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Atreiden posted:we know they get intelligence, you where saying NATO also coordinated stuff, which implies you don't think Ukrainians are smart enough to act on the intelligence they receive. Thats not what they were implying.
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Apr 14, 2022 13:20
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Atreiden posted:we know they get intelligence, you where saying NATO also coordinated stuff, which implies you don't think Ukrainians are smart enough to act on the intelligence they receive. Pouting about being called stupid is a new tactic deflecting the consequences of escalating proxy war. It'll probably prove quite useful.
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Apr 14, 2022 13:27
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MassiveSky posted:It's one thing to defend against ongoing domestic assault, but attacking targets in Russia or coordinating a strike against expensive warships with countermeasures is quite different. Yeah, the overall defense against an ongoing assault by functionally the entire Russian army is a much more complicated operation than hitting a single expensive warship in the local bathtub with brand new missiles meant to do exactly that, or crossing a line on a map to hit a fuel depot in Russia with some gunships flown by pilots already accustomed to operating under the Russian air defense umbrella.
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Apr 14, 2022 13:28
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cr0y posted:Did the Russia warship actually go gently caress itself? No, someone else hosed it with a couple of large, dick shaped objects moving close to the speed of sound. MassiveSky posted:Anyone else have a tiny, itsy-bitsy inkling that NATO is perhaps not only transmitting intelligence, but actively coordinating some of the fun stuff happening? Maybe although I think it's probably not having a huge impact compared to decisions Ukraine is making for themselves. Basically Ukraine is guaranteed to have a better understanding of the forces at their disposal than any NATO team, and as a consequence any coordination is probably taking place at the Ukrainian level based on the intel they are provided. Either way though, I'm not sure it's possible to prove and I don't think it's much of an escalation from providing intel which is essentially just "attack here" anyway. alex314 posted:At this point it doesn't sound like a good idea to send another irreplaceable ship to Black Sea with more info about NATO AShM planned to appear. If it's all about firing missiles from that direction then there are a bunch of supposedly good Russian bombers that can do that task. So now I'm looking forward to info about Russian Airforce losing Tu-22M or Tu-160. I have seen a few people mention that is was providing AA coverage for the south coast of Ukraine so Russia has essentially lost that quite valuable capability unless they move a S-300 system up from Crimea where it might get attacked by drones or artillery. If that is important to Russia and can't be achieved with their other ships in the fleet then they definitely would want to send a replacement ship into the Black Sea. Anyway, a potentially authoritative bit of info on what happened to the ship. Link to the original post is in the replies. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1514561198766886923
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Apr 14, 2022 13:36
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Warbadger posted:Yeah, the overall defense against an ongoing assault by functionally the entire Russian army is a much more complicated operation But it's not a single operation, is it? It's large scale tactics coordination. More complex? Sure, but acting on a time-window using combined arms/false flag operation to a single designated target is quite specialized. MassiveSky fucked around with this message at 13:39 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 13:37
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https://mobile.twitter.com/nycjim/status/1514575706881241093?cxt=HHwWisC9oZal7YQqAAAA
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Apr 14, 2022 13:39
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I think it's pretty clear that the Ukranian General Staff has had a better handle on their ability to fight and resist than anyone in Russia or NATO.
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Apr 14, 2022 13:39
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Kuule hain nussivan posted:False! We have the cheeses most sought after by Russia. Op meant "cheese", not "bland fungal mass designed to be a tasteless pile of fatty acids" /derail
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Apr 14, 2022 13:47
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OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/nycjim/status/1514575706881241093?cxt=HHwWisC9oZal7YQqAAAA Aww. I guess it's possible it's (still) floating since it wasn't hit with a torpedo. But I can't imagine that this isn't due to a missile stike, because somehow Ukraine knew about it before they did apparently.
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Apr 14, 2022 13:49
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MassiveSky posted:But it's not a single operation, is it? It's large scale tactics coordination. As to your larger point - no, there is nothing fundamentally different between the everyday engagements going on in this war and the examples you've given. In many ways lobbing a few missiles at a ship you're tracking with a drone is pretty simple compared to routine tactics being employed by the UA to ambush and destroy a convoy with precision fires and light infantry, operate an air force under Russian air defenses, or reclaim a village. Just because they took an opportunity to hit a big ship with their shiny new anti-shipping missiles meant to do exactly that does not mean they had to play 9D chess for which they needed American assistance. Also: False flag operation? What? Warbadger fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 13:53
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mobby_6kl posted:Aww. I guess it's possible it's (still) floating since it wasn't hit with a torpedo. But I can't imagine that this isn't due to a missile stike, because somehow Ukraine knew about it before they did apparently. Yeah when the timeline is "unconfirmed reports from Ukraine that they hit the ship" followed a few hours later by "Russia says there was an ammunition fire aboard the ship" I think it's pretty clear what happened
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Apr 14, 2022 13:56
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1514452470566641666
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Apr 14, 2022 14:12
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oh my god I can’t stop laughing https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1514499866394873858?s=21&t=l6DfNrXG2_YTzsZ530LzHQ because the main air defense radar can only see one way they flew the drone to the other side and kept shouting “look at me! look at me” while the neptunes snuck up from the other side and caved in the skull of the ship with a barstool
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Apr 14, 2022 14:16
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Sounds like the most likely scenario is that it was in danger of sinking but they managed to prevent that enough to tow it away. I doubt it makes very much difference at this point, it'll likely be damaged enough to be useless for the remainder of the war.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:17
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OddObserver posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/nycjim/status/1514575706881241093?cxt=HHwWisC9oZal7YQqAAAA my guess is its super hosed up but it can probably float when towed and poo poo. either way its out of the fight and probably wont be in fighting shape for at least this year.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:18
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Dapper_Swindler posted:my guess is its super hosed up but it can probably float when towed and poo poo. either way its out of the fight and probably wont be in fighting shape for at least this year. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1514500477525889025 E: unconfirmed rumours of Black Sea fleet admiral under arrest https://mobile.twitter.com/TekilaUa/status/1514527547555565577 Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 14:25 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 14:21
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Even if it didn't outright sink if the fire was big and uncontrolled enough (which it sounds like it may have been) it might still be headed for the scrapyard even if it's towed to port.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:21
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I'll note we're getting a lot of 'Telephone' problems with Turkey saying it rescued 50 sailors slowly turning into 'only 50 people made it off'. There were, presumably, plenty of Russian ships nearby as well. Also if the TB-2 theory is correct they didn't need any help from NATO- other than, possible, assistance with secure communication. Spot ship, program missile, shoot missile. Though NATO might've helped indirectly by identifying weaknesses of the ship or when it was at a vulnerable position, relatively. You certainly don't want to shoot one of your very few anti-ship missiles when they could accidentally lock onto a cargo ship instead.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:25
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OddObserver posted:FWIW Russia claims it's still afloat and being towed. I guess we will see soonish either way. "That's not an oil slick, it's victory wine."
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Apr 14, 2022 14:27
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I hope Russian Navy will try to rebuild the Moskva for prestige reasons and sink untold amount of cash into it.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:28
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Risky Bisquick posted:They may want to tow the husk to port to save face I remember reading something from an American who had been on a Slava class cruiser that there was a lot of very nice wood paneling on board which he thought would be a huge splinter hazard in case of a hit. It probably burns very well too.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:32
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evilweasel posted:oh my god I can’t stop laughing Why the gently caress would they not have 360 degrees of air search and target engagement radar? Put two of them on the ship of you have to. This is the most idiotic CIS and anti-missile/air system I’ve ever heard of on a ‘modern’ military vessel that needs to expect countering ASM attacks. There are so many loving scenarios in a modern naval battle where you could expect ASM approaches from multiple directions. Including missile misses due to ECM followed by requisition of the target, air fired ASMs, or being engaged by multiple surface or submarine opponents simultaneously from different directions.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:33
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the white hand posted:Pouting about being called stupid is a new tactic deflecting the consequences of escalating proxy war. It'll probably prove quite useful. This is not a proxy war. It doesn’t even come close to fitting that definition.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:36
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mobby_6kl posted:Aww. I guess it's possible it's (still) floating since it wasn't hit with a torpedo. But I can't imagine that this isn't due to a missile stike, because somehow Ukraine knew about it before they did apparently. The US says it’s still afloat, but Turkey (who actually rescued the Russian sailors), Bulgaria, and Ukraine still claim the ship has sunk. It doesn’t really matter though, the strategic effect on Russia is the same. Edit There is no guarantee a torpedo would have sunk the ship either, depending on type. The American Mk48 torpedo probably would have broken the keel—probably. Two Mk48 hits, however, would have absolutely sunk any ship afloat except maybe an American Gerald F Ford class super carrier. ZombieLenin fucked around with this message at 14:43 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 14:39
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I'll note we're getting a lot of 'Telephone' problems with Turkey saying it rescued 50 sailors slowly turning into 'only 50 people made it off'. There were, presumably, plenty of Russian ships nearby as well. Spotting a ship visually is super loving hard. And considering NATO have constant surveillance aircraft up around the conflict zone, with a frequent visitor being a UAV over the black sea, there is a good chance this happened based on western intelligence. No matter what, it's an impressive feat.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:40
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ZombieLenin posted:Why the gently caress would they not have 360 degrees of air search and target engagement radar? Put two of them on the ship of you have to. It does have smaller radars that have 360 degrees, but they would have a hard time picking up ASM in the rough weather.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:40
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alex314 posted:I hope Russian Navy will try to rebuild the Moskva for prestige reasons and sink untold amount of cash into it. I don't think they can unless the sanctions are lifted. Russia doesn't make much in the way of high-tech poo poo that is even remotely sophisticated, with just a few exceptions. Until now, their kleptocratic economic model has been: 1) Sell raw resources 2) Import whatever high-tech poo poo they can't make and have no interest in developing themselves for final assembly. 3) Spend the absolute bare minimum on required military and government services. 4) Putin and the oligarchs keep whatever is left over, which reinforces cost-cutting in 2 and 3 above. Rigel fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Apr 14, 2022 |
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Apr 14, 2022 14:42
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ZombieLenin posted:Why the gently caress would they not have 360 degrees of air search and target engagement radar? Put two of them on the ship of you have to. do you know how many dachas you can buy with the money for the second anti-air radar emplacement?????
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Apr 14, 2022 14:43
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ZombieLenin posted:Why the gently caress would they not have 360 degrees of air search and target engagement radar? Put two of them on the ship of you have to. it does have a separate 360-degree search radar, but, according to Twitter, that radar is intended for the short-range SA-8 missiles and the storm prevented the radar from determining which returns were wave crests and which were a 1-ton anti-ship missile.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:43
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I'll note we're getting a lot of 'Telephone' problems with Turkey saying it rescued 50 sailors slowly turning into 'only 50 people made it off'. There were, presumably, plenty of Russian ships nearby as well. OTOH, watching the https://globe.adsbexchange.com/ site, there are Global Hawks and AWACS planes that routinely fly over Bulgaria then mysteriously disappear (transponder is shut off), then reappear again a few hours later. They're spending most of their time out over the Black Sea. There's no question that NATO is giving them advanced radar and targeting information.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:43
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Charlz Guybon posted:It does have smaller radars that have 360 degrees, but they would have a hard time picking up ASM in the rough weather. yeah but, uh, ever since literally the dawn of naval aviation in wwii everyone has had the idea "attack the boat from two directions at once so it can't dodge" so how the gently caress do you put to sea in a boat that can only effectively see one way
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Apr 14, 2022 14:44
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I am a little sceptical of the two sides thing since, well, everything Ukrainian is gonna be to the North of it.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:46
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alex314 posted:I hope Russian Navy will try to rebuild the Moskva for prestige reasons and sink untold amount of cash into it. There will be a special operation to capture Mykolaiv and seize the Ukraina - a never finished Slava-class rotting docked up there.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:46
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Charlz Guybon posted:It does have smaller radars that have 360 degrees, but they would have a hard time picking up ASM in the rough weather. It wouldn’t have helped any either if those radars could not be used to guide she ships AA/AMS systems.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:48
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ZombieLenin posted:This is not a proxy war. It doesn’t even come close to fitting that definition. Interesting, can you say more about this? Supporting defenders can be a proxy war. Even if you agree with it, the US and other states are arming Ukraine and have a dog in this fight. What other conditions would you postulate for it to meet that condition?
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Apr 14, 2022 14:50
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CNN is reporting on Ukrainian claims that its special forces blew up a bridge while a Russian convoy was crossing it. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-14-22/h_1055bd497c145939be6cc7faa56a3ebf quote:Special-operations unit destroys bridge in Kharkiv region as Russian convoy crosses, claims Ukraine
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Apr 14, 2022 14:53
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the white hand posted:Interesting, can you say more about this? Supporting defenders can be a proxy war. Even if you agree with it, the US and other states are arming Ukraine and have a dog in this fight. What other conditions would you postulate for it to meet that condition? the only real debate over if its a 'proxy war' or not is, mostly, an argument about the definition of a proxy war. some people define it as essentially suggesting the proxy has little ability to resist/willingness to resist absent the support of the relevant great power. i think everyone is very clear on the actual details of who is doing what (though perhaps not 100% clear on if ukraine would have been able to do as well as it has without the massive arms shipments, though it is abundantly clear they would still have fought as hard as they could), so arguments over if those facts meet the definition of proxy war is just arguing over the definition of proxy war, not over anything meaningful
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Apr 14, 2022 14:55
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Wild, that would make Afghanistan in the '80s not a proxy war. Fair enough.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:57
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the white hand posted:Interesting, can you say more about this? Supporting defenders can be a proxy war. Even if you agree with it, the US and other states are arming Ukraine and have a dog in this fight. What other conditions would you postulate for it to meet that condition? The traditional definition would be a proxy war is instigated by an outside power who is not directly involved. A lot of the "proxy war" talk has been from Russia et al trying to claim that NATO is the real aggressor and forced them to invade Ukraine by existing I guess. Which is why you'll get pushback. No one was pushing for Ukraine to go to war.
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Apr 14, 2022 14:58
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Risky Bisquick posted:E: unconfirmed rumours of Black Sea fleet admiral under arrest Arresting leaders when things go wrong is a well known sign of a working military. (That said, I'm holding off on believing this one until we get confirmation).
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Apr 14, 2022 14:59
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