'm almost sure the government wouldn't have led a global initiative to choke the life of the country's' economy. Led seems like a strong word, I would argue it was in concert with the EU.
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Mar 24, 2022 02:44
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Tomn posted:Yeah, that's important context - but it doesn't change the main point of worry, which is "Hey, nobody in Russia is picking up the phone to discuss strategic deconfliction." Whether that's because Russia is throwing a hissy fit, or because they're currently getting waterboarded by Putin, either way the end result is the worrying same. I'm pretty sure we'll get through this.
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Mar 24, 2022 02:45
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Tomn posted:
Putin does seem to be seeking to go full Stalin, next logical step is Commander in Chief. Maybe he'll answer himself after he closes the windows behind his ex-generals.
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Mar 24, 2022 02:45
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Have Some Flowers! posted:The article says that US (and allies) actions signal that they don't want Ukraine to lose, but they're fine with a slow costly (for Ukraine) win because that maximizes the punishment to Russia and Putin. Are there any reasonable suggestions for the US to help Ukraine speed up a victory more than they already are?
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Mar 24, 2022 02:46
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Tiny Timbs posted:Are there any reasonable suggestions for the US to help Ukraine speed up a victory more than they already are? Training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-22s?
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Mar 24, 2022 02:51
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Tiny Timbs posted:Are there any reasonable suggestions for the US to help Ukraine speed up a victory more than they already are?
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Mar 24, 2022 02:52
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Tiny Timbs posted:Are there any reasonable suggestions for the US to help Ukraine speed up a victory more than they already are? Presumably being fine with a slow costly war means the Biden administration will not pressure Ukraine into accepting lovely terms to end the conflict early.
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Mar 24, 2022 02:52
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Tomn posted:Interestingly, the ISW report includes this note: Yeah, it doesn't seem to be a big focus of anyone's commentary, which may suggest it isn't particularly significant, but idk The other option: 
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Mar 24, 2022 02:52
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https://twitter.com/BBCYaldaHakim/status/1506753765994647556?s=20&t=GJc6jCNNoD8BEgfHXohb6Q
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Mar 24, 2022 02:54
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Tiny Timbs posted:Are there any reasonable suggestions for the US to help Ukraine speed up a victory more than they already are? Supplying of anti aircraft batteries, increase in jets sent to the country, helicopters. they can honestly give Ukraine a loving carrier that probably be sweet. Also they could give Ukraine Texas. Yes I do mean the entire state.
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Mar 24, 2022 02:56
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Supplying of anti aircraft batteries, increase in jets sent to the country, helicopters. they can honestly give Ukraine a loving carrier that probably be sweet. Also they could give Ukraine Texas. Yes I do mean the entire state. Ukraine's got enough poo poo to deal with without saddling them with Texas. 
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Mar 24, 2022 02:58
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Charliegrs posted:CNN interviewed a Ukrainian fighter pilot and a lot of what he said is pretty wild stuff. Like it sounds like there's honest to God dogfights going on over the skies of Ukraine even a month into the war when the Russians have a clear numerical advantage in warplanes.
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Mar 24, 2022 02:59
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gay picnic defence posted:Training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-22s? Hastily repainting a retired Nimitz-class carrier blue and yellow and parking it in the Black Sea?
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Mar 24, 2022 03:00
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The X-man cometh posted:Hastily repainting a retired Nimitz-class carrier blue and yellow and parking it in the Black Sea? If I see A Ukrainian tug carrying a Nimitz class across the Black Sea I will lose my poo poo
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Mar 24, 2022 03:01
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So can someone answer this question for me - Did Zelensky ban "all opposition parties" or just those 11 with pro-Russia ties? And if not all opposition parties were banned, what are some other opposition parties were allowed to stay?
AHH F/UGH fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 03:02
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KitConstantine posted:Looks like the US did get the fancy e-warfare box shipped over here to get torn apart. I hope the Ukrainians made us pay through the nose What information can we get from this? Explain to me like I’m dumb.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:02
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Boris Galerkin posted:What information can we get from this? Explain to me like I’m dumb. We can see if they're stolen tech in it, we can see where they are getting their parts whether China's making them or not. We can also see if there's IP theft involved in the creation of them to start. I'm sure a computer touch it can explain more about this bullshit but we can probably take software data off of it and you know glorious NSA hackers can see how the vehicle is sending data back. And potentially see if it can access other vehicles sending back data and get their locations which would be super beneficial to the ukrainians. If any of this is outright wrong please say something I need to know I am not a big intelligence guy in terms of reverse engineering soft and hardware
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Mar 24, 2022 03:05
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Getting some numbers on how wrecked one of the VDV paratrooper regiments is. And this isn't likely to be the final total. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1506777574084595717?t=Ca6NNBcDxV_JsvNqrVJLjg&s=19 From the article: quote:Thus, in less than a month, at least 21 servicemen of the 331st Guards Parachute Assault Regiment of Kostroma, including the commander of the unit, died.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:05
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AHH F/UGH posted:So can someone answer this question for me - Did Zelensky ban "all opposition parties" or just those 11 with pro-Russia ties? And if not all opposition parties were banned, what are some other opposition parties were allowed to stay? He banned the activities of 11 opposition parties, those with deep pro-Russian ties, only one of which actually held any seats in the parliament. EDIT: The party with seats in parliament was the second largest party in parliament. It held 43 seats compared to Tymoshenko's Party (26 seats), Poroshenko's (25) or another pro-Euro party (that held 20 seats but appears to have split into two). Zelensky's own party had 254 seats. Morrow fucked around with this message at 03:11 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 03:06
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Eric Cantonese posted:Here's a "No one in DC knows what the hell to do!" take that you might find interesting. Few points on this 1) I think he's overstating 'expected kiev to fall' with planning for the worst wrt security situation for embassies and Zelensky's safety and Russia's ability to get enough people into the capital to cause a ton of chaos. That's not to say that people anywhere were super confident of Ukraine's actual ability to defend beyond being able to slow down and inflict horrific losses on Russia. 2) Natsec blob was pretty on point actually wrt Ukraine's capabilities and to the general facts of the war and Russia basically put into plan the exact plan Ukraine had expected and been preparing for (with substantial American and NATO help) the better part of a decade. Only real early days strategic surprises were, pushing through chernobyl and how small Russia's opening salvos aimed at Ukrainian air defenses were. Ironically it was not just the Russian elite who were unaware of how different Ukrainian armed forces of 2022 are from 2014, it was very much a thing in the US as well. 3) A fairly core planning thing, and only moreso in military planning, is to never make best-case assumptions about a situation so you don't get caught off guard by things you have discounted or failed to account for. That perspective reads as quite pessimistic, but it's distinct from the actual outlook which does not expect literally every possible thing to go wrong. From what I've seen, most assessments of Ukraine's chances were much more grounded in the latter than in some abject pessimism. Two big refrains I heard over and over were 'there's no quick way to conquer the second largest country in Europe and especially not during the spring' and 'a month from now Russian forces will be bogged down while Ukrainians hammer their supply lines.' So I think that the 'this caught everyone off guard' is more of an individual 'i was just caught off guard' acknowledgement in many cases. 4) with that said, a Ukrainian victory (or even strings of successes enough that you start getting significant regional victories) is undeniably something few people outside of Ukraine have given a lot of mental energy to because there were far more pressing existentially relevant concerns. So yeah there's probably a big blind spot here of 'where do we go if Ukraine really is pulling this off?' Additionally it's also way the gently caress too early to start be calling the conflict and there remain a number of huge things that could swing things in either direction (things ranging from Ukraine deciding they're winning and taking their foot off the gas, Russia generally mobilizing, other countries entering the war, and so on). I know there is institutional thought about what a Ukrainian victory would look like, but yeah it's probably not something the administration was expecting or significantly accounting for and if they are in fact seeing the signs of it, yeah there's no doubt a huge scramble to understand it. Personally I remain skeptical because wars very much are not over until they're actually over and converting early successes into an actual victory is as much or more work than achieving the early successes in extremely advantageous circumstances. Once the mud dries up, which it already is clearly starting to, though it appears it's still going to be a while yet, and if Ukrainian starts mounting offenses as opposed to hit and run attacks or fighting out of defensive positions that maximize their advantages, then it's a whole different kind of war from what they've succeeded at so far. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 03:25 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 03:06
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Have we ever received confirmation that the iPhone 76s were shot down? Because that's 400 vdv soldiers in one engagement.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:07
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Boris Galerkin posted:What information can we get from this? Explain to me like I’m dumb. According to replies this is Russia's most advanced electronic warfare box. It's the peak of their tech. By obtaining it the US government can see exactly how it works and figure out how to counter it with our equipment. Apparently it will put Russia another decade in the hole because they will have to advance even more to beat the advancements and counters the US develops using Russia's equipment as a cheat sheet
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Mar 24, 2022 03:09
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/BBCYaldaHakim/status/1506753765994647556?s=20&t=GJc6jCNNoD8BEgfHXohb6Q Not to sound too conspiratorial but this really does look like a green screen.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:11
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does anyone have a source for that claim? i probably just missed it, but i don't remember hearing that before.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:13
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Rinkles posted:does anyone have a source for that claim? i probably just missed it, but i don't remember hearing that before.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:14
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Boris Galerkin posted:Not to sound too conspiratorial but this really does look like a green screen. It absolutely is a green screen it's 2022. Why wouldn't zelensky mask his location? Also he used this green screen before same guard in the same location and everything. It's loving obvious at this point so obvious that it's intentional. The thread that cannot be named in the sub forum that cannot be named mentioned that these prove that zelensky wasn't actually in Kyiv. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 24, 2022 03:15
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AHH F/UGH posted:So can someone answer this question for me - Did Zelensky ban "all opposition parties" or just those 11 with pro-Russia ties? And if not all opposition parties were banned, what are some other opposition parties were allowed to stay? I haven't found a comprehensive answer for this either. The closest piece I can find is this: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/21/why-did-ukraine-suspend-11-pro-russia-parties quote:Most “pro-Russian” parties in Ukraine are first and foremost “pro-themselves” and have autonomous interests and sources of income in Ukraine. They are trying to capitalise on the real grievances of a sizeable minority of Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens concentrated in the southeastern regions. These parties do command significant public support. For example, three of the recently suspended parties participated in the parliamentary elections in 2019 and combined received about 2.7 million votes (18.3 percent) and in the most recent polls conducted before Russia’s invasion, these parties collectively scored about 16-20 percent of the vote. It doesn't seem like a great or necessary move, really, but I'm not Ukrainian.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:18
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:
To be clear, there's no evidence that they are actually doing this, but cutting down trees and using them to corduroy a road is a time honored way for an army to restore mobility in mud; Sherman did it in Georgia during the ACW and the Soviets used to make movements in the Pripyat swamps in WW2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corduroy_road
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Mar 24, 2022 03:20
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Reiterpallasch posted:To be clear, there's no evidence that they are actually doing this, but cutting down trees and using them to corduroy a road is a time honored way for an army to restore mobility in mud; Sherman did it in Georgia during the ACW and the Soviets used to make movements in the Pripyat swamps in WW2. Thanks for clarifying. I actually had no idea about this concept and just saw a tank hosed up in the mud getting pulled out with logs which made me base an assumption that it as being done in mass.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:23
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Boris Galerkin posted:What information can we get from this? Explain to me like I’m dumb. Knowing the specific capabilities and quirks of a piece of EW gear makes it possible to do things like immediately identify it's activities and get an approximate range based purely on it's emissions. You can also specifically tailor HARM (anti-radar) missiles to seek it.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:24
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Boris Galerkin posted:What information can we get from this? Explain to me like I’m dumb. It might be comparable to the capture of the enigma machine in WW2. Prior to that, we had a general idea of how it worked, as well as intercepted transmissions. Decryption was still possible, but it involves a lot of guessing about the underlying mechanism. After capture, decryption was still challenging, but since we knew the exact process involved, a lot of false trails could be excluded. In theory, a design mistake could have been discovered and broke it wide open.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:28
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Few points on this Don't forget 5) While we figured Russia's capabilities weren't as advertised, we didn't anticipate them having a poo poo strategy, even more poo poo training, and the absolute bono-level poo poo maintenance and combat readiness of their equipment. It's like seeing a big imposing castle, and only after touching it do you realize it's just an inflatable.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:29
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Rinkles posted:does anyone have a source for that claim? i probably just missed it, but i don't remember hearing that before. “Sources in the intelligence community” was the usual attribution, but I think there’s a lot of mis-remembering going on. The statement wasn’t “Kiev would fall in 24-48 hours”, it was “Kiev could fall within 24-48 hours.” Which is exactly what the poster above described - worst case analysis, not likeliest outcome. (The linked WSJ story, in case of paywall: “WASHINGTON—The White House warned that Kyiv could fall as Russian forces continue to advance on the city. “Kyiv falling is a real possibility,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Friday. “Even as we see resistance on the ground, Russia’s military continues to advance toward Kyiv.” U.S. officials had assessed as recently as Thursday that Kyiv could fall within 24-48 hours. U.S. officials still expect it could fall, but a senior defense official said Friday that Ukrainian resistance was stronger than the U.S. first expected and the Ukrainians had slowed the Russians’ push into the capital.”)
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Mar 24, 2022 03:31
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That's more in line with what I remembered
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Mar 24, 2022 03:33
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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/tlch9g/the_belarusian_military_contacts_the_ukrainian/ Belarus military has told the Ukrainian army they if they attack they will discuss terms of surrender. As in their own. Comstar fucked around with this message at 03:47 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 03:38
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Morrow posted:He banned the activities of 11 opposition parties, those with deep pro-Russian ties, only one of which actually held any seats in the parliament. Yeah, it’s basically like the rolling up of the German American Bund at the start of World War II or Mosley’s group of dorks…British Union of fascists (I think) in the UK.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:38
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Once the mud dries up, which it already is clearly starting to, though it appears it's still going to be a while yet, and if Ukrainian starts mounting offenses as opposed to hit and run attacks or fighting out of defensive positions that maximize their advantages, then it's a whole different kind of war from what they've succeeded at so far. I seem to recall that some mid-early assessments figured that the mud would slow the Russians down, but once the mud ended, watch out, because now the Bear could maneuver freely and shatter the Ukrainians on their poor defensive terrain. It would be a very strange turnabout if the ending of the mud actually helped the Ukrainians because now the Russians have exhausted their fuel trying to attack through the mud and the Ukrainians are the ones with mobility. Still, that being said, the mud only really full dries up around the end of April or so, right? That's PROBABLY enough time to stockpile at least some supplies that could keep Russian tanks moving around by then, assuming the Russian bureaucracy unfucks itself. It may not be impossible that the end of the mud season WILL see some Russian offensives. Thing is, by this point, "assuming the Russian bureaucracy unfucks itself" feels like kind of a big ask. The latest White House press briefing from the 22nd suggests that while the Russians are making plans, they still haven't actually started moving supplies from the rest of the country towards the Ukrainian theater. Given how long it took to assemble the supplies for the initial invasion in the first place, I have to think that if they don't start moving now they'll find it hard to get enough stuff in position a month later to do much.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:43
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Comstar posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/tlch9g/the_belarusian_military_contacts_the_ukrainian/  I mean, good if true. It'd be one less headache for UA to deal with.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:43
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Comstar posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/tlch9g/the_belarusian_military_contacts_the_ukrainian/ This has to be just under "Lukashenko fakes his own coup and secretly escapes the country to hide out in a Polish military base until the war ends" on their list of desperate ideas.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:44
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Comstar posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/tlch9g/the_belarusian_military_contacts_the_ukrainian/ While this would be great, this should not be taken with a pinch of salt, or a boulder of salt, this is the entirety of Lake Baskunchak and Bonneville Salt Flats combined in terms of believability right now.
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Mar 24, 2022 03:45
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