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Tomn posted:I'm actually kinda concerned about the future after this war. Like back in WW2 one of the big things was delivering a total defeat to the Axis powers to prevent any future "stab in the back" myths like from WW1, making it absolutely, entirely, and completely crystal clear that they lost, they lost hard, and that ultimately the future they were fighting for was a pretty twisted one - and that wasn't possible without completely and utterly destroying the armed forces of the Axis and totally occupying the nation to both impose terms and to provide access to worldwide news about what the hell was actually happening outside of state propaganda. You're not wrong at all, I've been having similar thoughts. What's more, "Western" societies are undergoing great social and political upheavals and polarization at the moment, and this process is likely to only gain traction as the years and decades go by. Authoritarian or totalitarian societies like Russia will face their own challenges, but by and large they are able to suppress any popular discontent against them. History has proven me wrong on this before, but to me the Russian system, despite all its weaknesses, also feels very durable; Putin has legions of his personal bodyguards and is willing to throw 2 000 - 3 000 protesters to jail over a weekend over them... calling for the cessation of war hostilities in a neighboring country. The single most powerful democracy in the world, the United States (I'm not American just so we're clear), is teetering on the edge of losing that very democracy. It has two parties, one of which is increasingly pro-Russian and while pro-NATO members remain in the party, younger ones trend authoritarian and pro-Putin even. Climate change will massively disrupt Western societies and feed discontent and could bring strongmen of our own to power. Meanwhile Russia under Putin and his successor can just... crush discontent and silence thousands. It just feels like a never ending chess or boxing match and I kind of feel like time could be on the authoritarian team's side. Hopefully I'm overlooking some resiliencies of Western democracies; to be sure, they allow the voice of the "people" to be heard much louder, but a great amount of our elites are not interested in listening. I am kind of a pessimist by nature though. Yeah, this is a good snipe. Happy Friday everyone. Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Apr 1, 2022 |
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Apr 1, 2022 16:29
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MikeC posted:Oh poo poo, Ivankiv is in Ukranian hands according to these guys (MFA). Goon wet dreams of encirclement come true! They ought to have bagged some Russians. I suspect most Russian troops got out. The reports from last night are that there were massive convoy of at least 700 vehicles withdrawing north. They were shelled the whole time as they went through Ivankiv, but the fire wasn't very dense and intact vehicles just went past the destroyed ones to escape. There might be rearguards that were left behind to shield the evacuation, but if there are they were troops the Russians have essentially written off. I suspect that the Ukrainians are going to find nothing but some abandoned/destroyed equipment and a whole bunch of mines as they clear the area.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:32
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Alchenar posted:They could have evacuated the pocket... but a withdrawal in the face of the enemy is literally the most difficult thing to try to do in a war, so it would imply a fairly significant increase in Russian C&C. Hmm, the General Staff just released their public Operations report and it doesn't include then Ivankiv story. Maybe someone jumped the gun or they just pulled out of the town centre but the road remains open.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:33
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Kazakhstan using some very firm language here https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1509914862247464968?t=G0-fh3f4AE-n_QCfzCRO4Q&s=19 This would be a pretty big shift in policy.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:35
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KitConstantine posted:... It's a Kyiv newspaper. They would identify the country the Parliament is in if it wasn't Ukrainian, most likely. But since they're a Ukrainian paper in Ukraine it's just "Parliament" to them. I knew which parliament was being referred to here. The confusing part was who was losing their stuff. Makes more sense now. e: KitConstatine beat me to what I was going to post next.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:37
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https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1509913543507947526?t=tP6f0Rw8dh24u1ns2gEJGg&s=19 Kazakhstan wants none of this and current post-revolt administration is probably very comfortable under China protection.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:38
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Now for my very first post in the c-spam war thread, hope it goes ok. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 1, 2022 16:41
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https://twitter.com/Sierra__Alpha/status/1509902871986417668?cxt=HHwWiMC9obGqoPQpAAAA
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Apr 1, 2022 16:42
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KitConstantine posted:... It's a Kyiv newspaper. They would identify the country the Parliament is in if it wasn't Ukrainian, most likely. But since they're a Ukrainian paper in Ukraine it's just "Parliament" to them. Well, they could have written "Verkhovna Rada" but that has its own problems for an English-speaking audience.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:42
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KitConstantine posted:Kazakhstan using some very firm language here How are u posted:Now for my very first post in the c-spam war thread, hope it goes ok. this isn't the c-spam war thread you're looking for
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Apr 1, 2022 16:44
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Oh, I see. Got me with that one.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:47
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mobby_6kl posted:this isn't the c-spam war thread you're looking for But the forum name says C-SPAM!
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Apr 1, 2022 16:47
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I mean yesterday they shot down one of the helicopters that managed to land in Mariupol and got destoyed on the way back. Obviously all pro-Russians channels will sell it as "we let them fly in, load up with generals and then shoot it down" instead of our AA sucks and we just afterwards spotted it. Probably same with the Belgorod attack.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:49
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:But the forum name says C-SPAM! goddammit I hate April Fools' Day
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Apr 1, 2022 16:49
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mobby_6kl posted:Theye said the'll not recognize the DNR nonsense pretty early on. I dunno if China has anything to do with it because China seems to be pushing the russian line here. China is Kazakhstan new daddy getting a lot of sweet sweet crude oil from them, which means Russia can't force them what to do.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:50
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mobby_6kl posted:Theye said the'll not recognize the DNR nonsense pretty early on. I dunno if China has anything to do with it because China seems to be pushing the russian line here. It doesn't really have to be China pushing them or encouraging them to act a certain way, if Kazakhstan has gotten closer ties with China that gives Kazakhstan much more freedom of action and leverage in their relationship with Russia more or less as a matter of course.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:52
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GABA ghoul posted:Don't really give a poo poo as long as everyone in Europe is safe from these assholes through collective defense. Let them rot in their fascist shithole until it all comes crashing down again from the rot and grift like the Soviet Union did. It's just another Belarus/Iran/North Korea/Zimbabwe in the world now. I still have no idea why people are so rabidly mad about NATO existing. Yeah, it's not great for Russia to have it on their doorstep geopolitically, but they had decades to make the case that they were a reasonable neighbor and they spent it loving with their neighbors. Neighboring nations joining so they can be safe from harm just makes sense.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:52
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mobby_6kl posted:Theye said the'll not recognize the DNR nonsense pretty early on. I dunno if China has anything to do with it because China seems to be pushing the russian line here. I think the countries currently under the umbrella of Russia are looking for a new partner now that they see Russia being nothing more than a paper tiger, which is where I believe the poster you quoted may be coming from. If you're under the protection/alliance/whatever you call it with a country who's supposed to have an army, and they're being bogged down by a country with a supposedly inferior military force, you're probably looking for something else that can offer you at least a modicum of protection. China may not be the best partner in the long term, but if you're not looking to establish ties with western countries, I suppose it's the best you can do in the region, considering what's left. Or, you know, Russia becomes a Chinese satellite state and you go along for the ride. Seth Pecksniff fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Apr 1, 2022 |
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Apr 1, 2022 16:53
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whoa, time for cspam?  witches in Kyiv posted:
the witches are coming 
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Apr 1, 2022 16:54
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Deki posted:I still have no idea why people are so rabidly mad about NATO existing. The reason Russia doesn't want their neighbors joining a defense coalition is because they believe it is their right to gently caress with their neighbors with impunity. Being a good neighbor is self defeating in the same way "I want to be able to commit crimes without going to jail" isn't solved by "just don't commit crimes." The crimes are the point.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:56
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509701889956487176?s=20&t=62lVZoIDHwzL0DJrIbycug  Djarum posted:It's basically impossible to detect a couple helicopters flying at extreme low altitudes on radar. It would be very hard to get a missile lock on them with their AA systems at that altitude if they could detect it. If you had a AA gunner or a guy with a MANPAD ready and watching you could take them out but you have maybe 60-90 seconds of encounter time before they have bugged out. You add in that most of the locals and guards wouldn't have likely thought twice about seeing Mi-24s until they started firing upon the depot. By the time anyone could have done anything in retaliation they would be fence out.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:57
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Seth Pecksniff posted:I think the countries currently under the umbrella of Russia are looking for a new partner now that they see Russia being nothing more than a paper tiger, which is where I believe the poster you quoted may be coming from. If you're under the protection/alliance/whatever you call it with a country who's supposed to have an army, and they're being bogged down by a country with a supposedly inferior military force, you're probably looking for something else that can offer you at least a modicum of a strong army. Yeah I get that of course. I was just wondering why, if thye're now buddies with China, are they also not picking China's stance which seems to be that the war is cool and good. But as Randarkman said, it could be that China just gives them enough leverage over russia to stick it to them, without suffering consequences.
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Apr 1, 2022 16:59
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D34THROW posted:goddammit I hate April Fools' Day I dunno as creative pranks go, this one is pretty good.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:00
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:whoa, time for cspam? For a second, I actually thought that was an On the Silver Globe screengrab.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:05
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GABA ghoul posted:Don't really give a poo poo as long as everyone in Europe is safe from these assholes through collective defense. Let them rot in their fascist shithole until it all comes crashing down again from the rot and grift like the Soviet Union did. It's just another Belarus/Iran/North Korea/Zimbabwe in the world now. I mean the thing is, though, the more brain-poisoned you get the more likely you are to support aggressive actions even when there's little realistic chance of success. Collective defense might prevent anyone from getting conquered but it won't necessarily stop anyone from being invaded and that's gonna hurt even if they're beaten back. Plus, I'm not exactly happy about Russia being a continuing source of poisonous authoritarian influence in Western (and for that matter worldwide) media - the last thing we need is more Trumps popping up here and there. I just don't really like the idea of large, nuclear-armed neighbors steadily stewing in their own insanity over long periods of time. It's not really safe or stable, I think.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:06
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a podcast for cats posted:A propos of PR and public sentiment in Russia, this thread stood out a bit. Reposting the retweet for credibility, as Max Seddon usually is good on info: https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1509758798898118656?s=20&t=zO72qv7hIS13bg5mnEKLeg https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1509758806359781382?s=20&t=9LWr3NtKL7_ZYyCd6v8iAg I'm trying to give the average Russian the benefit of the doubt, but it's difficult when you see Russians seemingly cool with their country escalating the threat of nuclear war with millions of lives on the line. Wildeyes fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Apr 1, 2022 |
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Apr 1, 2022 17:11
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:whoa, time for cspam? They can fight Putin's witches:  https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/02/06/russian-witches-cast-spells-in-putins-support-video-a64420
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Apr 1, 2022 17:18
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Tomn posted:I mean the thing is, though, the more brain-poisoned you get the more likely you are to support aggressive actions even when there's little realistic chance of success. Collective defense might prevent anyone from getting conquered but it won't necessarily stop anyone from being invaded and that's gonna hurt even if they're beaten back. Plus, I'm not exactly happy about Russia being a continuing source of poisonous authoritarian influence in Western (and for that matter worldwide) media - the last thing we need is more Trumps popping up here and there. Yeah. This is the third iteration in a row, where the exact same thing happens with the Russian "empire". With this cycle we are near, but not yet on the total collapse stage but that will happen. Latest by if Putin dies without heir apparent. ...So it has to be Western countries that are the problem, not the Russia itself reinventing itself again and again as the rear end in a top hat neighbor.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:19
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Wildeyes posted:I'm trying to give the average Russian the benefit of the doubt, but it's difficult when you see Russians seemingly cool with their country escalating the threat of nuclear war with millions of lives on the line. Your average person has no idea what nuclear war entails. And tbf, ot's not like there's been a shortage of westerners on social media calling for WW3 for the past month either. But yeah, pretty weird seeing people announce so blatantly that "nuclear blackmail is cool, actually"
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Apr 1, 2022 17:22
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https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509925712635088899?s=20&t=dK0eyDleYvmMNYk3XfNCFQ
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Apr 1, 2022 17:22
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Tomn posted:I mean the thing is, though, the more brain-poisoned you get the more likely you are to support aggressive actions even when there's little realistic chance of success. Collective defense might prevent anyone from getting conquered but it won't necessarily stop anyone from being invaded and that's gonna hurt even if they're beaten back. Plus, I'm not exactly happy about Russia being a continuing source of poisonous authoritarian influence in Western (and for that matter worldwide) media - the last thing we need is more Trumps popping up here and there. i don't like it either and i think the war should be somehow ended soon, not dragged on forever. if there is any chance of just negotiating peace with the russians under conditions that are even halfway acceptable it should be done at some point, probably and hopefully not very long from now, putin will die. it might be better to wait for that than to fight russia endlessly while it becomes a stalinist state
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Apr 1, 2022 17:25
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Wildeyes posted:https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1509758798898118656?s=20&t=zO72qv7hIS13bg5mnEKLeg Most Russians aren't even in favor of Ukranian invasion though https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1509758813599150084 Also, I don't know where he gets the idea that if the war isn't over soon, Russia as a whole will decide it's an existential threat and that it'll warrant using nukes https://twitter.com/YudinGreg/status/1509758828962885643
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Apr 1, 2022 17:26
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https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1509844811930554369?cxt=HHwWgsCykez2hfQpAAAA
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Apr 1, 2022 17:27
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Kyiv update: Bucha is confirmed cleared, and with it the Russian presence around Kyiv is all but erased. https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1509929113993322499?s=20&t=ZWQDE6LyNqcLyeElRbOt2Q They took the time to mine a candy factory and poison it's products before leaving though. Bastards. https://twitter.com/EmineDzheppar/status/1509929316968243216?s=20&t=ZWQDE6LyNqcLyeElRbOt2Q Feel good closer on this topic: https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1509924535264550921?s=20&t=kBqKbxD3uDk-OVVGJ2nLeA Trains! More info on the actions of Belarusian anti-war partisans on the railways https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1509915151562063882?s=20&t=V9s9ujwS71gzukJY9mRnbQ Also a Telegraph article on the topic - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/31/belarus-railway-rebels-dare-stop-vladimir-putins-invasion-tracks/
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Apr 1, 2022 17:28
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Willo567 posted:
I think it's less of an existential threat of Russia as a country and more of an existential threat to the Russian state in its current form as run by Vladimir Putin and his cronies.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:31
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Good thead on Russian failure and how to analyse it: https://twitter.com/C_M_Dougherty/status/1509910414330638344
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Apr 1, 2022 17:33
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5+ billion a week. That's a lotta nuts! https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1509811226355941376?cxt=HHwWgIC-jfTT9vMpAAAA https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1509920649627815937?cxt=HHwWgsC-gZe1qPQpAAAA
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Apr 1, 2022 17:34
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:I think it's less of an existential threat of Russia as a country and more of an existential threat to the Russian state in its current form as run by Vladimir Putin and his cronies. I still don't think Russia is going to use any sort of nuke be it tactical or strategic unless NATO decides to directly intervene in the conflict by sending troops into Ukraine or they set up a no fly zone, both of which have been explicitly stated as not going to happen.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:36
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Willo567 posted:Also, I don't know where he gets the idea that if the war isn't over soon, Russia as a whole will decide it's an existential threat and that it'll warrant using nukes Probably from the people he's talking to. And I've heard plenty of generals and analysts, Russian and Western, mention the same concern. Should Russia keep getting backed into a corner like it is, it will see the ongoing economic situation as an existential threat. I would not go so far as to assume that they will actually use nukes, but Putin is clearly capable of making historically big mistakes, and I would agree the current situation already is an existential threat to Russia as it is today. I'm thinking the most likely extremely concerning situation would be Putin declaring the sanctions to be a blockade by the West, thus claiming it to be an act of war, and threatening nuclear retaliation. Which I believe would be a bluff, but I think we all expect Putin will soon be in a position where he will try almost anything to get the West to blink. He might ratchet up the threat by moving his nukes around in dangerous ways, strapping them to fighters and bombers and passing near NATO airspace. The sad thing about people in Moscow talking casually about nuclear blackmail is somehow they know why we fear nukes, but at the same time fail to realize should nukes be used every centimeter of Moscow would be subjected to multiple nuclear blasts. I don't think there's a bunker Putin could hide in that would save him if he was in the city at all.
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Apr 1, 2022 17:39
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C-SPAM  https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1509916089496526850 Tanks got bumped from 10k to 100k
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