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mobby_6kl posted:There were no "red lines" so far, Biden said staright up he wasn't getting involved up until now Biden's comment on chemical weapons being used still doesn't promise military action specifically, just that the U.S. would respond to it to be ambiguous.
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Mar 24, 2022 22:33
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Chalks posted:This seems like extremely heavy bombardment, does anyone know how this compares to previous attacks on other targets? This airport has been hit before I think, but this footage seems to show hundreds of strikes. It seems like Ukraine is ramping up for a heavy attempt to liberate Kherson, possibly before Mariupol falls. Would make the Russian's capture of the rubble of Mariupol feel pretty hollow if they are pushed out of Kyiv and Kherson has been re-taken.
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Mar 24, 2022 22:34
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GaussianCopula posted:I mean ... it does make some sense. they will go with option B. go full Potemkin army/nation.
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Mar 24, 2022 22:35
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Bit difficult for the Russians to tell the people of Kherson they have everything under control when they are getting this nightly fireworks display. Also today really demonstrating the modern reason why in a peer conflict you really need to stay the hell away from populated areas as much as possible - anyone with a cell phone can take a photo of your stuff and ping it to the other side and then any unemployed media studies dropout with googlemaps can geolocate you and work up a strike package.
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Mar 24, 2022 22:38
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Grouchio posted:Wouldn't Putin just use the chemicals the way he wanted to use them anyways? Have any red lines made so far this war been effective? putin would absolutely like to interdict military aid convoys in NATO territory if he could, but he can't because the alliance's collective defense clause is the biggest reddest line on the planet
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Mar 24, 2022 22:38
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Uff https://twitter.com/lionel_trolling/status/1507074615067258886
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Mar 24, 2022 22:44
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evilweasel posted:it really misses a lot of nuance. for something like the purge, you can explain the bizarre legalism less by a "the rules must be obeyed in any bureaucracy" and more that the people involved in a terrible, terrible thing need that fig leaf of rules and the like to disassociate themselves from randomly murdering millions of people with no real coherent reason why. the insistence on confessions fits more into that sort of viewpoint - giving the executioners something to hold onto that they're not murderers - than a bizarre bureaucracy that Must Follow The Rules. and that's his only really good example that he has. This essay was definitely pretty rough, but I think I interpreted the author a bit differently. I don't think they're arguing that the Shadow Bureaucracy is something totally removed from it's participants, and that it must be followed unquestioningly. The argument seems more-so that while to westerners so much of Russian society seems to function by the naked application of force, there is actually a parallel, unwritten set of institutions which guide it. Your examples of needing a fig leaf for executions, or not caring about dissidents already in jail, strike me less like refutations of that point, and more like a continuation explaining how those unwritten rules got to where they are. Now I don't actually know if the essay is right on that point, but that was my main takeaway from reading it.
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Mar 24, 2022 22:47
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Cardboard tanks for the Victory Parade? This is so dumb I'm tempted to think it's just Ukrainian propaganda. Set a false deadline so that Moscow looks bad both for projecting it and for missing it, demoralize the Russian troops who know it's idiotic, etc.
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Mar 24, 2022 22:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This is so dumb I'm tempted to think it's just Ukrainian propaganda. Set a false deadline so that Moscow looks bad both for projecting it and for missing it, demoralize the Russian troops who know it's idiotic, etc. I don’t know I remember how pissed they were about having it delayed due to Covid one year,and made sure that didn’t happen in 2021. So I could see Putin wanting poo poo wrapped up, and besides he’s surrounded by sycophants and people who collects sticks of wood for fun, well maybe not the latter anymore, so it’s not like he’s getting good advice.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:01
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This is so dumb I'm tempted to think it's just Ukrainian propaganda. Set a false deadline so that Moscow looks bad both for projecting it and for missing it, demoralize the Russian troops who know it's idiotic, etc. It's almost certainly Ukrainian propaganda, but I vaguely recall a couple instances during WW2 where Red Army operations were rushed to have success by certain symbolic date. Also Putin loooooooves those dumb propaganda moves. Look at how prevalent Colorado Potato Beetle ribbons have become lately.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:04
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Willo567 posted:Biden's comment on chemical weapons being used still doesn't promise military action specifically, just that the U.S. would respond to it to be ambiguous. Exactly. It’s ambiguous on purpose so it creates uncertainty. Now if Putin contemplates using weapons of mass destruction he’s got to think long and hard about how exactly NATO might respond, instead of just shrugging and thinking “how much more can we be sanctioned? At this point that doesn’t matter much.”
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Mar 24, 2022 23:04
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This is so dumb I'm tempted to think it's just Ukrainian propaganda. Set a false deadline so that Moscow looks bad both for projecting it and for missing it, demoralize the Russian troops who know it's idiotic, etc. Some of the logistic and economic projections I've seen have been saying that Russia won't be capable of waging a real war much longer than that. This might be the Kremlin's way of pushing this point without having to admit it.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:05
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The nazi menace will hopefully be eradicated before the 9th of April.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:07
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Willo567 posted:Biden's comment on chemical weapons being used still doesn't promise military action specifically, just that the U.S. would respond to it to be ambiguous. Yeah I worded that pretty poorly, didn't mean to imply that there's a red line now. But at least it's better than we won't do poo poo.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:09
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:This is so dumb I'm tempted to think it's just Ukrainian propaganda. Set a false deadline so that Moscow looks bad both for projecting it and for missing it, demoralize the Russian troops who know it's idiotic, etc. I don't take it all that seriously but it's certainly believable. Here's some more things to take with grains of salt: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507117009066151946?s=20&t=kTeTwnaPLnKKvFxrrXbogA https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1507103735067164680?s=20&t=kTeTwnaPLnKKvFxrrXbogA https://twitter.com/ZcohenCNN/status/1507110258560405512?s=20&t=kTeTwnaPLnKKvFxrrXbogA https://twitter.com/ruslantrad/status/1507075445392560141?s=20&t=kTeTwnaPLnKKvFxrrXbogA
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Mar 24, 2022 23:14
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More reports of Ukrainians "refugees" in Russia that are actually essentially kidnapping victims. https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1507111857458405392?t=AweRXhf1ovoudXGShrgnYw&s=19 Also reports that the Russians are taking their Ukrainian passports away
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Mar 24, 2022 23:14
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As someone smart once said "Russia is never as strong or as weak as you think", or something similar. Putin can easily drag that war as long as required, even if it means wiping out last 20 years of economic development. People will either move out or just accept hardships. e: I wonder where will they get Russian/Soviet made ground attack planes. NATO members have just a handful. Comedy option: Algeria and Pakistan. alex314 fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 23:16
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Chalks posted:This seems like extremely heavy bombardment, does anyone know how this compares to previous attacks on other targets? This airport has been hit before I think, but this footage seems to show hundreds of strikes. I didn't count the total # of explosions but that looks like just a couple or at most a few MLRS launchers with some rockets with cluster or other submunition payloads mixed in, which presumably are what you can see airbursting over the target. And thankfully used in the exact context they're meant to be used.. Still that's a helluva bombardment, good lord.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:20
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alex314 posted:As someone smart once said "Russia is never as strong or as weak as you think", or something similar. Putin can easily drag that war as long as required, even if it means wiping out last 20 years of economic development. People will either move out or just accept hardships. "Just move out" doesn't work if they close the borders, and there are already reports of Russia turning back people trying to leave.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:25
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Tom Clancy is Dead posted:This article is useful for the 15% of town being controlled by the Russians still and the casualty figures, but oh boy does it spend a lot of time saying "despite what the Ukranians say, this is still a front line, it is not a safe place for civilians" which is arguing against something I don't think the Ukranians ever said. Yeah even from just the opening lines I saw it was weird. Like being recently retaken, and still being under fire, are not like... incompatible. In fact they're very logically connected phenomena!
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Mar 24, 2022 23:26
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Here's some more things to take with grains of salt: No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:28
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The_Franz posted:"Just move out" doesn't work if they close the borders, and there are already reports of Russia turning back people trying to leave. Yeah, I imagine it got a lot trickier that it used to. At least Kaliningrad-Poland border is completely dead. I imagine a lot of people doesn't have means to just hop on a plane to Kazakhstan or China and then either hole up there or move further.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:28
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alex314 posted:As someone smart once said "Russia is never as strong or as weak as you think", or something similar. But they can be eight trillion times more incompetent
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Mar 24, 2022 23:29
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Flappy Bert posted:No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week. Could it be possible that most of the weapons are falling into enemy hands? It's either that or all those cruise missile attacks and bombardments are destroying them.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:31
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I don't take it all that seriously but it's certainly believable. So the Ukrainians are basically asking for AC-130U Spookies which I would say could be very effective in this conflict, but I can't imagine this is realistic since crew training for that is 18 months. I am kind of surprised the US hasn't developed a drone to do the Spooky mission.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:31
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Or they need 500 per day to also arm the forces they are mobilizing and sending out.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:32
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Flappy Bert posted:No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week. Assuming no losses at all, that's one in every thousand soldiers shooting once or twice a day. This is a big war.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:33
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Flappy Bert posted:No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week. Was just gonna say, there's no way they're using 500 stingers per day. But they do probably want to grow the stock to distribute it everywhere. The aircraft and helicopters are more interesting. And problematic, where are they going to get that many Soviet surplus.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:33
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Flappy Bert posted:No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week. I wouldn't take it at face value. Instead, they're continuing to pressure the US to ratchet up its support or the West risks Ukraine losing the war.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:33
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Djarum posted:So the Ukrainians are basically asking for AC-130U Spookies which I would say could be very effective in this conflict, but I can't imagine this is realistic since crew training for that is 18 months. Nah, it's like with the MiG-29s, they're asking for more of what they already have; designed for CAS means it's almost certainly the SU-25s that CZ/Bulgaria still have.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:33
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Threadkiller Dog posted:Or they need 500 per day to also arm the forces they are mobilizing and sending out. This was my thought. They certainly don't need 500 stingers because of daily usage.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:34
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Kraftwerk posted:Could it be possible that most of the weapons are falling into enemy hands? It's either that or all those cruise missile attacks and bombardments are destroying them. There's A LOT of infantry units being formed. I'm surprised he didn't ask for 50k of rifles per week with sufficient ammo. But I imagine a lot of them do get destroyed. Some non-profit dudes in Poland were organizing purchase of uniforms, boots, helmets, and rest of soldier equipment outside of weapons. And in the gifts they've received there were a couple of GPS trackers..
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Mar 24, 2022 23:35
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mobby_6kl posted:Was just gonna say, there's no way they're using 500 stingers per day. But they do probably want to grow the stock to distribute it everywhere. This might be a push to get NATO Eastern European allies to give them theirs in exchange for F35s or whatever older model the US has a surplus of. Specific request at the very least.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:36
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Hungary has at least 23 Fulcrums rotting in hangars, the military tried to auction them off a few years ago but no-one wanted them.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:37
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Flappy Bert posted:No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week. I seen a maxim about never underestimate how much a useful munition will be used in war. I am not sure about the Stingers but I always laughed when people talked about how many javelins there were for each Russian tank (ie, implying each tank was going to be killed each time over) as if the rockets will not be used in multiples on tanks, used on buildings, individual soldiers, letter boxes and for celebrating a Lionel Messi goal. e) and I never thought about it before but if you can aim a Stinger at a person, they will get uses as sniper rockets. - ie, Ukraine will want 10's of thousands of these things, 100's of thousands if it drags on. Electric Wrigglies fucked around with this message at 23:41 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 23:38
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As anyone who has ever sold something on Craigslist or goon mart knows, if you want to get $50 for your doodad you list it for $100.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:39
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Ouch, this seems like a tough thing to lose. Not sure how it got captured unless a front got completely overrun, wouldn't something like this be deep within friendly territory? https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1507105187940515840
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Mar 24, 2022 23:40
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with a rebel yell she QQd posted:Hungary has at least 23 Fulcrums rotting in hangars, the military tried to auction them off a few years ago but no-one wanted them. Unfortunately, they're in Hungary...
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Mar 24, 2022 23:40
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Kraftwerk posted:Could it be possible that most of the weapons are falling into enemy hands? It's either that or all those cruise missile attacks and bombardments are destroying them. We’d know if that was the case. The total of Russian propaganda captures over the month is like 10 Javelins on video. I think it’s Threadkiller Dog posted:Or they need 500 per day to also arm the forces they are mobilizing and sending out. This. We’re hitting month since maximum mobilisation was announced quite soon, and it’s likely a safe assumption to say that Ukraine is unable to given the fanciest of launchers to each reserves squad. Could be other things, like them preparing or Kharkiv or Kyiv siege and asking for the allies to increase deliveries. Lastly, it’s a negotiation. When you need 250, you ask for 375 - might as well round up to 500 then, so it’s pretty. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Mar 24, 2022 |
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Mar 24, 2022 23:41
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Flappy Bert posted:No kidding, how is that even possible? If you take that at face value either the hit rate is miniscule, the missiles are getting captured left and right, or Russia won't have anything motorized by this time next week. It's not as simple as one missile = one dead Russian tank or aircraft. A lot of the AA missiles miss for various reasons. A lot of the tanks don't get fully destroyed with one hit or miss altogether. That's why when people say the Ukrainians have more missiles than Russia has vehicles to blow up, it doesn't mean that Ukrainians won't need more missiles sent to them.
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Mar 24, 2022 23:42
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