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gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Sri.Theo posted:

What AA weaponry is ideal to shoot down bayraktars or even smaller commercial drones for scouting? Presumably missiles would be a waste as they cost more than the drone.

Shooting down something like a TB2 is definitely worthwhile because not only do they cost millions they can inflict significant damage if allowed to operate unhindered.

Shooting down smaller drones with expensive missiles may not seem worthwhile at face value but if the $1,000 quadcopter drone flying around shining a laser designator at a bunch of expensive and critically important military equipment it would definitely be worth trying to hit it with a MANPADS or something.

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Shooting Blanks
Jun 6, 2007

Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade



Sri.Theo posted:

What AA weaponry is ideal to shoot down bayraktars or even smaller commercial drones for scouting? Presumably, missiles would be a waste as they cost more than the drone.

As pointed out, the value in shooting down a drone isn't a question of the cost of the missile vs. the drone, but a question of the cost of what you're defending vs. the missile.

gay picnic defence posted:

Shooting down something like a TB2 is definitely worthwhile because not only do they cost millions they can inflict significant damage if allowed to operate unhindered.

Shooting down smaller drones with expensive missiles may not seem worthwhile at face value but if the $1,000 quadcopter drone flying around shining a laser designator at a bunch of expensive and critically important military equipment it would definitely be worth trying to hit it with a MANPADS or something.

There's been a lot of talk about the viability of COTS drones vs. those designed by LockMart or whoever - but even the cheap ones can be impactful. Distributed drone swarms (video below) are going to be a very interesting game changer as militaries figure out how to deal with, both technologically and doctrinally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq1ud7CBOaU

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517015445404098561

Add another war crime to the pile

PegLegActual
Sep 11, 2001

Real Pirate. Real Amputee. Limping Through Life.
Hi folks,
I promised I'd update my situation if I was traveling to Ukraine.

I've accepted the International Legion's contract offer today via videoconference and will be landing in Warsaw next week. I needed to get my own situation straightened out before making the decision including trying to have a new prosthetic made before departure (not happening dammit).

I've got a meeting with the Warsaw embassy once I land and will then be meeting up with a very kind Goon helping on the border to arrange transportation. My destination at this point is Lviv where I've got a meeting with some local units and deliveries to make. From there...no idea yet.

Thank you all for keeping me updated on the war situation since this all began. We joke a lot about these old dead forums but it has been a really valuable source. As OPSEC permits, I will absolutely be keeping you updated here and via social media if mods permit.

Cheers.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Get some buddy.

Thanqol
Feb 15, 2012

because our character has the 'poet' trait, this update shall be told in the format of a rap battle.

Shooting Blanks posted:

There's been a lot of talk about the viability of COTS drones vs. those designed by LockMart or whoever - but even the cheap ones can be impactful. Distributed drone swarms (video below) are going to be a very interesting game changer as militaries figure out how to deal with, both technologically and doctrinally.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq1ud7CBOaU

Here's an interesting counterargument that drones are an evolutionary, not revolutionary threat. It's particularly coming from the naval context but a lot of the points are applicable to land.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Sri.Theo posted:

What AA weaponry is ideal to shoot down bayraktars or even smaller commercial drones for scouting? Presumably missiles would be a waste as they cost more than the drone.

Since they are flying slow and low, the good ol' AA autocannon with a sensitive radar and air burst ammunition should work. That, at least, is what Rheinmetall is betting on.

Mantis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xxcW8H1mfo

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1517038247460880384

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015


Didn't the ISW say that Russia was going to declare Mariupol fallen soon regardless of the actual situation at Azovstal?

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Youth Decay posted:

Didn't the ISW say that Russia was going to declare Mariupol fallen soon regardless of the actual situation at Azovstal?

"Shoigu said that the RF Armed Forces needed three to four days to complete work on Azovstal, where the militants were blocked.

According to him, now the entire Mariupol is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR, the DPR, the militants are securely blocked on the territory of the Azovstal plant."

"Putin called the storming of the Azovstal industrial zone in Mariupol inexpedient and ordered to cancel it. The President demanded to block the Azovstal industrial area so that "a fly does not fly through." Putin explained the cancellation of the assault on Azovstal by the considerations of saving the lives of the Russian military."

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

FishBulbia posted:

"Shoigu said that the RF Armed Forces needed three to four days to complete work on Azovstal, where the militants were blocked.

According to him, now the entire Mariupol is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR, the DPR, the militants are securely blocked on the territory of the Azovstal plant."

"Putin called the storming of the Azovstal industrial zone in Mariupol inexpedient and ordered to cancel it. The President demanded to block the Azovstal industrial area so that "a fly does not fly." Putin explained the cancellation of the assault on Azovstal by the considerations of saving the lives of the Russian military."

Ah yes, three to four days. Mariupol has been three or four days/hours from falling for the past month. Also if they can't assault Azovstal they're going to have a hell of a time blocking it, it's enormous.

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS

Can you summarize? Looks like the EU has collectively gotten twitter to locally censor RT's account

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

FishBulbia posted:

"Shoigu said that the RF Armed Forces needed three to four days to complete work on Azovstal, where the militants were blocked.

According to him, now the entire Mariupol is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR, the DPR, the militants are securely blocked on the territory of the Azovstal plant."

"Putin called the storming of the Azovstal industrial zone in Mariupol inexpedient and ordered to cancel it. The President demanded to block the Azovstal industrial area so that "a fly does not fly through." Putin explained the cancellation of the assault on Azovstal by the considerations of saving the lives of the Russian military."

Troop numbers must be pretty dire if they’re considering saving the lives of their own soldiers all of a sudden.

Demanding a blockade of the steel mill sounds like they’re laying down a challenge to Ukrainian helicopter pilots and their gigantic balls too.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Slashrat posted:

Can you summarize? Looks like the EU has collectively gotten twitter to locally censor RT's account



Nothing has actually changed. Shoygu said in a briefing that they control the city outside of Azovstal. Putin out of the kindness of his humanitarian heart said they'll just starve out the plant.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Lol "Mariupol is under control. Except the part that hasn't been for weeks and we' stopped trying"

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Maybe? but Turkey has never cared about that all that much and killing russian vehicles well is the entirety of the TB2's impressive online marketing campaign.

If they are in fact worried about that, lol that Ukraine just came out and said they used a TB2 in the sinking of the moskva

I remember reading that turkey asked to tone down the TB2 videos a few weeks in. Since Russia apparently complained about the drone deliveries maybe that makes sense. Maybe they are all shot down, who knows. Although we've had videos of them actually taking out Russian AA so :shrug:

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

You can almost smell the desperation of Russia trying to claim even the tiniest believable win

with a rebel yell she QQd
Jan 18, 2007

Villain


Kherson referendum set for April 27?

https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/4471271-yzvestna-data-provedenyia-referenduma-na-khersonschyne

quote:

the Russian occupiers are planning to hold a so-called "referendum" on the creation of the "Kherson People's Republic". New Kakhovka has already started printing ballots.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

FishBulbia posted:

"Shoigu said that the RF Armed Forces needed three to four days to complete work on Azovstal, where the militants were blocked.

According to him, now the entire Mariupol is under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR, the DPR, the militants are securely blocked on the territory of the Azovstal plant."

"Putin called the storming of the Azovstal industrial zone in Mariupol inexpedient and ordered to cancel it. The President demanded to block the Azovstal industrial area so that "a fly does not fly through." Putin explained the cancellation of the assault on Azovstal by the considerations of saving the lives of the Russian military."

I predicted that this might happen. There is nothing to be gained from clearing Azovstal, it's a side quest with difficult monsters and worthless loot. And since it's practically an island it's not hard to guard the perimeter.

The alternative would have been that Russian air force would just pummel the plant until it's pulverised, but maybe even that would be too costly for Russian AF's ammo stock and how much maintenance their bombers need after a bomb run.

And another side of the coin is that the defenders and civilians could be used as a bargaining chip later.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

mobby_6kl posted:

I remember reading that turkey asked to tone down the TB2 videos a few weeks in. Since Russia apparently complained about the drone deliveries maybe that makes sense. Maybe they are all shot down, who knows. Although we've had videos of them actually taking out Russian AA so :shrug:

People can learn from mistakes and improve tactics, as happened in Winter War after the initial failed assaults. But it'll be a long time before we know the full story rather than propaganda sniplets.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Nenonen posted:

I predicted that this might happen. There is nothing to be gained from clearing Azovstal, it's a side quest with difficult monsters and worthless loot. And since it's practically an island it's not hard to guard the perimeter.

The alternative would have been that Russian air force would just pummel the plant until it's pulverised, but maybe even that would be too costly for Russian AF's ammo stock and how much maintenance their bombers need after a bomb run.

And another side of the coin is that the defenders and civilians could be used as a bargaining chip later.

Yeah, it probably descends into a situation where the a bomber visits once or twice a day to drop one of those extra heavy bombs, a bit of shelling continues to keep up the pressure, and a group of lovely rear echelon troops guard the perimeter. I guess they need some sort of AA in the area to stop Ukraine resuming the resupply flights too.

The downside to this is it doesn't really degrade the defenders much and it seems like they're quite capable of launching attacks of their own even in their current circumstances. That could become a tad embarrassing if the 'under control' city suddenly sees an upsurge in Russian casualties because Azov decide to go on the attack.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin
https://twitter.com/CurrentTimeTv/status/1517043131983835137

Putin declares the storming of Azovstal pointless and orders a siege instead

This is remarkable because he is definitely the one looking at maps and giving orders on what to attack

Ties in nicely with people saying for years he doesn't give a poo poo about boring stuff like infrastructure, bad roads and logistics. He wants to point at a map and get victories and pretty borders and to go down in history as an emperor

Somaen fucked around with this message at 09:53 on Apr 21, 2022

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

Somaen posted:

https://twitter.com/CurrentTimeTv/status/1517043131983835137

Putin declares the storming of Azovstal pointless and orders a siege instead

This is remarkable because he is definitely the one looking at maps and giving orders on what to attack

Ties in nicely with people saying for years he doesn't give a poo poo about boring stuff like infrastructure, bad roads and logistics. He wants to point at a map and get victories and pretty border and to go down in history

We are in 2022. All of Mariopol is occupied by the Russians. All? No! Because a steel mill populated by irreducable Ukrainians still resists the invaders!


...and life will not be easy for Russian garrisons stationed around Azovstal, I bet. I hope they manage to evacuate as many people as possible.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1517054023802761219

What weird posture Putin has in this video.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Looks like the long table jokes finally got to him.

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars
If you google some older pictures of him, he slouches a lot, I wouldn't read much into it.

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!







Jesus he does not look good. Man needs a hug.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

Dwesa posted:

If you google some older pictures of him, he slouches a lot, I wouldn't read much into it.

I'll go with, "there's a button to trigger a trap door under Shoigu under the desk where his hand is, and Shoigu is leaning forward hoping to grab onto the desk if it's pressed," then.

DeeplyConcerned
Apr 29, 2008

I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!

CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:

You can almost smell the desperation of Russia trying to claim even the tiniest believable win

Don't worry, it's* all** under control***

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Dick Ripple posted:

Looks like the long table jokes finally got to him.

No no no, the table became so long that they’re sitting back-to-back, but sitting at the same table. It encircled the world at that latitude, obviously.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Beefeater1980 posted:

Jesus he does not look good. Man needs a hug.

You misspelled "bullet" as "hug"

Rinkles
Oct 24, 2010

What I'm getting at is...
Do you feel the same way?

D&D discussion in 5 years: My only point is that Kherson is in a more self-determined state as a part of Russia than it was as a part of Ukraine.

Vesi
Jan 12, 2005

pikachu looking at?

Beefeater1980 posted:

Jesus he does not look good. Man needs a hug.

it's spelled hague

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Vesi posted:

it's spelled hague

hanged

Ballbot5000
Dec 13, 2008

Fabricati diem, pvnc.


(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Ola
Jul 19, 2004


Somehow this perfectly encapsulates how loving weird state leaders can be.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Herstory Begins Now posted:

why wouldn't aa radar systems pick them up at all? Even beyond that, why else would you postulate that they aren't seeing heavy use

Not all of them, just the stuff that provides primary AA coverage, like S-300/S-400 systems and Buks - due to thin profile and lightweight, plastic construction of the drones. The short range systems like Tor, maybe Pantsyr (and maybe some EW poo poo) can get them, and so I would speculate that with much reduced surface area occupied by their troops, and thus increased density of deployments of actually threatening air defences, Ukraine may have to wait for Russian troops to overextend.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Also iirc uaf said they lost most of them in the first couple weeks

Again, can you link to any of this? Not doubting your words, I just really don’t remember poo poo like that actually happening.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

There're pictures of at least three TB2 wrecks and idk that they'd all be obviously in Russian controlled territory to the extent that people are comfortable just hopping in cars and driving off a couple of miles to try to find a small drone wreck. Ukraine only had "between 5 and 20 TB2s" at the start of the conflict (according to https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/ukraine-military-drones-russia.html so clearly a significant amount of their TB2s have been destroyed

That is a really bizarre estimate. We know that pre-war sales of TB2 to Ukraine were around 50 units, with 20ish delivered before March 2022, and they’ve also had further deliveries, e.g., on March 2. I don’t know how you get to 5 drone estimate at that point in time, unless you assume Russian claimed shootdowns to be an accurate number.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-03/ukraine-buys-more-armed-drones-from-turkey-than-disclosed-and-angers-russia

“At least two dozen orders are underway.”

Sri.Theo posted:

What AA weaponry is ideal to shoot down bayraktars or even smaller commercial drones for scouting? Presumably missiles would be a waste as they cost more than the drone.

Bayraktar-sized stuff just gets small missiles - the problem is having a radar that picks them up and tracks them well. The backpack-sized stuff is a hard problem to solve that people pour a lot of money into - currently the go to solution is to jam the gently caress out of them.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 11:17 on Apr 21, 2022

PerilPastry
Oct 10, 2012
Finish your plate first, Russian state TV

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1517043310069702661?s=20&t=dOI4XMiNEwuD2Q3mxYqStA

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

So, sounds like the defenders saying they were about to get overrun was a trick, but Putin didn't fall for it?

Incredible that they'd just tie up the 10 BTGs in Mariupol for an extended siege - it's practically begging Ukraine to break it.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Rinkles posted:

D&D discussion in 5 years: My only point is that Kherson is in a more self-determined state as a part of Russia than it was as a part of Ukraine.

there were prominent online leftists who were arguing that crimea was legitimately incorporated into russia following annexation because they had a 'referendum' following the euromaidan, just complete rubes

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Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars
"daddy Putin, pls invade NATO countries so I can visit my villa in Italy again"

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