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eke out
Feb 24, 2013



PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Posting this because it looks like some here bought into the BS.

This is a great video for debunking the myth that the Russians are just playing some sort've long con here and are purposely sandbagging things:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0

Its about a half hour long but its surprisingly good and the guy explains things well even if you don't know crap about military stuffs.

Yeah, what Perun's been putting out has been solid. I followed this guy because he was a really good Dominions player because he's some kind of professional diplomat type in real life and it's wild watching him transition to very serious military explainers instead of silly video games.

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Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

KitConstantine posted:

Oh my loving god how does he say this poo poo with a straight face
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1509179506359255053?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA

Edit: And immediately after that tweet was this one
https://twitter.com/AndrKolesnikov/status/1509179274326069255?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA
Translation of original tweet:
Is it what that video actually says? Or someone mind translating the video?
I am sure it's something crazy and dumb, but that original tweet is also making fun of it.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

sleep sleep sleep
fly fly post post
sleep sleep sleep

KitConstantine posted:

Cast your mind back to March 2nd, when Russian planes violated Swedish airspace. "oh, they just hosed up navigating, or it was one of their standard provocations" was the consensus.

Sooooo a little more serious than usual, perhaps :stare:

What the gently caress are they doing?

Play
Apr 25, 2006

Strong stroll for a mangy stray
It's absolutely hilarious that the Russians tried to call a clear withdrawal/repositioning of troops as some kind of peace effort. Absolutely laughable.

I wish more people would tune in to the fact that if something is said by Putin or anyone else in the Russian government, there is about a 95 percent chance that it is a straight up lie. They are constant, blithe liars.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I’m with the outhouse gang here, it’s a perfectly normal way to take a poo poo if you live in the neck of the woods. In a Russia where wealth is distributed equally, plenty of people would still poo poo in outhouses.

It might be 'normal' and perfectly fine to do so, but thinking that most people would rather poo poo out in the cold into a pit if they had another option seems silly and a little paternalistic. They should have the option, they don't because most of the money in Russia is sucked up by oligarchs and criminals and much of the rest is lost to corruption. Not to mention that that's only one effect of lack of running water, plumbing is something that a country as 'powerful' as Russia should be able to provide to all their people.

Plus having paved roads (without pot holes so large they aren't navigable) is generally quite useful for all sorts of things.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

KitConstantine posted:

But what's really interesting is that Ukraine got a missile there in the first place. That's an area that's been occupied since 2014 where Russia should theoretically have anti-air coverage. Given that this is supposed to be the primary Russian attack axis moving forward it doesn't bode well.

Ballistic missiles are very hard to defend against.

kemikalkadet
Sep 16, 2012

:woof:

CommieGIR posted:

Ah yes, the world jewry. :thunk:

Its amazing how these Right Wing talking points are constantly projections.

The replies on VK by Russians to the news that they were pulling back from Kyiv were absolutely full of anti-jewish comments. Lots of cope and wailing about defeat and betrayal but also a lot of anti-jewish stuff:

source

kemikalkadet fucked around with this message at 16:55 on Mar 30, 2022

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

What is the supposedly ironic term

Judeo-Bandera

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Posting this because it looks like some here bought into the BS.

This is a great video for debunking the myth that the Russians are just playing some sort've long con here and are purposely sandbagging things:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0

Its about a half hour long but its surprisingly good and the guy explains things well even if you don't know crap about military stuffs.

Doesn't matter if they're flat out nuts.

Its still incredibly unsustainable. Most military units start to fall apart and become useless with around 50% losses. Which means even if Putin gives no fucks how many die his military in the Ukraine will still start to become useless in the field within a couple of months with loss rates like that.

Perun doesn't usually do real life stuff but his vids on this conflict have been good work.

Gejnor
Mar 14, 2005

Fun Shoe

KitConstantine posted:

Cast your mind back to March 2nd, when Russian planes violated Swedish airspace. "oh, they just hosed up navigating, or it was one of their standard provocations" was the consensus.

Sooooo a little more serious than usual, perhaps :stare:

loving cowards, all they have are their damned nukes.

Gejnor fucked around with this message at 16:59 on Mar 30, 2022

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

KitConstantine posted:

Oh my loving god how does he say this poo poo with a straight face
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1509179506359255053?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA

Edit: And immediately after that tweet was this one
https://twitter.com/AndrKolesnikov/status/1509179274326069255?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA
Translation of original tweet:

God I love watching them (RF forces duh) get their poo poo pushed in. That said not a great time to be a Jew in Russia…as if it ever was.

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Marshal Prolapse posted:

God I love watching them (RF forces duh) get their poo poo pushed in. That said not a great time to be a Jew in Russia…as if it ever was.

I mean, you straight up having people's doors labelled with the Z and their images pasted everywhere. How long until they just start rounding up people in Russia.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Cimber posted:

Well, there is that far right/neo-nazi Azov brigade that is nominally part of the Ukrainian forces, so they have lumped that small minority in with the larger UA.

Even this is just bullshit. Once it was incorporated into the national guard in like 2020(?), it was filled with volunteers and reassigned troops from other units. There's like a handful of far-right ideologues from the original formation from the 2014 war. The founder left years ago.

It's all Russian propaganda.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Kavros posted:

What the gently caress are they doing?

This would explain why there's so much coming out today about Finland considering joining NATO - Denmark apparently just said they would support them for membership. From everything I've read it sounds like if Finland joins Sweden will, so I assume they've been sharing info including about the 'taking the nukes out for a flight' incident.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1509156746543210502?s=20&t=RKwaPoewM413T2ffsgeIPg
Also Norway commented today on the possibility of them joining:
https://twitter.com/Atl_Comm/status/1509193697543532546?s=20&t=RKwaPoewM413T2ffsgeIPg

superjew
Sep 5, 2007

No fair! You changed the outcome by measuring it!
Such an interesting part of the right wing cycle, the "The Jews are the Real Nazis" arc.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Tesseraction posted:

It auto-translates to "Jew-Banderite" as in a Jewish follower of Bandera's nazi-sympathising nationalism.

it's the ж word which about allegories with the K word in modern parlance. Used to be accepted term and you see it in classic literature but its just a slur now.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
https://twitter.com/nsdc_ua/status/1509199357085720581?s=21&t=yZDhJCPy__c_9TE-QklOYQ

CommieGIR posted:

I mean, you straight up having people's doors labelled with the Z and their images pasted everywhere. How long until they just start rounding up people in Russia.

Yeah, it’s going to get a lot worse, before it gets any better.

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

KitConstantine posted:

Cast your mind back to March 2nd, when Russian planes violated Swedish airspace. "oh, they just hosed up navigating, or it was one of their standard provocations" was the consensus.

Swedish media today:
https://twitter.com/balticjam/status/1509186441263423493?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA
Translation of the article:

Sooooo a little more serious than usual, perhaps :stare:

Is that report remotely reliable? It just seems like an insane escalation if so.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

It feels like there's been a bit of deliberate slow ratcheting of the rhetoric around NATO in Finland to test that the public mood on this.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1508728567252889603

CommieGIR
Aug 22, 2006

The blue glow is a feature, not a bug


Pillbug

Alchenar posted:

It feels like there's been a bit of deliberate slow ratcheting of the rhetoric around NATO in Finland to test that the public mood on this.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1508728567252889603

It cannot be emphasized enough, even if Finland does not do this, how much Putin has absolutely hosed himself geopolitically with his 4-D chess.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

FishBulbia posted:

it's the ж word which about allegories with the K word in modern parlance. Used to be accepted term and you see it in classic literature but its just a slur now.

Yeah, I'm guessing machine-translate is softening the term and wondered if it was an allegory to the English k-word, so cheers for confirming.

Gejnor
Mar 14, 2005

Fun Shoe

ImpAtom posted:

Is that report remotely reliable? It just seems like an insane escalation if so.

Its typical for Russia, honestly, they wouldn't dare try this poo poo near any NATO nation, but since we're not they think they can intimidate us away from it by showing how insane they are.

Yeah. No. Pretty sure they just made NATO membership all that much more of a certainty for us.


loving Clowns.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Burning up 35-40K soldiers in a month is unsustainable for nearly any offensive army anywhere.

Defensive force losses can be different but that isn't the sort of war Russia is fighting here.

They've also lost or had blown up a whole lot of their good equipment too. Some of it fairly cutting edge. As far as anyone can tell they've already sent their best soldiers and best equipped. What they have left is varying degrees of mediocre to flat out bad troops.

Yeah. Russian replacements are going to come in at a lower level of training using equipment that was obsolete 20-30 years ago. I'm not sure there's a great analogy. The North Korean army is probably more capable right now by a good measure. The Iranian Republican Guards almost certainly so. Meanwhile, 20 Territorial Defense Brigades are being mobilized (some mobilizations seem to be complete) and are continuing to be equipped with the best equipment in the world for light infantry formations.

It would not surprise me at all if Ukraine had a few dozen pilots training on F-16s someplace quietly just in case NATO ever agrees to lend-lease them. If they had the chance to do so, it may be worth doing as a form of reverse-insurance.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

Alchenar posted:

It feels like there's been a bit of deliberate slow ratcheting of the rhetoric around NATO in Finland to test that the public mood on this.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1508728567252889603

There has never been a better time for a country not called Ukraine to apply for NATO membership than right now. There is literally nothing Russia can do about it.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

ImpAtom posted:

Is that report remotely reliable? It just seems like an insane escalation if so.

Someone from Sweden should probably weigh in but it's mainstream Swedish media and while the Swedish military didn't confirm the report they also didn't deny it.

organburner
Apr 10, 2011

This avatar helped buy Lowtax a new skeleton.

This is just anecdata but I just got a call from someone doing a poll asking my age and if I think Finland should join NATO, if Finland should join even if Sweden doesn't and if I think that Finland will be under Russian attack in the coming years.
This was done on behest of YLE, the Finnish national broadcaster.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
It's just sort of stunning how fundamentally they seem to just *not understand* how the mindsets of people in western democracies work

Like mafia underlings trying to take over Tombstone and just not understanding at all what's going on, an out of context problem

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Hieronymous Alloy posted:

What is the supposedly ironic term

Tesseraction posted:

It auto-translates to "Jew-Banderite" as in a Jewish follower of Bandera's nazi-sympathising nationalism.

J*deo-Banderites, where the former is a Russian slur for a Jewish person.

Charlz Guybon posted:

Looks like there were at least 4,794 postumus orders of courage issued on March 3rd. So, there were at least that many KIA by that date.

https://informnapalm.org/en/medal-count-osint-analysis-of-real-russian-losses-for-the-first-week-of-hostilities-in-ukraine/

Jesus loving Christ.

KitConstantine posted:

But what's really interesting is that Ukraine got a missile there in the first place. That's an area that's been occupied since 2014 where Russia should theoretically have anti-air coverage. Given that this is supposed to be the primary Russian attack axis moving forward it doesn't bode well.

Well, they’ve hit with a Tochka a Russian airfield 10km inside Russia, behind Donetsk-Russia border.

KitConstantine posted:

Edit: And immediately after that tweet was this one
https://twitter.com/AndrKolesnikov/status/1509179274326069255?s=20&t=YHDBxBrzRyNYvZOtldH8YA
Translation of original tweet:

That text is ironic, by the way. The Russian general just says that on the day after Zelenskyy’s speech before Knesset, nationalists were filmed receiving weapons and military supplies from the synagogue.

alex314 posted:

Median salary for Russia I could find was 110.000 RUB per month.

Where did you look? April 2021 median was 40k roubles.

Tesseraction posted:

One thing I've noticed is that there seems to be little audible difference between "nazi" and "nationalist" when I'm listening to e.g. Lavrov in that recently posted tweet. The terms are basically being used interchangeably and explains why you sometimes hear them talk about Ukrainian Nazis and other times Ukrainian Nationalists in English-translated reports on what Russia has claimed.

It’s “natsist” for Nazi and “natsionalist” for nationalist.

SpiritOfLenin
Apr 29, 2013

be happy :3


Alchenar posted:

It feels like there's been a bit of deliberate slow ratcheting of the rhetoric around NATO in Finland to test that the public mood on this.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1508728567252889603

it should be noted that this guy is notorious for talking poo poo on twitter, and a member of the finnish far right (i'm not fully certain why he is the head of the foreign affairs committee, but he is in the opposition, not in the government. its an advisory body as far as I've understood it). however, it certainly seems like finland is on the cusp of sending an application to join NATO based on the general mood among the people and the political parties - earlier today the president stated in an interview, that he thinks the general opinion among finns is provably that we would want to go to NATO right now based on multiple recent gallups, so a referendum wouldn't be necessary, and that he thinks two thirds of our parliament would vote for joining NATO right now.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

Okay, so now in you own words, a premeditated transition period is not a transition period. It was a transition period because it was a state between a beginning (not being an EU member with full rights) ended after a while when the end (being an EU member with full rights) was reached. What would you describe as a transition period?

The whole point, which for some reason you seem to expend every effort in the world of misunderstanding or denying is:

Any pretense that EU membership is a binary choice between "100% not a member" and "100% full membership from day 1" is proven wrong by the historical existence of transition periods, such as the one for Eastern European countries in the early 2000s. This does not mean that I'm endorsing those or implying that they should be permanent.

A similar case can be made for NATO and the exceptions that are allowed for some countries.

The bottom line is that Ukraine is neither in the EU nor NATO because those organizations don't want to have it instead of it being the only possible logical consequence of their respective rules.

:psyduck: I feel like you’re not reading anything I post, and simply imagine what could be a really stupid thing I could hypothetically reply to you with.

What I’m saying is that transition period is exactly that, a transition period. Therefore, treatment during a transition period to me does not qualify as an exception to the rule, which is what I thought you implied with Eastern Europeans being mistreated as an exception to the rights EU citizens are normally entitled to. I was literally just pointing at the semantics of language you used to describe rights of Hungarians or whomever else you thought of during their transition period in the accession - the treatment is normal, because weren’t fully in EU yet. Whereas you said it was some kind of exceptions made for them, in negative connotation.

Neither did I claim that EU membership is binary with regards to rights - I’m well aware of various carveouts and exemptions that U.K. did enjoy, or Denmark currently does.

Likewise, I have never said that it’s impossible for Ukraine to be in EU, only that there are written NATO rules adjacent to the Washington Treaty that prevent its NATO membership as is, under the implicit assumption that NATO doesn’t want to change those rules for Ukraine.

Captain Scandinaiva
Mar 29, 2010



KitConstantine posted:

Someone from Sweden should probably weigh in but it's mainstream Swedish media and while the Swedish military didn't confirm the report they also didn't deny it.

It's probably true. It has happened before at Gotland specifically.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

Marshal Prolapse posted:

That said not a great time to be a Jew in Russia…as if it ever was.

I think we can attribute Israel's attempt to play it cautious to this. When it gets bad, the Jews go first.

Marshal Prolapse
Jun 23, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

the popes toes posted:

I think we can attribute Israel's attempt to play it cautious to this. When it gets bad, the Jews go first.

Oh yeah I figured that’s the main and only real reason.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Chilichimp posted:

There has never been a better time for a country not called Ukraine to apply for NATO membership than right now. There is literally nothing Russia can do about it.
In terms of Russian capabilities it's not really any different is it? They were never gonna conventionally invade Finland or Sweden, all they could do was threaten nukes, which is the same thing they can do now.

Crow Buddy
Oct 30, 2019

Guillotines?!? We don't need no stinking guillotines!

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

It's just sort of stunning how fundamentally they seem to just *not understand* how the mindsets of people in western democracies work

Like mafia underlings trying to take over Tombstone and just not understanding at all what's going on, an out of context problem

It is incredibly scary that we are this level of cultural/political missing context between some of our nuclear capable societies. (And if Russia has pegged us THIS wrong, have we similarly pegged them wrong too?)

I can guess (with a heightened awareness of who loving knows anymore) at the reason they would provoke like that. How they cannot realize their expected outcome is the least likely to occur is baffling, and the exact opposite is almost guaranteed.

It is going to be VERY exciting times for the next few years as we watch this lack of context drive miscalculations and geo-political brinksmanship.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Cicero posted:

In terms of Russian capabilities it's not really any different is it? They were never gonna conventionally invade Finland or Sweden, all they could do was threaten nukes, which is the same thing they can do now.
In principle Russia could have put the 190k or so guys they sent into Ukraine on the Finnish border but right now those guys are both in Ukraine (and cannot teleport) and are getting their asses kicked, weakening their deterrent effect in both short term and long term ways.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Cicero posted:

In terms of Russian capabilities it's not really any different is it? They were never gonna conventionally invade Finland or Sweden, all they could do was threaten nukes, which is the same thing they can do now.

Well the difference in NATO is three nuclear nations are obligated to retaliate.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

ImpAtom posted:

Is that report remotely reliable? It just seems like an insane escalation if so.

If that report is accurate, it says it occurred on March 2. It's just more bullshit posturing from Putin to show he's a big tough guy

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Play posted:

It might be 'normal' and perfectly fine to do so, but thinking that most people would rather poo poo out in the cold into a pit if they had another option seems silly and a little paternalistic. They should have the option, they don't because most of the money in Russia is sucked up by oligarchs and criminals and much of the rest is lost to corruption. Not to mention that that's only one effect of lack of running water, plumbing is something that a country as 'powerful' as Russia should be able to provide to all their people.

I don’t think that majority would want to poo poo in an outhouse. I simply don’t find someone making GBS threads in an outhouse incredulous, and I’ve got a decent amount of awareness of how much money does it cost to install plumbing into a private house not built for plumbing, versus what Russians can afford, or what rural Eastern Europeans would consider a frugal spending decision when they’ve lived with making GBS threads in an outhouse up until that decision point.

Chilichimp posted:

Once it was incorporated into the national guard in like 2020(?)

2014.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

cinci zoo sniper posted:

:psyduck: I feel like you’re not reading anything I post, and simply imagine what could be a really stupid thing I could hypothetically reply to you with.

You're projecting something there that you do to some people in this thread, not just me.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

What I’m saying is that transition period is exactly that, a transition period. Therefore, treatment during a transition period to me does not qualify as an exception to the rule, which is what I thought you implied with Eastern Europeans being mistreated as an exception to the rights EU citizens are normally entitled to. I was literally just pointing at the semantics of language you used to describe rights of Hungarians or whomever else you thought of during their transition period in the accession - the treatment is normal, because weren’t fully in EU yet. Whereas you said it was some kind of exceptions made for them, in negative connotation.

Neither did I claim that EU membership is binary with regards to rights - I’m well aware of various carveouts and exemptions that U.K. did enjoy, or Denmark currently does.

Likewise, I have never said that it’s impossible for Ukraine to be in EU, only that there are written NATO rules adjacent to the Washington Treaty that prevent its NATO membership as is, under the implicit assumption that NATO doesn’t want to change those rules for Ukraine.

My original post was not responding to you, but for some reason you jumped on it as if I had been. I had responded to the notion (NOT FROM YOU) that Ukraine can't be in the EU or NATO because of their rules.

I used the word "exception" only in a NATO context. Re-read what I wrote.

I also never wrote about Hungarians specifically or even used the word "Hungarians".

It's not all about you, and it's not necessary to jump on people's posts like that, like I'm seeing you do in other cases as well.

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coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


KitConstantine posted:

Cast your mind back to March 2nd, when Russian planes violated Swedish airspace. "oh, they just hosed up navigating, or it was one of their standard provocations" was the consensus.

Sooooo a little more serious than usual, perhaps :stare:

Even if it's deliberate posturing, it's theatrical and not very serious.

The nuclear weapons that could kill us all are safe inside of undetectable submarines. You only fly them in planes to show them off, not because it helps you to use them.

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