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Cimber posted:I feel awful for laughing at this. This is terrible and funny, but then I discovered they really did bid for this? 
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Mar 27, 2022 03:49
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https://twitter.com/asamiterajima/status/1507865622746701836 I hope everyone is ready for round 2 of hot potato.
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Mar 27, 2022 03:53
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Huge if it happens. Next the Ukrainians will need to start being supplied with Tanks and artillery pieces. 155mm guns to start. And NATO small arms. Lots and lots of NATO small arms.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:01
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Huge if it happens. "Jim has kinda small arms. I guess we can send him?" [Jim in the background] "Hey!" 
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Mar 27, 2022 04:04
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Giving them Nato small arms is an incredibly stupid idea because you are introducing an entirely different logistical chain and unfamilar weapons when the stuff they are familiar with and are currently using is both dirt cheap and incredibly avalible (and that they can use captured supplies for). Just give them better optics.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:08
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In light not-really-news, I think someone Ukrainian pranked Time magazine: https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1507630496209149952 Edit: post 2 had more context
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Mar 27, 2022 04:09
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Mokotow posted:For one thing, it’d be a significant challenge to shift units from Belarus and northern Ukraine back east. Vox Nihili posted:Giving up a potential negotiating chip and one of their only significant gains seems pretty crazy to me. It's much easier to defend territory than seize it. Kherson is on the Dneipr, western bank. It is the last bridge over the Dniepr before the Black Sea. Holding it would vital if you intended to continue along the Black Sea coast towards Mykolayiv (last crossing point on the Bug) and on towards Odessa. That attack is no longer on the table - whether it is because the Russians have truly decided to try and unfuck themselves and mass enough force to take over the claimed territories of the 2 Donbas Republic, or whether the Russian military simply no longer has enough units to make the drive the in face of higher than expected Ukrainian resistance - means that city of Kherson itself is now of limited value as a military objective. You don't even necessarily need to move all the troops back towards the commands tasked with taking Donetsk and Luhansk regions (which they can since they opened their land corridor with the isolation of Mariupol). You can retask the remains of these units to guard the few crossings over the Dneipr which the Russians control below Zaporizhzhya at a cheap price and assign the fresh and reconstituted/merged units you are assembling for the new strategy rather than try to hold the If the Russians (big if) do manage to say carve out the self-declared boundaries for Donetsk and Luhansk and/or maybe take Kharkiv, the fact that Kherson is no longer in their hands is irrelevant. And it is clear they need all the help they can get from the other sectors if they are to succeed in this effort. The Ukrainians have been reporting that the Russians have tried repeatedly in the past several days to try and capture ground and claim to have basically turned back every assault. The Ukrainians so far have rarely outright lied about successes, have accurately reported loss of territory when it has occurred. This is not me saying this is what the Russians are thinking and doing. I am simply offering an alternative suggestion (other than the Russian Army falling apart before our eyes!!!!) as to why the Ukrainians are picking up ground much faster here (and in the Chernihiv Oblasts) than they are in other areas like the NW of Kyiv where the Russians are being reinforced and digging in hard. No encirclement in the cards by the way. I carefully went back and looked at the Ukrainian's messaging and they never implied anything of the sort. It was a UK MoD briefing that suggested the possibility of a very small pocket-forming in Bucha and Irpin but the situation has either been stabilized by the Russians or the Ukrainians do not have the force to finish the issue (zero reporting on the area for 3 days now after retaking Makariv and Moschun). Ivankov remains safe in Russian hands and Teterivske was just misreporting. The Ukrainians never retook anything as Teterviske never fell to the Russians as far as I can tell. It lay between 2 Russian attacks that went down Ivankov -> Kyiv and the small attack to try and seize Kukari. It looks increasingly like a small unit of Russians probed down the road and got shot up by Territorial units and that was the end of it. Kraftwerk posted:There’s still news outlets like the Washington Post and WSJ that are insisting that Russia could still win this war. So I’m waiting for what the upset is going to be. Maybe at some point UA troops get lured to the borders believing the Russians are retreating and hit a prepared position that annihilates a division. There are a lot of scenarios where the Russians could win. We have no idea right now what the state of the Ukrainian armed forces is in. How many casualties they have suffered, how many vehicles they have left, what is the state of the regular brigades after a month of fighting etc. Such a huge unknown variable to write off the possibility of a Russian victory. We have no idea how long NATO unity will last and how long they are prepared to ship an endless supply of weapons into Ukraine to keep them fighting while suffering the side effect of economic sanctions that they imposed. The food price spike is going to hit everyone hard this summer and autumn as the Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports are kaput, and Russia is now hoarding the fertilizer that it exports. It could be conceivable that in 6 months' time, Russia manages to hang on through energy exports to India and China combined with the EU looking at the upcoming winter and not wanting to freeze to death at which point they whisper to Zelensky to just take the deal, surrender territory and get on with life as they don't know how much longer they can keep supporting him. MikeC fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 04:15
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Telsa Cola posted:Giving them Nato small arms is an incredibly stupid idea because you are introducing an entirely different logistical chain and unfamilar weapons when the stuff they are familiar with and are currently using is both dirt cheap and incredibly avalible (and that they can use captured supplies for). I figure it depends whether the west can keep supplying small arms they are familiar with along with ammo to suit, or if the larger volumes of western-made weapons with NATO standard calibers that can be supplied make the resultant logistical difficulties within Ukraine worthwhile.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:25
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Another small success on a slow news day: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507812421553074177 Trostyanets is south of Sumy.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:30
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How does NATO get Russian weapons for Ukraine? Do they ask a country that currently uses Russian hardware to order some on their behalf? Are there private arms dealers who have a large stock pile of weapons and equipment that they can order from? Do they just buy them from a country that currently uses them?
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Mar 27, 2022 04:34
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Mr. Apollo posted:How does NATO get Russian weapons for Ukraine? Do they ask a country that currently uses Russian hardware to order some on their behalf? Are there private arms dealers who have a large stock pile of weapons and equipment that they can order from? Do they just buy them from a country that currently uses them? I think most would be coming from former Warsaw Pact countries.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:36
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Mr. Apollo posted:Do they just buy them from a country that currently uses them? Hey, Poland/Greece/Slovakia/Hungary, look at all that Soviet equipment you have, want a discount on Patriot/F-16 if your existing stuff goes to Ukraine?
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Mar 27, 2022 04:38
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Mr. Apollo posted:How does NATO get Russian weapons for Ukraine? Do they ask a country that currently uses Russian hardware to order some on their behalf? Are there private arms dealers who have a large stock pile of weapons and equipment that they can order from? Do they just buy them from a country that currently uses them? A lot of the ex-Warsaw Pact countries now in NATO were equipped with Russian (or Russian-compatible) gear for obvious reasons. They can and have transferred their stocks to Ukraine in the past. Four NATO countries still use T-72s, for instance. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 04:44 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 04:39
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.  
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Mar 27, 2022 04:48
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Deteriorata posted:Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. Where photo
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Mar 27, 2022 04:50
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gay picnic defence posted:I think the people who thought from the outset that Russia would have problems were the hardcore military nerds for whom trucks and forklifts are more exciting then tanks and self propelled artillery. There were a number of factors that made me think Russia wasn't going to win easily: 1. Ukraine was never out numbered, having an active military similar in size to Russia's invasion force (not to mention vast numbers of reserves) 2. Ukraine was obviously going to get a poo poo tonne of aid from the west, meaning their military was going to be quite a bit stronger than the "on paper" projections. 3. Ukraine has been fighting for years now and have had almost a decade to anticipate the invasion, prepare battle plans, and train troops 4. Russia doesn't have a good record of invading nearby countries, famously failing to take Finland despite a huge military size advantage, and struggling to take Chechnya (a place with like 5% of Ukraine's population) over two costly wars 5. Morale being in Ukraine's favour to a ridiculous extent, it didn't surprise me one bit that Ukrainians were almost unanimously furious about the invasion. 6. Ukraine having the defensive advantage. I didn't think ~200 000 soldiers was a big enough invasion force for a peer to peer conflict in a country the size of Ukraine. The US and allies brought over half a million soldiers and personnel to Iraq There are a number of other factors going in Ukraine's favour I didn't anticipate too. Western intelligence supported Ukraine to a far greater extent (it seems) than was anticipated. Putin picked possibly the worst possible date to start this war right at the start of the mud season. The economic sanctions were harsher than expected and put Russia under pressure early. Russia being so corrupt that their intelligence agencies half assed invasion preparations, and the military still using soviet era stuff while soldiers sell off gear being told they aren't going to war. Oh also I'm very much a layperson, reader of ancient battles, armchair general nerd type. I understand my knowledge of modern warfare isn't that great, but for what it's worth I was never convinced by the "Russia is gonna win it's a certainty" crowd.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:54
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Mr. Apollo posted:How does NATO get Russian weapons for Ukraine? Do they ask a country that currently uses Russian hardware to order some on their behalf? Are there private arms dealers who have a large stock pile of weapons and equipment that they can order from? Do they just buy them from a country that currently uses them? Former Warsaw Pact countries now in NATO send their stuff to Ukraine, and the US/UK/France backfills the stuff they need with their NATO standardized equipment. Ukraine gets familiar stuff they have ammo for, the donators get upgraded missiles/fighters/tanks/whatever, and the alliance’s equipment gets more standardized for easier logistics down the line. Everyone wins. Except the Russians, but gently caress the Russians.
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Mar 27, 2022 04:56
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America utilizes huge stockpiles of USSR gear to mask it's involvement in conflicts. Not this one specifically but others. So we have a large pile of this poo poo ready to be dropped into Africa or south America and supply fascist death squads in either.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:02
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jmnmu posted:People have been in denial of the Russian military struggling in this conflict from the beginning, despite all of the evidence pointing towards Russia taking major loses and having severe logistical and strategic problems. "There's just no way Russia won't win" was a fairly popular talking point but it seems to have finally died down. I never for one moment thought it was going to be easy for Russia, I was pretty confident it would be a costly and difficult war regardless of who would win. Historically military conflicts frequently do not go the way you would expect on paper. Swings of morale, one or two environmental factors, or one or two boneheaded decisions are all that's needed to swing a certain victory to a devastating rout. I don't get why so many were confident in there being only one likely outcome in Russia's favour. I didn’t think the that Russia would win quickly — Ukraine is too big — but I did think they would win decisively. This was based on the circumstances surrounding invasion. They had 8 (more?) years to plan, they massed their troops on like 4 simultaneous fronts. Then, with endless opportunities to turn back if things did not look absolutely ideal, they chose to invade at a moment deemed supremely advantageous to their project. So sure, if they’re going to attack unprovoked in a long planned premeditated war of choice, and at a moment of their own choosing, and face consequences like sanctions etc, you figure they have some idea what the gently caress they’re doing. Not just unleashing a shambolic, bloody farce for the whole world to see. I was under the impression the Russians had something remotely resembling a realistic appraisal of their own military’s abilities and that of the Ukrainians.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:02
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Deteriorata posted:Another small success on a slow news day: They also liberated the villages in Poltavka and Malynivka in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507902750520233986?s=20&t=yUacdp24HG1erj00Zp0o3w https://twitter.com/Steph_in_Cali/status/1507915105538756613?s=20&t=yUacdp24HG1erj00Zp0o3w https://twitter.com/Steph_in_Cali/status/1507914564775555078?s=20&t=yUacdp24HG1erj00Zp0o3w 50 klicks west of Mariupol.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:02
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Telsa Cola posted:Giving them Nato small arms is an incredibly stupid idea because you are introducing an entirely different logistical chain and unfamilar weapons when the stuff they are familiar with and are currently using is both dirt cheap and incredibly avalible (and that they can use captured supplies for). For now it is a dumb idea since the amount of weapons and ammo is plentiful. If the conflict continues months into the future you start to run into issue for certain Warsaw Pact weapons to have ammo shortages. At that point moving over to NATO caliber small arms makes sense for those since the supply and manufacture of those calibers of ammo will be easily supplied. This is a future problem that needs to be considered now so you can handle logistics for in before it becomes an issue and you are forced to make rash decisions in the moment that can cost you dearly.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:09
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:America utilizes huge stockpiles of USSR gear to mask it's involvement in conflicts. Not this one specifically but others. So we have a large pile of this poo poo ready to be dropped into Africa or south America and supply fascist death squads in either. Not America per say but Western arms dealers. I have had a run in or two with some over the years. One offered to sell me stuff and deliver it by submarine. Needless to say if you got money and you want something you can get it delivered to you anywhere in the world.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:15
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The US already started giving them small arms with the last aid package. A lot of it was shotguns, apparently, but yeah logistics aside NATO can absolutely afford to send more than enough ammo with the guns they send. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ Here they have the breakdown. 5000 rifles, I'm sure those aren't AK's.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:15
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Delthalaz posted:I was under the impression the Russians had something remotely resembling a realistic appraisal of their own military’s abilities and that of the Ukrainians. Yeah this was a major surprise for me too. I didn't think the war would happen at all because it seemed to me that it would be too costly to be worthwhile. I was under the impression that Putin was playing a trolling game and using his soft bully power by placing troops by the border. I was incredibly wrong there. After reading up on Alexander Dugin the picture is starting to make more sense to me now though. This whole mess seems to be based in ridiculous ideological beliefs rather than any kind of shrewd geopolitical calculations.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:16
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God if the Ukrainians lift the siege or even create a corridor that will be an insane morale boost. Or if they encircle the semi circlement and destroy the Nazi guns trained on the mariupol children's hospital
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Mar 27, 2022 05:17
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Djarum posted:Not America per say but Western arms dealers. I have had a run in or two with some over the years. One offered to sell me stuff and deliver it by submarine. Needless to say if you got money and you want something you can get it delivered to you anywhere in the world. I'm gonna need details on this.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:18
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Delthalaz posted:I didn’t think the that Russia would win quickly — Ukraine is too big — but I did think they would win decisively. This was based on the circumstances surrounding invasion. They had 8 (more?) years to plan, they massed their troops on like 4 simultaneous fronts. Then, with endless opportunities to turn back if things did not look absolutely ideal, they chose to invade at a moment deemed supremely advantageous to their project. So sure, if they’re going to attack unprovoked in a long planned premeditated war of choice, and at a moment of their own choosing, and face consequences like sanctions etc, you figure they have some idea what the gently caress they’re doing. Not just unleashing a shambolic, bloody farce for the whole world to see. I was under the impression the Russians had something remotely resembling a realistic appraisal of their own military’s abilities and that of the Ukrainians. They invaded in mud season…
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Mar 27, 2022 05:20
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a sexual elk posted:They invaded in mud season… Right but wouldn’t Russian military leaders, who presumably grew up in a country that included Ukraine, be pretty familiar with it?
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Mar 27, 2022 05:33
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Delthalaz posted:Right but wouldn’t Russian military leaders, who presumably grew up in a country that included Ukraine, be pretty familiar with it? Mud is suppose to defeat Nazis not real Russians.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:36
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Young Freud posted:They also liberated the villages in Poltavka and Malynivka in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. If correct it also threatens Berdyansk which could be a bigger blow to the forces besieging Mariupol. Even if Ukraine lacks the forces to push any further it's a major threat to Russia's supply lines in the area and demands a response, probably requiring Russian troops to be relocated away from areas Russia would prefer they were.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:36
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KillHour posted:I'm gonna need details on this. Years ago I was looking for parts for a certain rare firearm. A guy contacted me that was a big arms dealer. I think he thought I was a mercenary or something based on what I was looking for. I basically got quotes for more than I was asking for with the cost of delivery via submarine or air depending on where I was located. Pretty wild stuff. I have met a few others over the years. A lot of people got rich after the fall of the USSR and later in Iraq and Afghanistan. Remember a lot of small arms never go back home since it is cheaper to just buy new that ship them. They are either left behind or sold to someone. Let's say you are a poor country or under sanctions so no manufacturer will deal with you directly. There is any number of these guys who will supply you with whatever you can afford. Most of the smart ones don't get involved in anywhere that the US or any of the big guns are going to care about so they are left alone.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:38
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Delthalaz posted:Right but wouldn’t Russian military leaders, who presumably grew up in a country that included Ukraine, be pretty familiar with it? Yes, but I don't think they had a choice if you assume they thought they had a tough fight ahead of them. If they wait until mid-May when the mud season ends they are forced to fight a Ukrainian army that is even better prepared than the one they expected. If they genuinely expected to simply blow a bit of poo poo up and then march triumphantly into Kyiv then the mud isn't a factor because you're just rolling down the highway.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:40
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Was I dreaming or did someone post something in this thread before The invasion even occurred that basically laid out how Russia was going to have major logistics problems that would likely lead to the collapse that we are seeing now? Units have a fixed input and output range where the input is usually gas and the output is usually miles/time, I would think that it's not that difficult to model how this was all going to go down. Maybe I am just naive because I claim residence to a military that has a small country attached to it (usa)
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Mar 27, 2022 05:45
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Djarum posted:
There is a lot of suspicion that quite a bit of Transnistria's economy is smuggling stuff out of giant Soviet stores they have sitting around.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:46
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Young Freud posted:They also liberated the villages in Poltavka and Malynivka in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. i don't see how this could be correct, it seems decently behind previous russian lines with no build up at all with no lead up at all?
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Mar 27, 2022 05:47
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Thanks for the info on how NATO gets the Warsaw pact weapons. I assumed (incorrectly) that the old Warsaw pact stuff would be destroyed or sold off as it was replaced with NATO spec gear.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:48
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cr0y posted:Was I dreaming or did someone post something in this thread before The invasion even occurred that basically laid out how Russia was going to have major logistics problems that would likely lead to the collapse that we are seeing now? Units have a fixed input and output range where the input is usually gas and the output is usually miles/time, I would think that it's not that difficult to model how this was all going to go down. Maybe I am just naive because I claim residence to a military that has a small country attached to it (usa) You MIGHT be thinking of this article from 2021, which lays out Russia's logistical challenges in an offensive war. Interestingly, it notes that its greatest likelihood of success in a NATO war would be small scale fait accomplis - attacking the Baltics, say, seizing just enough that they can comfortably resupply and defend it, and then just holding there and daring NATO to do much about it. Which given some of the relatively recent thread discussion is an interesting callback I think.
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Mar 27, 2022 05:51
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MikeC posted:If the Russians (big if) do manage to say carve out the self-declared boundaries for Donetsk and Luhansk and/or maybe take Kharkiv, the fact that Kherson is no longer in their hands is irrelevant. Yeah that's complete bullshit. Holding major cities is extraordinarily relevant for geopolitical and border negotiation purposes, particularly cities you can "give back" to settle a border, regardless of which particular other objectives have also been achieved. Negotiators will look at the whole picture. It's also going to look extremely bad for Russia from a morale/optics perspective if Ukraine can claim they are retaking cities. Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Mar 27, 2022 |
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Mar 27, 2022 05:53
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OddObserver posted:There is a lot of suspicion that quite a bit of Transnistria's economy is smuggling stuff out of giant Soviet stores they have sitting around. I have zero doubt that is true. If you have ever seen the movie “Lord of War” the parts after the fall of the Soviet Union are based on very real stories. Everyone and their grandma were trying to buy whatever they could then. The US government went into overdrive to buy and secure the nuclear weapons immediately because it was a very, very real possibility that someone could buy nukes up and sell them on the open market. Officially all of the former Soviet nukes are accounted for but there has always been worries that wasn’t the case. Granted I think if a rogue element got ahold of any in the last thirty plus years they would have used them or at least shown that they had them. But it was still a very real concern up through the 00s of a rogue Soviet nuclear or chemical weapon being used.
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Mar 27, 2022 06:00
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Delthalaz posted:Right but wouldn’t Russian military leaders, who presumably grew up in a country that included Ukraine, be pretty familiar with it? Apparently not
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Mar 27, 2022 06:11
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