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Tomn posted:Freshly raised light infantry formations aren't really a replacement for well-trained and experienced mechanized/armored formations which are what you'll want in an offensive, and Ukraine isn't getting new tanks and IFVs. Don't discount this analysis, it tracks with most other experts that I've seen in its particulars. This is true; however, those experts are probably working off limited information (as are we, probably more so, to be clear). And it could be in either direction. e: Also, it would be at least somewhat helpful to know what "experts and officials" he is referring to--those terms cover a lot of ground. I do agree that in general a number of experts have been predicting a lengthy war of attrition for a while, and that's not necessarily a bad prediction. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 06:49 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Anyone who thinks Ukraine won't win this is a communist sympathizer. Wait what do you mean Putin isn't trying to revive the USSR? Sir John Falstaff posted:This is true; however, those experts are probably working off limited information (as are we, probably more so, to be clear). And it could be in either direction. Most likely the experts are working off of less information than we have. The reason I see that is information that's not verified comes into this thread quite often even if it's a half truth it can still change the battlefield significantly. Well they have much more institutional information some of this is mired in intelligence censoring or removal of facts that aren't verified. So while we can't take everything that we're reading for granted we can at least Factor it into other parts and put puzzles together based on the information presented to us. I mean the fact is the US has been saying that Belarus is going to invade Ukraine for like the last month and it hasn't happened yet. I'm sure that's based off of more than a few expert opinions. However in this thread we laugh it off because we're looking objectively at the Belarusian government as well as leaked information about the Belarusian army essentially wishing to surrender if it's sent to ukraine. And we're not sure if that's right or wrong but it could be a fact that it goes into lukashenko's decision not to invade and continue to ask for delays. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:23 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 06:20
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ZombieLenin posted:You would think so, but I can promise you the secondary explosion we have all seen in that video did not come from the Diesel fuel tanks on that landing craft. I saw some tweets showing what they claimed were Russian intercepts claiming an initial estimate of 50KIA and 200 wounded.
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Mar 25, 2022 06:22
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Tomn posted:
I think this is the wrong way to look at this. Everyone seems to envision a counter attack as some armored thrust into the rear of the enemy. I just don't think that's what fits here. Look at the current counter attacks by UA. They arent throwing armor and mechanized units head on. I think what we will see is more infantry lead, slower but more deliberate attacks. Infantry loaded with AT weapons and manpads taking point and armor as supporting role. This is slower and less sexy but if UA can bring up those reserves and apply pressure multiple axis, they can start willing back RA gains. This favors UA, there's not as many Russian bodies coming reinforce and combat power degrades exponentially as casualties mount with no replenishment.
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Mar 25, 2022 06:22
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Tomn posted:
Russia has been supplying them replacements, don't worry. I saw an unconfirmed report that they have 50 more tanks than they started with (though they've lost a fair number with I assume their crews). IFVs are probably similar. Ukraine is not at a loss for equipment. It may be understaffed with experienced crews though, but existential fighting is a hell of a motivator to get gud quick. Plus it helps that the Russians are apparently even more poo poo at driving armor.
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Mar 25, 2022 06:23
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I mean even if you don't teach someone to pilot the tank very effectively, using it as a glass Cannon isn't difficult it's point and shoot for the most part especially with these Auto loaders that don't require a gunner. Like I said early on in this thread, disabled tanks that still have working turrets tanks that have run out of gas etc are still very useful. They can be used for blockades they can be used for makeshift bomb shelters, they can be used like an anti-tank gun. If the ukrainians were truly on the cusp of defeat they would be using suicide bombers by now and the JFO would have been evacuated across the dniper WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 06:24
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One of the main reasons for autoloaders being used in Russian tanks was so they can save on crew training costs and get an extra tank crew for every 3 tanks they field.
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Mar 25, 2022 06:28
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Also, while infantry isn't great on the offensive when it comes to assaulting fortified positions, Ukraine seems to be doing a lot of attacks where it's basically soldiers on foot advancing at night and conducting more skirmishing and/or guerilla style warfare, which they've been doing to good effect. So much so that there's been speculation they're conserving their actually armored/mechanized forces for a potential big push later. This is also supposedly taking advantage of them being much better equipped with night vision equipment than the Russians. So basically the conventional wisdom that unsupported infantry are at a disadvantage on the offensive might not be so true in Ukraine, at least until Russia shifts tactics. Bremen fucked around with this message at 06:47 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 06:41
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Anyone who thinks Ukraine won't win this is a communist sympathizer. As informative as this thread is I don't for a second think there's more accurate information here than what global intelligence agencies are able to pull together using the resources available to them. Zhanism posted:I think this is the wrong way to look at this. Everyone seems to envision a counter attack as some armored thrust into the rear of the enemy. I just don't think that's what fits here. Look at the current counter attacks by UA. They arent throwing armor and mechanized units head on. I think what we will see is more infantry lead, slower but more deliberate attacks. Infantry loaded with AT weapons and manpads taking point and armor as supporting role. Yeah this is the sort of counterattacking I envisage. An infantry screen keeping Russian anti tank weapons away from Ukrainian tanks but able to call them up if they want a strongpoint blown to poo poo. Night raids to take advantage of the disparity in night fighting equipment. Utilisation of NATO intelligence gathering to strike a weaker sectors and threaten the flanks of more strongly defended sectors. Continual harassment of supply lines to weaken Russian units. It would also be a much less taxing way to introduce new recruits to combat, and the failure of a group of new recruits in some localised attack isn't going to have the same impact to Ukraine's overall position compared to a failure of part of a large counteroffensive. cinci zoo sniper posted:Total would be 7 dead generals, but the confirmations are not rushing to present themselves. Weren't there thought to be 20 or so in total to begin with? Tomn posted:You know, we talk about fog of war here with our information sourced from Twitter, but with how overworked Russian officers are compared to US officers, with how spotty and poo poo their communications are, and with how many officers have actually been getting targeted, and with the fact that there's no apparent overall commander of the Ukrainian War, I wonder if there actually is ANYBODY at the Kremlin with a really coherent and accurate understanding of what's happening in Ukraine, let alone Putin. Receiving scattered, disjointed reports from people who've been awake for far too long on far too much caffeine under far too much stress and trying to decide if a lack of report is because of bad communications, overwork, or commander/unit death might well be just as confusing as trying to sift through open source intelligence, especially if there's no one person or organization actually collating all those reports and they're all going to different siloed commanders who not only have to interpret what they're hearing, but pretty it up for the people up the chain. That's a really good point. It would certainly go a long way towards explaining some of the questionable strategic decision making we've seen since things started getting bogged down. The other factor I don't think you mentioned is officers potentially passing reports up the chain saying things are much better than they really are. "Oh, that town you ordered my company to capture? Yeah, we've nearly got it. No, no problems at our end."
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Mar 25, 2022 06:46
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Seth Pecksniff posted:Nice can mean different things to different people. If you watch the WHCA you can see them yucking it up with the other correspondents, right before Tucker goes on air and says how it's just an elite ball and they hate everyone who's not them. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/25/us-volunteers-reach-the-frontline-of-the-war-in-ukraine Vasquez posted:The first video was posted by James Vasquez, a US army veteran and building contractor from Connecticut, who, according to his Twitter feed, arrived in Poland on 15 March and crossed into Ukraine the next day, bringing with him several surveillance drones. He was sent to the frontlines from Lviv on 18 March.
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Mar 25, 2022 06:48
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This whole thing has to be poo poo pants terrifying thing to US defense spending right? Like however hundreds of billions spent to knock off russia could have been a write off?
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Mar 25, 2022 06:52
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Bremen posted:Also, while infantry isn't great on the offensive when it comes to assaulting fortified positions, Ukraine seems to be doing a lot of attacks where it's basically soldiers on foot advancing at night and conducting more skirmishing and/or guerilla style warfare, which they've been doing to good effect. So much so that there's been speculation they're conserving their actually armored/mechanized forces for a potential big push later. This is also supposedly taking advantage of them being much better equipped with night vision equipment than the Russians. At the end of the day if Ukraine can keep up what they've been doing so far most Russian forces in Ukraine will likely cease to exist as an effective fighting force within a month or so. My assumption is that with 400,000 or so veterans of the Donbas conflict and a fuckton of western weapons flooding into the country Ukraine is able to keep this up for quite some time. Also given this is their country I think they'll maintain the will to continue fighting for far longer than Russian conscripts can. One thing that would be very interesting to start getting some information on is the state of the new vehicles being bought in by Russia. We've seen trainloads of IFVs, and more IFVs being unloaded from ships but can we expect the condition of those vehicles to be any better than the ones prepared for the initial invasion? I think it could go two ways: 1) the replacement vehicles have been rushed out of storage and are in poo poo condition, or 2) the original vehicles weren't expected to experience much combat and no effort was made to prepare them but any replacement vehicles have been given a thorough service before being sent in.
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Mar 25, 2022 06:55
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gay picnic defence posted:As informative as this thread is I don't for a second think there's more accurate information here than what global intelligence agencies are able to pull together using the resources available to them. I agree, but I'm not sure, partly because it's unclear who the "experts and officials" referred to in the Twitter thread are, whether those experts and officials would be privy to what the global intelligence agencies have pulled together, and if they were, whether they would be able to release that information. Still probably better information than this thread, though. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 07:00 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 06:55
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Bremen posted:Also, while infantry isn't great on the offensive when it comes to assaulting fortified positions, Ukraine seems to be doing a lot of attacks where it's basically soldiers on foot advancing at night and conducting more skirmishing and/or guerilla style warfare, which they've been doing to good effect. So much so that there's been speculation they're conserving their actually armored/mechanized forces for a potential big push later. This is also supposedly taking advantage of them being much better equipped with night vision equipment than the Russians. This is exactly what is happening and I found this interview with an ex-US marine fighting in Ukraine to be a great look at how this is playing out on the ground: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/
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Mar 25, 2022 06:57
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Sir John Falstaff posted:I agree, but I'm not sure, partly because it's unclear who the "experts and officials" referred to in the Twitter thread are, whether those experts and officials would be privy to what the global intelligence agencies have pulled together, and if they were, whether they would be able to release that information. Even if some stuff is getting released by intelligence agencies to 'experts and officials' who are free to disseminate it, there will be heaps they don't release for OPSEC reasons that nonetheless influences their view of the progress and likely outcomes of the war.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:00
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a sexual elk posted:This whole thing has to be poo poo pants terrifying thing to US defense spending right? Like however hundreds of billions spent to knock off russia could have been a write off? Are you kidding? We're gonna send old stuff to Ukraine and replace it. This is gonna be great for the defense industry. ....Not to mention there may suddenly be a lot more interest in buying new equipment from US allies.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:06
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Sir John Falstaff posted:Yeah, wikipedia seems to think Alligator-class landing ships can carry 300-425 troops and 20 tanks or 40 AFVs. So if that's accurate, it's not really possible. This is all fault of the English language, since it doesn't have a specific 'exclusive or' word 
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Mar 25, 2022 07:09
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a sexual elk posted:This whole thing has to be poo poo pants terrifying thing to US defense spending right? Like however hundreds of billions spent to knock off russia could have been a write off? It was already mostly a write of.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:11
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Small White Dragon posted:Are you kidding? We're gonna send old stuff to Ukraine and replace it. This is gonna be great for the defense industry. No I mean that was the point but same time who the gently caress is the US’s defense budget pointed at now? China can’t do poo poo against the US economy wise. Russia just put the world on a platter
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Mar 25, 2022 07:22
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China will easily be the new boogieman. Though to be fair China does seem to be interested in expanding its influence too. How much so and how much they're really interested in attacking either the US, NATO, or some other western friendly nation I have no clue. Even if they aren't really interested in military adventures the defense industry will gleefully present them as such in order to drum up interest for their latest wares.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:33
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a sexual elk posted:This whole thing has to be poo poo pants terrifying thing to US defense spending right? Like however hundreds of billions spent to knock off russia could have been a write off? Every Russian arms buyer is probably reconsidering their contracts so no
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Mar 25, 2022 07:37
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. I wasn't expecting this when I scrolled to it, so I got to have a sudden surprised smile and feeling of warmth and well-being. It won't last, but it was real. mllaneza fucked around with this message at 08:05 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 07:39
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Ever since Russian air traffic bans were instated the fastest way to get from St. Petersburg to the EU was to take the train to Helsinki. However the Finnish state has decided to halt express train traffic to St Petersburg starting from tomorrow for unspecified reasons.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:41
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:China will easily be the new boogieman. There’s this neat little island called Taiwan…
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Mar 25, 2022 07:41
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Natty Ninefingers posted:There’s this neat little island called Taiwan… Recently they've been more vocal about doing so but whether or not its for real I have no clue.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:45
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a sexual elk posted:No I mean that was the point but same time who the gently caress is the US’s defense budget pointed at now? China can’t do poo poo against the US economy wise. Russia just put the world on a platter The US just lost a 20 year war last year. The US is no position to INVADE anyone and win/ Turns out, neither are the Russians.
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Mar 25, 2022 07:45
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Comstar posted:The US just lost a 20 year war last year. The US is no position to INVADE anyone and win/ You're a little confused as to the difference between invading and occupying
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Mar 25, 2022 07:53
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Ah someone finally found footage of Zelensky and Putin at a KVN concert from 20 years ago, wonderful for Adam Curtis https://twitter.com/Abscurat/status/1506702016575422468?t=Qb-2hh1vs8VH08mrqDIY3Q&s=19 "President Putin got the letter: count your population nine times and you shall find happiness" (I dont get the joke either, is it about chain letters or that the census is done every ten years...? )
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Mar 25, 2022 07:59
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Comstar posted:The US just lost a 20 year war last year. The US is no position to INVADE anyone and win/ Either the ancient Romans or Greeks had an expression for this situation: "winning the war, losing the peace". The USA won't be able to win any peace in a while, but winning a war basically anywhere that does not have nukes? That one they can do. Hopefully we'll dodge idiots thinking that can = should in the White House for a while, but I'm not going to hold my breath.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:04
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a sexual elk posted:This whole thing has to be poo poo pants terrifying thing to US defense spending right? Like however hundreds of billions spent to knock off russia could have been a write off? Like the US is putting in billions -figures I'm seeing seem to add up to like 30 billion if your being generous, but I'm sure it will go up- to this yeah, but I'm sure the Military brass in the US would consider it a loving bargain. A major adversary -their own words- power is getting wrecked and has lost influence world wide in every way there is. I'm sure the US military would consider that a big win at 50 times that. But also needs to be said the biggest cost of war is being paid for by them obviously. Dollar ways it's cheap, but yeah...
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Mar 25, 2022 08:05
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Omobono posted:Either the ancient Romans or Greeks had an expression for this situation: "winning the war, losing the peace". Hopefully more american can draw some parallels between what they've been doing for a long time and this invasion but yeah  I will be very generous and give them 10 years.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:12
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:China will easily be the new boogieman. Did find it interesting in a statement by I believe the DoD that was posted here, where they stated that they considered Russia adversarial, but China more mixed, and someone who they could work with. Know obviously that could of just been PR and because they are in discussions at the moment with China about Russia, but even just because of trade dependencies far easy to see China and US always being able to talk out difference rather than ever coming into to conflict. Somewhat uneasy peace or whatever.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:19
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Bremen posted:Also, while infantry isn't great on the offensive when it comes to assaulting fortified positions, Ukraine seems to be doing a lot of attacks where it's basically soldiers on foot advancing at night and conducting more skirmishing and/or guerilla style warfare, which they've been doing to good effect. So much so that there's been speculation they're conserving their actually armored/mechanized forces for a potential big push later. This is also supposedly taking advantage of them being much better equipped with night vision equipment than the Russians. Well, the Ukrainians have night vision gear and modern optics which make them so much more dangerous at night and at range than Russian infantry. Unless the Russians fix those deficiencies they are going to be steadily chewed up by Ukrainian infantry. It's slow, but it works. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Mar 25, 2022 |
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Mar 25, 2022 08:19
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dr_rat posted:Did find it interesting in a statement by I believe the DoD that was posted here, where they stated that they considered Russia adversarial, but China more mixed, and someone who they could work with. Know obviously that could of just been PR and because they are in discussions at the moment with China about Russia, but even just because of trade dependencies far easy to see China and US always being able to talk out difference rather than ever coming into to conflict. Somewhat uneasy peace or whatever. There is also less of an ideological component in China/US headbutting, much as there in theory should be for US/Russia, but the shadow of  is long.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:28
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Small White Dragon posted:Are you kidding? We're gonna send old stuff to Ukraine and replace it. This is gonna be great for the defense industry.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:Well, the Ukrainians have night vision gear and modern optics which make them so much more dangerous at night and at range than Russian infantry. Unless the Russians fix those deficiencies they are going to be steadily chewed up by Ukrainian infantry. It's slow, but it works. If those Russian casualty numbers of around 40K dead/wounded are true, over a period of a bit more than a month of fighting, along with all that lost equipment then it doesn't seem that slow. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html Russia - 1794, of which: destroyed: 877, damaged: 34, abandoned: 228, captured: 655 I think some people were just expecting some things to go faster based on a combo of leaked military assessments of the Russian army, how bad the Russians did initially, and maybe some rose tinted glasses as far as the capabilities of the Ukrainians go. The Ukrainians are actually doing a heck of a lot of damage fairly quickly just not hyper fast.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:43
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Grouchio posted:What can Biden do to make sure Tucker Carlson can't rant on air anymore? What Putin did to Russia's press. Is that what you want? Yes it is.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:49
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:If those Russian casualty numbers of around 40K dead/wounded are true, over a period of a bit more than a month of fighting, along with all that lost equipment then it doesn't seem that slow.... If 40K dead/wounded is true than nah, Ukraine army isn't going fairly quick, that's hyper fast. Those are pretty crazy numbers, particularly with Russian troop numbers put at aprox 200k. I think those numbers are pretty high, but if there not that's, without re-reinforcements, things continuing as they are, the russian invading army effectively collapsing in the next month.
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Mar 25, 2022 08:57
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dr_rat posted:If 40K dead/wounded is true than nah, Ukraine army isn't going fairly quick, that's hyper fast. Those are pretty crazy numbers, particularly with Russian troop numbers put at aprox 200k. That's like a 20% loss of strength over a month. Someone posted the math earlier that at 70% strength, a military force can't conduct offensive operations and at 50% barely capable of maintaining a cohesive defense.. poo poo, we're already seeing the Russians getting slower and slower gains and even losing and getting pocketed. They're probably already at 70%, it's just that the fog of war is making things slow to confirm.
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Mar 25, 2022 09:04
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War is easy, governance is hard. China has zero force projection. Theyll do their inept soft power and keep loaning to people who will never pay them back. That said they are far easier to work with than putinland
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